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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
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Two selections for Tuesday
My Guy, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 4.50 Bath My Guy made his debut in a Class 2 novice event at Bath in which his trainer Stan Moore ran three, one of them finished 3rd at 33-1, while the other two, My Guy and Uther Pendragon, both ran similar races, looking pretty clueless in rear before finishing off nicely once the penny dropped. Uther Pendragon has since run again at Bath and not been disgraced behind a couple of well touted debutants, particularly given he was short of room at a crucial stage. The concern with My Guy is that his pedigree would suggest he's going to need a longer trip in due course, but there was sufficient promise in his debut run for me to take a speculative punt at the price, now he runs in what at least on paper looks an easier race. Faintly, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 8.40 Wolverhampton Faintly looked in good nick on his reappearance over C/D last month, held up and noted travelling strongly, he got no luck in the run from the home bend and shaped a good bit better than the bare result. He has since run over 7f at Catterick, but as can be the case round there, it wasn't easy to come from off the pace and he could make no impression. He'll be dependent upon a good pace here, but that looks a distinct possibility, and granted better luck in running hopefully he can at least hit the frame. |
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*4.50 Brighton
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Locommotion, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 8.10 Wolverhampton
When Locommotion won at Lingfield two starts back, a lot went his way with the favourite sadly going wrong and the second favourite left with a lot to do, but he still beat a useful yardstick for the grade in Bookmaker comfortably, so I'd be wary of saying it was a fluke. He then went to Chelmsford the following evening, and as he had done at Lingfield, he was slowly away again but only this time could not recover and then in the straight could not secure a clear run, in a race won by tonight's rival Isntshesomething. Franny Norton, who was on board for the Lingfield success is back in the saddle tonight and a lot will depend on if or not Franny can get him out of the stalls on level terms, and if he can with Dr Red Eye having been declared a NR, he may not face too much pressure for the lead. He is now racing off his revised 8lb higher mark of 54, but he was rated in the 70s initially and he looks a sizeable sort who may just be rediscovering his form and he remains relatively lightly raced. |
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* 1pt EW @ 14-1 with a few of the major firms
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Qortaaj, 1pt win @ 14-1, 7.25 Brighton
Qortaaj was notebooked at Ripon last season when he was denied a clear run and shaped a bit better than the bare result. He has failed to win since but there have been some good placed runs on both turf and the AW off higher marks than he runs off here. The trouble is he hasn't been in any sort of form since the turn of the year in four starts (including one over hurdles), but that has seen his mark fall to 62 which allows him into this lower grade and a promising 7lb claimer has been booked. I'm not sure he's the most straightforward but if he's on one of his going days the handicap mark looks one he can win off. Live Dangerously, 2pts win @ 4-1, 7.25 Brighton A saver is had on Live Dangerously who's caught the eye a couple of times not getting the clearest of runs or being knocked about; he's a dual C/D winner who has fallen to a dangerous mark and the money this morning is saying today could be the day. |
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And today's final selection:
Coping Stone, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 9.10 Wolverhampton I thought Coping Stone was definitely better than the bare result on her latest start over 6f at Kempton, being denied a clear run inside the final furlong when trying to challenge. The way she went through that race (pushed along at a relatively early stage) makes me wonder whether the drop back to 5f is suitable, but that said her best run to date according to a certain rating came over this evening's C/D last September under Richard Kingscote, who rides for the first time since. Her rating has been dropped to a career-low of 59, and in the hope the drop in trip does not prove to be an inconvenience, a chance is taken EW. |
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Summary of today's selections
My Guy, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 4.50 Bath Qortaaj, 1pt win @ 14-1, 7.25 Brighton Live Dangerously, 2pts win @ 4-1, 7.25 Brighton Locommotion, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 8.10 Wolverhampton Faintly, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 8.40 Wolverhampton Coping Stone, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 9.10 Wolverhampton |
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Hi easygold and all, any (preferably pre-race) comments (good or bad, positive or negative) on today's selections are welcomed!
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GL George
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That's very kind of you KC, though tbh, I was hoping for something rather more nasty and negative!
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hi George - i see hugh T has gone with Faintly pinching your tips, i do agree with live d and think copping is good e/w for tonight - will check others nearer off times
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craigie, if St Hugh is nicking these, I fear for his P/L the way this is going! No, it is the seal of approval, we just need it to win now!
LD, apparently there may be a ground query if it's rattling, otherwise everything else looks in place for a big run. As for Coping Stone, the drop in trip doesn't look the obvious move based solely on the lastest start, but the previous form suggests she's OK with it. |
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hopefully the rain we have in midlands can get down that way quick put some juice in ground, hoping CS can get dragged along early doors just stay in touch then be hopeful of a place
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Have you done any analysis on Win only v.Each Way on your selections so far this year George? Just strikes me that the place stake's are using up a fair wack of cash. Fair dos if it's a 33/1 or 40/1 you nearly bagged on Saturday.
Live Dangerously - 2pt saver? |
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I withdraw that apostrophe after stakes.
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Between stake and s I meant
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Tbh, I was only meant to be doing the huge prices EW eg 20s or bigger, but the stats are saying a third of the picks are hitting the frame (though that's come down quickly from what it was).
I'll just see how it goes. 2pts for the saver is a combination of annoyance and lack of discipline on my behalf at not having picked last night like I was going to, though there would have been a sizeable R4 anyway. At the end of the day though PHS, it's a just a thread on a horse racing forum for a bit of interest, so let's not take it too seriously! |
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Absolutely woeful, the three at Brighton were poor, maybe quick ground round there wasn't for any of them, but excuses, excuses...
Locommotion got out of the stalls fine but didn't settle and folded tamely in the straight. Faintly could have done with a stronger pace to run at, he finished off well, but making excuses for horses who need a pace to run at and gaps to appear is just . Maybe they should try just riding him just in behind the pace over 7f round there  I had concerns about Coping Stone dropping back to 5f, but some didn't judging by the money that came for her. She wasn't helped by being caught wide, but just lacked the pace to land a blow before going on at the finish. The Kempton run if anything suggested up in trip not down, but there ya go. Running Totals P/L : -23.55 Win stat: 6/63 (9%) Place stat: 17/63 (27%) Points staked so far: 112 Points lost on multiples: 7 (included in overall P/L) |
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look back, refine, go again.
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Indeed betting_masta, words of wisdom of there.
As the thread's P/L has gone into sharp decline, I'd better put a cap on the bank size: 100 points. As mentioned earlier in the thread: Maximum stake is 10 pts win or 5 pts EW. It looks like rain is forecast to hit both of tomorrow's turf venues, if it hasn't already, so the good news is I may not have a selection for Wednesday. |
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A couple against the field in the opener at Catterick, probably one who will be on the pace and one who will be closing, so hopefully all angles covered, well that's the theory anyway
Fuel Injection, 1pt win @ 8-1, 1.50 Catterick Fuel Injection had been running OK on the AW during the winter, particularly given they've been making enough use of him on the front end, including on a couple of occasions at Newcastle, where it hasn't proved easy to pull off such tactics; he was a bit disappointing on his latest start at Chelmsford, but that came after a 6 week break so perhaps it was just needed. He's just 2lb higher than when a C/D winner last May, and with that recent pipe-opener behind him, hopefully he can be competitive off this mark back on turf. The Armed Man, 1pt win @ 7-1, 1.50 Catterick The Armed Man comes from what is probably the key form race for this, when a few of these met over C/D two weeks ago, including Kinloch Pride, Culloden and Searanger. There's not a lot in it at the weights again, though Culloden probably comes out best given Paddy Pilley can claim his 5lb this time but wasn't able to in that apprentice race. However, I'm going to side with The Armed Man at the prices, he was coming off a six month break and it seemed he wasn't without market support, and he ran well, going on at the finish where he found himself short of room. Hopefully that will have sharpened him and brought him on enough to reverse the form with the race-fit rivals who were ahead of him on that occasion. |
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Good write up George,good luck.
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Cheers K'007, fair to say they've gone their separate ways in the betting!
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unlucky george god knows what she doing 1/2f out
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Hard luck George,another stride or two.
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He did what he did last time only didn't meet the trouble this time. Not sure he's the most straightforward but he looks in good form, maybe a stiffer track will help. Search party required for the other one.
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I'd stop a train at the moment
Running Totals P/L : -25.55 Win stat: 6/65 (9%) Place stat: 18/65 (28%) Points staked so far: 114 Points lost on multiples: 7 (included in overall P/L) |
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middle of track and im sure whip in right hand as soon as lifted dived left, surly u would have in left hand so dont duck away from it towards rails?
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I wasn't ignoring your previous post, craigie, I just didn't want to criticise cuz I knew before the race I wasn't getting SDS!
She managed to straighten him up and get him closing on the winner but the post came to soon. Maybe next time stronger handling will be the way forward, but that's not for me to decide! |
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*too soon
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no probs george i just watched it again and took more notice of why jinked, i know 7lb claimer but think basics especially on one thats prob not staright forward, matbe they thought it needed the 7 off? interesting next time regarding jockey or 6f or stiffer 5 as you point out
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Ran a cracker all the same George against the in form winner.The going and slight headwind were the same as last time,winning time was almost the same too.I noticed it changed legs a few times on the ground and veered left so maybe good going be better for it on a track that's suiting a hold up horse.
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Yeah, good points, he does have form on soft. It looked like he was backed the previous run too, makes me wonder why they didn't look for a stiffer 5 or 6f on perhaps easier going, judging by his previous form, it they knew he was in good form.
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Chin up George. I've actually got one today. Would normally leave Epsom alone but notebook is thin at present. Quothquan 5.00 has been running pretty well, edging up the wights but the claim might make the difference. 14s with a few firms and may be much bigger, I wouldn't take any less at that track tbf, hoping some of the fancied ones don't handle it.
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A couple of tentative selections in the finale at Beverley, 'tentative' because it could be handicaps is the plan for both ofthem.
Legato, 1pt win @ 12-1, 5.00 Beverley Legato is having his third run for a mark here and maybe handicaps will be the way to go after this, but a chance is taken at a double-figure price given the promise he showed on his reappearance at Nottingham, having been gelded since his sole start last season. He was noticeably green up the straight at Nottingham, lugging left and as a consequence not getting the clearest of runs, but he kept on quite well and seemed to finish with running left in him. The winner aside who was quite impressive, the form in behind may not be the strongest given the Godolphin horse in second hadn't achieved much in two starts last season, but it will be surprising if there is not more to come from Legato at some point, as he learns with experience. Glorvina, 1pt win @ 7-1, 5.00 Beverley A saver is had on Glorvina who caught the eye at this track last season over 7.5f on her debut, finishing off nicely having not had the clearest of runs. She then went to Newcastle and was well backed with SDS booked, but it's possible she over-raced and paid the price late on, losing places in the closing stages. I selected her when she reappeared in what looked a fair maiden over one mile at Redcar ten days ago, and again she shaped well, keeping on in a style that as her pedigree would suggest, a stiffer test will suit. She's been handed a mark of 67 but connections have opted to stick to maiden company for now, and a chance is taken with Danny Tudhope taking over in the saddle and this stiffer track likely to suit better than Redcar. |
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Tellovoi, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 8.15 Chelmsford
Another speculative one and being realistic perhaps a place is the best Tellovoi can hope for, but I did think he looked in good form when he reappeared after a 3 month break ten days ago at Redcar, wearing a first time hood that is on again this evening. He travelled quite well through the race, if a little too keen, met with a little trouble over a furlong out before keeping on well for 5th. This is not something I'm adamant about but I did wonder if there was a bit of a bias on the day on the straight track favouring those who raced more stands' side, in which case Tellovoi might have been at a slight disadvantage where he challenged on the track. It should be said that in the final race on the card, the first two came up the far side, so it does cloud the suggestion somewhat! Prior to his winter break Tellovoi had been in good form on the AW, with a close up 4th at Newcastle in a competitive handicap, then a win over this evening's C/D when he had subsequent winners Starboard and Inaam behind him. He's 3lb higher here, but that form doesn't look too bad now. |
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PHS, just wonder though if that was the day for him, cuz he still looked a bit iffy at the gate despite having been gelded and had a prolonged break to try and rekindle his enthusiasm. It'll be interesting to see which way temperamentally he goes next time.
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I've noticed two selections in a few lately, George. Have you done any better in these races? Happens a fair bit hear over the summer, unless they are both big prices I find it difficult to decide how to play. GL today.
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Rapid Applause was one that won when I had two against the field, saddo, but in line with the rest of the thread, not sure it's a been a success overall so far
A couple of NRs in that maiden at Bev, would have liked to have seen support for Dascombe's, but time yet. |