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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
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Cheers KC, though obviously the tricky bit is to keep it going!
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Zac Brown, 2pts win @ 7-2, 5.30 Bath
There's little doubt Zac Brown is better on the AW than he is on turf and that is reflected in his different handicap marks for the surfaces, but he is effective on turf (initially rated 86), and he caught my eye the last time he ran on grass, over 6f at Nottingham last October, losing his prominent pitch without being given a hard time before keeping on nicely; that run came off a mark of 80 and he's now down to 75 on his return to the green stuff. He has of course since been in excellent form on the AW, winning twice and runnning well in defeat, including on his latest start despite only finishing fifth, being beaten just over 2l after having been on the sharp end of what looked an overly strong pace (race set up for a closer, who contests the Sprint at the Finals meeting). That latest AW run came off a mark of 95, and he returns to turf rated 20lb lower, but he is potentially well handicapped even on the best of his turf form. Possible negatives for his chance are that he's been on the go all winter and he's now taking on fresher horses, plus he's likely to face competition for the lead, but in the hope he can hold his form and doesn't get hooked up in a battle for the lead, he gets the vote for 2pts, being potentially well handicapped. Eldreth, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 4.40 Lingfield Eldreth has improved with age and maturity, and a battling win over Fire Fighting in a conditions race at Dundalk on her appearance suggested this strong looking filly may not have finished improving yet. The bare form of that win may not be enough to win this and a line through Fire Fighting would suggest Absolute Blast has her beating on recent form, however, I'm not sure how reliable that Kempton form is given Fire Fighting was caught wide and pulled hard, plus she was in receipt of more weight from that rival than Eldreth was. Eldreth may prefer a more testing 10f (needed all of Dundalk's stretch-10 to get on top) and has a few pound on adjusted figures to find with a few of these, however, she would appear to have returned in excellent fettle, and in the hope there is more improvement in her, a chance is taken EW at the prices. |
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Also 1pt EW double
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I clearly need to take more water with it, obviously that should read Elbereth
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Btw, that 5.30 at Bath, my loyal and avid reader will recall on last year's ill-fated notebook thread, one of the rare winners on it was Englishman, when he obliged at Windsor @ 7-1.
He had been notebooked on his reappearance at Doncaster, where he had tanked through the race and wasn't knocked about. If he's in that sort of form this time around on his reappearance, he's going to be a threat as he's back on a workable mark. The perception that he needs it soft was blown out of the water when he went on to win at Newmarket on a decent surface. He's currently a 14-1 poke. |
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i have ventured to select a few at lingfield e/w george
gl your avid reader  |
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Thank you, chav
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Good luck chav, they look life-changing ones!
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GL both. Have you looked at the 2.00 George? I was interested in one, but got to thinking that Sumou holds a fine chance. Drifting like a drifty thing, trainer form?
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I've got 2 'notebook' horses in that race, saddo, one is Sumou, but guess there's the trainer change to factor in and why they've got rid; the other one I'd rather not say cuz it's probably one for further down the line over further.
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Joined: 04 May 12
| Topic/replies: 17,914 | Blogger: chavman's blog i have ventured to select a few at lingfield e/w george gl Given the record of jollys @ this meeting over the 3 years not a bad approach at all IMHO. |
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Shovel It On, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.00 Bath
Cheap purchase who made a promising debut at Leicester last Friday, running green on the outer and becoming outpaced, before putting in some good late work and going on at the finish to take 4th, one place behind Airshow who reopposes here. Not much was expected there (28-1) judging by the market and he's the stable's apparent second string again here (they also run a runner-up from one of the Brocklesby divisons), but surprised to see him four times the price of Airshow, so on that basis at the prices, he gets an EW vote. |
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Could be an expensive day, that's 8 pts stakes
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Good luck George.
I think Gracious John is one of the few in the Sprint final that still has more to come and am more than happy to take a chance on him today at a double figure price from a nice draw. |
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In that case mackies, let's hope for Dave Evans big price double!
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I know it's not all about times but Fire Fighting's run @ Kempton (1 Apr) looks a poor line of form for a class 1 (Listed) given that the preceding class 5 was run at a better pace (imo) ... also nto proved that when finished only beating 2 home in a class 2 including my speculative Ice Royal by 8 lengths ....
Grendisar in the 4.40 for me George not a strong pick in some classy races today .... gl |
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Fire Fighting was rated 112 at Dundalk which he earned in handicaps, but he also has strong form in this type of this of race eg his second to Grendisar last year at the meeting.
You could argue he was off a break at Dundalk and Elleval holds the form down a bit, but he definitely had excuses at Kempton, and he's tried to come from behind yesterday at Chelmsford, which isn't every horse's cup of tea. The big concern with Elbereth is the track, cuz to be honest after Dundalk I was thinking fillies pattern races over further. but at the price I thought it was the worth the risk that she may hit the frame at least. |
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Just wanted to let The Dealer know, I posted a loser today.
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Unlucky mackies, v good effort
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Watched it on my phone in Asda George so couldn't be sure but looked like he maybe did a bit much early but ran very well. Probably better at 5f.No surprise it was St.Hughs one that nailed him!
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Unlucky George / Mackies
gl George ... 5.00 |
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Ta Virgin
I'm no clichéd ridden pundit, bit like all my best EW bets that one came 4th  Why did them Frenchies have to choose today of all days to come over  |
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A relatively valuable maiden this (class 2) so maybe stables have aimed their better ones at it, and it seems there are some well fancied debutants.
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UL. Just missed the 4th place there George.
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Ran like he needs a stiffer test / softer ground imo, KC.
No pressure on Zac Brown then Well he's got the Kimberella form, if it's to be believed, and IF he can reproduce something like it on turf, he should go close of this 20lb lower mark, but proving easy enough to back. |
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love on rocks well fancied.lamborn open day
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That went well...
Well done mandown, good late info |
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Willie Carson was in the winners enclosure to greet the well backed winner. Interesting.
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Unlucky George.
The Chrysellium partnership. Carson. Hmmm... That said, the winner was fairly eye-catching and might have taken the beating anyway. |
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Looked like he tried to anticipate the start imo, his body seemed to move forward before all the other jocks did.
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unlucky today George, just one of them days.
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And I'd been so disciplined with the point staking on the thread so far, but I got a bit carried away today and of course it had to go t!ts up, with Elbereth just losing third place late on, and Zac Brown losing all chance at the start. I'd notebooked the juvenile last week, left it at 10s last night, saw the 20s this morning and decided to select it. The upshot of it all is 8 points spu_nked on the day.
Running Totals P/L : +9.2 Win stat: 5/27 (18%) Place stat: 11/27 (41%) Points staked so far: 50 |
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Indeed Dan, there's always tomorrow...
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A couple against the field in the finale at Cork
Set To Fire, 1pt win @ 9-1, 5.00 Cork Dandy Rock, 1pt win @ 16-1, 5.00 Cork Set To Fire caught my eye on good to firm over 6f at Fairyhouse last June (trained by Johnny Murtagh at the time), not getting a clear run between the two and one poles and having to switch out wide before finishing her race off well; she was rated 67 at the time (with a 7lb claimer on board), and two starts later (off 64) ran well again to finish 4th of 16 at Naas on good ground. Since then she's either raced on soft ground or Polytrack and she's fallen to a mark of 47, while having changed yards twice; two starts for her current yard have come at Dundalk and she's shaped just OK. Set To Fire clearly has her limitations and is not one to being going overboard about, but she is of a little interest back on a soundish surface on turf having fallen in the weights, and from a potentially favourable draw with Kevin Manning booked, she gets a vote for the minimum stake. Dandy Rock caught my eye two starts back at Dundalk over one mile, putting in some good late work from off a steady pace; he was then stepped up to 10.5f on his latest start and there seemed to be some money around for him, but he didn't run any sort of race. Today he's down to 7f with a tongue strap applied, has to prove himself on turf, and he has a wide draw to contend with, so potential negatives aren't hard to find, but as an unexposed sort who had shaped well on his penultimate start, he gets a tentative vote at a double-figure price. |
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These two are not selections but it'll be interesting to see how they go. Dragons Teeth (2.00 Kempton) and Rocket Man Dan (4.05 Muss) both ran in the same division of the Brocklesby and they both decided it would be a good idea to get hooked up in a speed duel, for which they both ultimately paid the price, fading right out of it from the furlong marker. The latter had been well supported in the betting. If ridden with a tad more restraint this this maybe they'll fare a little better? They're both around the 7-1 mark.
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thanks for clarifying that george
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RMD n/r.
seems to be a bit of a gamble on dragons teeth george,you may yet regret your caution.(8s into 10/3) |
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Hello George, I spent a lot of time on that 5.00 and none the wiser in the end.
I notice Aussie Guest is gone blue on oddschecker,Eugene O'Sullivan trains just outside the course,the horse has just the two wins both at the track(beaten a few times there as well).I am not backing it but i think that is very possible there could well be a word going around for it. Very good thread. |
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Hugh Taylor tip, chav
Cheers, pa |