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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!

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By:
mackies-fc
When: 15 Apr 17 12:03
Quite like Gurkha Friend today. Gl
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Apr 17 12:10
Good luck mackies, apparently he's been gelded since last seen.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Apr 17 13:58
Good effort, mackies
By:
mackies-fc
When: 15 Apr 17 14:00
Place-itis!

Ill take that though because today probably wasn't the day for him.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Apr 17 14:04
William Carson not riding today?

Was he out celebrating his granddad's win last night?
By:
stridingedge
When: 15 Apr 17 14:11
Good to see things been going well George keep it up mate Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Apr 17 14:14
They didn't go well yesterday, striding, but hey, today's another day! Wink

Mind, a bit worried about the ground for Set To Fire, looks like it is on the soft side of good.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Apr 17 18:26
The less said about today's 2 the better, though the ground turned out to be wrong for one of them and probably the trip for the other.
I do have a 1pt selection for tomorrow, which I'll post once I've done me little write-up Plain

Running Totals

P/L : +7.2

Win stat: 5/29 (17%)
Place stat: 11/29 (38%)

Points staked so far: 52
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Apr 17 18:33
Amy Blair, 1pt win @ 8-1, 5.40 Southwell

Amy Blair's form improved  once stepped up in trip last season, causing a 50-1 shock at Hamilton over 8.5f (good) and proving it was no fluke by following up of a 5lb higher mark at the same course over 9f (heavy), each time racing keenly on the front end and winning unchallenged. It appeared he failed to stay when stepped up to 12.5f at Musselburgh on his final start of 2016, ending up well held having again gone keenly from the front.

He has run at Southwell once before, when reappearing off a break over 5f last February, and he wasn't without market support that day, going off at 11-4. He was beaten over 11 lengths, but I thought at the time the run wasn't without promise, not knocked about after becoming outpaced and noted hitting the line well.

He returns this season with his stable in very good form and winning with runners making their reappearances, and Amy Blair's free-going style may suit round here, now more experienced and trying a more suitable trip than when last seen at this track.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Apr 17 17:54
Think I must have walked under a ladder or something, second selection in 3 days to effectively lose all chance at the start Crazy

Running Totals

P/L : +6.2

Win stat: 5/30 (17%)
Place stat: 11/30 (37%)

Points staked so far: 53
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Apr 17 18:42
Ninepin Bowler, 2pts win @ 100-30, 2.35 Redcar

Ninepin Bowler might well have made a winning debut at Newcastle last month but for running green and as a consequence being denied a clear run at a crucial stage. This sizeable sort had caught the eye travelling strongly into contention and seemed to have plenty of running left in him at the line, despite having taken a quite a grip off a steady pace.

There wasn't much form to go on, though the winner had run respectably on his debut at Leopardstown last season (when trained by Jim Bolger), and the runner-up was a well backed debutant trained by James Tate.

The imponderable is the switch to turf, but there's no obvious reason on pedigree why he shouldn't be effective on it. A bit of a concern is that his dam was a maiden and his three siblings are all maidens and poor ones at that, but Ninepins Bowler left the impression at Newcastle that he does have ability and should be up to winning races.

Glorvina, 1pt win @ 8-1, 2.35 Redcar

I have to have a saver on Glorvina having notebooked her on debut at Beverley last season, when she finished off nicely after not having much luck in the run. She ran below market expectations on her only other start last season which came at Newcastle, but she didn't help herself by taking a grip and perhaps the surface wasn't ideal for her (though still ran OK in fourth, and the 77-rated runner-up subsequently bolted up in a maiden at the course).

The dam's side of her pedigree isn't short of stamina, so maybe handicaps over further will be the way forward after this third qualifying run, but the promise of that turf debut is not forgotten and a chance is taken for the minimum stake back on grass.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 17 Apr 17 11:48
I wouldn't give up on Amy Blair George. Plenty went wrong yesterday.

Gl with today's.

Although backing 7yos that are 0-21 on turf is the route to the poorhouse, I think Steelriver is a decent bet today. Noted last time for a fairly successful change of tactics,and a couple of times before for his late headway in unsuitably run races, anything near his best would see him go close in this race.
By:
saddo
When: 17 Apr 17 12:06
GL, George. First busy day for ages here, 5 entries Shocked
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 12:52
Good luck mackies & saddo
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 12:59
I've moved the market with Ninepin Bowler, out to 6-1 in a place Blush
By:
stewarts rise
When: 17 Apr 17 13:48
I see that Golden Pearl the one i fancied in the race you picked Rapid Applause is running in the 1.50, couldn't get a run until the race was over think has a big chance in this race, also made a note of Barrons Lad in Gymkanas race at Naas, had worst of the draw but came wide down the near side to challenge 2fs out but weakened final furlong, apprentice carried 8lb o/w that day replaced with Hoban today has an EW chance at a big price imo.
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 14:32
I'm having a mad e/w on Sandstream@ BFSP for no real reason gl ....
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 14:33
I know it's not a beauty contest but the fav is a bit of a looker, big rangey looking sort. Gelding could make a man of him. Plain

The dark art of paddock watching Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 14:34
Good luck Virgin
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 14:36
The Palmer horse looks more relaxed this time, walked to post and wearing a hood.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 14:36
drifty drifty for my two Scared
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 14:39
Sad
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 14:43
2.6 in the run or NB, still looked green or is a bit iffy.

The other one kept on nicely on its third run for a mark.
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 14:46
4th and 5th your two George .... saves the e/w stakes anyway Crazy

Also got a play on 3.45 Redcar Kenny The Captain e/w ...hopeless lto from a break but firmer ground today is the angle ....

gl
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 14:47
It's all gone a bit pear shaped Crazy

Running Totals

P/L : +4.2

Win stat: 5/31 (16%)
Place stat: 11/31 (35%)

Points staked so far: 55
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 14:52
Sandstream 7th @ 162 Plain
By:
jamesdean
When: 17 Apr 17 14:52
Correction  +3.2

sorry george Blush
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 14:58
Soz Blush

I did make a mistake the other way earlier in the thread, and it would have been picked up on like last time when the spreadsheet is updated!

Thanks for auditing the figures, JD
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 15:00
The bad news is that there is going to be a further selection today, very much on the speculative side, and I didn't put it up earlier as I was concerned about the forecast rain.
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 15:03
Is it Kenny The Captain Excited ....
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 15:27
You'll be relieved to find out it's not, Virgin!
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 15:29
Laugh gl ....
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 15:29
Extrasolar, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 4.55 Redcar

Unlike Wentworth Falls, Extrasolar hasn't thrived so far for the switch to Geoffrey Harker's yard, but I did think there were tentative signs on his latest start that he may be about to find some form, keeping on well towards the far side over 5f at Newcastle to not be beaten far despite finishing only 10th. The winner Art Collection has since bolted up in a higher grade, so being beaten just over 3l by that horse was no disgrace, albeit it was a crowd scene at the finish line.

This will be Extrasolar's first start on turf for his new trainer and his mark has fallen to 72, 10lb below his last winning mark and 9lb lower than when he was last seen on grass. It could be Extrasolar is regressing with age and a drop into 0-70 company will show him in a better light after another run or two, but he is obviously well handicapped on old form and three starts on the AW should have brought him to peak fitness for this return to turf.
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 15:42
Wentworth Falls just about to run @ Redcar ....Shocked subliminal Crazy
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 15:49
WentwShockedrth Falls wins
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 15:50
Kenny The Captain loses Blush
By:
Virgin
When: 17 Apr 17 17:01
Unlucky George no pictures  ....  supported a bit as well Sad
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 17:04
I think there more than 'tentative' signs this time the horse could be about to find some form Plain
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Apr 17 17:06
And it was going so well... Crazy

Running Totals

P/L : +1.2

Win stat: 5/32 (16%)
Place stat: 11/32 (34%)

Points staked so far: 57
By:
Knight Commander
When: 17 Apr 17 17:44
Better Luck tomorrow George Wink
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