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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!

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By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 17 16:29
A bit of a shocker from Intricately, who seemed to be on pacemaking duties along with Hydrangea, and they both ended up dropping right out. So a disappointing weekend with 5 points lost.


May Running Total
P/L : +24.75

Win stat: 4/19 (21%)
Place stat: 7/19 (37%)

Points staked so far: 32

Overall Running Total
P/L : +2.2

Win stat: 11/94 (12%)
Place stat: 28/94 (30%)

Points staked so far: 164
Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L)


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By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 17 19:03
Jabbaar, 1pt win @ 9-4, 5.00 Ayr

Not best practice to be selecting one after missing the price, but there ya go Crazy

Jabbaar was making his debut for David Barron, having been bought out of Owen Burrows' stable for 22,000 guineas,  when catching the eye at Pontefract last month (1 mile). He finished behind Kiwi Bay that day, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as he was caught wide and then didn't get the clearest of runs before going on at the finish, and leaving the impression he will be winning races for his new yard. The form of that race is working out, with the 6th (Thaqaffa) and 7th (Zeshov) having won since.

He was a bit keen at Pontefract, so it's a concern to see blinkers applied (wore them once for previous yard), particularly as he's drawn on the outer here, while fast ground is a bit of a query, but he's given the vote for the minimum stake, having been dropped a pound by the assessor, and with Serena Brotherton booked.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 17 19:13
Another one that everyone else spotted... Grin

Newstead Abbey, 1pt win @ 5-1, 8.10 Chelmsford

Write up to follow Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 17 19:37
Newstead Abbey has falling a fair way in the weights, being 25lb below his last winning turf mark and 6lb below his last AW winning mark, and he was having just his fourth start for his current handler Michael Herrington when the market seemed to predict a revival in form on his latest start with first-time blinkers applied over 7f at Wolverhampton, being sent off at just 4-1. However, things didn't go to plan, being caught wide and keen, then soon getting involved in a speed duel, which he got the better off and led turning into the straight, but his exertions took their toll inside the final furlong, where he faded to finish 6th, beaten 3l.

He hasn't had many chances on the AW, nor in class 5 handicap company, and while the removal of the blinkers may not be a positive as they did seem to rekindle his enthusiasm, it would appear he has fallen to a mark he can be competitive off, so with Jim Crowley taking over in the saddle, he gets the vote for one point.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 17 19:43
* fallen Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 08 May 17 20:31
Absolutely no excuses for Newstead Abbey who got a lovely run round the inside tracking the pace, briefly threatened to get involved and hit evens in the run, but then found disappointingly little.

Jabbaar was poor, the addition of blinkers looked a strange one to me based on the Ponte run where he raced enthusiastically and seemed to be running on when he got daylight. Keeping an open mind on this one for the time being.

2 pts lost on the day.

May Running Total
P/L : +22.75

Win stat: 4/21 (19%)
Place stat: 7/21 (33%)

Points staked so far: 34

Overall Running Total
P/L : +0.2

Win stat: 11/96 (11%)
Place stat: 28/96 (29%)

Points staked so far: 166
Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L)
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 17 10:54
I decided not to go again with Sunday's pick Tommy G on account of the ground, as it was pulled out for that reason on Sunday. That said, it wasn't on the slow side at Redcar when he caught my eye and the step up to 7f looks likely to suit, and I see St Hugh has gone with it and halved the price. So it will be my bad if it goes and wins Crazy
By:
stridingedge
When: 09 May 17 13:18
I dread him selecting anything I fancy George, especially one I've been waiting on for a while.Sp's often fooked pretty early. Cry
By:
stridingedge
When: 09 May 17 13:34
I've got pullman brown today from my NB in the 3:00 up at AYR George.

Plugged on from nowhere at suvvers earlier in the year over inadequate 7f, had a turf spin at redcar on 2nd start for new barn and now sees the sort of trip he needs on a decent enough looking mark, fav taking a bigger chunk of market than i thought.Another slightly more recent run may have been ideal and no hood so far with Kirby just slight concerns.

8/1+ a decent looking price imo
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 17 13:48
Good luck striding

Funnily enough, I recall Hugh putting PB up the day it ran at Southwell, as he thought it looked interesting on pedigree for the surface, though he acknowledged trip / absence could be issues.

They seemed to make a bit of use of it at Redcar, not given an overly hard time in the closing stages, shaped well I thought.
By:
stridingedge
When: 09 May 17 13:53
I notebooked him after the suvvers run mate on debut for yard as was well back and outpaced before eating up the fibresand, 7f was never likely to suit that day but it hinted there was still something there and i passed next time as still thought it was a bit on the short side.

fingers crossed Wink
By:
stridingedge
When: 09 May 17 14:59
PB been backed into 6.0 from 9.0
By:
stridingedge
When: 09 May 17 15:03
never sighted

very disappointed with that
By:
saddo
When: 09 May 17 15:20
GE from grease. I've backed Luxford in the 8.30 leic. A little unlucky lto, mark is very low and not had much racing. Looking at a couple of drifters there also, kali spera.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 17 15:27
Hard lines striding

Good luck saddo. Though you've lost me with GE from grease!
By:
stridingedge
When: 09 May 17 15:28
Good evening from greece

on hols

enjoy saddo and gl Wink
By:
stridingedge
When: 09 May 17 15:29
yes George always a bit more annoying when they appear to be fancied late and run  a complete no show at conditions that should be spot on after a couple of decent efforts.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 17 18:57
Tuolumne Meadows, 1pt win @ 6-1, 5.55 Chelmsford

A bit on the tenatative side this as she's having to concede weigt-for-age to 3YOs who may be open to further improvement at the trip, particularly the odds-on favourite.

Tuolimne Meadows was unfortunate to run into a couple of useful sorts in 12f maidens at Kempton last season, a heavily-punted John Gosden-trained filly who was thought good enough to contest a Listed race on her next start, and then the 96-rated Moorside. She left the impression on each occasion, as she had done over a mile on her 2YO debut, that she stays quite well. She's a full sister to the 101-rated Tioga Pass (runner-up over 14f in Group 3 company) and a half-sister to the useful Circumvent, who also were both trained by Paul Cole.

Tuolumne Meadows disappointed on her final 3YO start over 12f at Kempton, but perhaps there was issue as she wasn't seen again  for eight months, and although she finished last of four on her reappearance and handicap debut (off a mark of 78) at Bath, 10f on firm ground was always likely to be on the sharp side for her and she didn't shape too badly in the circumstances.

She's off a little interest here now her stamina is tested more, with that pipe opener behind her, stepped up to 13.5f and back on the AW, with Adam Kirby booked and her stable among the winners (3-10 last 14 days).
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 May 17 17:41
Thursday

Extrasolar, 1pt win @ 7-1, 4.45 Catterick

Extrasolar was well held on his first two starts for Geoffrey Harker, but the last couple of runs have suggested he could be about to hit some form, at Newcastle on his penultimate start when not beaten far in a bunch finish in a race won by Art Collection, who would go on to win easily in a higher grade; and last time back on turf at Redcar over 6f, when tanking through the race and keeping on well after not getting the best of runs on possibly what wasn't the best part of the track to challenge on (Tommy G who also challenged on that part of the track and finished 4th, has since come out and won, while the winner Gin In The Inn has since sluiced up on his next start before just being pipped at Chester on Wednesday).

Extrasolar has dropped 10lb in the ratings since joining Geoffrey Harker from Amanda Perrett, which leaves him 11lb below his last winning mark, and 10lb below the mark he finished runner up off last August, so with the ground set to remain on the fast side and in his favour, he gets the vote in this race for "veterans".
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 May 17 17:41
Thursday

Extrasolar, 1pt win @ 7-1, 4.45 Catterick

Extrasolar was well held on his first two starts for Geoffrey Harker, but the last couple of runs have suggested he could be about to hit some form, at Newcastle on his penultimate start when not beaten far in a bunch finish in a race won by Art Collection, who would go on to win easily in a higher grade; and last time back on turf at Redcar over 6f, when tanking through the race and keeping on well after not getting the best of runs on possibly what wasn't the best part of the track to challenge on (Tommy G who also challenged on that part of the track and finished 4th, has since come out and won, while the winner Gin In The Inn has since sluiced up on his next start before just being pipped at Chester on Wednesday).

Extrasolar has dropped 10lb in the ratings since joining Geoffrey Harker from Amanda Perrett, which leaves him 11lb below his last winning mark, and 10lb below the mark he finished runner up off last August, so with the ground set to remain on the fast side and in his favour, he gets the vote in this race for "veterans".
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 May 17 17:42
* one point only Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 May 17 21:08
Father McKenzie, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.55 Lingfield

Father McKenzie was having his first start for James Eustace when reappearing over 5f at Nottingham two starts back, and he didn't seem to be without market support, being backed into 12-1 from 33-1, but although he did best of those who raced close to the stands' rail, that was only good enough for 5th overall.

I'm not absolutely sure if there was a bit of a bias that day favouring those drawn low (first two home were drawn 1 and 2 in a field of 14), but it's interesting to note that the filly who raced hard up against the stands' rail in that race was Quench Dolly, who could only finish 8th, and she has since come out and bolted up at Leicester (albeit she might have had the draw in her favour this time).

Father McKenzie was stepped up in grade for his latest start over 6f at Doncaster and could make no impact, but he's of a little interest now eased back in grade, having been eased 2lb by the handicapper, with the possibilty that the Nottingham run might have been better than the bare result suggested.

See And Be Seen, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 5.35 Ascot

See And Be Seen isn't coming into this race in much form so a leap of faith is required, but that was also the case when he ran over this C/D last July in the Class 2 Brown Jack Handicap, finishing 3l fourth from 3lb 'wrong' behind a couple in Sea Of Heaven and Nakeeta who would go on to to place in valuable and competitive handicaps.

See And Be Seen has a bit to prove having run poorly on his latest start, but if the return to turf and this C/D in particular prompts a revival in form as it did the last time he raced here, then despite being 2lb 'wrong' on this occason, he looks fairly handicapped on that 'Brown Jack' form.
By:
PHS
When: 12 May 17 16:04
Nice placer GeorgeCool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 May 17 18:51
Ta PHS, unfortunately the other one wasn't able to hang on to a place after momentarily looking like he might. Oh well, no damage done on the day Plain

10p R4 for Father McKenzie.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 May 17 18:57
May Running Total
P/L : +21.35

Win stat: 4/25 (16%)
Place stat: 9/25 (36%)

Points staked so far: 40

Overall Running Total
P/L : -1.2

Win stat: 11/100 (11%)
Place stat: 30/100 (30%)

Points staked so far: 172
Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L)
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 May 17 22:57
Cornborough, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.25 Nottingham

Cornborough could make no impression on his reappearance at Pontefract, but he was never in a good position as the race panned out, however he was noted hitting the line well; that was his first run on the Flat for over a year having generally been in good form over hurdles in the interim where he has improved to a peak mark of 132, and that could suggest a mark of 70 is a favourable one if carrying that apparent improvement back over to the Flat.

He did miss an engagement at Beverley earlier this month on account of the quick ground but that shouldn't be an issue this time.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 May 17 23:41
Johnny Barnes, 1pt win @ 12-1, 3.45 Haydock

With rain about a chance is taken on Johnny Barnes for the minimum stake. He failed to win last season but shaped on my more than one occasion as though retaining all of his ability, as when not disgraced in the Ayr Gold Cup despite not getting the clearest of runs, and shaping a deal better than his final position suggested when denied a clear on his final start of 2016 over 6f at Doncaster.

This relatively small field Listed event represents a different scenario from those big field handicaps, but it shouldn't be an issue as all three of his career wins have come in small fields.

He did have an entry in the autumn sales, so perhaps it's significant that his major yard have decided to keep hold of him, and although this may be a pipe-opener for more valuable races ahead, he may be worth risking at a double figure price, particularly if the rain has arrived.
By:
PHS
When: 13 May 17 12:15
JB a nr
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 May 17 13:05
Mobsta out too, they must consider the ground to be still on the quick side.
By:
PHS
When: 13 May 17 13:48
No Bossy Guest today! I'm surprised that you haven't been tempted, but think you're right not to be, as the Spring Cup run suggested a mile would be his best trip. I think that the fact you haven't picked it and that you only have one selection today shows good restraint, and hope that pays off come the end of this thread.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 13 May 17 14:32
Haven't looked in for a while, haven't seen much racing actually, but good to see the thread in profit George.

Our old friend Captain Scooby is turned out quickly tonight after running reasonably well yesterday evening. Over the past two years hes made a habit of running very well when turned out very quickly. On the face of it these conditions wouldn't be an ideal test for him but I wouldn't be shocked to see him finishing to great effect tonight.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 May 17 14:37
I couldn't be sure he'll come out of the stalls this time, PHS, so there's one good reason for me not to select him!
Tbh, the one selection is more laziness than restraint! Wink

I did consider a couple around the 50-1 mark for selection in that but in the end decided to pass.

If I have a few options in a race of that nature, I tend to let the price dictate the choice, which is what happened when I picked Bossy Guest last time.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 May 17 14:40
mackies, I've actually included him in a small EW multiple. I wasn't convinced the stands rail was the best place to be there last week, so had a look at those drawn low tonight, but who knows!
By:
mackies-fc
When: 13 May 17 14:46
I was gonna put Mighty Zip up as I think theres a draw bias evident at Nottingham.

Im now convinced there is a draw bias at Nottingham!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 May 17 18:34
Pearly Prince, 1pt win @ 11-2, 4.20 Brighton

Pearly Prince was returning from nine months off and having his first run for Martin Bosley when very much catching the eye at Lingfield (AW) on his first attempt at 12f, beng denied a clear run in the straight before going on strongly at the finish when in the clear. I then selected him on this thread on the back of that on his latest start over the same C/D when he could only finish 6th of 9, beaten under 3l, when it looked like he could have done with a stronger pace to run at.

Pearly Prince doesn't look the easiest, as he can be slowly away, pull hard, and race awkwardly, but he has shown enough to suggest that if he consents to put it all in, he's on a mark he can win off. This is only his second turf start, however, so has to prove himself on the surface; and while a small field tactical affair may not suit, hopefully with a first-time visored Tempurian in the field, this won't be run at a dawdle.

Secret Advisor, 2ps win @ 5-1, 5.50 Windsor

Presumably, Secret Advisor hadn't shown much at home to have been sent off at 7-1 for a Thirsk maiden on his debut, but he created a really favourable impression in the race itself, overcoming a tardy start to run down a Roger Varian-trained odds-on shot well inside the final furlong and be well on top at the finish despite the narrow winning margin.

Perhaps it wasn't the strongest of maidens, but he's a well bred, good looking son of Dubawi, who should improve for the experience and the step up in trip, so interesting to see how he progresses (or regresses!).
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 May 17 19:55
I do have a further and more 'guessy' pick to make, but as it may drift, I'll hang on till later or in the morning Plain
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 17 08:27
Fidra Bay, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 4.00 Wetherby

A bit on the speculative side this one, and perhaps fillies' only handicaps may be a better option further down the line, but at a price a chance is taken.

Fidra Bay was returning from a year off when reappearing recently over 7f at Musselburgh, and as can be the case round there on quick ground, it wasn't easy to come from the off pace, and in the circumstances I thought she wasn't disgraced, particularly as she didn't get the clearest of runs. The first two home in that race both came into it in good form (the runner-up was Tadaawol who reopposes here), while the third has won since.

Fidra Bay seemed to improve for the step up to a mile last season when finishing runner up twice, so doubt 7f round Musselburgh would be her optimum trip, and she's potentially well handicapped given the two fillies she finished second to are now both rated 11lb higher.

As one of those runner-up spots came on heavy ground, Fidra Bay shouldn't mind what the weather does, so with that pipe opener behind her and a handy draw to work from, hopefully she can run well and justify the selection at rewarding odds.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 17 10:39
Pearly Prince is a NR

Englishman, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 6.50 Windsor

Englishman has been beaten a total of 24.5 lengths in two starts this season, but both runs have come on ground that might have been quick enough for him, so with rain around he's off a little EW interest at big odds. He won over this C/D on soft ground early last season off a mark 2lb higher than today's, and then followed up at Newmarket following another 3lb rise.

His two wins last season did come on the back off a highly encouraging reappearance at Doncaster in a big field, so he does need to prove he's in some sort of form this time around, but if the ground does a make a difference to him then he's clearly on a good mark based on his peak efforts of last season.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 17 11:02
Straight Ash, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 6.20 Windsor

It probably wasn't the strongest of novice races that Straight Ash made his debut in at Leicester, but he did leave the impression he could come on considerably for the experience; sent off at just 7-2 for that class 5 event, he was noticeably green and soon lost an early tracking position and found himself well off the pace, but when the penny started to drop he picked up very well to be going on nicely at the finish.

Others bring stronger form into this race, while there is a Godolphin debutant who heads the market that cost a small fortune at the breeze ups this year, so Stright Ash will need to have made improvement from his debut, but that's quite possible and perhaps it's significant that his stable are running him in this relatively valuable class 3 novice rather than seeking easier pickings.
By:
knot in wood
When: 15 May 17 13:34
was going to mention englishman earlier george,although he won that newmarket race on so called good ground he really is dependent on getting soft.

he's going to fall in sooner or later.

notice taylor as put up goring in that...good luck today
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