Andrews' Saturday and Sunday Daily Nap Lay

Back to the day job,Andrew

Todays lay comments for Dancing Star.

A wonderful filly in 2016 (now mare) who won 4 from 6 including the Stewards cup at Goodwood. Lightly raced in 2017 (3 times) and her overall form was pale in comparison, although she finished runner-up in a listed race at Windsor.

I suspect everything wasn't right with her in the latter part of the season, as she didn't run after Royal Ascot, although i haven't seen any media reports to confirm this. If this is the case, Andrew Balding will not want her to be given a hard race today, even more so on what may be firm ground.

Irrespective of this, in my opinion she's better in larger, strongly run races where she can be covered up to settle better, and come from off the pace. The race today is a small field of 6, and no real pace up front, so she may get unsettled and race too freely.

Additionally her main opposition are race fit.

Haydock is a galloping track, although she's won at Newmarket, so you wouldn't think the course is an issue, but she did run badly here in 2016. Maybe she's better suited to sharper tracks like Goodwood.

The owner of Dancing Star is Jeff Smith, well known in racing circles, with past legends Lochsong, Persian Punch and Chief Singer to name a few. I actually knew him well back in time, and did a lot of work for him a lifetime ago when he owned an aerospace company, although i haven't seen him, or had contact for many years. 

Finding the winner is not so easy even allowing for few runners, with the rank outsider having little chance, and Mobsta who would prefer softer ground, but can't be ruled out. I particularly like Mythmaker, a 2 time CD winner who won this race last year, has won already his season, and his run LTO finising 3.25L behind Kachy is looking good after he won by 9L yesterday (had the run of the race).

Good luck.

Thanks for your input striding, it's nice to know someone agrees on the pace and possible winner. It wouldn't suprise me if the rag went blazing off in front, and the others ignored it. 

I forgot to add to my comments, trainer and jockey form of the lay is not a positive.

Good luck.

Mythmaker graph very strange imo

early days I would think it will correct.

anything 9/2 plus near off will do me

can't see what I'm missing though if real continued weakness

perhaps a problem why it hasn't been out in 98 days (unusual).

No way Mythmaker should be the 5th in betting under these conditions today unless it's possibly had an issue since Leafy.

Ground striding

Mythmaker 4.8

let's hope it's a good un for both of us.

Wd andrew

no complaints with mine ran it's race

Well done

Thanks guys.

Dancing Star ran better than i expected in 3rd, she wasn't that far away.

Mythmaker just run out of it in 2nd beaten a neck.

Very well done awndry...brilliant. Once again..

I like the way you go about it Andrew, look at things pretty similar to myself when analysing a race then of course it's all about a price judgement.

i think you both been nicking a lot of my ideas

Race comments

Mobsta was declared a NR, probably due to the going.

The outsider Secretinthepark led, closely attended by Tommy Taylor, with the other 3 behind, including Intisaab the back marker. The same order continued until 2f out, when Mythmaker challenged. Approaching the final furlong, the front two dropped away, and Mythmaker went on looking like he could win, but was challenged by Dancing Star and Intisaab, the latter coming with a strong run on the rail, and won by a cosy neck from Mythmaker.

Dancing Star ran well and finished closer in 3rd than i envisaged, although she was receiving 9lb mares allowance (calculated 3L). She's obviously over whatever kept her off the track in the later part of last season, and assuming she comes out of the race fine, she could win a small black type race later in the season.

Daily profit £50
Running total profit (1/1) £50

Another lay tomorrow

Summary of the lay with finishing position and industry SP as follows :

Saturday 12th - Dancing Star @ 2.79 (inc. reduction factor for NR) - unplaced @ 15/8f

Morning sports fans

Flat racing takes a rest in UK today, but the sturdier bred NH teams are out in force at 3 NH meetings, albeit with lower class cards. The same could be said for the meeting at Killarney in Ireland, although there is a listed race there for the benefit of Wille Mullins.

Better quality comes in the shape of the group 3 Amethyst stakes and classic trials at Leopardstown where AOB has even more Epsom derby entrants running, so maybe Nelson or The Pentagon who race each other this afternoon will be joining Saxon Warrior next month.

Ryan Moore and AOB head to Longchamp for the French 1000 and 2000 guineas, but i can't see them winning either race. The one i do like on the card is Polydream in the 1000, and will be backing her EW if i can get around 5's on here.

Looking at the NH cards that are average at best, i didn't really notice a stand-out i could consider as a nap lay, in fact, i think it's a difficult day for backers as well today.

As a consequence, i concentrated on the flat card at Leopardstown, and even contempleted the AOB trained Magical in the 1000 guineas trial as a lay. Her 2 year form reads well enough, but in my opinion she's actually over-rated considering what she's actually won. I appreciate she did win a group 2, but she was gifted the race from the front, and happily took her revenge next time out. I could be eating humble pie after stating this, but betting is all about opinions.

Irrespective of Magical, i've decided on the lay that runs in an insignificant handicap at the same course, a world away from the blue bloods running earlier.   

4.45 Leopardstown Curley Bill

A 10 year old gelding who 5/6 years ago was running in hurdle and NH flat races respectively.

Clearly had issues over the years, in fact since 2013 he's only ran in 4 races, 2 in 2016 and 2 this year, both within the last 3 weeks. In the first of those, he won by a neck over 10f off a low mark of 70 and carried a 7lb penalty LTO when runner up, beaten 1L over 12f, the distance of todays race.

The 4 runs were all on soft to heavy going and it's apparant this is his preference, even though he did win on good 5 years ago. It's expected to be good at Leopardstown today.

His last 2 races are average form (although the winner is an improving type) and he meets better opposition today. He's the lowest rated on 77, and I suspect Noel Meade is expoilting the same mark as 5 days ago by bringing him out again so quickly. Of course he could be a blot on the handicap, but i have my doubts.

Whilst i understand there could be valid reasons for those supporting him, i'm surprised he's trading as short as he is, and considering the stable, it's a risk, but one i'm prepared to take. It wouldn't be the first bookmaker 'initiated' gamble to occur in Ireland.

The horse i think could win is the Godolphon owned Clongowes rated 96, who knows Leopardstown well, has won on firm, and been running well in better class. 

I did notice an oddity, although it's nothing to do with the race itself, but ownership of Curley Bill has changed between trainer and current owner 5 times this year !

Lay @ 2.94

13-May-18
11:42:50    16:45 Leopardstown
Curley Bill - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:125443905232 | Matched: 13-May-18 11:43:30    Lay    2.94    50.00    97.00
50.00
Matched

Good Luck Andrew