yeah.£95 grand to supplement.franny states might not stay mile half?

WD Hatters

Bad pick in hindsight from me today, on to tomorrow anyway

Apologies mad a right hash of that with the mad bolding...

2:10 Newmarket (R) Love Power, current price 7.0>>> Yard won this in 2012. Going into class 5 hcps with this sort of profile up in trip always worth a look, should handle some juice in the ground and looks a likely type to strike early in hcps.

2:20 York, Izzy bizu, current price 19.0>>> Yard won this in 2015 with a once raced winner lto and had a couple of runners up efforts in last few years too.Obviously different ground but the fact race has been targeted here a plus and yard is capable of taking competitive 2yo events like this full of winners.

5:40 York Dominating, current price 16.5 Yard won this in 2015 and from poor stats generally with handicappers at york managed to find a few positives with this profile at the track including not winning lto but going up in class and the fact it's early in 3yo career getting weight. The horse itself is packed with potential stamina and could well have needed the comeback run but also perfectly possible a trip is needed now as plugged on at Goodwood having looked very one paced.

I like soldier in action and did consider playing at half stakes at around 20/1, the gut feeling for me is a few lbs off and then he could be very competitive in a nice hcp a bit later in the season, I would expect him to stay a bit further too and another try at that. Last run was very close to returning from the Nicky Henderson yard and perhaps could be more sharply prepared this time out.

I'm going to sleep on it and consider SOA in the morning for a small play as though I think giving this sort of weight to these more unexposed rivals is a big ask, That Goodwood romp last term worked out very well and it would be a kick in the guts if he did prove good enough on ground that he should handle.

Out tomorrow daytime Will look at the rest late afternoon when I'm back in.


gl all

Glut today

Better writeups than me so ditto thoughts
Soldier
Dominating
Yorky

Scots Piper on potential
Cape Love back down dist
Decent prices so EW cover on most
GL

Yorkriding 7.30 Hamilton

Lots of boxes ticked, won at track, 4 wins on going, 3 wins over distance, 2 wins with jockey, down in grade, 2 wins in May,

should get a good run for our money

Yorkidding's race was previously the braveheart listed hcp race won twice by the yard 2008 & 2012, changed to a class 3 status in 2015.

Top Weight Class 3 handicappers for Yard dropping from 2's, 6-15 on turf. the 3 above in market obviously the main looking potential vs the established form in the book.Corton Lad should set the pace and hopefully footlight will be up just off helping to push it.

6/1+ looks a fair shout to me

7:30 Hamilton Yorkidding, current price 7.4

Not many of them out to do much today.

Over to you joe to rescue the day at Hammy!

Yes have done Dan

Ran her race not quite good enough tonight

Bank dented
On we go

2 today
Potential
TOS & Beren
GL

*The Berengaria first seasonal run stats for 3yo's were for 3yo+ hcps in the better class hcps. The 3yo stats in a lot of groups can be very different with the age classification of race so I often like to look at them separately.

Saturday's are also a micro group in a lot of respects, you would think because of the likely competitiveness and better class of many of the races as opposed to a lot in the week.

eg 3yo's returning to the track that season are 2-51 in class 2's and 3's on saturday with only 8 placed

In June and July the general stats in these higher class hcps improve on saturday's

Think they'll be chuffed with TTS there made up a lot of ground. Bags of stamina in pedigree, ont to keep an eye on.

Yard won that Musselburgh edinburgh cup race 3 times from 6 running's up in trip Dan, is in that.

14/1 on Paddyp0wer

Interesting looking 2yo debutante runs at Ripon in the opener today (2:00)...

Musbaq

Early days for sire with nothing to go on over here but himself managed to win on debut over 5f before success in grade 1's over a mile and a mile and a half (Belmont stakes), dams sire medicean so on paper it all looks pretty good.

The yard had run 6 2yo debutantes here in novice events and had 2 wins and 3 seconds from them, all last season. May sees a 2yo debutante strike rate in these races so far of 6-23 (26%), obviously the 2yo categorisation towards more novice events only came in last season so evidence will gradually build from here.Taking on lto winners as is the case today with these has seen 3-9 in the winners enclosure.

Sheikh senior obviously doesn't have the numbers with the yard now but is 6-30 with unraced 2yo's so not too shabby, interestingly all 6 winners from 20 runners have been on straight tracks.

An interesting factor here is that Kit Marlowe who has looked green as grass on both runs (yesterday jinked quite sharply left from stalls exit and looked unfurnished throughout in newbury conditions event) was a valiant runner up to this Godolphin favourite today Way Of Wisdom when taking in a Newmarket mdn on debut.Of course this Godolphin horse could come on a ton but it is interesting it's been kept to novice company after mdn success rather than being raised in class.However you look at it that's a pretty good line in for MJ with his charge in today's race and with decent stats and pedigree behind it perhaps it could unfold that this favourite is taking too much out of this market.

I've done a fair bit of work on the 2yo's from a profile perspective and uncovered some interesting trends, most I will still find plenty short enough to actually select but today's runner and price has tempted me in.

2:00 Ripon Musbaq , current price 10.0

Cheers Virgin, would be a lot easier if they all ran on paper , hopefully this one been pishing all over Kit Marlowe at home.

that#s why i don't tend to select many 2yo's

Gl Hatters

date	course	class	selection	BFSP	pos	rnrs	dist	race return	total returns	staked	ROI
19/04/2017	Beverley	4	Election Day	6.28	2	6	6l	-£10.00	-£10.00	£10.00	-100.00%
24/04/2017	Pontefract	5	Pennington	10.48	8	8	30l	-£10.00	-£20.00	£20.00	-100.00%
01/05/2017	Bath	4	Poets Society	5.67	4	8	2.25l	-£10.00	-£30.00	£30.00	-100.00%
01/05/2017	Beverley	4	Yorkee Mo Sabee	28.40	9	10	14l	-£5.00	-£35.00	£35.00	-100.00%
05/05/2017	Musselburgh	4	Thomas Cranmer	8.28	1	9	nk	£34.58	-£0.42	£40.00	-1.05%
06/05/2017	Newmarket(R)	2	Abareeq	15.80	4	9	3.25l	-£10.00	-£10.42	£50.00	-20.84%
06/05/2017	Goodwood	5	Alexander M	11.50	2	12	0.5l	-£10.00	-£20.42	£60.00	-34.03%
07/05/2017	Newmarket(R)	2	Final	13.50	5	12	4.25l	-£10.00	-£30.42	£70.00	-43.46%
07/05/2017	Hamilton	5	Hamster Jam	23.00	2	11	1.25l	-£10.00	-£40.42	£80.00	-50.53%
10/05/2017	Chester	2	Emilia James	7.47	4	10	2.75l	-£10.00	-£50.42	£90.00	-56.02%
19/05/2017	York	1	Izzy Bizu	14.38	11	13	11l	-£10.00	-£60.42	£100.00	-60.42%
19/05/2017	York	4	Dominating	20.11	8	11	17.5l	-£10.00	-£70.42	£110.00	-64.02%
19/05/2017	Hamilton	3	Yorkidding	5.80	3	8	sh,nse	-£10.00	-£80.42	£120.00	-67.02%
21/05/2017	Ripon	5	Musbaq	12.34	5	7	17.5l	-£10.00	-£90.42	£130.00	-69.55%

selections	14
wins	1
expected wins BFSP	1.36
avg odds	13.07

Not a good week,yard pretty quiet(despite the obvious thrill of Permian) last fortnight.Only Yorkidding ran with any real credit of the four.

Yesterday's sheikh snr 2yo debutante good looker clueless and slow from stalls

Today's very green preliminaries again good looking type tons of speed gets gubbed at 1.01 for 40k+