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Andrews' Saturday and Sunday Daily Nap Lay

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By:
stridingedge
When: 20 May 18 10:51
Domino  your analysis yesterday basically ignored Fahey's horse as much of a threat didn't it?

3's on and running and many would think could have won without hanging, another one Andrew wanted in his corner was well backed but withdrawn.

Because you had 2 bets in the race and made a profit does not mean Andrew's lay at the price was a poor one, on another day Fahey's could have run straight and you'd have done 2 bets in the race on a horse you didn't think was much of a danger.

It's dangerous thinking just because a result goes in your favour you were right, I know plenty on here have this mindset but it isn't right.
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 May 18 10:52
*3's on in running

Also self confessed 15k down on sports book a year ago but now you have all the answers and a roulette system to boot.

You write well and no doubt have a decent knowledge of horses but you set massive alarm bells ringing for me.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 11:37
Domino,

Agreed with most of what you stated about Sergei Prokofiev, and anyone that thinks he's a guaranteed short term interest investment, shouldn't be allowed out on the streets unless accompanied by a responsible adult. AOB had a 1/7f beaten at Ascot recently (albeit with valid excuses).

Having said that, i do think he's a bet if i can get around 1.36-1.37.

A Scat Daddy colt, the sire of Carravaggio, Lady Aurelia, et all who can't do anything wrong at the moment.

I watched SP's debut run and he was certainly 'looked after' so i wouldn't read too much of a negative into the debut form, ordinary though it is.

I think he will be even better on the ground. 2 of his rivals including Izzer have also only raced on soft. If the latter wins, i would be surprised, his form is ordinary and i suspect MC has sent him over for some easy Black type, but stranger things have happened in racing. Hasn't run since March for whatever reason.

I was impressed with Sergio LTO, but accept he didn't beat much, and we both know that assessing early 2 year old form is not easy. I do expect him to win well enough though.

Still can't find a lay yet, i wish Izzer was 5/2 SadWink
By:
angeleyz
When: 20 May 18 12:15
best of luck to anyone having a go today. i have gone against one today. 5.10 stratford the wolf. i have layed at a mixture of odds ranging from 2.76 to 2.84. i do think strike in milan and magical miss are likely to improve and i like the look of rapper on breeding.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 12:35
Sunday Lay

NH today. Write up to follow.

Good luck all.

20-May-18
12:31:16    14:10 Market Rasen
Tayzar - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:126200472446 | Matched: 20-May-18 12:31:17    Lay    2.63    50.00    81.46
50.00
Matched
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 12:35
Good luck angeleyz Grin
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 20 May 18 12:39
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKqNuefh82E
By:
deadbrain59
When: 20 May 18 13:47
you took a good lay price it wont winMischief
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 13:52
2 losing days in a row, a first for my 2 threads, so i hope the laying Gods have had a debate and decided to give me a little break today, they certainly didn't yesterday.

At least there will not be any issues with stall handlers (as the last couple of days) for my lay, and hopefully not a repetiton of NR's.

There is some Black type racing at Naas (flat) and Auteuil (NH) including British and Irish runners at the latter, but the other meetings of both types, are typical Sunday afternoon fare.

It was difficult to find a suitable lay at 5/2 for varying reasons, albeit primarily due to the large fields at Limerick, and conversely, small fields with fancied favourites and several at odds-on.

I would have preferred not to post, and didn't even make a short list, although i did consider Izzer (3.15 Naas) in the 2TP market, but in the end decided on a joint market leader in a small NH race.

2.10 Market Rasen Tayzar

Lightly raced for a 7 year old, 2 bumpers and 3 novice hurdle races, with a couple of runner-up positions on this course, albeit shorter trips. His last run was a 12L 2nd behind a 2/5f Nicky Henderson runner, who was beaten next time out. The form is ordinary, those finishing behnd him LTO are average at best, and he was keen.

As he's lightly raced, there could be improvement, and trainer/jockey form is good.

The race is lacking in depth, that's clear to see, 7 runners and 3 can be discounted straight away. The one i think will win is Linganno Felice, a front runner who won over CD LTO and could get a soft lead this time. Both are rated 117 and he has to give 6lb to Tayzar, although 3lb is offset by the jockey claim.

Mac Tottie is another in with a shout, and the once raced Best To Come could be aptly named.

Layers have 3 runners in with a decent chance of winning, but i'm more hopeful than confident.

Good luck.

Lay at 2.63 (as posted earlier)

20-May-18
12:31:16    14:10 Market Rasen
Tayzar - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:126200472446 | Matched: 20-May-18 12:31:17    Lay    2.63    50.00    81.46
50.00
Matched
By:
Lampus
When: 20 May 18 14:00
Good Luck Andrew and fellow layers
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 14:05
Thanks Lampus, please bear in mind it's only a 'tentative' selection, but better than no selection. The odds are low, so liability is the same. Good luck.
By:
pete_de
When: 20 May 18 14:06
think it might be 3 on the trotSad
By:
deadbrain59
When: 20 May 18 14:14
WD ABBAWink
By:
pete_de
When: 20 May 18 14:15
well done andrew
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 20 May 18 14:15
CoolCoolSadCool
By:
domino14
When: 20 May 18 14:15
Well done Andrew, not really anything to worry about watching that one.
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 20 May 18 14:15
wd
By:
Lampus
When: 20 May 18 14:15
Easy peasy  W/D  Andrew  GrinGrin
By:
GHOSTOFALEXBIRD
When: 20 May 18 14:20
Oi oi oi oiCool
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 May 18 14:21
Wd Andrew back on track

and yet again price beaten Cool
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 14:21
Thanks guys

28L Lampus Grin

Lay and the winner in my post. Did it far easier than i expected, even though he was going to get a soft lead, he had it won half-way round. If it's turned out again on good/fast ground he should be backed next time, different class to these. Tayzar wasn't even placed.
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 May 18 14:22
I don't know what Tayzar is usually like and it is a hot day but that horse looked like it was roasting in it's sweat.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 20 May 18 14:24
stride wont like this jockey minus favs 14 daysGrin
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 May 18 14:24
ie

Would just be a bit wary of taking that run at face value today for future purposes.

Not that that matters a jot today for the fred Happy
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 14:24
No ATR or RUK here striding (I can get BBC, ITV etc) but the commentator mentioned it was hot.
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 May 18 14:25
yes deadbrain cos you see examples of anything you care to name if you are looking solely for them Cry
By:
EVILROYSLADE
When: 20 May 18 14:27
Job done! Onwards and upwards. Good call Andrew.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 14:27
Striding, i understand what you're saying (wary etc) but he always looked comforatble out in front, jumped well, maybe he loves the faster ground as some front runners often do.

Be interesting to compare times at end of the day.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 14:27
Thank you Roy
By:
Lee Ho Fooks
When: 20 May 18 14:30
WD
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 May 18 14:32
yes sorry my 2:24 post was about tayzar again

ie the winner did it very well but the selection was sweating profusely and was cooked a long way out.

It could be that the 2nd just wasn't right today rather than that being a true reflection of it's ability, only time will tell on that score.
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 May 18 14:32
*selection not 2nd, it came nowhere Wink
By:
StillLearning
When: 20 May 18 14:36
Angeleyz I'm with you on the wolf lay. Layed at 2.98 good luck.

Well done Andrew back on track credit where credits due.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 14:46
striding,

I wanted to add a little more text to my lay write up, but time prevented and although i posted the name and matched bet, i wanted the reasons to be seen before the off of course.

Here is a jist of what i was going to add......

Times should only be used as guidance, we all know that, but Linganno Felice and Tayzar ran at the course on April 22nd, albeit differing trips and 95 minutes apart.

LF won in 9.6 seconds slow
Tayzar ran behind the winner (12L) who clocked 33.3 seconds slow !

Quite a difference.

.....

Just out of curiosity, i checked the times for LF in both races (although comparing differing days can be faulted).

April 22nd 4 mins 4.90 seconds

May 20th   4 mins 4.60 seconds
By:
koikeeper
When: 20 May 18 14:49
Andrew..live streams here..RUK ant ATR

http://cricfree.sc/watch/live/uk-horse-racing-live-live-streaming-1
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 May 18 14:50
Yes i'm not crabbing your reasoning mate I'm just saying that Tayzar (who has been keen and needed a wind op so hasn't been straight forward anyhow) may be capable in hcps and the way it looked and ran today could catch people out if they take the run as gospel.

It may prove to just not be up to it but I thought I'd just put it out there Wink
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 15:01
Sure striding sorry, i wasn't suggesting any crabbing etc. In the latter part i was basically interested in the times of the 2 LF races that actually align with what you stated, Tayzar not running his race etc. You could be right Grin
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 15:02
Basically it looked visually good, but comparing times, it was not far off what had run before
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 20 May 18 15:03
Many thanks Koi, is this a whole new world for me ? Wink
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 20 May 18 15:05
Are these the pics mart has been using for his inrunning bets?
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