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Domino your analysis yesterday basically ignored Fahey's horse as much of a threat didn't it?
3's on and running and many would think could have won without hanging, another one Andrew wanted in his corner was well backed but withdrawn. Because you had 2 bets in the race and made a profit does not mean Andrew's lay at the price was a poor one, on another day Fahey's could have run straight and you'd have done 2 bets in the race on a horse you didn't think was much of a danger. It's dangerous thinking just because a result goes in your favour you were right, I know plenty on here have this mindset but it isn't right. |
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*3's on in running
Also self confessed 15k down on sports book a year ago but now you have all the answers and a roulette system to boot. You write well and no doubt have a decent knowledge of horses but you set massive alarm bells ringing for me. |
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Domino,
Agreed with most of what you stated about Sergei Prokofiev, and anyone that thinks he's a guaranteed short term interest investment, shouldn't be allowed out on the streets unless accompanied by a responsible adult. AOB had a 1/7f beaten at Ascot recently (albeit with valid excuses). Having said that, i do think he's a bet if i can get around 1.36-1.37. A Scat Daddy colt, the sire of Carravaggio, Lady Aurelia, et all who can't do anything wrong at the moment. I watched SP's debut run and he was certainly 'looked after' so i wouldn't read too much of a negative into the debut form, ordinary though it is. I think he will be even better on the ground. 2 of his rivals including Izzer have also only raced on soft. If the latter wins, i would be surprised, his form is ordinary and i suspect MC has sent him over for some easy Black type, but stranger things have happened in racing. Hasn't run since March for whatever reason. I was impressed with Sergio LTO, but accept he didn't beat much, and we both know that assessing early 2 year old form is not easy. I do expect him to win well enough though. Still can't find a lay yet, i wish Izzer was 5/2 ![]() ![]() |
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best of luck to anyone having a go today. i have gone against one today. 5.10 stratford the wolf. i have layed at a mixture of odds ranging from 2.76 to 2.84. i do think strike in milan and magical miss are likely to improve and i like the look of rapper on breeding.
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Sunday Lay
NH today. Write up to follow. Good luck all. 20-May-18 12:31:16 14:10 Market Rasen Tayzar - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:126200472446 | Matched: 20-May-18 12:31:17 Lay 2.63 50.00 81.46 50.00 Matched |
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Good luck angeleyz
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKqNuefh82E
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you took a good lay price it wont win
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2 losing days in a row, a first for my 2 threads, so i hope the laying Gods have had a debate and decided to give me a little break today, they certainly didn't yesterday.
At least there will not be any issues with stall handlers (as the last couple of days) for my lay, and hopefully not a repetiton of NR's. There is some Black type racing at Naas (flat) and Auteuil (NH) including British and Irish runners at the latter, but the other meetings of both types, are typical Sunday afternoon fare. It was difficult to find a suitable lay at 5/2 for varying reasons, albeit primarily due to the large fields at Limerick, and conversely, small fields with fancied favourites and several at odds-on. I would have preferred not to post, and didn't even make a short list, although i did consider Izzer (3.15 Naas) in the 2TP market, but in the end decided on a joint market leader in a small NH race. 2.10 Market Rasen Tayzar Lightly raced for a 7 year old, 2 bumpers and 3 novice hurdle races, with a couple of runner-up positions on this course, albeit shorter trips. His last run was a 12L 2nd behind a 2/5f Nicky Henderson runner, who was beaten next time out. The form is ordinary, those finishing behnd him LTO are average at best, and he was keen. As he's lightly raced, there could be improvement, and trainer/jockey form is good. The race is lacking in depth, that's clear to see, 7 runners and 3 can be discounted straight away. The one i think will win is Linganno Felice, a front runner who won over CD LTO and could get a soft lead this time. Both are rated 117 and he has to give 6lb to Tayzar, although 3lb is offset by the jockey claim. Mac Tottie is another in with a shout, and the once raced Best To Come could be aptly named. Layers have 3 runners in with a decent chance of winning, but i'm more hopeful than confident. Good luck. Lay at 2.63 (as posted earlier) 20-May-18 12:31:16 14:10 Market Rasen Tayzar - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:126200472446 | Matched: 20-May-18 12:31:17 Lay 2.63 50.00 81.46 50.00 Matched |
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Good Luck Andrew and fellow layers
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Thanks Lampus, please bear in mind it's only a 'tentative' selection, but better than no selection. The odds are low, so liability is the same. Good luck.
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think it might be 3 on the trot
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WD ABBA
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well done andrew
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Well done Andrew, not really anything to worry about watching that one.
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wd
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Easy peasy W/D Andrew
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Oi oi oi oi
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Wd Andrew back on track
and yet again price beaten ![]() |
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Thanks guys
28L Lampus ![]() Lay and the winner in my post. Did it far easier than i expected, even though he was going to get a soft lead, he had it won half-way round. If it's turned out again on good/fast ground he should be backed next time, different class to these. Tayzar wasn't even placed. |
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I don't know what Tayzar is usually like and it is a hot day but that horse looked like it was roasting in it's sweat.
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stride wont like this jockey minus favs 14 days
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ie
Would just be a bit wary of taking that run at face value today for future purposes. Not that that matters a jot today for the fred ![]() |
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No ATR or RUK here striding (I can get BBC, ITV etc) but the commentator mentioned it was hot.
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yes deadbrain cos you see examples of anything you care to name if you are looking solely for them
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Job done! Onwards and upwards. Good call Andrew.
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Striding, i understand what you're saying (wary etc) but he always looked comforatble out in front, jumped well, maybe he loves the faster ground as some front runners often do.
Be interesting to compare times at end of the day. |
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Thank you Roy
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WD
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yes sorry my 2:24 post was about tayzar again
ie the winner did it very well but the selection was sweating profusely and was cooked a long way out. It could be that the 2nd just wasn't right today rather than that being a true reflection of it's ability, only time will tell on that score. |
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*selection not 2nd, it came nowhere
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Angeleyz I'm with you on the wolf lay. Layed at 2.98 good luck.
Well done Andrew back on track credit where credits due. |
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striding,
I wanted to add a little more text to my lay write up, but time prevented and although i posted the name and matched bet, i wanted the reasons to be seen before the off of course. Here is a jist of what i was going to add...... Times should only be used as guidance, we all know that, but Linganno Felice and Tayzar ran at the course on April 22nd, albeit differing trips and 95 minutes apart. LF won in 9.6 seconds slow Tayzar ran behind the winner (12L) who clocked 33.3 seconds slow ! Quite a difference. ..... Just out of curiosity, i checked the times for LF in both races (although comparing differing days can be faulted). April 22nd 4 mins 4.90 seconds May 20th 4 mins 4.60 seconds |
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Andrew..live streams here..RUK ant ATR
http://cricfree.sc/watch/live/uk-horse-racing-live-live-streaming-1 |
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Yes i'm not crabbing your reasoning mate I'm just saying that Tayzar (who has been keen and needed a wind op so hasn't been straight forward anyhow) may be capable in hcps and the way it looked and ran today could catch people out if they take the run as gospel.
It may prove to just not be up to it but I thought I'd just put it out there ![]() |
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Sure striding sorry, i wasn't suggesting any crabbing etc. In the latter part i was basically interested in the times of the 2 LF races that actually align with what you stated, Tayzar not running his race etc. You could be right
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Basically it looked visually good, but comparing times, it was not far off what had run before
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Many thanks Koi, is this a whole new world for me ?
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Are these the pics mart has been using for his inrunning bets?
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