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The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
The Mark Johnston Turf Thread 2017...
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another winner
  , onwards and upwards  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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for me so far on this thread
Bets = 13 Wins = 5 S/R = 38.46 % P&L SP +10.63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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yes amazing stuff Dan, well played.
keep a running total for the season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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i have no doubt my figures will be a lot worse by the end of the season but i will bask in my glory for now
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3yo's certainly clicked in earlier this season, let's hope it's a sign of things to come. Couldn't be more different to last season 2-43 to this point in the 3yo hcps and 5-28 this.
I'm ok with letting Starlight Mystery and La Casa Tarifa through at the likely prices today, they just aren't in the pond I'm fishing in. There have been 4 winners in the last 4 days (from 7 runners) on turf in the 3yo hcp division and they obviously need looking at closely. Kiribati a 2yo mdn runner lto that didn't win coming into a 3yo hcp sees a record of 3-17, was really quite surprised to see this figure of runners so low, the last winner was in 2011 but sample sizes are very small just interesting that it's not something done very often. The 3 winners (from 14 runners) had all never ran at today's distance, in effect you've only seen 3 runners ever follow the path of this horse since BFSP. Poets Voice has been markedly better at 2 than 3 so far for this yard as a sire 13-57 the former and 3-48 the latter (0-20 a mile or shorter as a 3yo) so this is something to consider. This runner doesn't fit the conventional, that doesn't mean I have any real negative but in terms of profiles or my thoughts on the horse as an individual, nothing is standing out. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Xrated If we look at 2yo mdn winners coming into the 3yo division of hcp we have a decent 8-34 (for a small return at BFSP). 7-26, 13 placed of these were going up in distance and 6-25 of these winners were seeing a new trip too, the other winner had gone up in trip to today's distance having raced over it once before.
Usually you would be expecting to see a rise in distance on the 3yo hcp bow with this group and pretty much always at a brand new trip too. The other thing with today's runner here is the jockey booking. Of course this lad had a winner yesterday in the apprentice event at Beverley so it will be interesting to see how he is used. The fact is though these 2yo mdn winners going into 3yo hcps have never seen a claiming jockey used. This unusual scenario doesn't mean I have anything against this horse per se but it's not a runner i have anything strong profile wise for. So today a pair of unusual profiles, I'm sure plenty will give both a chance on the basis that the 3yo's have burst into life in the last few days but I'm not playing either. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Same here striding. Nothing for me today on turf. Although I do fancy addicted to you at Chelmsford.
GL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Just looking at the aw now Dan
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I'm with the unconventional
Kiri & X rated Doubted the jock yester so credit there Gelds, 1st hcp In prof just i believe So far  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gl hatters
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napped 2.00 br, better pull his finger out on this one
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Gl DB, a win and one touched off so far by SH from the 3 promising debutantes on the 19th april (today's the last to run again). I just can't judge these sorts of prices.
hatters..would be interesting to get first time gelding stats, I have the overall gelding figs but can't break them down by number of runs since gelding. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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For his 2yo's that have raced once and not won.
those returning at evens or less 14-33 (42.4%) P/L BF -9.97, ROI BF -30.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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*on turf since BFSP
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mines based on betting 2 clear none handicap
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So is this starlight fantasy gunna win SE ?
a simple yes/no tia | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Boooooooooooom
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yes breadnbutter
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I won't win on his odds on shots in the long run with this profile but I'm big enough to admit it.
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Thats more like it SE ,straight to the point and forthright answer ,no mibbies aye mibbies nawe and a short story of superlatives .
WELL DONE ,i like your new approach | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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you are a funny old sod
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Cud spend a day going thru all nags SE now that RP seems to be showing
Altho i'm told MJ likes his stats nearly as much as you A missive to the Kingsley Krew might get a minion to reply | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Going to take a chance with Cardsharp today. The sire sprint stats are pretty good, i am a bit worried about the ground but this looks a weak maiden and might not take much winning.
GL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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pass but gl
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I'm glad I got on early the price is disappearing rapidly!
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No Johnston horses for me today. Just want to stop the rot, had 8 consecutive losing days, not checked back, but think that must be a record for me. Done some serious dough. Good job I don't chase
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Gl Dan
lonhro 5-18 5f, MJ responsible for 4 of these (from 15 runs) yard debutante winners from these rah rah (won 3 times over 5f in all) and Plagiarism a couple of seasons back. 2-12 at brighton with 2yo debutantes (since BFSP, 3-14 going back to 2003) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Ravenhoe seems to run every 5 mins, 18 runs since last win but you could argue has not had these conditions since.
ie a class 5 (this seems his level now) around a mile on turf. A lot of these have become very unreliable, the fav has been coming right down through the grades and could drop in as the ft hood (yard 1-21 with this) is on. Tellovoi is the only winner in the field above a class 4 in career but you are going back and looks plenty high enough to me. Ravenhoe when placed in fields with no lto winners in class 4 or 5's on turf is 3-7. A negative was the last run here but this was over 10f where the apprentice got no cover out wide and the horse ran to free, not surprisingly had nothing left to give a fair way out over a trip I think really stretches, especially with a stiff finish. Will see what sort of price he is nearer the time, currently 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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You'd think that Celestation had a lot going for it today on profiles being a 2yo winning it's mdn going up in trip as a 3yo. The Chester mdn form has not worked out to much of a degree so far with 1 class 5 winner from 16 subsequent runs out of it.
More of a concern for confidence in backing this one today are the stats in these 3yo+ hcp races for the 3yo's in May. 8-100 with just under 14 expected in the market. Amazingly no lto winners (only 3 attempted) in this month in these races but it shows it's not a common mode of operation here. If you move on a month the figs take a huge jump, it;s not impossible it's random but this looks highly unlikely. I just couldn't have any confidence here today and you have a couple of strong yards with this sort in opposition. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Yalta
Over all a tricky one to assess looked a bit classy after first 2 runs,later the Glorious Goodwood romp looked pretty exciting and for me was a bit of a shock. Didn't seem to cut much ice up in grade after or indeed back into a group 3 on last start. The early 2yo racing 6f wins would usually suggest this horse would be getting further this year, perhaps going back up in trip from the minimum and a bit further this term will see him more competitive again. For today this competition looks pretty hot to me, we see 7-46 on turf for the grade in the 3yo only division and notably 6 of these were trying a new distance. None of these 3yo's in the grade had run less than twice with 0-18 (3 placed) for these. An interesting runner this term but not one I'm totally sure about either. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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*None of these 3yo's in the grade had run less than twice
that season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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You'd think a break would beckon for Rav
Celest doing summat diff with dist for me Fave got to prove as good on turf - may well do Improvement possible in all | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Must be half a sleep today lumped in the 3yo+ mdns in with the handicappers.
for May with the handicappers should not have been 8-100 but 1-35 for 3yo's in 3yo+ opposed to same month 3yo only hcps 63-471 The intent just seems completely different | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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back later off for some lunch
gl today | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Excellent stuff striding.
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Cardsharp now 5/4. I backed it at 3/1. I wouldn't of been a player at 5/4.
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Nice price DAN
no good to me at sp another lonhro at musselburgh tomorrow | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Should start seeing a few debutantes in these novice races now.
Early days since last seasons change in the mdn/novices (used to be really rare races) configuration. Debutantes 8-40 These running in may/june 8-30 2nd or 3rd in betting in races with powerful yards seems to have seen a bit of value looking through the races so far. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Left ravenhoe at price
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