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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
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Saved By The Bell @ 10/1
Bobcatbilly @ 20/1 Yorkidding @ 7/1 Footsteps Forever @ 6/1 nice little e/w 15 then george  |
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I noted Footsteps Forever on her debut, but it's mainly middle distance breeding on the dam's side, Yavana's Pace, etc. So just wonder from a wide draw against some likely looking debutantes whether there'll be other days further down the line, but she did shape OK on her debut, so who knows with that experience behind her. Good luck chav.
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without seeming pedantic george,why the exclamation mark on the thread title;was it a resignation of defeat before it started
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if so i fear it may be a self fulfilling prophesy
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You make a valid point chav, in which case I should stop posting now, at least then I can say the thread ended in profit!
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!
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Lovely start, chav
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well,a bit of a mixed bag really george,1 winner for me and yours was beaten out of sight
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Good price chavvers, 3x odds?
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lost again today
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What can I say chav, stick with Pricewise would be my advice.
As for Saved By The Bell, he was in a good spot just before they turned in, seemingly going well, but the response in the straight was disappointing. I couldn't even say he didn't stay, cuz he didn't weaken right out of it, he just plodded on, beaten 6 lengths. |
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ive always had a nagging suspicion that bigmart has some influence over your selections;can you confirm or deny this for me please
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I took a flyer on Joy's Delight, George, hammered with R4/RF
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ok chav, I've got a confession to make, it was mart that was picking them in May when the thread was over 90 pts in profit; either side it's been me with poor results; so there you have it.
Good luck, saddo. |
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Nathan Mayer, 2pts win @ 4-1, 8.20 Windsor
Nathan Mayer caught the eye in a couple of his qualifying runs prior to winning on handicap debut over 10f at Nottingham (the third Alexander M has since run well in a Goodwood handicap prior to getting off the mark in a classified race at Doncaster), and his latest start in an 11f handicap at Kempton suggested his revised mark may not be beyond him, just being done for a bit of toe on the surface before not getting a clear run as he tried to make headway. He was behind Footman at Kempton and he's no good thing to reverse the form with that rival who himself looks open to improvement, but a 2lb pull will help, as perhaps will the return to turf. It may also be helpful that Ryan Moore has now ridden the horse in a race, because as seems to be the case with a lot of these Nathaniels, they're not push button quickeners and maybe Moore will be mindful to wind the horse up from some way out to ensure it doesn't turn into a sprint. Nathan Mayer has been weak in the betting today, and quick ground is a question mark for him, but he appeals as a horse who still has improvement to come. |
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I think there may be a 3 mile hurdle round Towcester waiting for Nathan Mayer
June Running Total P/L : -32.85 Win stat: 4/72 (5%) Place stat: 17/72 (23%) Points staked so far: 110 Overall Running Total P/L : +36.15 Win stat: 22/220 (10%) Place stat: 61/220 (28%) Points staked so far: 357 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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Selections for Tuesday
Clean Cut, 1pt win @ 12-1, 4.00 Beverley Doctor Dynamite, 1pt win @ 17-2, 4.00 Beverley All For Nothing, 1pt win @ 12-1, 7.50 Ballinrobe Turasoir, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 7.50 Ballinrobe Katrine, 1pt win @ 10-1, 9.15 Leicester |
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GEORGE.B 27 Jun 17 13:06 Joined: 14 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 35,205 | Blogger: GEORGE.B's blog
I think there may be a 3 mile hurdle round Towcester waiting for Nathan Mayer Yes, gutted |
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GL today George
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There's no denying it, June has been woeful. The EW pick Turasoir finished off well, but too late to snatch 3rd, which all means 6 pts lost on the day.
June Running Total P/L : -38.85 Win stat: 4/77 (5%) Place stat: 17/77 (22%) Points staked so far: 116 Overall Running Total P/L : +30.15 Win stat: 22/226 (10%) Place stat: 61/226 (27%) Points staked so far: 363 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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Billyfairplay, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 6.20 Naas
Billyfairplay didn't shape too badly in first time blinkers over 6f at Fairyhouse 11 days ago, when probably doing a bit too much from a wide draw to get across to the rail and lead by a few lengths, before surrendering the lead inside the final furlong and fading to fifth of 17. He has been eased 2lb for that effort and this is a slight drop in grade to 45 - 65 from a 45 -75 (though this is an all-aged handicap whereas the Faiyhouse race was confined to 3YOs), so in the hope the blinkers continue to have a positive effect and his energy can be used more efficiently this time, he is selected EW. |
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* from a 45 - 70
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Overall Running Total
P/L : +28.15 Win stat: 22/227 (10%) Place stat: 61/227 (27%) Points staked so far: 365 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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I've decided it's time for a change of direction on the thread, enough of these speculative longshots who might have done too much on the front end, or had a wide trip and shaped well in the circumstances, etc, etc, from now on all selections posted on this thread will be maximum stake picks, that is 10 pts win or 5 points EW.
So the only selections posted from now on will be strong fancies, when a strong case can be made, and factors like draw, going, pace, etc, are not in doubt. Obviously that means there will be far fewer selections. Disclaimer: A profit is not guaranteed! |
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Best to stick to what you're doing for the sake of the thread, George.
Confidence would be back with 1 decent priced winner, going 5 or 10pts is paper bet chasing Just think to yourself, "what would Sir Hugh do in this situation!" You're still well ahead and will turn it around! GL |
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Not chasing JD, cuz that's one thing this thread could never be accused of, having not staked more than 2pts on a horse; rather a decision to just focus on the stronger fancies, for better or worse! Though as said, it's obviously going to mean far fewer selections.
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GL with the change George. Was thinking only the other day when was the last 3, 4 or 5 point selection?
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Calm down George, no horse is worth a 10pt win.... stick the way your going it will turn around, the only advice I can give you is that notebook horses are notebook horses when to play them is the key.... if I can comment, some of your selections are possibly strange notebook horses but you go to the races they are running and just because they are in your notebook you feel you have to select them??? but that race may not be the right race for the reason you put it in the notebook in the first place......
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Actually, them 10-pointers look a bit scary, but if I ever come across one, I will put it up
 Your comments are welcome easygold, but preferably before the race, and as you found out with Earthly, just cuz you don't fancy it, it don't mean it won't win! I do have an initial pick for tomorrow, which I'll post shortly, but it's only for 1 pt  |
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Endless Gold, 1pt win @ 5-1, 5.00 Newmarket
Endless Gold responded positively to cheekpieces when finishing runner-up at Sandown on his latest start, but the drop back in trip to 7f looked against him, not having the pace to go with the winner and looking like he might struggle to hold on for a place before keeping on well to finish 2nd. It's perhaps not surprising he found 7f too sharp given his dam's side of the pedigree isn't short of stamina (dam sister to middle distance winners and half-sister to a smart stayer), and he should appreciate the step back up in trip to a mile. He is up in grade here and that would normally be enough to put me off, but it catches my eye that he's by Dubawi and all his four turf starts so far have come on good to firm, so interesting to see if he improves for encountering an easy surface for the first time. It could be given the stamina on his dam's side, it's 10f + trips that he needs rather than easier ground, but at the odds he gets the vote. |
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Endless Gold, you are actually saying it in your write-up middle distance.... 10f we will see the best out of it.... you may get 16/1+ plus in running when he comes off the bridle between the 4f- 3f marker and if his rivals don`t put it to bed you might get lucky...
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Calm down dear, all I'm saying is, if you want to criticise any selection then you're more than welcome to do so, and I welcome it, but for credibility it has to be before the race, and I reiterate, when you did that with Earthly, the horse went and won, after you had said it wouldn't stay and it wouldn't be quick enough.
Earthly has gone btw, it was just a selection on that day having caught my eye at Salisbury. It doesn't mean I'll be selecting it every time it runs. |
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Exactly ... like I said about that class 7 so-called plodder who is not a race horse ... but hey you forgot I mentioned that one before it ran.... A bad month is nothing, sure everyone has them.... Opinions are great to have.... not criticism from me at all opinions just opinions. Like my opinion about Bletchley today...
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Actually, it was after (not before) I had selected it at Lingfield, but I did go and pick it again at Chelmsford (when it might have had an excuse).
He's a lowly rated horse who isn't up to much, but in a class 7 he'll be up again worse / similar sorts, and he has enough form in class 6s to suggest he can win a class 7, but we'll see... Well done with your BP prediction / lay. |
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Yes if you deleted it you would have saved yourself something, so yes it was before you selected it. we can play the game your playing
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Ice Lord, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 4.25 Newmarket
Shady McCoy, 1pt win at 15-2, 4.25 Newmarket Ice Lord seemed to lose his way in the second half of last season for Clive Cox, and he was well held on his debut for Chris Wall at Chelmsford in April, but his second run for his new yard over 7f on the Rowley Mile was a lot more encouraging, making up a deal of ground from the rear and just failing to catch one who might have been at an advantage having dictated the pace against the rail (Ballymore Castle behind and reopposes here on 6lb better terms, or 10lb if claims are taken into account). He didn't really build on it up 4lb on his latest start at Doncaster (when Ballymore Castle reversed the form on revised terms), though he wasn't disgraced in finishing 4th, and at the odds he's given another chance back at Newmarket (albeit on the other course). I was going to have a saver on Ballymore Castle given it would appear he's favoured by the weights here against Ice Lord, but at the odds I'd rather be with Shady McCoy, who disappointed on his latest start at York when done no favours by a wide draw, but his previous two runs at Ascot in the Victoria Cup (when just behind subsequent Royal Hunt Cup winner Zhui Feng) and then at Goodwood (strong finishing fourth after finding the race not panning out his way), make him look attractively handicapped. Neither selection would want a crawl given their usual run styles, but hopefully with both the market leaders usually ridden forward, this won't be run at a dawdle. |
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Summary of selections for Thursday
Ice Lord, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 4.25 Newmarket Shady McCoy, 1pt win at 15-2, 4.25 Newmarket Endless Gold, 1pt win @ 5-1, 5.00 Newmarket |
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Unlucky George 1.71 ir
July soon ....  gl |
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Eddie Freemantle said before the race he didn't think the horse was the most willing, and that was possibly how it looked, just carried his head a little awkwardly. Not that it made any difference as the winner was just too good, but he did pull clear of the rest.
Too true Virgin, roll on July...  |