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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
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I've had two losers also. I've backed Judy Woods in the 6.00, bad draw to overcome tho.
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Cheers KC
Good luck saddo. Trainer requested that she go to post early. Keen goer? I notebooked her on debut at Beverley. Dam's side not short of stamina. |
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Nosebanded today
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Unlucky saddo, went odds-on in the run.
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The profits have ebbed away and there's no doubting the thread could use a winner, so I'm not sure what I'm doing selecting in a competitive Newmarket handicap
 Strong Steps, 1pt win @ 10-1, 3.30 Newmarket Strong Steps was making his debut for Roger Fell in the Lincoln consolation race 'The Spring Mile' having been bought out of Hugo Palmer's yard for 8,000 gns, and it looks like his new connections have bought shrewdly as he ran really well to finish sixth and do best of those who raced towards the seemingly unflavoured stands' side (he was drawn 19, the first five home were all drawn in single figure gates). One possible indication of how much of a disadvantage the stands' side was that day, is that Nimr who raced hard up against stands' rail and ended up well beaten, has since come out and gone down only narrowly on AW Finals Day to the 110 rated Sovereign Debt (albeit it could just be Nimr's a better horse on synthetics). Strong Steps had the well supported Sacred Act (who also raced stands' side, and reopposes today) behind him, and although the latter may not have been suited to chasing the pace (both wins have come when held up), Strong Steps at three times the price is taken to confirm the form, even though it's a slight concern they were used a promising 7lb claimer that day to ease his burden but aren't today. |
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Looks like there's been a bit of an early move for today's pick, even allowing for the 15p Rule 4.
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Sacred Act, 1pt win @ 100-30, 3.30 Newmarket
I've decided to have a saver on Sacred Act; he travelled quite well for a long way in the Spring Mile, just in front of Strong Steps on the perceived 'wrong' side of the track, but maybe he'd just done a tad too much in chasing the leaders and /or the run was needed. For a horse who has been sparingly raced, a relatively quick return to the track is a slight concern, but he clearly retains potential to improve further if remaining sound. I note his Sandown win when it appeared he had any amount in hand despite the narrow winning margin, was the only time to date he's raced on ground officially given as 'good'. |
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The decision to have a saver on Sacred Act looked a good one when he came with what appeared a promising challenge (traded 1.3 IR) but he didn't find what looked likely and couldn't even hang on to second in the end.
Strong Steps ran like a hairy old goat, looking like he wasn't happy on the track / ground and wanting to hang, ultimately finishing well beaten having been up there early. The bottom line is -2 on the day and the thread slips back into the red. Running Totals P/L : -0.75 Win stat: 5/34 (15%) Place stat: 12/34 (35%) Points staked so far: 60 Points lost on multiples: 7 (included in overall P/L) |
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Azam, 1pt win @ 9-1, 5.20 Newmarket
I thought Azam shaped a good bit better than the bare result on his debut at Newmarket last September, not getting a clear run a furlong out when trying to challenge before keeping on well for fourth and seeming to finish with plenty left in the tank. It was disappointing he failed to build on that promise when only fourth and a beaten short-priced favourite on his next start at Nottingham, though it's likely he did too much from a wide draw on the front end. He did however confirm his debut promise when wearing cheekpieces for the first time and winning easily over 10f switched to the AW at Kempton, taking a lead on that occasion before striding clear from 2f out. His debut run strongly suggests to me there's no issue with turf and this scopey sort remains a horse whose limitations have yet to be exposed, so at the prices he gets the vote, in what is admittedly a race full of interesting and unexposed types. |
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Just seen that St Hugh has gone a whole two points on Gosden's other runner in the race, Middle Kingdom.
And I note Middle Kingdom is owned by the China Horse Club, which apparently is made up of numerous billionaires. No doubt big Johnny G will be keen to get a good 'un for them! |
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I've moved the market again, Azam has almost doubled in price
 So what I've decided to do, is press up and have a point EW at 16s! See if I care! Azam, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.20 Newmarket |
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Rosamaria, 1pt win @ 12-1, 6.20 Beverley
A chance for the minimum stake is taken on Rosamaria on her first start for Julie Camacho. She's still a maiden after ten starts but showed enough last season in handicaps when trained by Mark Johnston to suggest she should be up to winning one off her current mark. The notebook run came at Haydock last June when she was arguably unlucky not win, being denied a clear run before being badly hampered close home when trying to squeeze between horses. Rosamaria followed this effort up with a good run at Hamilton when runner-up to a mare who was dropping in grade, with two subsequent winners behind her. Her form tailed off in two further runs last season, including on her sole start for Michael Dods, so starts 2017 with a bit to prove following a further trainer change, and there's also a concern she may prefer the ground on the easier side (as it was at Haydock), but she does have form on good to firm (when a respectable fourth on her reappearance last season) and she has the inside stall to work from here, while it's encouraging that her new trainer recently had a winner with one returning from a 6 month break. |
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gl with rosamaria a headbanging horse for me last season with MJ ran quite nippy and free on the front a few occasions for MJ, would be apt if she can get it to go in on his fav track
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Cheers striding. I nearly left it because of the ground concern, but the price and that run style from the inside draw round here have suckered me in
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I have a confession George
Not only have i made a mistake but it's one I and another poster on my 2016 MJ thread made, I was thinking of Rosy Morning not Rosamaria, I've just refreshed myself with both and i do remember yours but Rosy Morning was the real nippy type that tried that looked sure to have a 7f race in it from the front. Rosamaria just got a bit disappointing but it would be dangerous to write off for new yard and at this sort of level. gl anyway mate   |
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Rosamaria did try to make all on some of her runs last season, so it'll be interesting to se what they decide to do from trap 1.
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Yes i do remember it after looking back over it's form, I actually had rosy morning note booked for 7f after it got collared freewheeling round the ponty mile, this was the horse i was picturing as your selection falsely. Rosy Morning actually got the 7f on it's last run but very weak in the betting totally bombed at epsom, I'll probably have to give it another chance.
With regards rosamaria I certainly remember that haydock run you alluded to, there was blue murder on here that evening. |
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And it was deffo on the soft side that night, which me made think at the time is this the key to her, cuz she had travelled through the race really well, and had she got the luck probably would have won?
I've just been watching the runs of Azam back and he does appear to have a knee action / 'clawing' action, so may not want the ground rattling. Whatever, the market does seem to be screaming that the yard's other runner is the numero uno for them, even allowing for Hugh Having tipped it. Bin Battuta did the thread a favour last time when he won at Donny, and that form got a boost when Khalidi won the Fielden yesterday, but again, quick ground could be a query for him too. |
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Well done to St Hugh, awesome tipstering!
I've decided to have a saver in that 6.20, now Cabal has drifted in the betting. Cabal, 1pt win @ 8-1, 6.20 Beverley Cabal has shaped in her last two starts as though she's coming to hand, finishing a close-up fourth at Newcastle two starts back and then last time at Wolverhampton, shaping better than the bare result having not got any luck up the straight. She's now 4lb below the mark she won off last summer, goes well at the track, won't mind how the ground is riding, and this could set up for her style, given there are a few in here who may potentially want to get on with it. |
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Rosamaria being smashed into, GL George
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hard to get home going like that round there
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very poor that was
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I thought I had all angles covered there, oh well, there's always tomorrow...
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Mulled Wine, 2pts win @ 9-1, 4.40 Lingfield
Mulled Wine had run well on his previous start when the finishing runner-up over one mile at Kempton, having been the main one to give chase to a clear leader before they were both run down by one that had sat off the pace; and he caught the eye on his latest start over today's course and distance when having been held up this occasion, he failed to secure a clear run. He's 10lb below his initial mark and still relatively unexposed in a field of mainly exposed performers, so hopefully with better luck this time, he can go close. Fairy Mist, 1pt win @ 16-1, 4.40 Lingfield Fairy Mist is most definitely one of the exposed ones in the field, but I thought he shaped quite well on his recent reappearance over C/D, not getting the best of runs and not being knocked about, so a saver is had at a double figure price. |
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It hasn't taken long for the losing run to build up
 Azam looks a big unit with a funny action, who I thought was going to get involved when he moved up into contention on the far side, but after meeting with a bit of interference from the eventual winner, he didn't find a lot, maybe it was fitness or the ground, or perhaps that's as good as he is, but I'll still be keeping an eye on him, particularly if there's a little give in the ground. It looked like Rosamaria was trying to break the land speed record on the front end and not surprisingly she capitulated rather tamely, while old Cabal could only plug on into second. The bottom line is -5 on the day. Running Totals P/L : -5.75 Win stat: 5/37 (13%) Place stat: 13/37 (35%) Points staked so far: 65 Points lost on multiples: 7 (included in overall P/L) |
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Unlucky George.
I think there will be definitely be another day for Strong Steps. Hugh is just different Gravy isnt he. |
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Indeed mackies, and so nearly a monster treble for him.
As for Strong Steps, maybe on a bit easier surface with BS(7) back on board? Certainly didn't look a happy bunny for whatever reason yesterday. |
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Akhlaaq, 2pts win @ 8-1, 1.50 Newmarket
Akhlaaq may be worth another chance to confirm the promise he showed when winning over 6f at Salisbury on his debut, when despite having raced keenly and been green off the bridle, he still managed to quicken smartly once organised to win with a deal more in hand than the winning distance suggested, posting a decent RPR in doing so. This well bred, 400,000 gns purchase was entered in some of the top 2YO races, but those plans came unstuck when he disappointed in a Class 2 conditions race at the St Leger meeting, finding little off the bridle having over-raced. He has something to prove on his reapearance and that tendency to race keenly is a concern, but the return to quicker ground may help and he appears to have the size and scope to train on, so looks worth at least one chance to confirm the favourable impression he created on debut, albeit his current market weakness and lack of big race entries is a little concerning. A couple at prices against the field in a competitive looking 3YO handicap at Ripon. Dandy Highwayman, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.05 Ripon Outfox, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 5.05 Ripon Dandy Highwayman looked a little unfortunate not to go closer in a class 2 nursery at Ayr's Western meeting last September, trying to challenge when being hampered by the eventual runner-up and losing momentum, before keeping on well into fourth. He was well drawn that day as it turned out, but that may be the case again today being drawn high and with potential pace-setters around him. He has been gelded since last seen having disappointed at York on his final start of 2016, and drops back to class 5 company today. Outfox is perhaps more speculative; she caught the eye on her third run for a mark at Haydock last season, putting in some good late work having possibly been further back than ideal. Her nursery debut came on soft ground at Hamilton and although she was disappointing, perhaps a combination of soft ground and racing isolated on the outer weren't ideal; while her final start of 2016 came in the Redcar 2YO Trophy where she was out of her depth. She looks a sizeable filly who may have benefited from another winter on her back and interesting to see how she shapes on her return. |
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Summary of selections for Thursday
Akhlaaq, 2pts win @ 8-1, 1.50 Newmarket Mulled Wine, 2pts win @ 9-1, 4.40 Lingfield Fairy Mist, 1pt win @ 16-1, 4.40 Lingfield Dandy Highwayman, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.05 Ripon Outfox, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 5.05 Ripon Yikes, that 9 points staked on the day |
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Oh my days, I've gone selection crazy here, cuz there are two more to come, but this is all for Thursday cuz 13 points staked in a single day is just ridic!
These two run in the finale at Newmarket: Marilyn, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 5.20 Newmarket Amelia Dream, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 5.20 Newmarket Marilyn caught the eye on her debut last June in a novice race at Yarmouth (6F) that worked out quite well (even aside from the winner who is rated over 100 and won a valuable sales race), running green but noted going on at the finish and hitting the line well; she then got the job done in workmanlike manner when odds on for a 7F maiden auction at the same course. She returns from a 9-month absence rated 73 and upped in trip to a mile (promises to stay on pedigree), and with the evidence of her debut run suggesting she could be on a workable mark, she gets an EW vote. At huge odds I can't resist a saver on Amelia Dream, who was notebooked on her debut at Newbury (6F) last season, shaping nicely from off the pace and running on well to be nearest at the finish; she was a well supported favourite on the back off that next time out in a Brighton 6F maiden, but not much went right, missing the break, not handling the track / running green and not getting a clear run. Amelia Dream was upped to today's a trip of a mile on her third and final run last year, at Ascot, and she was a bit disappointing, failing to make any impression having taken a grip and stamina remains a slight concern, but she is related to winners at beyond a mile and perhaps with another winter behind her to strengthen up, the trip won't be an issue. |
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I've had a few bob on Amelia too
, Also got Tricorn but might leave that. |
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Which run did you notebook her, saddo?
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A bit of dart throwing has gone on for today, which is not how it's meant to be, so win or lose, methinks back to a more selective approach from tomorrow.
Good early support for Dandy Highwayman and Mulled Wine, and Outfox too There doesn't seem to be any confidence behind the Owen Burrows runner, which has to be worrying imo. The two in the last at HQ may be ones for another day looking at the betting, but on this day of dart throwing, a bullseye would be nice! |
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On debut, George.
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Cheers, good luck today.
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Hi GEORGE.... best of luck today... if you backed Mulled Wine, it looks like a horse that`s saves loads back... (i.e rocking horse) maybe a lay-up in-running at shorter odds is the way to go with this fellow just in case it chucks it away
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Cheers easygold, and good luck to you too.
It wasn't something I'd picked up on tbh, and when I noted him last time, he was obviously in behind horses and not getting a clear shot at it. I'll have a look back at his Kempton run. |
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Akhlaaq looks like he wants to take off going to the start but Crowley doing a good job restraining him. Suspect he'll either be anchored in the race itself or will over-race.
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It could be going better
 Well fancy that, William Carson having issues at the start again on a horse anticipating the start |
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That Mulled Wine, is not a race horse... delete
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