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The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
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afternoon stato .
hoe hoe hoe  |
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ahhhh
worked it out earlier and left it good placement MJ  |
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statto got the horse and race spot on and left it on price breadnbutter
I'm sure you've left one before FFS  |
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no one else even fancied it
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So frustrating isn't it?
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stridingedge 03 May 17 11:57
Ravenhoe seems to run every 5 mins, 18 runs since last win but you could argue has not had these conditions since. ie a class 5 (this seems his level now) around a mile on turf. A lot of these have become very unreliable, the fav has been coming right down through the grades and could drop in as the ft hood (yard 1-21 with this) is on. Tellovoi is the only winner in the field above a class 4 in career but you are going back and looks plenty high enough to me. Ravenhoe when placed in fields with no lto winners in class 4 or 5's on turf is 3-7. A negative was the last run here but this was over 10f where the apprentice got no cover out wide and the horse ran to free, not surprisingly had nothing left to give a fair way out over a trip I think really stretches, especially with a stiff finish. Will see what sort of price he is nearer the time, currently 4.7 |
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McCoy i'm quite pleased i got the horse and the placement right mate, some will slip through at sp.
I don't see why that analysis deserves the usual boot from breadnbutter the last thing you want is some negative troll having a go when you've passed on a winner |
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Exactly. As I say can't do a thing right myself at the moment. Think it's affecting my confidence in making selections. When I pick em they don't win, when I don't, they do
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Swings and roundabouts McCoy the last thing you can do is lose faith and stop what you usually do because of a frustrating run.
I wouldn't be too worried about the market, plenty of the smashed up ones run like drains (kiribati yesterday and numerous horses as mentioned on fred last year) Plenty of drifters will win too. This is an sp thread, the last thing i want is to be on bottom odds too often, as it happens ravenhoe was 4.7 into 3.5, 3.8 when i left it and eased last minute to return 4.1. It's hardly the end of the world |
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lol, there you go, one over after a trade out
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sorry, wrong fred
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cardsharp 1.84 DAN
3/1 looks a monster  |
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i know, very lucky
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you said you would see what price it was nearer the off but rejected because it was too short ,but you did list negatives and positives and i could not work out from your right up whether you were going to select it or not ,finally you did make a decision and you got it all wrong .
but you did not say ,this should win but its no good to me ,then you aftertime you had it all worked out what is the min price then ? would that not be an easier way to do it ? cause i cant understand the selection process or the stats for that matter ,does MJ look at his watch and say right that's May started ,lets get some stats sorted ? yes we all get it wrong but why not just say yes or no before and stick by your call rather than say No ,but i had it all sussed ....the stable has a hell of a lot of runners that fall into this bracket . Your world is win yes/no ,not place backing or 80/20 p/w backing or laying the shortish ones in the win market so when you get it wrong you have to hold your hand up ,not aftertime you had it all worked out but ..but ... Sorry to try and hold you to account , AKA a cantankerous old sod giving the boot. |
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ok I had a min of 4.5 for ravenhoe today b&b
I did like it and pointed out that from its form of no wins in 18 runs it had not had today's similar conditions since it's last win on turf. I also pointed out that the race looked full of unreliable types and that against fields of non winners lto ravenhoe was 3-7 I had to point out the run at ponty but hinted that it may not be the track but going wide and not settling for an apprentice (I said this as many would have looked at that run in the book and thought the track was a big doubt) So it's hardly after timing putting all that together, i said i would see the price nearer the time and i let it go, sh1t happens. Everyone on here will be letting some through each week and when posting on here wouldn't offer anything about their working out on the ones they do. |
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Looked like it showed a turn of foot there at the end or would you say the others were just one paced?
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In future i will post the sort of price i am after in my musings.
as for the stats regarding month I would say if you go and do some research about what type of horse you want in each month, there are some stark differences in the age groups and what profile of runner to expect to be ready. It's a big operation and a lot of the time the same processes are carried out each season, it's why i like to follow. Of course I still have to treat each horse as an individual but these stats regarding the results and break downs of race type/horse profiles by month give me a clearer indication of likely intent. It's not voodoo |
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a good placement in a race full of unreliable sorts McCoy, conditions that haven't been met since the last win.
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Cardsharp 1.7, gotta lay some off
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getting worked up at stalls
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get him in the stalls FFS!!
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wow!!
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vwd hammered in
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nice price mate
I'll probably get slaughtered but couldn't put it up on sp |
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had a nibble odds on
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Not sure what B&B is after
Someone to tell him/her what to back ? Its a discussion thread thats all Celest done by a head We move on to next one WD price Dan |
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I just thought the after timing thing was crazy there
I said i was looking at the price nearer the off so that's pretty bloody obvious in the context of my write up on ravenhoe that i quite liked it and it was going to be price determined. |
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Always someone whining,one of the best threads on here,but someone picking holes in it ffs get a grip...........
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I'm going to watch the early prices for Gloriosus - 6.40 Mussel tomorrow, as striding mentioned earlier same sire as Cardsharp, making its debut...could be money for that one as well.
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I've got nothing at all profile wise for that 3yo mdn tomorrow DAN
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ive just started looking at tomorrow mate,if you've got nothing they i doubt i will find anything, ive got oddschecker open and will keep an eye on the market.
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Nothing tomorrow, I'm not around but the profiles aren't flagging up for the 3 runners anyhow.
I don't have much throughout the season for unraced 3yo mdns so nothing on gloriosus katebird sits in a group that has quite decent results (class 5 handicappers in the 3yo division in May) but a few cautions for me with this horse. Lack of a recent run (classed as 3 weeks) show a pretty stark contrast in this group with result to those with longer layoffs. No winners have come from a nursery lto and none of the horses off for more than 3 weeks have won when switched in class. If i really liked the horse and the profile of the race it was in I may still play but looking at tomorrow's field there are a number of darkies that could spring into life for the first time and this with the uninspiring stats in the subgroup(s) I outlined mean it's not one that's grabbing me, could well be worth a look next time though. Tailors Row I can't really get past the poor early season (up to june when they usually start to spark) with the 3yo's in 3yo+ hcps. Today's runner in this group celestation ran a screamer but it did have a marked change in trip. The results are still 1-36 for May and Tailors Row has had plenty of racing over 7f. Perhaps you could say a switch back to turf may be an angle on a more galloping track but street cry's do hit at twice the rate for this yard on the AW than turf so I'm not too sure.You can't say there's a negative on turf on the limited evidence we have just feel it might be one over a bit further this term. |
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I'm going to take a chance on Tailors Row at the price, i like the switch back to turf( mainly because it worked for me with the last debutante earlier in the week, lol), there are also some good stats for Redcar in the profile, i wouldnt be looking to back this at anything lower really but at 8/1 i will have a punt.
GL |
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I'll put the downer on Dan
Gilga fave - only a length in it Turf promise ? Dble figs with the 9 GL |
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Done the double today
Faithful Promise/Election Day GL |
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odds on only,gl
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I've backed Faithful Promise @ 11-8 as it is Proform top rated with a tissue price of 11-10. Off to work but hope to be back for the start of racing. Good luck all.
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Faves too short for me
TC interesting if the T/T bounces fave - EW AW one of more interest GL |
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Nothing to play with Faithful Promise at the price imo Fahey and a couple of the other trainers do well here also. 5-11 scored for MJ in May up there, 4 of 8 were actually debutantes.
The 3yo hcp division in May sees Musselburgh top the charts for the yard with 6-14 of these scoring since BFSP. Election Day selected last time could well have ran into one at Beverley on reappearance, the Gosden inmate Stradivarius up in trip following up in a canter over 12f. Having said that I'm not convinced there's much again to play with concerning price today and I'm happy enough to pass if he wins then so be it. The dilemma and there are going to be dozens of these over the season is Thomas Cranmer for me today. We know he fits into a strong profile group at track as mentioned earlier (though the winners are usually much shorter sp's). Hasn't done too much wrong, a nasty tumble at chester last season saw him put away for the remainder of the 2yo campaign. The return at southwell was in a race averaging 11lb better at the ratings than today's, a few early bumps when it got a bit tight from the stalls seemed to light up MJ's runner a bit and then an inside run before fading in the straight, it was far from a perfect journey in that race. Ideally with a top rated horse from this yard, the less exposed the better for me at conditions in this 3yo division of hcp in May or early season in general. If you look at horses that have only ran at today's distance once or never before you get 17-62 (9.9 expected). When you look at those that have had 2 or more runs at the distance previously in this same group you get 2-27 (5.2 expected). There's no way this allows for or rules out a selection on it's own but there's also no way exposure with certain characteristics in a horses c.v. for this yard is unimportant at various stages of their careers. It happens today that Election Day is in the hot group and Thomas Cranmer the other. I quite like Thomas Cranmer for a win or 2 this season but despite the drop in rating's of opposition here from the last run I think this isn't a bad little contest, on profiles the other trainers with the likely players in the race are equally as strong with their runners with a couple of potential improvers and Burke's that has seen plenty of better races. Pro's and con's but the sort of price where I'm going to compromise and play half stakes on Thomas Cranmer. Could easily see the 2 shorties oblige but at the risk of repetition on here they are not the sort of price I'm looking for. 3:00 Musselburgh Thomas Cranmer (half stakes), current price 10.0 gl all today |
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the Gosden inmate Stradivarius up in trip following up in a canter over 12f, *typo 10f.
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