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The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
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sitting out again Hatters , gl
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Rebel been weak since apparent confidence earlier.
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Interesting 2yo at Catterick tomorrow Rebel Assault fits a group seeing 8-18 fto scorers but I'm still not sure I can bring myself to select something I've never seen before!
make that 9-19, bolted up  |
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Pished it
9/19 Worth going along next time  |
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Long time since I've seen a debutant filly ping the gates like that.
2 lengths ahead after a dozen yards |
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Yes may prove to not have beaten too much but very nippy from the stalls.
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Gone in again on Poets Society after backing it last time. Managed to get most of my bet taken @ 11-4 although not all.
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Just come in from the dentist and watched the replay - very disappointing.
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Normally I stay well clear of the MJ runners but unfortunately I backed Poet's Soc today - it would appear nothing changes much.
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No, plus £80 quid done at the dentist
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Like a lamb to the slaughter I'm back in again today. Not looked at the evening racing yet but have backed Alexandra M 5.10 Haydock. Asked for £200 @ 11-2 with the Tote but they would only let me have £90, which amazes me as I've lost so much money with them. Had the rest @ 9-2 with 365, who I have won money with but never restrict me - work that one out. I actually like Moneyoryourlife as well which has a similar profile to Alexandra M ie ran well from arguably a poor draw at Goodwood, same trip & prize money, but I'm loathed to back more than one in a race. I've watched Alexandra M's last race & after having a wide passage from a poor draw thought it ran well. It has the one draw today, which my pace/bias indicator shows win half the amount of times they should BUT: should lead - and front runners have a positive expectation & profit to BSP. All the others to its outer are hold up horses apart from Baker Street drawn 10. Hopefully Franny will get him out, try & make all & if he gets beat, so be it. Good luck all.
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Picked the wrong shorty yest with Rose getting the champers
Shedload today to aim at Ones of a bigger price Pennington worth another chance Comedy School big jump in dist Queen In Waiting on the up ? Pumblechook new everything Star of Lombardy consistent - better ground Kiribati up dist on better ground ? Over to you Stride if all these go down |
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Pennington been flagged up Hatters. Lightly raced and unexposed up in trip,down in class to basement level. Last run was blown very early when completely losing tract on the bend at Ponty, not the first horse ever seen to do that round there. Some of the mdn form close up to much higher rivals than facing here and I agree is worth another chance today in double figs odds.Open looking race and likely most not going to go too far.
Quite liked Queen In Waiting a harsh draw though (14) Kiribati nibbled quite a bit last time but ran no race at Brighton, perhaps all at see on the track, certainly wouldn't be first horse to run like stink there and transform nto. Poets voice 2yo's done well for yard, still seem to be jinxed at 3 unless over more a trip (0-28 a mile or less), plenty of them out today.This one sees a new trip and has form over shorter suggesting this sort of mark could be very feasible, of course after the last run there is always plenty of risk associated but we know plenty of these can bounce back in the lower grades particularly. Let's hope we can get Pennington in early and then relax, will make decisions later on a few of the others. 3:20 Bath Pennington, current price 15.0 |
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Charlton has the MO at bath in that 3:20 race, be interesting how strong his is later.
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Like the resolution shown by Thomas Cranmer, that fahey horse it beat last time was effectively 5lb better in at the weights that day and going into a race now against his elders could be usefully treated.
Price looks about right though and perhaps still a tad early in the season for the best expectations with 3yo's against their elders.  |
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Rufus been well supported early in the conditions event at Ponty (7:30)
Has a bit of a poor stat to overcome. The normal MO is to up lto winners to this class/type of race. Only 4 have tried the conditions route on debut (only 4 attempted) or after a lto win to give 13-51 25.5%, expected 9.55 wins. All other placements see a record of 1-75 with 7.9 expected winners from these. Of course the yard will know a lot more about these runners so early in their careers but the omens are not great, interesting if this confidence holds come race time. |
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^ Rufus King
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pennington very tame
not much further to drop there in a weak looking race |
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As you would say se - it's just not happening. I do not know what it is, but I just cannot win with Totesport. In fact, when they're biggest price on one I fancy I should do the opposite and lay it. Dream machine tipped by Hugh taylor btw.
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They'll say how in form the yard is if this other shorty goes in in the Musselburgh feature!
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Storm Cry not got the worst profile here but etiquette would suggest not tonight
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Going to play half stakes on the 8:10 and 8:40 races at Musselburgh.
SOL should be much more comfortable back on this faster ground and is well worth a try at this trip, looks like one that gives everything and the others will hopefully have to battle very hard to get past. Mentioned kiribati earlier and though confidence not great at present with this type I would be more annoyed seeing it win at this sort of price than having a go. 8:10 Star of Lombardy half stake 8:40 Kiribati half stake |
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perm any 8 from 10 tomorrow
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2:20 Haydock Yorkidding Very tough mare seems to relish the job, selected on here last time and a good chance will run another sound race back up in trip on this rattling surface.Punished by returning to career high mark and gut feeling is probably will come up against something a bit better treated today.
2:55 Haydock Mailshot Has shown more on the AW so far and is back down to the last winning mark in that sphere on turf today.Suspicion that this one could well be seeing a longer trip soon judging on this seasons turf exploits. Masham Star Plenty to suggest this could be a tough mark against lesser exposed rivals today and will probably need to drop a few lbs before being competitive in all likelihood back up in trip. Rusumaat This one ran some excellent races last season in class 2 events, notably at Glorious Goodwood and then runner up in a valuable stakes race at York.On profiles If not winning lto it is often preferable to have run to at least stay on the same mark, with a lb or 2 drop even better.This horse is now on a career high mark without winning since last june but on the other side the trip to me looks pretty likely to suit if not now then very soon. There is a big spike in these 3yo hcps for horses trying the distance for the 2nd time in this class of race. Five expected winners from 65 runners and the yard has actually sent out 10. Of these 10 winners 8 of them were not successful on that first attempt at the new trip. 3:10 Goodwood Sutter Country As with Masham Star plenty of evidence to suggest this is a tough mark in hcps against far less exposed opposition and no success of runners dropping into this grade of hcp from conditions races Town Charter Could be interesting this season, not a normal MO (1-47, 5 expected) seeing first run up as a 3yo in this class of race, the winner in this group had won it's mdn on last run at 2.Looks likely this test will come a bit early. Aardwolf Hard to find value with lto winners in this grade of race that won a class 2 last time, the overall sample shows them under hitting the expected levels.I quite like this horse as mentioned earlier in the season and was expecting him to be seen to best effect up in trip (certainly has the pedigree for that). My feeling on that Donny success was that the other jocks gave him too much rope dictating no more than a steady tempo, I can't see that being the case here.I'm sure this one will win a race or 2 up in trip this season but not for me today on the follow up. 3:45 Goodwood Galapiat A promising import to the yard looked very impressive romping to a brace of class 3 wins before coming unstuck in a group 2 newmarket, this doesn't look much of a different task today, certainly not a weak listed event.The ground has to be a slight issue (not many of yards don't seem to relish fast ground) but there isn't on paper much alternative pace and a small field around Goodwood dictating the tempo is never a bad thing.Yard is 2/2 at track since BFSP with these older listed horses and today will help to suggest exactly what sort of ceiling this one may have (need another run on softer too if running poorly). The others today either not a price or not a profile I'm after. Wouldn't be surprised if Galapiat runs better at Goodwood but the race looks pretty hot to me again and perhaps this ground is not ideal either, Did think about playing but have passed. 2:55 Haydock Rusumaat, current price 9.4 Gl anyone playing today. |
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Just one for me today: Sofia's Rock 5.10 Haydock. My brother has had a good whack on Voski, last race Chester. He was very taken with its first run. Managed to get him some, 5-2, 9-4 & 2-1 y'day. See it's best priced 7-4 in a couple of places but generally, 5-4/6-4. Good luck all
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ROFL
think the mare has actually got there this time in a close call  |
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as you said very tough mare
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Rusumaat up next for Kingscote price gone
break for me if that disappoints |
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just how many times do you keep at it nellie
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what a mare
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Masham Star for me. Kirby has been in great form
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Helps make the pace for mine hopefully dibdob
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Rusumatt has been tipped up by one of the tipsters that usually cause the price to drop (ben linfoot) I can't remember the last time an MJ horse that was tipped actually won. GL
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Cue a mailshot win now
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At Last something goes right
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Won easy. WD. Can't complain with some place money
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sure the other 2 yard mates will win races but that was the clear profile pick today!
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flying
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WD Striding, as you say something's gone right
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Nice one se
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