Forums
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1263 comments are related to the topic:
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 14 of 32  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | ... | 32 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,263
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 May 17 19:56
Mairee traded short in the run but was comfortably held in the end. Three points lost on the day.


May Running Total

P/L : -3

Win stat: 0/3 (0%)
Place stat: 1/3 (33%)

Points staked so far: 3

Overall Running Total
P/L : -25.55

Win stat: 7/78 (9%)
Place stat: 22/78 (28%)

Points staked so far: 135
Points lost on multiples: 7 (included in overall P/L)
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 May 17 20:03
Two against the field in the 3.10 at Nottingham

Thaqaffa, 2pts win @ 5-2, 3.10 Nottingham

Thaqaffa was an obvious eyecatcher on his first turf start for his current handler at Pontefract, being denied a clear run up the rail and shaping like an unlucky loser. SDS (who retains the ride) was booked that day and there was good market support for the horse, so it would appear a good run was expected.

One potential negative for his chance could be if the ground is riding very quick, but on the evidence of the Pontefract run, he is potentially a well handicapped horse on turf for his new connections.


Pickett's Charge, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.10 Nottingham

Pickett's Charge was 'notebooked' when he finished fourth after meeting with trouble in a one mile race at Thirsk last season that worked out quite well (first three home all subsequently improved their ratings by at least 11lb, and the fifth subsequently won in handicap company too).

Pickett's Charge, however, didn't improve in his three further turf starts of 2016, though 7f might have been inadequate on one occasion and soft ground against him on another. He subsequently left Tony Coyle to join Richard Guest, who won with him on the AW during the winter.

His finished down the field at Pontefract (in the same race that Thaqaffa ran in) on his recent turf debut for his current yard, but wasn't disgraced having never been well positioned given how the race panned out and was noted putting in some late work. He's now 1lb below the mark he ran off in that Thirsk race last season and remains potentially well handicapped on turf on that evidence.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 May 17 12:12
Ascot Week, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 7.10 Chelmsford

This is very much on the speculative side, particularly given marked market weakness this morning and that he may appreciate a longer trip, however, a chance is taken at big odds from the inside draw.

It was probably a weak enough maiden that Ascot Week made his debut in at Wolverhampton (8.5f) last November behind a winner who won by double digits, but he did shape as though he'd benefit plenty from the experience; reluctant to load, then requiring reminders soon after the start, he appeared quite green and wasn't helped by being caught wide from 3f out, but kept on quite encouragingly and was going on at the finish.

Ascot Week has been gelded since and given the winter to mature further, and while improvement is definitely needed on that debut effort, that's quite possible if going the right way.

He is trained by Owen Burrows and ridden by Dane O'Neil, so I'm presuming there is a Hamdan connection here, and the Hamdan-owned favourite Alfarris (who caught the eye on debut) appears very strong in the betting.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 May 17 12:44
Nastenka, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.20 Nottingham

No surprise that Nastenka needed a step up in trip (9.5f) to get off the mark at the fifth attempt given she's out of a 12f / 2 mile winner who herself was out of an Italian 12f Listed winner. Her next start when stepped up slightly further in trip to 10f at Lingfield, saw her finish only 5th or 6th, but she still appeared to be in good form, travelling well off a steady pace, but not getting the clearest of runs in the straight and finishing with running left in her. The form of that steadily run affair may not be the most reliable, but the winner Emenem has since won a competitive Epsom handicap.

Nastenka is returning from three months off here, has the widest draw to contend with, and may ultimately be best suited by longer trips, but a chance is taken at the odds as she remains unexposed at the trip
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 May 17 21:34
Thaqaffa won but the three longshots failed to trouble the judge which all means half-a-point lost on the day.

May Running Total
P/L : -3.5

Win stat: 1/7 (14%)
Place stat: 2/7 (28%)

Points staked so far: 11

Overall Running Total
P/L : -26.05

Win stat: 8/82 (10%)
Place stat: 23/82 (28%)

Points staked so far: 143
Points lost on multiples: 7 (included in overall P/L)
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 May 17 21:47
Reckless Wave, 2pts win @ 4-1, 2.25 Wolverhampton

Reckless Wave shaped last season as though she was going to appreciate the step up to 12f, however, when she tried the trip on her final start of 2016 at Lingfield, she was left with a bit to do given the race didn't set up for a closer and she didn't get the clearest of runs either, and certainly left the impression she'd be worth another try at the trip.

She's returning from a winter break here, but fitness wasn't an issue on her reappearance last season, and she remains of interest at 12f.

Ballard Down, 2 pts win @ 7-2, 3.35 Wolverhampton

Ballard down shaped quite well on his reappearance at Kempton, possibly not best positioned how the race panned out and having to wait for a clear run before staying on well for second.

I noted him with longer trips in mind given his pedigree suggests he'll have no trouble staying further and it could bring about further improvement. However, he is being kept to a stretch-mile here, but a first-time visor could help sharpen him up, and with two known front runners (Count Montecristo and Bold Prediction) in the field hopefully this won't be run at a dawdle.

Tellovoi, 1pt win @ 12-1, 3.25 Pontefract

I selected Tellovoi last week after noting him at Redcar, when he didn't get the clearest of runs and might not have challenged on the best part of the track. Unfortunately, there was an issue getting the blind off at Chelmsford and he missed the break badly, in a race where it didn't look easy to come from off the pace.

He's given another chance here for the minimum stake.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 May 17 21:49
Also 1pt win double Reckless Wave (4-1) & Ballard Down (7-2)
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 17 14:35
Well that made for painful viewing, but I'll settle for it Crazy
By:
easygold
When: 03 May 17 15:48
Good work..
By:
PHS
When: 03 May 17 15:50
VWD with Ballard George; that looked like a very difficult race for only 7/2 with dangers abounding. Knight's in form though.

WD with 0.5 double too.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 17 15:56
Cheers, the notebook worked for a change Crazy Maybe picking the relative shorties is the way forward Wink

Re: Ballard Down, it was the ol' Steve Mellish angle regarding Selkirks and headgear (damire on this occasion) Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 17 15:56
*damsire
By:
Virgin
When: 03 May 17 16:02
Pour Lʼamour robs a bit off you George but wd double CoolCool

gl ...
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 17 16:12
Cheers Virgin, gutted about that but at the same time relieved cuz I thought she'd been caught watching live.

Tellovoi ran well, but he just had to work harder on the outer whereas the winner had that lovely rail run round Ponte, not saying it was the difference but it didn't help!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 17 16:35
May Running Total
P/L : +18.75

Win stat: 3/10 (30%)
Place stat: 5/10 (50%)

Points staked so far: 17

Overall Running Total
P/L : -3.8

Win stat: 10/85 (12%)
Place stat: 26/85 (30%)

Points staked so far: 149
Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L)
By:
madhatters
When: 03 May 17 17:16
WD GB
Can't knock the good days Grin
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 17 22:09
Cheers mad'
By:
Knight Commander
When: 03 May 17 22:13
Nice profit today GeCoolrge

VWD Happy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 17 22:14
Pearly Prince, 2pts win @ 9-2, 5.10 Lingfield

Pearly Prince was racing over 12f for the first time when having his first start for Martin Bosley over C/D 40 days ago in a race in which today's rivals Attain (finished 3rd), Bamako Du Chatelet (7th) and Karam Albaari (9th) also ran. There were a couple of hard luck stories, notably Pearly Prince, who was denied a clear run until it was too late before going on strongly when in clear.

Karam Albaari was another who seemed to be travelling well but failed to secure a clear run, while  Bamako Du Chatelet was forced to make his challenge on the outer and shaped better than the bare result.

I'm not sure Pearly Prince is the most straightforward (can start slowly, pull hard and race a little awkwardly), though having SDS on his back will help in that regard, but I've given him the vote as he remains relatively unexposed, particularly at the trip, and that stable debut suggested he could be well handicapped.

Bosphorous Prince is another interesting runner trying this trip for the first time, after shaping last time when second to a well handicapped winner that it may well suit.


Golly Miss Molly 1pt EW @ 16-1, 3.10 Lingfield

Golly Miss Molly is of a little interest back up to a more suitable trip; she was disappointing on her latest start at Lingfield(10f), but her two previous runs at the course over an inadequate one mile trip had suggested, like a number of her stablemates this year, that she had returned in good form, on the first occasion when ridden prominently before fading the final furlong, and then when making late gains having made her challenge up the inside rail.

Golly Miss Molly has now fallen to a mark 8lb below her peak rating of 2016, and interesting to see if the return to two miles prompts a more prominent showing.


Turasoir, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 7.50 Clonmel

I selected Turasoir the last time she ran (2m Dundalk) when I wrote:

Odd one this, as it's a case of a lightly-raced filly going into a maiden rated just 36 and coming out of it rated 18lb higher. Was she flattered to the finish third? The winner is rated in the 120s over hurdles, the runner-up has an official Flat rating of 75 (also had a good apprentice taking 5lb off) and is unexposed at the trip, while the fourth had recorded an RPR in the 70s on her debut at the track (albeit she didn't last for long in the Weld stable), and the fifth is also rated in the 120s over hurdles.

There were a few 'firsts', first run for the stable, first run over 2 miles and first run on the AW, so there are possible reasons why she might have improved.

The handicapper could have been harsher if taking the form with the runner-up literally, and while it has to be said she did look a little awkward when running on, she did hit the line well having possibly not been best positioned how the race panned out. She looks worth at least one chance to prove the run wasn't a fluke.


Turasoir was disappointing, slowly away and unable to make any impression up the straight, but as that maiden form from two runs back has worked out ok (fifth has won since, albeit on a surface she may have preferred, and the 2nd and 4th have since run well in a competitive Navan handicap), I'm tentatively going to give her another chance at big odds, although the surface is an unknown and given her sire the forecast quick ground may not be ideal.


Marino Marvel, 1pt win @ 6-1, 7.50 Cork

In the same race I'm going to have a 'saver' on Marino Marvel, who was trying 2 miles for the first time when chasing home improver Repare Mon at Dundalk and finishing clear of the third. His effort can probably be marked up given he wasn't best positioned given how that race panned out, while a visor may help him travel more kindly (had to be pushed along at times at Dundalk).

Marino Marvel had previously finished a good second to the same horse over 12f at Dundalk and certainly seems to have improved for trying longer distances. He does however have to prove himself on turf, his only two previous tries having come on soft / heavy on his first two career starts (started 66-1 and 200-1).
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 17 22:16
Thanks KC, let's hope it's not a flash in the pan, though at least a couple of risky ones tomorrow! Scared
By:
knavesmire007
When: 03 May 17 22:22
WD with the double George,good effort with Tellevoi.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 04 May 17 00:07
Cheers knaves
By:
craigie69
When: 04 May 17 15:18
good calll on molly
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 04 May 17 20:47
Unfortunately that was as good as it got, craigie, meaning a loss of 2pts on the day.

May Running Total
P/L : +16.75

Win stat: 3/14 (21%)
Place stat: 6/14 (43%)

Points staked so far: 24

Overall Running Total
P/L : -5.8

Win stat: 10/89 (11%)
Place stat: 27/89 (30%)

Points staked so far: 156
Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L)
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 04 May 17 21:49
Berrahri, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.10 Lingfield

Berrahri has probably run better than his final finishing position would suggest on his last two AW starts, at Chelmsford when doing too much from a wide draw and disputing the lead before fading inside the final furlong, then in what was probably a fair race for the grade at Kempton (Ballard Down and Alejandro have both won since), when setting a strong pace which ultimately favoured those that were held up.

This is an easier grade than either of those two races, his mark is a fair one based on the pick of his AW efforts, and from trap two he may not face too much competition for the lead if those tactics are adopted again. Josephine Gordon rides for the first time, and in the hope she can get the fractions right and at least hang on for a place, he is selected EW.

Seduce Me, 1pt win @ 7-1, 3.00 Musselburgh

Seduce Me finished fourth in the 6f race at Pontefract won by Commonwealth Cup entrant Brian The Snail, and the way she shaped there suggested she'd be worth another try at 7f, judging by the way she stayed on up the hill from an unpromising position. The form of that race could be working out better, it has to be said, but Seduce Me looks like she has a bit of size about her and is entitled to come on fitness-wise for it, and hopefully the step up in trip can eke out a little more improvement.

Brian The Snail's stablemate Atteq is sure to be popular after his emphatic success at Beverley last week and is 4lb well in here, though he doesn't have Adam McNamara's valuable 3lb claim on this occasion.
By:
Knight Commander
When: 05 May 17 16:19
Nice win with Berrahrri George Happy
By:
knot in wood
When: 05 May 17 16:31
yes nice winner george, back in profit only another 7 months to hold on.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 05 May 17 16:36
Cheers, a finely judged ride from Josephine, just!

20p rule 4 with the 2 nonners, but I'll settle for that!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 05 May 17 17:11
13 pts profit on the day. 2 decent days inside a week, things are looking up Crazy

May Running Total
P/L : +29.75

Win stat: 4/16 (25%)
Place stat: 7/16 (44%)

Points staked so far: 27

Overall Running Total
P/L : +7.2

Win stat: 11/91 (12%)
Place stat: 28/91 (31%)

Points staked so far: 159
Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L)


Rate reply:
By:
knavesmire007
When: 05 May 17 17:42
In the black,well done George
By:
PHS
When: 05 May 17 18:36
WD George. Nice winnerCool
By:
Virgin
When: 05 May 17 18:51
wd George Cool .... gl
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 05 May 17 21:36
Cheers all!

Wilde Extravagance 1pt EW @ 10-1, 2.30 Thirsk

Lightly-raced 4YO who got no luck whatsoever in the run on his reappearance two weeks ago over this C/D and shaped better than the bare result. He has been dropped a pound for that run, which leaves him 1lb above his winning mark from last season, but a concern is that this is a stronger grade than last time.

He could do with settling better as he tends to be keen in his races, but as he appeared in good form on his return, and a few of these are returning from a break, I'm going to take a chance EW for the minimum stake.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 06 May 17 16:36
The market vibes weren't good for Wilde Extravagance and they proved to be correct.

An EW selection for the 1000 Guineas on Sunday.

Intricately, 1pt EW @ 16-1 (quarter the odds a place), 3.35 Newmarket

Intricately finished behind Hydrangea and Winter in the 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown over 7f last month, but she was carrying a 3lb penalty for last season's Group 1 Moyglare success over the former, and I didn't think she was ever getting a clear run in the straight, always in behind rivals on the rail but keeping on nicely. The form of that trial received a couple of boosts when the third-placed Rehana easily won a Group 3 on her next start, and the well held Drumfad Bay came out and went close against male opposition in a Listed event.

Intricately's pedigree suggests a mile should suit well (possible the ground was too quick when she tried the trip at Santa Anita or the race was one too many), and although she has work to do to reverse last season's form with Rhododendron, she would appear to have sound place prospects at least here, provided the ground doesn't prove too lively for her.
By:
ellis
When: 06 May 17 19:13
Hi George,i see Natty Dresser is out tomorrow Leop 1.10.
Was in my tracker as well after first run.
Bloody thing opened up 25/1 but missed it Cry
Just had a small bet at 12/1.Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 06 May 17 19:47
Evening ellis, by the time I got round to looking at the other races it was already into 12s. It was on the speculative side when I selected it last time at 50-1, but shame it didn't run as it had the rail draw and that didn't look a disadvantage.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 06 May 17 21:01
A couple against the field in the 3.45 Hamilton, with possibly one from the front and one from off the pace, well that's the plan anyway!

Foresight, 1pt win @ 12-1, 3.45 Hamilton

I noted Foresight two starts back (second run for Kevin Ryan) over 7f at Newcastle when he seemed to do plenty out in front before fading in the final furlong, and on the back of that selected him on this thread when he ran over 6f at Thirsk on his latest start, when he was never in it and finished well held.

It's possible the ground was too quick for him at Thirsk, which would be a worry again, but I'm going to give him another chance over the C/D he won his maiden, having been dropped 5lb by the assessor and with cheekpieces applied.

Tommy G, 1pt win @ 7-1, 3.45 Hamilton

I noted Tommy G on his latest start when he finished 4th of 16 (with Buccaneers Vault behind) over 6f at Redcar behind Gin Inn The Inn, who went on to win easily on his next start.  A bit like an earlier thread selection Tellovoi, I wondered if he had challenged on what wasn't best part of the track looking at the card that day as a whole, though it's not something I'm adamant about as the final race confused the matter somewhat Crazy.

Whatever, it was a pleasing reappearance on his return from seven months off and he's entitled to come on from it. A concern I have is whether he'll prove better suited to further (by Makfi and he started off over 7f on his first two career starts and was going on at the finish both times), but hopefully the uphill finish here will suit if he's able to stay in touch.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 06 May 17 22:04
Not one of my better write-ups on Intricately, as she had Rhododendren behind her in the Moyglare when she reversed the form from their previous meeting in a Group 2. However, Rhododendren's quick ground form at Newmarket on a line through Hydrangea, would suggest Rhododendren is obviously the one to beat.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 17 13:46
Ground deffo looks on the quick side on the sprint track at Hamilton, which I'm not sure is ideal for either of my picks in the 3.45, but we'll see Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 17 15:11
Tommy G a NR.

Nice run from Elbereth at 25-1 (15pR4) earlier to finish 2nd to an O'Brien hotpot. Unfortunately I passed EW this time having selected her last time at Lingfield when she finished 4th Crazy
Page 14 of 32  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | ... | 32 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com