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The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...

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By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 14:57
Hatters, I know we obviously want nice prices but does Fiendish seem TOO big with it's profile Confused, this would be miles bigger than any other Sheikh horse with similar 3yo handicapping profile that has won.

Doesn't look right to me
By:
McCoy Carp
When: 22 May 17 14:58
Had a bit on Il Sicario, but I'm seriously out of form Sad Was a toss up between that & Arcadian Angel.
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 15:04
John Quinn thwarted us a bit on here last season McCoy he has decent stats at following up this level from mdns.

I don't know if it means anything but Carlisle has been poor for class droppers in my DB, 4 winners from 50, BF market indicating 10.4 expected, a small sample but a big difference actual/expected.

something to keep an eye on

gl with IS
By:
McCoy Carp
When: 22 May 17 15:13
Maybe because they have to carry more weight over a stiffer track?
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 15:17
One of those successful Carlisle class droppers runs today Yorkee Mo Sabee in the 5:25. Ran much better at Beverley last time than before, scorching a trail before tiring late over further. Sees a similar drop in class to same mark as last season here when romping home over a mile.

Fast ground is not proven though sire stats are very good (good or faster) and there are a few other potential early pace options here if trying to blast out and make all again.

This was the main one i was thinking of playing today
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 15:47
I'm going to ignore this class dropping stat at Carlisle and play Il Sicario too.

Away from this track the drop is a good angle and there is still little exposure at the trip, course should definitely suit. JQ's pretty weak in mkt to follow up, many last season were smashed this profile.

3:50 Carlilsle Il Sicario
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 15:48
8-17 with these class droppers 4's to 5 in this age hcp
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 15:51
*when fav in exchange mkt
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 15:53
Sad

not happening
By:
McCoy Carp
When: 22 May 17 15:58
Just cannot buy a winner at the moment, cannot break out of the losing run that has been going on for over a month now. At least my 5.7 BSP bet had no chance of being taken - unfortunately had some 11-2 earlier. Thought Arcadian Angel was going to win for a moment - that would of really rubbed it in Sad
By:
deadbrain59
When: 22 May 17 16:26
nice maktoum winner,Wink
By:
deadbrain59
When: 22 May 17 16:26
nice maktoum winner,Wink
By:
madhatters
When: 22 May 17 17:39
There to take chances SE
Ground a poss issue
So is Kirby/Cox saver
16 EW
Predict the unpredictable Grin
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 17:44
Gl Hatters at least Yorkee didn't win would have been a slap in the face but Il Sicario was a poor late change of mind Sad

The next 4 weeks are tough going with handicappers, only around a 9% sr expected.

This jumps up to approx 18% the 4 weeks after.

I might take a nap Grin
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 17:45
The 2 mdn runners today ran belting races at prices.
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 17:47
*seyaadi novice not mdn
By:
deadbrain59
When: 22 May 17 18:41
5/6, 1/1 odds on.
By:
madhatters
When: 22 May 17 20:25
Too left field Grin
Wake you in a month
By:
stridingedge
When: 22 May 17 20:48
Won't be doing too many till then mate Wink
By:
madhatters
When: 23 May 17 12:10
Alarm went off
Open race
Good as chance as any ?
Up in dist on the 'soft'
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 12:15
up in dist?
By:
madhatters
When: 23 May 17 12:19
On soft as against GF/FM
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 12:46
Don't find any strengths at the track with this type.
Soft could help but may be a complete blow out

class rises this type + OR rise for not winning over same distance pretty weak in 4's (no class risers winning 3yo hcps at Nottingham in my DB but only 12 runners)

Just a bit wary with the usual expected slow build into the Peak season next few weeks with this sort. You could have done your b0ll0x following these handicappers recently after that quick hot spell early May.

A lot of these stats are too niche and small to place much faith in but that sort of adds weight to hang around for bigger groups number's wise that look much more trustworthy season after season especially in a spell that is often pretty quiet.

So nothing against today's runner but on profiles nothing strong either.

Gl Hatters Wink
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 12:47
Thank god for Permian Hatters at least you caught that one Wink
By:
madhatters
When: 23 May 17 12:55
Maybe i will just keep to Group company Grin
In minus overall even with that one
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 12:58
I knew something was bugging me with this one today.

trainer runners at track that day 1 68-777(8.75%) PL BF -£180.82 (ROI -23.27%), expected winners 88, actual 68.
trainer runners at track that day = 1 16-85 (18.8%) PL BF +£28.95 (ROI 34.05%), expected winners 12.7, actual 16.

So in this next 4 week spell that is traditionally pretty quiet with handicappers under 10%, the 1 runner angle looks like it could be quite significant

Decisions Decisions...
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 13:07
* should have been trainer runners at track that day  1 68-777(8.75%)
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 13:09
Won't let me do less than, more than mathematical signs for some reason Devil

above should be not equal to 1
By:
McCoy Carp
When: 23 May 17 13:09
Had a look at Celestation as it fits my criteria for a bet, but have left her. Ground is soft (but drying out) but it's her last run that has put me off - but isn't that Johnston horses all over?
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 13:14
Confused

kicked a long way out and got caught only btn 2 1/2l, Bath a testing finish even on fast ground

I'm not sure it was that bad a run was it McCoy and despite the class rise is actually still top rated which isn't that usual.
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 13:14
Confused

kicked a long way out and got caught only btn 2 1/2l, Bath a testing finish even on fast ground

I'm not sure it was that bad a run was it McCoy and despite the class rise is actually still top rated which isn't that usual.
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 13:17
Conflicting signals and ground ? = No play for me, don't like watching these ones though at this sort of price!
By:
madhatters
When: 23 May 17 13:18
I wondered abt the formula Grin
Looked the same
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 15:26
Watching this one through fingers over eyes

feature race albeit only 6k

only runner at track

Mischief
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 15:33
not much to sweat on with that one.
By:
madhatters
When: 23 May 17 16:37
Well left SE
Not much sweat on it full stop Laugh
Next !
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 16:57
Haven't profiled the race yet but Rainbow Rebel ran a sound race latest start back up in trip for the Zetland Gold Cup (next monday), would fit a decent general profile for a class 2 this time of year if taking up that engagement.

The 2's and 3's with certain characteristics a bit more appealing on their strike rates this time of the year, if any are flagged up will definitely play them.

Interesting 2yo at Catterick tomorrow Rebel Assault fits a group seeing 8-18 fto scorers but I'm still not sure I can bring myself to select something I've never seen before!
By:
stridingedge
When: 23 May 17 17:00
2yo thursday even
By:
stridingedge
When: 25 May 17 10:08
In Rebel Assault's race (seems like I could have been onto something with this one)

2.20 11 Wirral Girl (bitten) Shocked
By:
madhatters
When: 25 May 17 13:40
Poets today
Bit short
Interesting booking for Baileys
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