There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1046 comments are related to the topic:
Andrews' Saturday and Sunday Daily Nap Lay
Andrews' Saturday and Sunday Daily Nap Lay
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,046
|
By:
Saturday Nap Lay
2.45 Thirsk Luchador I will post the reasoning in an hour or so (not finished) as i need to get to Forex. 19-May-18 09:02:02 14:45 Thirsk Luchador - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:126043370857 | Matched: 19-May-18 09:03:25 Lay 3.00 50.00 100.00 50.00 Matched |
|
By:
Thanks Andrew G/L Everyone
 |
|
By:
2 x NR's (as yesterday) reduction factor 6.5%
|
|
By:
Good luck Andrew,did you see my post at 9.09,if you did and you don't want to put it on here,no problem.
|
|
By:
Just leaving for Wembley, good luck Andrew.
That is a race I've actually dutched the Watson and Haggas horse in. Both only ran to about 68 on debut, so nothing between them and given the Haggas horse was so keen at Newmarket I feel she is open to more improvement but I struggled to make a case for anything else in the race. Money for the Fahey horse would obviously be interesting but by a cheap stallion who Mick Channon trained, out of a mare by Fraam the breeding is hardly exciting and the dam ran once being tailed off over a mile and her progeny have all seemed to want 7-10f. I would be surprised if that had the toe for 5f, despite being by a sire who was effective over 5f. I couldn't split the Haggas or Watson horse, but the form is nothing special that's for sure and marginal preference was for the Haggas horse. Be interesting to read your thoughts on why to lay later on today, hopefully when it's been beaten for you. |
|
By:
I get this one around 2/1 Andrew, a similar approach to many of the others that has seen great success.
The form of Archie Watsons' does not look strong so far in the 2 runs with Kinks (a hd 2nd when Luchador 4th on debut at kempton) the one that has won since from that race taking novice events over the 5 at Bath and Ripon. Luchador didn't seem to go on from the dubut at Yarmouth and the strength of that race is not likely to be all that, nothing has won from it so far with a couple placed in minor contests. Fahey has taken this race 3 times in 10 running's with Debutantes so we know he likes to get an early 2yo here, his runners at this time of the year in these races all merit close consideration.Obviously early days for the sire 5-24 to date with 3-14 going in first time, looks a very likely early 2yo on paper. Haggis has the other main contender and his runner is more than likely going to improve on the unfurnished run at HQ when not beaten far, the winner and 6th(who subsequently had won at salisbury) took in a listed event earlier in the week at york btn 3l and 2l respectively.Haggis took the race last year with the once raced validator and he has sent 2 HQ runners here in the last 10 years on 2nd start and both have won.All in all looks likely to be here to do business. There is a Burke newcomer that the market will probably guide with, he is 0-19 with mostly big priced types on debut (2yo) at track in last 10 years. Eric Alston's Lady Kinsale showed a bit of early pace at Chester first spin recently before fading badly in a class 2 event that has not yet seen a subsequent runner but it wouldn't be a massive surprise to see a stronger effort here today. Plenty of ticks with opposition strength and likely motive and form of Archie Watson horse nothing to get excited about from 1st to 2nd run. GL as always  |
|
By:
* I call him haggis as nickname and just often can't get it out of my head when talking about his horses
 Haggas  |
|
By:
Done a few Paddys money back seconds in that race will adjust betfair lays accordingly
 |
|
By:
@Striding
"Fahey has taken this race 3 times in 10 running's with Debutantes so we know he likes to get an early 2yo here, his runners at this time of the year in these races all merit close consideration.Obviously early days for the sire 5-24 to date with 3-14 going in first time, looks a very likely early 2yo on paper" I get the stallion being a 2yo 5f sprinter and again 3yo 5f sprinter, so if that's your angle to say it would be early, but the dam didn't race until 3, which trained by Channon is rare, and was tailed off over a mile. All her progeny have wanted minimum 6f, and then most 7-10f, getting better at 3 and 4. I'm far from convinced this horses pedigree screams early season 2yo. It is a late March foal, who is out of a mare who wanted time and offspring wanted time, I would say it could be dangerous to allude it would be early because it's stallion has made a bright start to his career as a stallion, and was speedy himself. I often find horses take more after the dam's than sire. One thing I would note also about the Watson horse, and that is the first race at Kempton was a strong race. Kinks is very highly regarded by the Channon team and the winner went down narrowly in the Lily Agnes at Chester which looked a strong renewal. The 3rd was soft ground bred and looked to hate the undulations at Chepstow the other day, so I wouldn't look too close at that ones poor run. The 8th who was badly hampered in the race was a good 4th running on in a strong Doncaster maiden last week and the 5th is apparently one of David Evans best 2yo's. It could be noted she may have not improved when she ran at Yarmouth, but the winner Carries Vision, was denied a clear run several times in a listed race at York yesterday and was only beaten 4L and Moore was easy on her when his chance had gone. The 2nd was then beaten in a photo last week behind a 2yo Kevin Ryan spoke very highly of in his stable tour. The only others from that race to run were some 3-4L behind her so I wouldn't crab her form too much. She ran 68 on debut and 69 next time, but she sets a fair standard. The Haggas filly pulls hard at home, and she fly lept out the stalls at Newmarket and pulled way too hard in a race which looked very moderate with them all in a bunch. Her figure of 68 was questionable but I do think she will run better today, but you wont want to see her pulling like she did last time. It's also worth noting that the Haggas team don't think she is as good as Carries Vision, but the pair have never worked together. This filly works with Kodinar who was only 4th in a weak maiden on debut. On form there isn't much between Luchador and the Haggas filly and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Haggas filly improve past the Watson horse, as if she settles today, she can improve on that run alone. It would only take a 75-80 horse to win it, so the race is weak, but the breeding is odd for the Fahey horse and I'm not convinced it's pedigree says sprinter. It's like they want the mare to produce horses with a bit more speed so have paired her with a 5f stallion, but it doesn't detract that she was a backward miler and has produced 7f+ horses in four foals to date, with them getting 10f at 3 and 4. The Alston horse has had a run, and did show early pace, but stopped quickly and only ran to 31, it needs to make significant improvement to win this, and the yard are not known for 2yo's. The Burke horse is sprint bred and is one of the more likely on breeding and related to a couple of 70-80 rated 5f horses, however it's a April 18th foal, which is very late in the context of this race and the small sample of 2yo's he's run have needed a run, and I must admit hooded on debut puts me off a bit. Oxygenis has only ran to 53 at best in 2 starts, so needs to find a stone to challenge the front two in the betting, whilst Bandola is bred for 6f minimum and I don't like seeing 2yo's with apprentices up first time, as they don't get the education and proper handling they need. This was a race this morning that to me, looked solid between 2 similar horses, with a preference for the Haggas filly IF she settles, pulls like she did at Newmarket and her chance is gone. There has been some support for the Fahey horse, but I have reservations regarding it's pedigree, albeit this will not take a lot of winning. Tight one for me, marginal preference for the Haggas horse, but I have it very much between her and the Watson horse, and I could only make a supporting small case for the Fahey horse, and that would be more on jockey booking and trainer form, more than the horses profile. It'll be interesting to see Andrew's opinions on why he's opposed. I fear he may have only one real danger running for him, and she's risky given she fly lept and pulled like hell on debut and if she does that today's he may find there's nothing in the line up to beat Luchador. My last pot today, as getting shouted at to leave ! Have a good un all. |
|
By:
Be inteersting what the market thinks later, though it's plenty often wrong with Fahey's newcomers. I still maintain on trainer MO's the Haggas HQ race is likely to be a better level eventually than the luchador form to date (that's not to say of couurse the Watson horse can't take a step forward on 3rd run) and On watching the Haggas horse back a few times I'd be surprised if it can't take a bigger step forward and I don't think this race will take much winning.
I think Andrew has 2 strong chances against this fav and I wouldn't rule out the Alston horse showing a bit more after potentially blowing up last time after early speed at Chester. I'm not having it as a 2 horse shoot out with even chances but that's just my opinion. |
|
By:
Andrew has layed at 2/1 I think that's a fair price, 3.6 at the moment so as things stand he's beating the price (which he has on a large number of these lays).
|
|
By:
@Striding
Andrew has layed at 2/1 I think that's a fair price, 3.6 at the moment so as things stand he's beating the price (which he has on a large number of these lays). That's because Ghosty has 1000 members on his service and he's sending it out as soon as Andrew posts, hence the quick drifts :P :P :P :P And on that note, bye, laters :) |
|
By:
domino, great analysis - you clearly know your stuff but I have to question your statement that I often find horses take more after the dam's than sire.
If, by often, you mean around 50% of the time, then you're correct. I will get back with those IS sire stats. |
|
By:
That's because Ghosty has 1000 members
Only 999 cause you aint payed your subscription yet  deepblue and king of dubai where the first two to sign up |
|
By:
Have a good day Dom
I've found these 2yo lays on here fascinating, they are not races for me in general as there are so many unknowns and huge changes can be seen from run to run (especially 1st to 2nd). You have your info then there is the pedigrees but they are certainly not watertight a lot of the time and of course trainer habits and motives are an ingredient. |
|
By:
Hi Guys,
After my disastrous lay yesterday (who really struggled to win by only 7L) and debate by 'friendly fire' both before and after, i'm hoping my selection today doesn't have the same Lamborghini gears as Threading. Never mind, another day, another Kroner. Losses are obviously inevitable in betting, the trick is ensuring profits exceed them, so i don't need to change my method of selection, and after review of several races, i have made my choice for the Saturday lay. 2.45 Thirsk Luchador A twice raced Archie Watson trained, 2 year old filly. Her debut was in a class 4 on the AW where she finished a 2.5L 4th of 10 to Lihou with Kinks a close head 2nd. Always up with the pace, she stayed on, though never looked like winning. Those that finished behind her haven't performed out of the ordinary since, although the front two have finished 2nd and 1st respectively in subsequent races. She was made 2/1 favourite in her next race, a class 5 on turf at Yarmouth. Again she travelled up with the pace and actually led over a furlong out, but was soon challenged and couldn't go with the front pair, lacking the typical sprinter pace, although she stayed on for 3rd place. The form is average, looking at those that have run since, with only a 2nd place of any note, and in my opinion, her first race probably reads better, so she didn't exactly improve. There isn't anything necessarily negative about her, and as a late April foal she will improve, but she doesn't appeal to me as a real 5f sprinting type, and may do better over 6f-7f on a stiffer track. Her sire Holy Roman Emporer is well established, but in my opinion his offspring tend to do better over further than 5f, and this is certainly the case with the dam, in fact Lochadors full sister is Voi, currently racing over middle distances. The field is now small with 7 runners, reduced by 2 since i posted earlier, and even though i hadn't considered them as potential winners of the race, it's always good to have runners rather then the reduction factor. Only 3 of the other 6 have run before, and one of them, Red Hut Red is certainly in with a good chance of winning. Lady Kinsdale ran in a much better race on debut, and showed a lot of early speed, so is another potential winner. 3 are newcomers, so very little to go on except breeding, but Akela Moon is trained by Richard Fahey, who has a good record with 2 year olds, and has a good winning strike rate at Thirsk. Concentrating on the once raced Red Hut Red, she ran in a class 4 at Newmarket, a decent field, including the winner Strings of Life, and 3rd, Cotubanama, who both ran in the listed sprint race at York yesterday, finishing in respectable mid-field places, not beaten far. Red Hut Red pulled hard in the race, was hampered, and allowed to coast home, although only beaten 4.25L. She will come on a lot for the experience. There is an indirect comparison of form, via Cotubanama and Carries Vision in the York listed race, that actually gives Red Hut Red a 0.5L beating of Luchador. Not much i agree, but bear in mind she had issues in running, and the latter had the advantage of a previous run against Carries Vision. The draw will not be such a significant issue with the reduced field, but high numbers are at an advantage over 5f, and the early pace could be from stalls 8 and 9 (Red Hut Red and Lady Kinsdale) at least, even more so with 2 empty stalls in 6 and 7. Layers only realistically have 3 potential winners of the race running for them, but that's 50% of the field, so coupled with my comments above, are reasons for the lay today. Good luck. Lay @ 3.00 (posted earlier). |
|
By:
Cheers Andrew, i'm on @3.38 in spite of it being above my 3 limit. Same stake as always, good luck hope it prevails. Don't think you should underestimate the Alston horse. I know he like's to run his 2 year olds in races in quick succession to get a handicap mark, but seems to have been money for it (as they always seems to be these days with his runners. Probably know if that is justified prior to off time.
|
|
By:
Andrew,hope you don't mind me asking this,who do you work for in Sweden,wouldn't be SKF would it
No problem BG, but no i don't work for SKF, although i know the company well. I work freelance on a contract for Saab Aerospace (in house/home) and Eurofighter in Germany (home and occasional visits). Coincidentally, if you take a look at the daily nap thread, you can read some posts from last night. |
|
By:
1 ride for the trainer it won fav
|
|
By:
Thanks for the reply Andrew,my bro in law retired from SKF about 2.5 yrs ago.
|
|
By:
Thanks for all the constructive comments guys, much appreciated
 FWIW, i like the two Crystal horses at Newbury to win, although both are short. |
|
By:
BG,
In Göteborg ? A large multi-international company. |
|
By:
deadbrain59 19 May 18 13:26
1 ride for the trainer it won fav ??? |
|
By:
striding,
db is probably referring to the jockey on the lay, who won on Shumookhi for the trainer |
|
By:
You on cardsharp today Deadbrain?
|
|
By:
FWIW, i like the two Crystal horses at Newbury to win, although both are short.
Fred went 3/1 the two Crystals  Some dirty arber had a bit |
|
By:
he's ridden loads for him though Andrew
|
|
By:
sure striding, but db only works on the last 14 days, or was it 14 hours ? The system changes occasionally
|
|
By:
It doesn't make any sense whatsoever, he's ridden lots for him even in the 14 days, twice since shumookhi.
|
|
By:
Yes Andrew in Gothenberg,he's Scottish though
|
|
By:
Luchador very weak, of course late market may change this.
|
|
By:
Andrew you got a deduction here too with the nonners?
|
|
By:
wow that has drifted massively in last 10 mins. leg fell off? now 5.2
|
|
By:
Its the domino effect...!
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
striding, yes 2.87
|
|
By:
abba read my back thread
|
|
By:
Why would Andrew want to read your shoity thread for
|
|
By:
He's actually begging people to read his rubbish thread now..get a life.
|
|
By:
oh dear that's going to cause a commotion
|