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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!

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By:
the dealer
When: 22 Apr 17 00:03
good apprentice booked as well by the don
By:
saddo
When: 22 Apr 17 00:04
Fellon said the other day that HMQ would have a winner at Newbury tomoz, she's got two favs runningSad
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 00:07
Good luck chav
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 00:09
CC was nearest at the finish over 7.5f in one of the runs for David Wachman, so who knows...the Don probably
By:
mackies-fc
When: 22 Apr 17 09:16
Just going to put Foresight up George. Great minds and all that! Regards the draw the low bias at Thirsk last year seemed more pronounced with a bit of cut in the ground if I remember correctly. I think today though he will just be the best horse in the race.

Also Master Carpenter for me today, hopefully the draw is ok got to go very close at a huge price.

Gl everyone.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 10:20
Good luck to us both mackies
By:
PHS
When: 22 Apr 17 15:54
Were you on at 5 places George?
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 15:55
Bossy Guest 5th, some firms were going 5 or 6 places, but obviously it will count as a loser for thread purposes Plain
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 15:56
No PHS, 4. Such is life...
By:
PHS
When: 22 Apr 17 15:59
Shame that, but I guess you went for the highest price at the time of posting.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 18:27
Okool 3-1? You can have 9-2 now, even with Gosden runner out, #judge Blush

1-3 to be in the first 4 Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 18:28
heavily backed Godolphin runner gets the paddock pick on RUK.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 18:40
Well and truly put in his place there, winner just looks a superior specimen both looks and ability wise.

Okool, too keen for his own good, not that it made any difference to the result.
By:
the dealer
When: 22 Apr 17 19:07
the Don knew, hammered in the betting and bolts up
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 19:07
The Don knew.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 19:08
snap!
By:
the dealer
When: 22 Apr 17 19:08
Grin
By:
saddo
When: 22 Apr 17 19:19
Got twenty odd quid and pennies on this morning and refused to chase it lower Cry. That Crystal Ocean is a decent tool.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 19:52
Bit unlucky today with Bossy Guest, just got held up in his run enough around 2f out before finishing well to just miss a place.

But the bottom line is -6 on the day and back into the red overall.

Running Totals
P/L : -1.55

Win stat: 6/51 (12%)
Place stat: 16/51 (31%)

Points staked so far: 90
Points lost on multiples: 7 (included in overall P/L)
By:
Virgin
When: 22 Apr 17 20:32
30+ posts since I was last in George Shocked

I was expecting Duke Of Bronte @ 100/1 to be in here Sad
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 22:55
I've left myself down there, Virgin Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 17 22:57
Wild Irish Rose, 2pts win @ 5-1, 4.55 Navan

Wild Irish Rose shaped nicely on more than one occasion as a juvenile under sympathetic handling, and she looked unlucky not to finish a lot closer on her reappearance in a 10f maiden at Leopardstown, travelling noticeably well turning in but being denied a clear run.

That was her first attempt at 10f and there could be more to come at the trip, while her 2YO form suggests she should be fine on today's quicker surface.

Chocolat Noir, 1pt win @ 8-1, 5.25 Navan

Chocolat Noir ran a promising race on her reappearance in a handicap over 10f at Leopardstown, racing on the outer from a wide draw which probably wasn't ideal, yet she kept on quite well without being given a hard time to finish 7th of the 20 runners (the third has since won in handicap company).

She has plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she looks well worth another try at today's 13f trip.
By:
PHS
When: 23 Apr 17 17:32
Hugh again. Just can't stop him.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 17 17:57
Wild Irish Rose traded under 2-1, but that was as good as it got.

Chocolat Noir ran well, going on nicely at the finish and might well have got there in another couple of strides; and of course as I hadn't taken her EW, she just had to nick a place in 16-runner handicap reduced to 15 late on, just to thoroughly piss me off again after yesterday's EW shocker. The bottom line is 3 points lost on the day.

Running Totals
P/L : -4.55

Win stat: 6/53 (11%)
Place stat: 17/53 (32%)

Points staked so far: 93
Points lost on multiples: 7 (included in overall P/L)
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 17 18:02
Follow Me, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.45 Kempton

Follow Me cost 32,000 gns as a yearling, but didn't last long in Hugo Palmer's yard, being sold for just £4000 following just two runs. However, I didn't think her debut over 7f at Kempton was bereft of promise, having been slow away, run green, not had the clearest of runs, before keeping on ok. Her final run for her former yard came in a class 3 maiden at York won by the useful Raheen House and not surprisingly she didn't make much impact.

Two runs so far for her new trainer and she shaped OK on the latest of them over today's C/D, held up in a race where it proved difficult to come from off the pace (and won by one who followed up in a higher grade on turf), she made a little late headway and left the impression there could be improvement to come when things pan out more favourably.

She's drawn widest here and it's likely a bit further may suit ideally, but she's been eased 2lb, wears a hood for the first time, and Jospehine Gordon takes over in the saddle, so in a weak contest, she's get the vote for the minimum EW stake.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 17 18:03
I know, Follow Me, not an apt name for this thread at the moment Plain
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 17 19:09
Another Wyse Kid, 1pt win @ 8-1, 3.05 Pontefract

I selected Strong Steps last week on the basis that he might have run well against a track bias at the Lincoln meeting, but like Zhui Feng on Saturday (another who had seemingly fared well at Doncaster despite track position), he didn't confirm that theory by running well on his next start, so it may be folly to select another on the basis of that theory.

However, Another Wyse Kid still shaped well on his reappearance, draw bias or not, keeping on well stands' side to be beaten just over 3l behind the resurgent Wentworth Falls, who raced towards the far side.

He's a dual course and distance winner, who has fallen to a mark 8lb lower than when last successful, and in an interview pre-race at Donny, his trainer had reported him to be working very well.

The downside is trap 6, which is a potential negative round here if caught away from the rail, but a chance is taken for the minimum stake at 8-1.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 17 19:28
Natty Dresser, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 4.25 Navan

Very much on the speculative side this, particularly given there are some likely-looking blue blooded debutants in opposition, but at huge odds I'm going to select Natty Dresser in the hope he can at least challenge for a place.

He caught my eye at Naas on his debut in the race won by the well-backed T For Tango, held up when it didn't look easy to come from off the pace and taking a keen hold, he was still last 2f out, but once switched to the outer he picked up quite well and was going forward when eased in the closing stages, with the prinicpals having gone beyond recall.

He has the inside rail to race against here, and the way he was staying on at Naas augurs well for this step up to 6f, so hopefully with that experience behind him he won't be disgraced here.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 17 20:01
Yulong Baobei, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.25 Navan

I'm not sure it's the wisest policy to be selecting a 3YO filly against her elders in sprints at this time of year, but at a double figure price a chance is taken on Yulong Baobei.

She wasn't disgraced in the Windsor Castle having gone after a US-trained speedball and taken the lead over a furlong out before fading in the final furlong on the soft ground to finish a respectable 7th, in a race run in a faster time than the King's Stand.

Yulong Baobei then returned to home soil to comfortably win a 5f Listed race at Tipperary, and I thought she was then unfortunate not to follow up in Group 3  company at the Curragh, rallying strongly against the far rail having been headed, but being denied a clear run when seemingly having running left in her.

This doesn't look easy against older, more established sprinters, but it will be interesting to see how she fares.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 17 20:52
Bee Machine, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 2.00 Pontefract

Bee Machine was a relatively expensive 50,000 guineas purchase, who made his debut in one of the divisions of the Brocklesby, and he didn't shape too badly, probably over-racing but showing good speed for 3f before fading having raced closest to the possibly unfavoured stands' rail.

He wasn't as strong in the market as his stablemate that landed a gamble in the other division of the race, but he wasn't unfancied at 8-1, and although the form has taken a few knocks since, Bee Machine could come on plenty fitness-wise and if settling a little better, with that first experience behind him. The draw could have been better, but he was good from the gate on his debut and that could stand him in good stead. Danny Tudhope has a respectable strike rate for the yard (7-41, 17%, +2.38).
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 17 20:58
Summary of Selections for Monday:

Bee Machine, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 2.00 Pontefract
Another Wyse Kid, 1pt win @ 8-1, 3.05 Pontefract
Follow Me, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.45 Kempton
Natty Dresser, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 4.25 Navan
Yulong Baobei, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.25 Navan
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 17 21:38
Actually, it makes more sense to have 2pts on Another Wyse Kid.

Further point win on Another Wyse Kid @ 7-1

Bee Machine, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 2.00 Pontefract
Another Wyse Kid, 1pt win @ 8-1, 3.05 Pontefract
Another Wyse Kid, 1pt win @ 7-1, 3.05 Pontefract
Follow Me, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.45 Kempton
Natty Dresser, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 4.25 Navan
Yulong Baobei, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.25 Navan
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 17 13:27
A couple of NRs from the list above. One further selection:

Ocean Temptress, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.15 Kempton

Ocean Temptress shaped better than the bare result in what admittedly probably wasn't the strongest of  Nottingham maidens last August, caught wide throughout but still in with a chance of a place when hampered inside the final furlong. The four runs since haven't exactly marked her down as a winner waiting to happen (though hasn't helped herself by racing keenly on a couple of occasions), however, her fourth over C/D in September doesn't read too badly in the context of this race, given that was a class 4 contest and the form worked out quite well.

The dam's side of her pedigree (related to a couple of two mile winners) and how she shaped at Nottingham could suggest a stiffer test may suit in due course, and she's returning from five months off here so fitness has to be taken on trust, but as she's now down to a mark of 60 (7lb lower than for that class 4 C/D run), I'm going to take a chance EW at big odds.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 17 13:29
Revised summary of selections:

Another Wyse Kid, 1pt win @ 8-1, 3.05 Pontefract
Another Wyse Kid, 1pt win @ 7-1, 3.05 Pontefract
Ocean Temptress, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.15 Kempton
Follow Me, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.45 Kempton
Yulong Baobei, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.25 Navan
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 24 Apr 17 14:26
Line Of Reason 1st & 2nd from 2 runs at Ponty. Was "used" to make the market for stables bigger priced winner LTO but still ran well.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 17 16:12
What do you think of it so far? RUBBISH! I think I should have quit with the 2 NRS.

Another Wyse Kid was dismal, but the Doncaster run suggested there was life in him yet, so maybe back in a bigger field with a pace to run at, he may revive.

Ocean Temptress seemed to be backed and it was looking good when she was travelling nicely in behind the leaders, but they hadn't gone much pace and just wonder if she needs a stiffer test (was far too keen when tried over 10f previously).

And Follow Me, she offered nothing.

Which all means I'm dependent on a 3YO filly returning from a break to turn over her elders, in order to save the day Plain
By:
easygold
When: 24 Apr 17 16:29
Hi George, I admire any guy that works hard (i.e rewatching all races and filling up the notebook) But you took 6f form from Donny and brought it over to Pontefract over 5f on good to firm and all his best form is over 6f..... I also put that horse in my notebook from the Donny run (i.e wrong side he raced on) but I couldn`t do him today...
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 17 17:26
You're telling me he's not a dual C/D winner at Ponte?

I do welcome comments like that, but obviously it looks a lot better before the race!

As for today, it was poor, whatever the reason, though as I said, maybe a bigger field / stronger pace would be preferable.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 17 17:33
A bad day at the office, nowt more to be said.

Running Totals
P/L : -12.55

Win stat: 6/57 (10%)
Place stat: 17/57 (30%)

Points staked so far: 101
Points lost on multiples: 7 (included in overall P/L)
By:
easygold
When: 24 Apr 17 18:05
Hi George, I`m saying his best recent form is over 6f for a good 14 months..... if u thought he could race on good to firm over 5f today fair enough... I rarely take form from 2014 for sprinters considering he has been trained for mainly 6f races....

You got to know when to hold them... u know the rest
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