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Andrews' Saturday and Sunday Daily Nap Lay
Andrews' Saturday and Sunday Daily Nap Lay
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Trusty there's got to be every chance now that SDS will be overbet, for as good as he has been (I think fantastic this season) this could start offering some value.
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Andrew - I did not have a bet as I know little about American racing - no, I know NOTHING about it!!!
However, because of your lay I had a look at it - on breeding, they ALL looked likely non stayers to me .....!! When you post a lay you usually give the horses that you have on your side - important, as you know, when laying .... In this case, I could find no mention of any of the opposition - just a thought and very best of luck today .... Anyway, your record since starting this thread is top class. Onwards and upwards. |
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Trusty/Striding,
Thanks for your input. I did look at the race, but i rarely lay SDS (almost an unwritten rule) and have to be confident to do so. He's come down in price by virtue of 4 NR's, but one to consider i guess. I don't want to post a lay just for the sake of it, i prefer that any lay is one i'm prepared to risk my own cash on. I have 2 others and one is at the right odds now, i'm just waiting to see if the other one follows suit. George, I think you may have misunderstood my comments with respect to Mirage Dancer. The point i was trying to make was Justify had only beaten a 101 rated listed winner by 1.75L and therefore the Belmont form is questionable. I used Mirage Dancer (rated 112) a horse we know little of, who won a small listed race recently to illustrate an example that Justify could have been beaten 2L by him (taking ratings literally). WD by your EW bet by the way. Lampus, Thanks |
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Crepello,
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With respect Andrew, I know what you meant but still think it was a crap analogy for the reasons I made in my post.
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Crepello,
What you state is correct, i generally do name the horses layers have on their side, but there were reasons i didn't last night, see the below posted to angeleyz on here last night ... I have to be honest i'm not such a mega fan of US racing, but generally watch the bigger meetings, nor am i knowledgable about the form over there, except the 'top class' and some of Wesley Wards i look for. I follow the big US races, but i wasn't familiar with most of the runners in the Belmont (exception of the winner and 2nd) and i didn't want to 'invent' sentences that would make it appear i do. I still hold the opinion that Justify is not yet a megastar the US (and maybe world) racing media will undoubtedly give him, and connections will obviously go along with this, he's worth hundreds of millions via breeding now, and I suspect his future races will be cherry picked. This is not sour grapes by me at all, i totally hold my hands up for laying him, and his 6/6 record does speak for itself. My reasoning for laying him were based on negatives i considered with Justify himself, together with nature and history of the Belmont race, 3rd leg of the TC. I did think a few of the field would stay better, and the runner up finished his race off well, but lost so many lengths at the start. A bad lay at the office  |
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George,
... but still think it was a crap analogy .... Fair enough, and i'm always open to criticism. My comment wasn't anything to do with the runner-up per se, but simply using his rating of 101 to show the form wasn't the standard you would expect in the Belmont, 3rd leg of the triple crown, look at last years. It was a poor field last night, even US commentators stated as such. Use this scenario as an example....... Imagine Masar had won the Epsom Derby by 1.75L from Gronkowski (rated 101) in a poor field. Would posters not use the same analogy i did ? How would you have reacted to the result ? |
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Yes Andrew it's just a thought about SDS and something to keep an eye on, everybody and his dog is talking about how great he has been and deservedly so, in the short term the market could over react. If there are other strong factors I don't rate for his mounts there may be a bias that keeps his prices down for lay purposes.
be interesting to see how his expected/actual winners work out. |
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An American-bred, whose dam is a half-sister to multiple dirt Grade 1 winner Holy Bull, and his damsire a Preakness winner. There were reasons to think he could take a sizeable step forward on dirt given his pedigree, and also his physique given his size.
But if you want to keep on taking literally what he did on surfaces that probably weren't his optimum, and making comparisons with a turf horse of a similar rating, fine. We'll agree to differ. Good luck with your future lays. |
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George,
An American-bred, whose dam is a half-sister to multiple dirt Grade 1 winner Holy Bull, and his damsire a Preakness winner. There were reasons to think he could take a sizeable step forward on dirt given his pedigree, and also his physique given his size. Totally agree with everything above. I also realise you thought i was usng a crap analogy, and OK, some may agree with you, others not, but forget that and use this .... Justify is only rated 115 after his win last night. Hardly earth shattering and this has been my point all along. The average rating for the 3 triple crown races are as such Belmont Stakes 116 Kentucky Derby 121 Preakness Stakes 123 Gun Runner who ran 3rd in the Kentucky derby is rated 134. Let's agree to disagree and move on. Good luck  |
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Guys,
No time for a write up i'm off out in a few mins. It's actually my 3rd choice, but one partly matched (as stated earlier) and the other totally unmatched. 2.45 Goodwood Stanley In form, but not sure if the good/firm ground will suit. Imphal and Manicini are potential winners and Gavlar could be an EW. Good luck. Lay @ 3.65 10-Jun-18 09:30:36 15:45 Goodwood Stanley - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:128035550105 | Matched: 10-Jun-18 11:34:10 Lay 3.65 50.00 132.50 50.00 Matched |
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Good Luck Andrew
Had a lovely day  |
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At least with Goodwood you have the track to help you as well. Funny race that one. At least one non-stayer and 3 that don't like the ground. GL.
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although i haven't layed stanley i have had a small bet in that race ew on gavlar.
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Wish i knew Andrews other two lays
I could have 3 bets today then All the best everyone |
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Team Decision in the 2.20 was one of them Lampus
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team decision certainly wasnt one of them lampus.
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abba justify was 6lbs well in off its previous run ,the others wernt
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Stanley is 3.45 goodw
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abba justify was 6lbs well in off its previous run ,the others wernt
another classic aftertime from the forums 2nd biggest buffoon.  ... please dont waste your time answering him Andrew . |
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But......
If you change your mind, I'm the first in line |
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Hi Andrew do you have any thoughts on the 4.40 spot lite I see this as a back bet surely better than a 60 rated horse only gone up 8lbs for those two wins
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many thanks andrew
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KKKKKKKKKEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM |
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vwd andrew ..
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My only bet of the day
Thanks ANDREW |
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WD
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WD Andrew!
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WD Andrew
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Good stuff Andrew
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good call (again) andrew
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WD Trusty!
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AiS
'we' have a TV channel here called Yesterday [see below] not sure if you can access it but got a series on there [link below] that may interest you. Yesterday Television network Image result for yesterday tv channel Yesterday is one of the UKTV network of television channels in the United Kingdom and Ireland. It launched on 30 October 2002 as UK History and relaunched in its current format on 2 March 2009. Wikipedia Virgin TV Go: Watch live (UK only) Sky (UK): Channel 155; Channel 255 (+1) Sky (Ireland): Channel 161; Channel 261 (+1) Freeview: Channel 19 Freesat: Channel 159 Virgin Media: Channel 245; Channel 246 (+1) https://uktvplay.uktv.co.uk/search/?q=abandoned+engineering |
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Well done Andrew you can sit back have cider now
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Many thanks for the comments guys, much appreciated
Kev, Sorry i couldn't respond, i've been out since lunchtime, so didn't see your post. Delta, Thanks for the link. I use a couple of web-sites to watch UK TV online, i'll take a look tomorrow evening. Mart, Thanks, but rarely a cider drinker. Guinness, decent beer or Red wine are my taste, but not in the same glass. |
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Saturday
Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day): Progress 5/9, 7 more weekend days left. Daily loss £58 Running p/l -£136.50 Overall progress 38/46 (including daily lay thread). 48 days (2 void) Overall profit £1169.50 Sunday Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day): Progress 6/10, 6 more weekend days left. Daily profit £50 Running p/l -£86.50 Overall progress 39/47 (including daily lay thread). 49 days (2 void) Overall profit £1219.50 Mondays lay will be posted on the daily thread |
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Good morning Andrew and Fellow Layers
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Good morning Lampus and all,
Not so many meetings to choose from today, so i may have to look at the Dresden card  I've got a few things to do, so the lay will be posted this afternoon. In the meantime i've layed France HT/FT, albeit only small @ 1.9 as an interest if i get to watch some of it. Good luck |
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Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day):
Progress 6/10, 6 more weekend days left. Daily profit £50 Running p/l -£86.50 Overall progress 43/51 (including daily lay thread). 54 days (3 void) Overall profit £1419.50 |