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The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
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Going to stick with the two mentioned They are in the the right sort of price bracket for their profiles.
1:50 Newmarket(Rowley) Final, current price 10.0 4:20 Hamilton Hamster Jam, current price 10.0 Thought about a half stakes saver on Beardwood in Final's race but there's no precedent for the more fancied race fit horse to be turned over by the less fancied returning stable mate in a race of this sort of class (as opposed to multi runner races where they are all race fit at a spread of prices). gl punting today. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Mister Manduro
Handles ground, positive jock booking ?, class switch Only got to fight off the Godolf mob handed  2 in the Polly worth a chance Everything going up in dist No guarantees Moore eyecatching ? GL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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not much confidence in the market for Hamster Jam, lets see
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bloody hell, two days on the trot
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another 2nd at a decent price
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will post the p&l update later
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Miss Infinity i/r 1.77 £1,203 wow
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UL with the hammy Stride
Decent price place Blew out here with Moore | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Yes market really didn't like it with the late drift but ran a sound race for the runners up spot.Both top profile horses ran very well over the weekend but it wasn't quite to be, onward and upwards.
In hindsight was probably asking a lot for Final at this sort of meeting with potentially progressive rivals, hope MJ can find a less competitive class 2 at some point like with Yorkidding and Fire Fighting last term. Just an unraced novice tomorrow on turf so nothing to go at. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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What a poor day again, not long come in from work, watched replays & very disappointed. I see Hugh Taylor tipped Final, his only selection of the day.
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Nothing for me today.
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Nothing again for me today.
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Cardsharp taken out of the Lily Agnes tomorrow and Emilia James given box 9.
Today Il Sicario mixed messages... A class 6 hcp into a 4 is rare on turf (1-34), 0-11 lto winners but 5 2nd's so I wouldn't class this as much of a negative. If you look at a horse in this age division that's not run at the distance in a class 4hcp with SDS given the ft leg up you actually get a record of 8-10. The over all record of 3yo class 4 hcps for SDS on turf with MJ is 16-60 but there is a big divergence with rating's... top rated to 7lb lower than highest OR in race >>>>> 16-45 more than 7lb lower >>>>> 0-15 (1 placed) including 5 unplaced lto winners So SDS very strong getting on 3yo's for first time in this class of hcp, the class rise is unusual though no winners nearly half were runners up but the shape of the race with the rating's has not been where the success has been. Il Sicario Could have more under the bonnet but some strong trainers in opposition in this sort of race with likelier better sorts going forward. Will be an interesting market this evening. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fiendish hanging and pulling (including lto over shorter) been in evidence in 4 mdn runs this term, back up in trip happy to leave this at price.
Kingsley Klarion not done enough on turf for me to suggest this mark is any good still. This race does have some runners with quirks and there is a chance of a softish lead with ionization looking the only likely one with early. Despite KK mark falling, 7f is just not convincing me and on balance I can't really have it. Mariee looked a bit one paced in the finish, wouldn't be too surprised if this one ends up over further still at some point. SDS is 3-43 in this age group of handicapper that have not yet won at the distance, All in all not enough positives for a play ta the price. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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hes got one in the derby
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I can't see it DB?
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Fiendish sound race at a good lick there, lugging away from rails again.
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nothing stands out again massively on the stats for me, but i'm going to play Emilia James in the first at chester, the draw is the only thing that would be stopping be backing her but i am going to take the chance anyway.
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Emilia Jones would be the sensible play tomorrow. Won really well LTO. Storm Cry looks interesting at a big price at Chelmesford. I'll have a closer look at it on my lunch break.
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Nothing for me today, probably against a few of his mind.
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Surprised Emilia James is around 5/1 on here was thinking nearer 3/1 for this one, market looks very open.
The yard has targeted this race recently with 2 winners (from 2 attempts) both once raced victors on debuts.She Didn't quite get home at Beverley on debut after a quick start headed late on and then returned over the CD romped in making all and never looking in any danger throughout. These races are obviously full of completely unexposed runners but she's definitely a sharp early sort and though 17 of the last 20 winners of this race have been drawn 5 or below, the yard's Mukhmal defied stall 10 (technically 9 with nr) to success in 2014.Franny also scored on an 8 drawn horse (of 9) in the race for Alan Berry and he has actually partnered the winner on 4 of his 9 attempts in this conditions event. Is this price TOO good now ? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In the Chester Cup, Yorkidding and Watersmeet are both horses that give their all on the track but I just think this is a bit hot.Yorkidding has often got lost in these sorts of fields but has been very well placed when the competition in some fair hcps is not so hot in smaller fields.Watersmeet has won a hcp on the aw off 100 and is only a lb higher here but 8 of his 10 wins have been on the artificial and the highest turf winning mark has been 95, just feel this is a tough ask and I don't see the price as tempting today.
The blues Master If you fancy this one there is a good chance it could be much higher in running as has often needed rousting to get involved. I'm not sure this track is going to suit and the profile of the 2 class rise into this company, especially without a win lto is not strong. The yard however is very capable in these 3yo class 3 events and I wouldn't write off too many. MJ has seen his Election Day readily btn by the impressive Gosden runner so he knows what he's up against, Gosden and MJ were the 2 trainers that came out top in this sort of race profile and it's hard not to have been impressed with stradivarius. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think I've got to play Emilia James here at the price, Not sure how long term a prospect she will be but certainly looks very sharp now.
The market doesn't really feel right in this sort of race but if she won I'd be gutted as the race has been targeted recently and Franny has a superb record in it too. 1:50 Chester Emilia James, current price 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Emilia here
The other 3 got squeaks but not convinced GL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ran her race they pinged from 3 and 4 and dominated, EJ just had nothing left chasing a bit wider up the straight.
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nothing on the other turf runner Celestation at Bath at price tonight.
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Off topic
Curlew tonight ? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Striding - I take your points about Watersmeet but he is unexposed over two miles (only two runs) and ran a blinder in a 93k race last time when he raced against the pace bias - he is not on a giveaway mark but I have taken 11/1 ...... good luck with an interesting thread - solving the problems set by this outfit is beyond difficult ....
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On topic,number ten4me
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crepello gl it's just an opinion at the mark on turf with Watersmeet
This sort of race is not really what I am targeting tbh, more unexposed 3yo and 4yo's will take nearly all the selections, I like both of the horses in the Chester Cup just wasn't sure today. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gl b&b
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Hatters I'm not really looking at the AW this time of the year but will see if anything crops up with Curlew River.
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Both ran blinders in the Cup.
Hatters :CR later Nothing similar in my DB since BFSP to help it's quite unusual to see in general and not been seen on AW at all(a 3yo mdn winner going into a class 2). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nothing for me today.
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Cheers for that SE
Looked unusual Maybe too unconventional Even for me Good runs in the cup Blank also | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nothing for me either.
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From Hugh Taylor today:
I’m not surprised to see Zamjar well backed in the 6f handicap at Chester today (4.35) as he has plenty in his favour, but Franny Norton in the saddle on POET’S SOCIETY tips me towards him at the prices. Poet’s Society is drawn in stall 7 compared to Zamjar’s plum draw in stall 1, but Poet’s Society has been quick enough to lead over 5f lately and might be able to get to the rail before those drawn inside him. It’s actually surprising that he has been largely kept to 5f, because he stayed 6f well when making all at Chelmsford back in September, and he finished 7 lengths clear of Zamjar when runner-up in his only other start over 6f. It’s true that Poet’s Society finished only fourth at Bath last time, but that was over 5f161y, and after looking likely to be swallowed up 2f out he kept on well enough. Franny Norton has a fine record at Chester, but especially for Mark Johnston (28-139, 20%, +39pts), and he made all or nearly all the running on a remarkable 16 of those 28 winners. Poet’s Society could be a different proposition if able to get to the front back up to 6f here, and his early tactical pace probably means he has a better chance here than his odds suggest. Taylor is in a bit of form as well, having tipped 7-1 & 10-1 winners in the last couple of days. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I selected Poets Society at Bath MC. I'm quite pleased when Hugh doesn't pick my selections tbh as he often helps ruin the sp.
He had some strong profile lines in that race and showed early speed before getting caught, perhaps the run was needed for a bit of sharpness. The signals back up in class are weaker today despite being unexposed at distance but early pace around Chester is obviously always a huge plus. There's a slight niggle with poets voice as a sire for the yard at the moment, you've got 16-69 at 2 and 4-61 at 3. 0-26 under a mile when they've hit 3 so far. This horse does look to have speed today's conditions should be ok but it's something to think about with these poets voice. The Hugh factor has certainly bought the price of this one back in, It certainly wouldn't shock me if it won but I's sticking to the tried and tested and this one doesn't fit. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I might have a look at it now as Proform have it top rated with a tissue price of 5-1 (I normally avoid any race where the tissue price of the fav is 9-2 or more as being to open) but 5 have come out. here's their excuses:
Leontes Declared: Thu 11 May 11:55am Reason: Self Cert (Going) Vona (IRE) Declared: Thu 11 May 9:16am Reason: Vets Cert (Other) Brogan Declared: Thu 11 May 8:05am Reason: Self Cert (Going) Evergate Declared: Wed 10 May 9:17am Reason: Vets Cert (Stiff) Esprit de Corps Declared: Wed 10 May 8:44am Reason: Self Cert (Temperature) and here's where they were drawn: 9, 11, 13, 14, 15  which makes Poets Society adjusted tissue price 3-1 and the next best 13-2, so they have it a fair bit clear on their ratings, and even with Taylor tipping it and the non runners it's still available @ 5-1. |