Tomoros a big day for confidence innit

You will find your disapiles one i know you will

Right ive got some real ale and a bbq to have

Im all over RIPP ORF In the 5.25

Have a good evening gents

Beer time hair

my thread is neat and tidy

its empty

good man, lets hope he appreciates your efforts on his behalf

Full steam ahead for tomorrow Andrew ! Like Lampy says., we're still well in profit. Hit em for a big six tomorrow... From a very sunny cove down in Cornwall that they call Porthcurno.

Truro and db, thanks for the comments.

Truro, i know of Porthcurno, but never went there, Born in Redruth hospital, but lived in Newquay originally before moving to RAF St Eval. Isn't the open air theatre at Porthcurno ?

Speaking of Newquay, there was a topical runner i could have backed in the last race

db, i will continue to post a daily lay for the time being, but not to satisfy anyone really, if it was, it's probably myself, albeit simply as a challenge. Yes, the 2 threads overall have a very healthy profit, but the negative to that is there could be guys that only started to lay them from yesterday, based on previous results, and would therefore be in a losing position. Hopefully, this is not the case, and i can get back on track tomorrow.

Angeleyz, well done with your lay, hope you made plenty

Morning all.

30 minutes earlier.

30 minutes later

LOL Ghost, i can always rely on you for support.

In answer to your question, no idea yet, but i'm looking at a small selling race in Mumbai, i think i've found an edge

Morning Andrew;

I've only just had a chance to watch the replay of the Thirsk race, and hard lines would be my comment.

I actually don't share your view in regards to the the Non Runner making a huge difference to the race / result and neither do I share the speed / pace angle from gate 9. Here is my reasoning why.

At Chester she looked a bit backward in her coat and also in her appearance, and she was a middle April foal, so doesn't tick the early box type. Add to that she is by an 8-10f stallion in Farhh she is far from bred to be a pacey sort. The dam was a sprinter by Night Shift but was more a 6f horse. If you watched her race at Chester, she broke OK, but not fast. She didn't lead at Chester in a race that despite it being only an average gallop. The ground was decent yet the time was some 4 seconds slower than standard and one could say the pace was not your typical Chester race. She actually tucked in 4th/5th behind the leaders 2L off the pace in an ordinary gallop, so again despite a handy draw yesterday I'm far from convinced she would have had enough speed to bag the rail. It's worth noting, that the Winner was looking for the rail but because Oxygenic broke so quickly and was so quick into it's stride, that horse actually held the rail and the winner could never get more than a length in front on her, to move across despite Greatrex looking over his shoulder 3/4 times in the opening 1-2f to see if he could bag the rail. As it turned out the front trio more or less raced in the middle of the track in the final furlong, spurring the stand side rail. Back to Lady Kinsale. So at Chester whilst she showed OK speed, she showed OK speed in a race where there was little pace on and a slow time, she actually was being pushed along by her rider 3f out, but she was pushed through to lead as they went around the bend on the run for home, therefore again it doesn't allude to her having speed, just that off not a strong pace, her rider decided to commit her early, however no sooner than she hit the front at Chester she was headed and weakened tamely and recorded a figure of low 30s, some 2 stone lower than the form set by Luchador and the Haggas horse. Also no one really knows how good the form of the Chester race is, but Arcadian Rocks who was a one paced the beaten 5L could only manage 9th of 13 in a fair looking maiden at Doncaster last night, so average would be fair at this stage. The 2nd in the race was given far too much to do at Chester and possibly should have won, whilst the winner was beaten 2L on debut, by a nice horse, but one who failed to come down the hill at Brighton and would have beaten Wedding Date 5-6L easily on a galloping track.

Timing the first 2 furlongs of the Chester Race, to each of Luchador's, and Oxygenic's race, has the times around 1-2 seconds slower, so I find it highly unlikely she would have had the pace to beat either Oxygenic to the rail, or Luchador who were all a second to seconds in front of her position after 1f and 2f in their 2 races to date, over her run at Chester. I suspect she would have been dropped in much like the Haggas horse was which came from stall 8.

Given she had to improve over 30lb to have a chance of winning on form, I think her being a non runner saved you somewhat with a reduction factor, rather than you lost a horse running for you. A lot of Alston horses appear to be well backed and his yard is in good form at present, but his record with 2yo's especially in maidens / novice stakes is woeful and the money for her I feel, was more the negativity in the front two in the market and people looking for maybe value. But the form and nature of the race does not suggest she would have been a leading player.

As we expected, and even yourself alluded to, it turned into a bit of a three horse race, with Luchador and Red Hut Red looking similar horses on form already. The 3rd for my liking got the sort of ride, I kind of feared. After being so keen on debut, it was crucial for the filly who basically had no real education last time to get a good experience, and finish her race and settle. Sadly one angle not looked at by gamblers is very few trainers are punters or even care for punters, they want what's best for their horse in the long term and the Haggas filly was certainly ridden like this yesterday. She was restrained and kept out the back allowing her to settle and when she made headway the first two had already got first run on her, and Ben Curtis was keen to keep her switched off so had to drop her in to do this. If you watch the first 2f she is pulling hard again, and he is at pains to keep her covered up. She stayed on well and I feel with another 100 yards she may have won, and Curtis was not unduly hard on her, if anything given the most tender ride of the front three home. That said from a trainers point of view it was job done. She was switched off and taught something and finished her race, but as a punter, you could feel you weren't given a great ride for your money. That said had Ben allowed her to cart off and pull like hell, and not do the restraining part in the first half of the race, she may have emptied like she did at Newmarket. As it turned out, it was education over win today, but a deep analysis of her debut run, could have highlighted that as perfectly possible given how everything went wrong.

The second despite running green, hanging under pressure, had in my opinion every chance. It broke alertly, travelled well and I think may have actually headed the winner briefly around 1f out. She was certainly in a challenging position from 300 metres out to the line, so had every chance. Her inexperience may have cost her, as did her continual lugging left, but the winner also didn't keep a straight line and I think was a bit leaning for company. The second got 7 cracks of the whip, something rare for a 2yo debutante and in my opinion, it was a case of connections had backed her and Tony Hamilton was doing all he could to get a win. She looked to me like a filly who would a, come on for the run, but more importantly b, prefer 6f which her pedigree alluded to. She was green but whilst she travelled well and in my opinion looked the most likely winner 2-1f out, she failed to quicken and just stayed on, in the final furlong she made no further in roads to the winner, which her hanging didn't help, but she went from a neck down to getting beat 3/4L and the winner was going away from her at the line, and the 3rd gaining with each stride. I think this filly is ordinary and whilst I could see her beating the winner with a run under her belt and perhaps over 6f, the fact she hung as badly as she did would concern me slightly. I fear she could end up going off a short price in a maiden next time out, and it's worth noting she's prob ran 65-70 at best here, so unless it was a weak looking race like yesterday's was, then I would be inclined to oppose rather than bet.

The winner for me ran a good race and got the job done, but I am still of the opinion it was an ordinary race, and I don't feel she has improved much from her previous starts and would be surprised if she has run to much more than around a low to mid 70s mark here. The time was OK in 1.92 seconds slower than standard (2 seconds quicker than the Chester time of Lady Kinsale's race) and she put her experience to good use. She is not blessed with natural early speed, and Greatrex made an effort to not only lead but get the rail, but she had to work hard to get that position and never could get the rail because Oxygenic held her position until weakening just over 1f out. She kept on gamely running straighter than the runner up, and in beating the 3rd 1L, she will come out around 3lb better than the 3rd. She had previously run 69 whereas the 3rd ran a cautious 68, so again there was little between them but she upheld the ratings, (possibly helped by the ride on the 3rd). She did have the best form coming into the race and that was always a dangerous angle to lay, as with any lay as in order for the horse to get beat, you need horses to either improve past the horse, or something unexposed to be above the level of whats on offer. Now I didn't dislike your reasoning for laying this one, and the horse despite the best form was no given and she kind of did what I expected her to and the form alluded to, although I do feel you've been unlucky that the second horse (who is prob a 75 horse at best at present) has hung and the 3rd was given an educational ride.

However one thing you said yesterday actually concerns me in regards to your lays, and this is not me nit picking or trying to be all know it all, it is merely feedback in trying to help, as I sometimes view multiple viewpoints can help in a number of things. The thing that concerns me is that you said, you don't look much into ratings, whilst it is abundantly clear a lot of my betting is focused on the form of a race. I appreciate it might not be your bag, but I would like to point out that both your last two horses you have layed have been the proven horses in the race, with the most to offer, and therefore I do not find it a surprise they won.

I am going to be openly honest with you Andrew. I am man enough to say I have been very impressed by your thread and offer you the upmost congratulations in building a decent profit but I feel the two points I have now made to you have in some regards fallen on deaf ears when they have been intended to help. So I feel the need to explain in a way that doesn't sound condescending as you put it, nor arrogant, as they were merely made to help, not to take mick, or come across billy big shot.

Assessment: I still think this is an area to look into, whilst it may not be your bag, I would urge you to assess each horse in a race and look at the form it brings to the table. I appreciate you're not going to pay for complex figure systems (something I do) but even using Racing post Ratings is a good starting point to get an overall assessment of form. It will give you a form viewpoint of what horses actually need to run to to win a race, and how much they need to improve and can factor in why a horse has not run to form and so on. A point I made yesterday was that although Threading disappointed at Newmarket , her disappointing run in the context of her rivals was actually only 5lb off the best of them, who was a doubtful stayer and a max of 2lb behind anything else, so it made it clear that scarily her poor run at Newmarket was somehow actually good enough to win the race. Now I only started looking at your lays closely 2 - 3 days ago. This was because I'm naturally a nosey person. I saw your impressive strike rate with horses at a low price end and wanted to look deeper and see if I could work out what you were doing. In doing so, I spent 30 minutes the last two days thoroughly going over your races for my own form and opinion viewpoint. This is not something I had done on any of your lays in the past, which is why you previously hadn't got war and peace from me on your threads ! But I have to admit, I couldn't see what you were seeing in these two lays despite respecting in many ways why you opposed. I don't think the Thirsk lay was a bad lay, I think you had your assessment and angles right in regards to wanting to lay the horse, I feel you were just let down on there being no strength in depth to the race and her main rival being ridden for another day as a punting point of view, this however is the dangerous side of laying the proven horse in any maiden. However whilst you had the right price on Threading I do think it was a bad lay, and I think more thorough research into pedigree's and the rivals she encountered could have led you away from her as a lay. I'm not saying she was a bet, but there was always too much uncertainty to make her a lay.
For all I may have not been gambling a long time, I have been in the racing Industry since 1996 when I started working for Pip Payne in Newmarket and in my 20 years I have a different viewpoint to most gamblers and punters and this is because my views of races and horses will be very different to the natural punter.
As someone who has race ridden, I can happily say jockeys discuss races in the weighing room, found out who wants to lead and so on, who knows what about each horse and so on. this is not done as a betting point of view, but say I'm Ben Curtis yesterday and I know I want to get my horse cover and to help her settle as the trainer wants to get her to see the race out well and learn something, I'll be asking the boys in the room, who is going forward and where, so I can get in my own mind where I can place my horse to give it the best chance of settling. This is something obviously not privy to any punter, and sadly some jockeys are not as well educated or functional to use their heads. Some just go with the I'll do what I want approach and it leads to bad rides, but most have a plan in the back of their mind, even before they spoke to a trainer. Trainers will always want whats best for their horses in the long term. William Haggas may have thrown away a winning opportunity with Red Hut Red yesterday but a flip side is the horse has had a far better education than she got at Newmarket, and it will have helped her learn to settle in future and also allowed her to finish the race giving her confidence, in losing yesterday she gained massively for the future, but this is of course no aid to the punter, but how she was ridden yesterday was perfectly possible when you assessed her debut. As someone who has worked with trainers and jockeys all their life, I can see this viewpoint, but it's a viewpoint most punters wont have. The one thing I like to do when I look at a race is I ask myself "what would I do with this horse if I was riding or training it?". This viewpoint with my experience gives me a whole different view to how a race can pan out, but it's one of a many ways I see things differently to someone who just bets and sees things black and white. All the above however can certainly be understood better though, by assessing the form on offer in a race.
I appreciate form studying and ratings assessment may not be your cup of tea and you may not see it important, but I do think it is something, which would aid you considerably and would definitely prevented a lay in regards to something like Threading, even though it may have not been enough to deter from the lay of Luchador.

The second point was that you need strength in depth when laying. Obviously with your price bracket, having 3-4 horses or even 5-6 horses running for you is unlikely or the price of the horse wouldn't be under 2/1, but I do feel in many ways if you're going to ignore standard form assessment where you may be laying the proven horse, you need to make sure you have more than one horse running for you. As it so happens I feel you had two running for you yesterday (we can agree to disagree on the chances of the Alston horse, but I hope you can see and understand my point of negativity in her), but one was a debutante and no one except maybe Richard Fahey and those close to his yard actually knew his opinions of the horse. As a result I don't think there was anything wrong with your lay yesterday as you had it at the right price in your eyes and you were just unlucky, but my approach on the race was different, as I didn't see it as a laying race, I saw it as a race that only 2 could win, unless the Fahey horse was decent (pedigree put me off it being a speed ball) and therefore I took that option, although personally thought the Haggas horse may win, but was concerned with the pulling. As said yesterday I see it perfectly fine to want to bet against something, but not lay something in a race, something a lot of punters don't agree with, but it is an angle I know has helped me. As often I see a fav and I'm like god I couldn't back that (Coronet obvious example) and I look for value in the race against it. Laying isn't always the answer on a negative horse, unless you have enough running for you, to dislike something is fine, but to lay on one factor and that being the negativity or possible negativity of one horse is simply not enough to make it a lay (I think this is where I sit with Threading in that you were laying her on her profile or possible profile, rather than giving full consideration of what she has to beat).

I have only wrote this up as it's my opinion Andrew, and I think a secondary viewpoint is worth having and can help see what you often can't. I am not saying my way is the right way but I do think it can give food for thought.

I always when I rode evaluated all my rides, whether I won or lost. I think there was on times , horses I rode very well who lost, and some I rode terribly who won. I think you can do the same with you lays, pre race and after race, as if noticing one thing which can help in the future, it becomes most worthwhile.

Obviously you will do what you feel is best, and you have your own approach and it's worked very well up to now, I did say a couple of weeks ago, the 8/9 winning lays could be undone easily with 3/4 losing ones on the bounce, which can happen if laying horses with not enough things running for you, and you responded in a "it wont happen" defensive manner. If anything the last two days should show you it can happen, and it may, so all I will say, is please look more into pre assessment, evaluating form and opposition. Yes it may take longer but I feel in the long run it can save you. There is nothing wrong with having a day of nothing to lay, even though 3/4 originally jumped out as possibles but there just wasn't enough factors to make it a safe lay. I hope you bounce back with a winning lay if you oppose something today and I genuinely wish you the very best and congratulate you on the record up to now as it is very impressive.

As I have said before, if you ever want a second opinion on anything, in retrospect of figures, form, or if I have heard anything that may help, feel free to PM me as I'm always happy to give my opinion, I like to see people do well and win, and feel if people work with people and each valuable unit can add something constructive and helpful, then the job in hand becomes easier.

Good luck today Andrew.

Did you know Alan Sugar once opened a cat sanctuary and gave away 100K doing so. Not something many good businessmen would do to make money.

Not everyone does stuff people agree with. I make money on roulette, it's not for everyone but it's my guilty pleasure. I love playing the wheel and I do well at it, but have the bank to do so. I get it's not for everyone and people think it's mug punting and makes little to no sense to many, but just because it's not right for some doesn't mean its not right for someone else.

And to you.

I think calling KOD the King may go to his head somewhat.

I would say he is more of a Page than a King.

We really do have to look at Andrew's record here. It is pretty remarkable. There will always be a reason why a particular " lay" went and won the race. That goes with the territory..( price). I seem to remember someone on here trying to promote what appeared to be their own exchange tipping(laying) service. Even had their own website. Seems he put up around eight lays on the bounce.....trouble was, they all went on and won their respective race. It therefore needs to be remembered just how tough this game can be. Andrew was unlucky yesterday. The winner looked beat at one stage, but a couple of jockeys had other things on their minds IMO. None of Andrew's selections have been without a reasonable chance of performing well in a race. The price on offer suggests just that. To build up such an impressive strike rate is no mean feat however. Perhaps a discussion before the main event would serve us all well. Positives and negatives( if applicable) pre race , Andrew and Domino. Long live the forum!

Evilroyslade, many thanks for the comments, much appreciated

I've stated before on several occasions, i like dominos posts, he knows the game, but i do feel he loves to critique far too much, and needs to show a little humility. Not only that but i have to waste time responding to his critiques LOL

He had a good win yesterday, and i posted a well done on his thread, but if you scrutinise his overall record (I can't be ar#ed) i suspect it's not in profit. Domino doesn't get it right all the time, nor do you, nor do i, and i know you think the same. Good luck.

loves to critique far too much,

should read

loves to critique far too much, after the event

Thanks for your reply Andrew. I was humble after Prabeni and openly admitted I got it wrong. I do think James Doyle rode it like an idiot, but I wouldn't be the biggest fan of Doyle and he goes under the rides a bit like a headless chicken at times stamp for me. I do not think we've seen the best of Prabeni by any stretch, but I am not stupid enough to say I didn't get it wrong about him.

I also held my hands up re Roaring Lion, I even said hate the horse, he's making a fool of me, I lumped him at Newmarket and lost a shed load, then layed him the other day, as couldn't see him staying for all the tea in China. I was wrong, but I don't think I was alone in laying him.

I think even yourself alluded to the fact you had him down as a lay but he went outside your price bracket, which shows you have good discipline.

If you read what I put earlier I said, I didn't go into detail of looking at your lays until the last two days, you were 12 from 12 I think when you layed Prabeni and I was impressed by your previous record, hence me saying I hope you've not layed my nap, and then said you did. Obviously I didn't do long research into your lay of Prabeni as I was adamant he would win, and 2/1 into something like 4/6, I was not alone.

I have always said well done to your Andrew, and I am not sure where you get the viewpoint of a Vendetta or so on from.

None of my responses in the last two days have either been I told you so, or you're wrong or gloating. I have simply not agreed with your lay or maybe not so much the lay but the race to lay in and given strong reasons why, this has not been about being right or wrong but to add a side viewpoint, which you may be missing or could be of help to you.

In the same regards you say a couple of my winning threads would have given confidence in others to bet Prabeni on my say so, your lays would have also welcomed viewers into laying your findings and therefore a number of readers may have layed your last which won, and may not have been a large number of the earlier ones so to speak. It's the same thing as my Prabeni post. I'm not knocking you for it, and welcome you giving your opinion which is more than most do on the forum and credit to you for doing so, right or wrongly.

The essence of separating bets to lays is non relevant though, obviously when you bet you only have one running for you, but when you lay you often risk a lot more, so to only have one running for you when you lay, would be more risky in some regards. But I don't see what relevance that brings to the discussion.

My posts have been nothing more than to help and offer a viewpoint. The twice I have done it, it appears to have been right in doing so, but I am not bragging and so on, I would like to see you go 100/100 on lays and make a lot of money, but I take this viewpoint, when you post and do well people follow, and if something could be vulnerable, I see it that it is fair to offer than opinion, whether right or wrong, as it may help some.

Obviously the blind will always follow the blind, some people wont do thorough work or assessment on stuff, and when I post info or opinion, it is merely that, I am not saying people should or have to bet what I put up, but I think in the long run they would make money. I like anyone have good and bad days but I make money. My ways may not be conventional and not for everyone, but they work for me.

The feedback and opinion posted, were to offer a different viewpoint, the same way if you posted a lay I strongly agreed with I would post my opinions backing it up and stating I really agreed with you. The only two I've gone over in detail after you've posted were the last two as I've only started looking at the lays properly you put up.

I commented after one, I thought it was risky, as it looked a poor race and was a strong fav, but had done no work on the race, I thought it was a brave lay and I did congratulate you when it lost.

Prabeni obviously I was expecting to win, given how strong I had it. I was one of the first to congratulate you when it won.

The difference with Prabeni was he was very much the hype horse, his figure on debut was ordinary and it was only on his home work you could possibly bet him as 2/3 had better course form in the race. If my colours weren't pinned to Prabeni and I hadn't had info on the horse, as a pre race assessment on form, he would have definitely been a lay, as he fitted into the hype element I've previously mentioned.

You put up a really good lay the other day by the way. Can't remember it's name but it was trained by Clive Cox and was running in a strong maiden after it put up only the 4th highest debut figure in the race, on my figures it had to improve 7lb to have a chance of winning and there were also some expensive newcomers in the race. Had I been assessing your lays that day, and spent time to study the race I would have backed you up massively and agreed fully.

Anyway have a good day, and good luck if you chose to lay something. Not much to chose from under the 5/2 barrier at Ripon though, and not sure what your views on Irish races are, not spotted many lays from you in that department.

Thanks domino, i'll say one thing for you ...... you can type quickly

I use a keyboard at work for technical specs etc, so i'm not slow at all, but i sense you beat me hands down (or should that be fingers).

Agreed Ripon is a difficult card for a lay of 5/2, but it's the same at all meetings. There are several odds on as well. I may have to select a NH horse, but given the chance, i wouldn't post at all, it's a tricky day.

I will be backing the AOB trained Sergei Prokofiev (not matched yet) but sadly there isn't a 5/2 in there i can put up as a lay

Good luck

**domino**

Good morning Lampus, or should i say 'Myttin da'

Apologies, i was tied up with lengthy posts.

Good luck with Sergi. I have bet 2 APOB horses today, as mentioned in the thread under my own name, he is not one of them, that's not me saying he wont win but I think he offers no value at 3/10. He takes on 4 other previous winners and has only run on testing ground so fast ground is an unknown. His debut figure of 85 is solid enough and did improve to 98 next time, but he beat absolute zilch and despite a 7L win, the form accounts for little. The 2nd to him that day, could only finish last of 5 behind another APOB horse next time and on my figures is a 75 horse at best, so it's one of those fast past trees for me.

Sergi's debut of 85 sits alongside the following;

Dandys Ocean 84 (Receives 5lb)
Izzer 83 - 87
Offline 88 (impressed me on debut, well beat 3rd has won since, and was such a late foal for such an early race, I feel this is open to any amount of improvement)
Andre Amar 82

Therefore Sergi's debut is no different to any of the others debuts in this race, and whilst he won impressively last time was 3.84secs slower than standard and he beat very ordinary horses.

I feel his 98 could therefore be flattering and it's only 10lb better than Offline's debut figure who will have definitely improved and 9lb better than Dandy's Ocean if you take into account her sex allowance.

Offline is 12/1 which I think is a massive price, and even 17.5 on the exchange. It is 3/1 to place, and Even money in the 3 place market.

I have not had a bet in the race yet but at Evens to come 1-2-3 I would certainly be more tempted to back Offline, and then half the profit I could make on that to come 1-2 at 3/1, with a small 5% on the win at 17.5, than I would in wanting to take 3/10 or 2/7 about the Fav, who was no better than it's rivals on debut, has to prove itself on faster ground and could be massively flattered by a mark of 98. Not one I would lay, but certainly one I think there is better value to bet something else in the race.

I could make more by Offline coming 3rd, than the fav winning.