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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
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Apologies George I had yours mixed with Cribbs Causeway, did not mean to post after the race!!!!!
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No worries Micky, hope you have better luck next time.
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July Running Total
P/L : +25.45 Win stat: 4/19 (21%) Place stat: 5/19 (26%) Points staked so far: 31 Overall Running Total P/L : +47.80 Win stat: 26/250 (10%) Place stat: 67/250 (27%) Points staked so far: 402 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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I was hoping the forecast rain would arrive for both of today's picks, but looking at the update on the BHA site it doesn't look like it has yet, and drying ground would be a concern for both.
Archie's Advice, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 2.10 Ayr Archie's Advice shaped well on his reappearance over C/D in May when a close-up 4th behind Euchan Glen in a race that has worked out ok, and he caught my eye in one of his subsequent runs at Hamilton when I thought he ran ok considering ground and pace might have been against him; he's been a bit disappointing since, but he is back on his last winning mark and 4lb lower than for that reappearance run, plus the forecast rain will be a help if it arrives. He's doesn't look the easiest, but he does have a respectable win record, and I note this will be the first time Graham Lee has ridden him, whose relatively quiet riding style will hopefully suit him. Lavetta, 1pt win @ 14-1, 4.20 Ayr I thought Lavetta shaped better than the bare result on her reappearance at Newmarket in April, racing a bit keenly and showing up well until perhaps not handling the dip on the quick ground and losing her position, before keeping on again when meeting the rising ground and then being eased in the closing stages. She's only had one run since and that came on Tapeta at Newcastle, where she faded out of it having perhaps over-raced on the front end. Lavetta has been eased 2lb, which still leaves her 3lb above her last winning mark, but the forecast rain will suit if it arrives, and she did run well on her sole start at this course last October off a 3lb lower mark than today's, when keeping on well over 7f on soft ground to finish 3rd of 13 in the same grade as today's. So under what may be more suitable conditions than she's faced on her first two starts this season, Lavetta's given a vote at the prices for the minimum stake. |
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I sort of envisaged Archie's Advice would be dropped in, got some cover and smuggled into the race, but no, rushed up after being slow away and found himself racing 3-wide with the choke out. Lovely stuff from Lee.
That said, the horse is a stargazer (well that's one way of putting it), who didn't look too enthusiastic up the straight imo, and safe to say he won't be selected on this thread again. Maybe he'll fall in again at Hamilton after his rating is dropped a bit more, when he can run past lower grade rivals who are stopping in front. |
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Needs softer ground and a less competitive race imo.
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...mind you, the times were pretty slow, so maybe the ground wasn't the problem.
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Class 4 0-15
Class 5 4-8 |
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Can't argue with those stats, PHS, even if he was back on his last winning mark today, and what I said above.
My other pick just pulled whatever chance she had away by refusing to settle, and can see why she has a better record at 7f. |
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July Running Total
P/L : +22.45 Win stat: 4/21 (19%) Place stat: 5/21 (24%) Points staked so far: 33 Overall Running Total P/L : +44.80 Win stat: 26/252 (10%) Place stat: 67/252 (26%) Points staked so far: 404 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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I could say don't ditch him as you've intimated but wait for the right class and conditions. Problem is when those occur, from that stable, he's never going to be a juicy price (which I think is what you like).
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Jack Dexter, 1pt win @ 4-1, 4.25 Ayr
Jack Dexter shaped well in the valuable Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh last month, noted travelling well but not getting any luck in the run. I selected him on his latest run at Newcastle in the Gosforth Park Cup, when he confirmed the impression he is in good form, moving well into contention but not having the pace on the surface to go with the prinicpals in the closing stages. He's returned to turf here and can race off a 4lb lower mark than he ran off at Musselburgh, with a 7lb claimer up to ease his burden further, and this will be the first time since the 2012 season that he has raced outside of class 1 or 2 company. The ground will have some ease in it and there should be a good pace on to run at, so hopefully everything looks in place for a good run. New Decade, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 4.55 Ayr This is on the more speculative side. New Decade was returning from a long absence and making his debut for Jim Goldie when shaping well over 6f at Thirsk in April, noted making up plenty of ground from an unpromising position. A bit of a mixed bag since but he ran well not to be beaten far here over 6f in May. I selected him two starts back over today's C/D, when he wasn't without market support, but was unable to land a blow from a wide draw. As he was then, he's again having to race from just outside of the handicap, but the ground may suit better this time and Sean Mooney, who was aboard when New Decade ran well over 6f here in May, rides him again for the first time since and can take 7lb off. |
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There may be another win in Jack Dexter but it wasn't today, and with New Decade finishing 4th, it all means 3 pts lost on the day.
July Running Total P/L : +19.45 Win stat: 4/23 (17%) Place stat: 5/23 (22%) Points staked so far: 36 Overall Running Total P/L : +41.80 Win stat: 26/254 (10%) Place stat: 67/254 (26%) Points staked so far: 407 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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Loveatfirstsight, 1pt EW @ 15-2, 3.35 Wolverhampton
Loveatfirstsight was third behind the favourite for this race Viola Park when they met over C/D two weeks ago, but I thought her effort wanted marking up given she was caught wide and keen without cover, and in the circumstances I thought she did well to sustain her challenge up the straight. She has come down the weights and is now 10lb below her initial mark, and granted a kinder trip this time, must have prospects of turning the form around with Viola Park on the revised terms, provided the first time cheekpieces don't have a negative effect. Camaradorie, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 3.55 Wolverhampton Camaradorie shaped well when 3rd over this C/D back in January, noted travelling well on the surface but not getting the clearest of runs up the straight and looking unlucky not to have gone closer; that was just a class 6 Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes, but the runner-up went into it rated 70, the winner went on to win a handicap off 63, and the fourth subsquently ran well off 62 in a Kempton handicap that produced subsequent winners. Camaradorie went handicapping off a mark of 60 over 7f at Lingfield in March, when she ran well not to be beaten far in a race that also produced subsequent winners. Following a 3-month break she's had a couple of races at Yarmouth, and although she's been disappointing, she was probably on the wrong part of the track on the first occasion, and might have found a mile stretching her last time. Today's race looks quite competitive, particularly as it's open to older horses too, but Camaradorie remains of interest on the AW and interesting to see if a return to this surface prompts a better performance. |
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* first pick 3.25
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I got the bit right about Loveatfirstsight reversing the form with Viola Park, but unfortunately for me, one that had plummeted in the weights chose the wrong day to come back to life.
Camaradorie looks pretty limited on today's evidence, and maybe her best chance of a win will be back against her own sex / age group. 1.5 pts lost on the day July Running Total P/L : +17.95 Win stat: 4/25 (16%) Place stat: 6/25 (24%) Points staked so far: 40 Overall Running Total P/L : +40.30 Win stat: 26/256 (10%) Place stat: 68/256 (26%) Points staked so far: 411 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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Wednesday
Ode To Glory, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 2.35 Yarmouth Not much went right for Ode To Glory on her latest start which came over this course and distance, held up last in a steadily run race, before not getting a clear run up the rail as the principals kicked for home, and by the time she was switched for a clear run it was too late but she did keep on quite well. Potential negatives to her chance here are that she's up in grade and the ground may be quicker this time, but she has dropped 6lb from her initial mark and she's lightly raced enough for me to take a chance at the price. Cupid's Arrow, 1pt win @ 7-1, 5.35 Catterick Cupid's Arrow ran well three starts back over this C/D in a rated maiden, making headway against a pace bias before not getting much luck in the closing stages. I selected him on his next start over 6f at Thirsk when he again shaped better than the bare result, having to switch away from what was probably the better gound, but still finishing his race off well. He has since run well in a stronger grade than this on his AW debut at Newcastle, and remains of interest back on turf, having been eased slightly in the ratings again. Red Gunner, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 6.05 Catterick Red Gunner was having his second run for David O'Meara when finishing last of 8 runners over 6f at Leicester on his latest start, but that in no way told the full story as it's likely he would have challenged for a place at least had he not found his path blocked on more than one occasion; the form of that handicap looks sound with the first and second having won since. He has been dropped 2lb and is eased in grade here, but the concern is he has to prove he can handle the forecast softer ground, but at the prices a chance is taken. Angelito, 1pt win @ 7-1, 8.10 Bath Caught the eye at Sandown last season on his third run for Tony Newcombe; now rated 50 which a stone lower than for that Sandown run, and a lot lower than he has been rated in the past; he can start slowly, but suspect if he can get away on terms, one of these days he will be winning. |
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July Meeting - Day 1
Face The Facts, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 1.50 Newmarket Face The Facts looks up against it in the Bahrain Trophy on official figures, but he does make a bit of EW appeal at the price, certainly relative to Desert Skyline's price on their running in the Queen's Vase (14f) at Royal Ascot, in which neither got the best of runs up the straight. Face The Facts met with trouble twice, being slightly impeded by the eventual winner around 2f out when trying to make headway, and then when having to snatch up in the closing stages as he found his path blocked. He looks a big unit who doesn't do anything quickly, so probably fair to say the interference didn't do him any favours. Whether that form will be good enough for this is questionable, but that was his first try at beyond 12f and he still looks open to some improvement, and although this drop back to 13f may not suit as well as 14f, he may appreciate the slower surface more. |
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Orvar, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 4.35 Newmarket
Orvar has only had four starts for Robert Cowell, and his two starts this year for his new stable have suggested he should be up to winning off his current mark of 92 (he ended his juvenile campaign for Richard Hannon rated 101). On his seasonal return he finished second to Edgar Lewis, who has since looked a shade unlucky in the Epsom 'Dash', before running well in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, and Orvar's latest start at Ayr was probably better than the bare facts, given he raced prominently on a day when it paid to be held up, but he stuck on well for third despite having been keen enough. His mark has remained unchanged, and first time cheekpieces may eke out a little improvement, so although this is a rise in grade, he appeals as the sort his trainer could do well with. |
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Elleval, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 7.55 Leopardstown
Elleval had suggested at this year's Dubai Carnival that he still retains plenty of ability, notably when finishing second off a mark of 100 to Folkswood, who went on to finish runner-up to Decorated Knight in the Group 1 Jebal Hatta. His runs back on home soil didn't exactly scream he's a well handicapped horse, though he ran well in a Dundalk Fast-Track Qualifier for the AW Finals Day, but I selected him for the Royal Hunt Cup at a huge price as I wondered if a race of that nature would suit his usual hold-up style. As it turned out his low draw was right against him, but he ran well to finish 10th of the 29 runners, particularly as he made his challenge up the middle of the track and away from the favoured stands' rail. His mark has now fallen to below 100 for the first time since February 2012, and the signs are he's still capable of winning a race of this nature when things pan out more favourably. |
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I should have done an EW acca, 3 placed and a NR
 . The longshot was selected EW, so a tiny profit on the day and no damage done.No excuses for Angelito there, was given a proper ride, but could only plug on for third, so a mark of 50 nowadays would appear to be not far wrong  July Running Total P/L : +19.35 Win stat: 4/28 (16%) Place stat: 9/28 (32%) Points staked so far: 44 Overall Running Total P/L : +41.70 Win stat: 26/259 (10%) Place stat: 71/259 (27%) Points staked so far: 415 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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A bad day at black rock with 6 points lost.
Face The Facts just looked slow, maybe he needs soft / heavy ground, if only to slow the others down too. Orvar, no apparent excuses, just didn't look up to that grade, so can file that one away in the bulky file entitled 'ones I got wrong'. Elleval, maybe they should look for another race at Ascot and hope for better luck with the draw July Running Total P/L : +13.35 Win stat: 4/31 (13%) Place stat: 9/31 (29%) Points staked so far: 50 Overall Running Total P/L : +35.70 Win stat: 26/262 (10%) Place stat: 71/262 (27%) Points staked so far: 421 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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GL George, not looked in for a while, only one day behind with replays now. 14 runners today, might decide to go cycling to avoid any carnage. I have backed City Guest 2.50 Ascot, still remembering the Brighton run, and a helluva weight turnaround with the jolly. My Brother is at Sligo today if you've got owt m8.
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Ignore Sligo ffs. I'll find his email, but he's racing today.
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Good luck with City Guest, saddo. I've got a list as long as ya arm today
Navan today? The 20-1 shot (Dancing Duke) that came 3rd on your Bellewestown thread, I see it went and won over hurdles 2 days later when a heavily backed 9-4 fav, not that it was any good to your brother by that point but I thought it was an 'interesting' run the time before at Ballinrobe. |
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Never checked em George, that's a fair spot. I've not had so many runners in a day for three years or more, crazy.
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Marnie James, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 4.20 York
A speculative chance is taken on Marnie James at huge odds, who shaped well on his debut at Redcar in April, travelling strongly in a prominent position and showing up well for a most of the journey before running green off the bridle and losing places inside the final furlong; he was then a respectable second at Hamilton to Unfortunately (who has been given a rating of 101), who has since gone on to be Listed placed in France and was then just touched off in the Spindrifter Stakes at Pontefract; the third horse at Hamilton, Armed Response, subsequently won a maiden at that track and was given an initial rating of 81. The trouble is Marnie James hasn't come close to that form in his two starts since, so a leap of faith is now required, but the fitting of a tongue-tie and the switch to nursery company off a mark of 73 may show him in a better light. |
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Thomas Crown, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 9.20 Carlisle
Thomas Crown didn't last long with James Tate, being sold for just £4,500 after only one start, and not a lot to shout about in a few starts for Roger Fell, but I did think he shaped ok stepped up to 10f on his latest start at Beverley, possibly not best positioned given how the race panned out, then not getting the clearest of runs up the straight, but keeping on well and suggesting that a stiffer test may show him in a better light. There are useful 12f winners close up in his pedigree on his dam's side, so interesting to see if this further step up in trip to 11f can prompt a better showing, and he has dropped 7lb from his initial rating. |
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Black Grass, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.55 York
Black Grass is very weak in the betting here which has to be a concern, along with his jockey's inexperience for a race of this nature, but he has looked in good form on his last couple of starts, finishing runner-up at Hamilton when possibly disadvantaged by making his challenge up the middle of the track, and last time in the "Jump Jockeys Nunthorpe", when making eye-catching late progress; he's was behind Tylery Wonder and Barshiba last time, but he is better off at the weights today, and if his apprentice can get a tune out of him (and he did win an apprentices' race on him earlier in the season), hopefully he can at least challenge for a place. |
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Blimey George thats some shout, VWD
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Top Top Tipping George
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BBB
M  |
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Cheers. If the handicapper had his sums right for the 1st and 3rd in that Hamilton race, 73 looked workable, and it was just a case of what had gone wrong the last twice
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George, what would your Overall Total be if you took out 20/1 and over backs (inc placed when given ew)?
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PHS, I gave up with the spreadsheet a good while ago and just update daily on here, but as I've said before, it's just a bit of interest, I've no intention of doing any analysis to paralysis.
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Fair enough!
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brilliant tipping george, a very big well done
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Cheers tm.
Disappointing from the final pick, but held up last in a race where they're 10 secs outside standard on g/f, nuff said. |
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10p Rule 4, leaving +31.64 on the day.
July Running Total P/L : +45.19 Win stat: 5/33 (15%) Place stat: 10/33 (30%) Points staked so far: 56 Overall Running Total P/L : +67.34 Win stat: 27/265 (10%) Place stat: 72/265 (27%) Points staked so far: 427 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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Bang on GB
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