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Ive backed The last Debutante 7.05 Doncaster, i was going to have a day off but i have been tempted in by the 8/1 on here. Its a bit of a stab in the dark but i'm hoping the switch to turf will see an improvement in her.
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that should be 7/1 not 8/1
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he will win the 5.05 today
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2 at Rip for me
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gl there DB
Was thinking Carmargue looking likely to get back on track over 6f back on turf now down to this sort of mark again. Not sure 7f at Leicester will be the ticket today but it was along with Sofias Rock one that wasn't too bad on profile rating's today. Fire fighting is good at exposing chinks in rivals as will usually give a sound run these conditions against opponents that have found the level pretty tough going, 8/10 of FF wins have been on G/F or AW and rattling ground in the summer months has proven optimum in the past.Perhaps a few lbs off a bit later in the season can see another nice hcp success. Last year I often spent hours on a saturday (quite often plenty more runners than today in heart of the season) wading through them all only to sit it out and that's the case again today. gl Dan,DB and anyone else playing his runners. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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and hatters gl
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*Actually missed a firm ground run of FF form so 9/11 of his wins been on fast turf or aw.
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Jeez, just do the opposite to what I say. I go through some losing runs on these MJ threads
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My god i'm on fire
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Don't worry it won't last
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wd mate
![]() perhaps i need to loosen the parameters a bit on some of these 3yo's class 5 hcps no wins in general v good on saturday (unlike many groups as said earlier). Usually like a change or 2 with these and you said the switch to turf may be enough, well played. ![]() I'd usually be looking at a new distance and the class rise put me off too, quite well fancied in the end. Into may we go, just have a hunch there is plenty of firepower this season in the 3yo brigade so hopefully a lot more to go at than last season. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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My Systems (V4) (5) class5turf hcps no wins 7.05 Doncaster 6 The Last Debutante Norton, Francis Johnston, M 9/2 1st
Actually had it flagged but one that's wriggled through, I don't follow many just on blind stats. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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WD Dan. Franny going to Donny for just that one ride was a bit of Clue. Thought on pedigree the ground might be a bit quick so left it alone. Will look to catch it again on softer ground, hopefully at a big price.
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3 bets for me today, but Yorkidding is not one of them. Be glad to see the back of this month. Off to work again
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Three for me today
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noble manners interesting will it be backed in?
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Had some on Poets Society @ 9-2, will double up if BSP 5.7 or better.
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No firm decisions today yet...
1:55 Beverley Noble Manners Very promising debut run on the same day where Emilia James (won in a canter nto back here) and Starlight Mystery also made promising starts to their careers.A fairly big looking long striding filly, she wasn't in the mix early but notably began to get organised later in the race and it certainly looked a decent introduction. 6f looked a decent shout after that but this 5 round here with the finish and the experience under her belt should give her a big shout here.For a track that is obviously a favourite for the yard the debut stats of 3-40 rise to 10-32 for the 2yo's and of course the market is usually right on these. 2:30 Beverley Villa Tora As mentioned above the stats first time out round here with the 2yo's are not as strong as one may think given the over all record the yard has. The last winner was 26 runs ago (Fanning has had 20 attempts on these unraced 2yo's here and not yet registered since BFSP introduced).They are often either fav or in the top 2 or 3 in the betting and I just don't usually have anything on them.I did actually look at this bank holiday and from 6 2yo debutantes 2 have managed to score including cravat at this track in 2011 (from 4 runners here on this bank holiday meet The Hermitage was also denied a hd in 2009)so perhaps this is a meeting that maybe a bit more relevant than the 2yo debutantes as a whole at track. Also 4-15 2yo first timers managed to score last May (surprisingly again Fanning 0-7 from these). 2:50 Bath Poets Society This actually looks a bit obvious with a significant class drop. Strong stats for top rated 3yo handicappers in this class become stronger with the drop down so this runner has to be interesting.There were a couple of other trainers that scored pretty highly on profile for this race and they happen to be the 2 in front in the market (R Charlton, R Cowell).The latter has Evergate (2nd run for yard) who was runner up to one of MJ's on debut and also btn by Poets Society as a 2yo now a couple of lbs better for 1 1/4l, Cowell obviously does well with speedy types as they progress through career so an interesting rematch. 4:15 Beverley Mariee Can see the appeal for this one despite an out of sorts effort last time at Chelmsford. This horse should be racing fit after a few spins on the AW and a return to this trip looks highly likely to suit.Yet to win on turf but decent efforts in better races and certainly unexposed at this sort of distance.The track record for 4yo's in hcps of this class is strong and putting a disappointing looking effort behind lto has also not been a problem. 4:50 Beverley Yorkee Mo Sabee Another that's in the same sub group as the horse in the previous race on the card but this one has a number of issues.There's obviously some ability there and on a going day this horse is potentially dangerous.I would say that 6f at Ripon on his last start was probably never going to be the best fit for this one having seen it's romp at Carlisle over a mile and given the pedigree.Messed about with a bit of interference in a better class race I can certainly with the other mentioned conditions disregard that effort.The previous run at Ffos Las he didn't bounce out but was then keen (not for the first time)getting to the front and ended up fading tamely, this effort would be more concerning to me as the failure to settle going up to today's trip on a stiff track would almost certainly be curtains.The horse has won on return from lay off and has a ft hood today, IF he did consent to conserve energy today without over racing this is the sort that could just out run it's price round here with the class drop and a new distance which should suit. 5:55 Beverley Il Sicario Don't have any strong profile stats for this one in the class.Obviously has had a spin here and is very unexposed, could come on a fair bit for it's return (though yard is very strong at track with 3yo's on 1st run back).Not an obvious one that will be progressive in terms of distance and other trainers in this race are perfectly adept at getting winners at track in this sort of low class contest.Nothing against it today but not the sort I'm really looking for either. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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3 that interest me today:
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*Villa Tora meant to add that the pedigree signals for a 2yo over 5f were weak
Bit of a price watch day for me before deciding, really a bit miffed with Mariee's price when i logged on this morning, thought it was a likely looking sort but so it appears do others ![]() Yorkee Mo Sabee may well lure me in ![]() Poets Society could be a play I want to see these late markets today. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I've got 1-22 in 3yo apprentice races on turf, that was actually the last runner to qualify, Dawaa (a much better class of race than today).
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*pertaining to Il Sicario today
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nice right up striding.
the second in noble manners newmarket race got turned over in what looked a pretty weak race at salisbury yesterday. crowthorpe(fahey) needed the experience badly at lingfield when 3rd and the two in front have won since. poets dawn(tim easterby) caught my eye fto and theres been a bit of money for her. noble manners can win at around 6-4, looks a watching race at the mo. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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yes KIW that's a perfectly fair take on things.
I'm just not really a player of these, I do have a few angles in mdns/novice events but most of the ones that have showed obvious promise are going to be taken care of in the market. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Mariee looks to have a fine chance in what seems a modest event for a 7k prize but the price of 5/2 ish is not for me - good luck
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the filly who won last week "emila james" was much more professional fto than noble manners and the early 6-4 did look tempting(i don't usually bet shorties).
the 2yo's who have run so far have been relatively cheap purchases,might be worth watching for his more expensive/ascot types next 2/3 weeks. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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the poet is 2-2-1 in the month of MAY over this distance with one of the 2nd placed efforts coming on good to firm ground. going purely on speed figures, only diable d'or can beat it in this race.
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sfumato also looks a danger as he's relatively lightly raced and can improve coming from a top yard.
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Prices & 'firm' mean no play here
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thought noble manners was going to win comfortably 1f out.
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I've got to play poets society, the stats are too good to ignore around 5/1+.
2:50 Bath Poets Society, current price 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No complaints went a good lick and didn't drop out when passed certainly ran it's race.
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BSP 5.67. Looks like the layers didn't want my £200.
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As said earlier I'm a bit miffed with the price of marie, said this at 5/2 now it's 15/8 on here, not getting on now.
Will try HALF STAKES on Yorkee Mo Sabee, can have no complaints if this is stuffed out of sight it comes with the risks outlined earlier but I've had some yard revivals at this track including Ravenoe last season so will have a go at the minimum stake. 4:50 Beverley Yorkee Mo Sabee, current price 32.0 (for half stakes). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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result there MCcoy
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Yeah, but 0 from 5 with Johnston horses for me on the thread & on a real cold streak at the moment 5 winners fro my last 50 bets. Doing a stack
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come on marie or whatever yer fecking name is
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anyone else having a mare today?
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See above - lol. 0 from 4 today, 2 to go. Didn't back Marie. Looks a bit one paced at the business end, plus mark of 80 a bit high?
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Not sure there's any excuses with that one, behaved quite well and didn't look to be over racing today.
will post up the results later. |