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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
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got lucky, only had a saver at 14, then when I saw it had gone 34 on here, had a bit more
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Glorvina, 2pts win @ 10-3, 2.30 Ayr
Glorvina is now starting to look exposed and vulnerable to anything remotely progressive, and she faces an odds-on unexposed filly from a top Newmarket yard here, but she continues to leave the impression that a stiffer test may show her in a better light, so interesting to see if today's trip (10f) on softer ground helps. She did weaken at the trip two starts back at Nottingham, but didn't face an easy task trying to make all against some unexposed and likely progressive males, and last time 10f round Lingfield (AW) looked too sharp. The favourite could prove just far too good, while the other two runners can't be totally ruled out, but in a relatively uncompetitive affair, Glorvina gets the vote at the odds. Peking Flyer, 1pt win @ 12-1, 3.15 Brghton Peking Flyer went handicapping off a lowly mark of 52 having shown little in three AW qualifying runs, however, stepped up to 8.5f at Wolverhampton with a tongue tie applied, there seemed to be significant late market support ahead of his handicap debut, but backers never held out any hope in the race itself, as he was never in a good spot having been held up off a steady pace and he could make only minor late headway. Peking Flyer is now switched to turf, upped further in trip, with the tongue tie retained and Oisin Murphy taking over in the saddle, and interesting to see if the backers return. Band Of Outlaws, 2pts win @ 2-1, 5.50 Roscommon Band Of Outlaws shaped really well on his debut over 6f at Fairyhouse, getting no luck in the straight and leaving the impression he would have gone a lot closer with a clear run. He's up to 7f on heavy ground today, but hopefully being by Fast Company will help him cope with the ground better than most. The Jim Bolger-trained current favourite Vocal Music, also caught the eye on his debut and looks open to further improvement, while there are debutants from respected stables to worry about, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Band Of Outlaws go off favourite for this and he gets the vote at the current prices. Wilde Extravagance, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 9.10 Pontefract Wilde Extravagance very much caught the eye on his reappearance over 6f at Thirsk when getting no luck in the run and shaping plenty better than the bare result; the two runs since have been relatively poor but are possible to excuse on account of higher grade and then surface (Tapeta). He's now 2lb below the mark he won off over C/D last summer, so hopefully everything looks in place for a return to form. |
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A poor day with 7 pts lost.
I think I can safely remove Glorvina from the notebook. Peking Flyer, like Glorvina, is out of a Hawk Wing mare, so maybe caution should be advised, but he did show a bit, not looking comfortable on the track but keeping on well to snatch 5th. The jockey on Band Of Outlaws (finished 2nd) put up 2lb overweight and lost his irons, but not sure it made any difference against another Harrington jet propelled winner. Wilde Extravagance was subdued. June Running Total P/L : -21.35 Win stat: 3/42 (7%) Place stat: 10/42 (24%) Points staked so far: 59 Overall Running Total P/L : +47.65 Win stat: 21/190 (11%) Place stat: 54/190 (28%) Points staked so far: 306 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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Beware, I told you I'd culled a good few. I dropped The Secrets Out recently. Bolted up tonight, not the first big priced reject to do so lately
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nothing worse than being a bit premature
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The night The Secrets Out was mentioned on this thread they had to send a search party out for him
 Turns out middle distances was what he wanted all along It could just be Glorvina doesn't want soft / heavy ground and she'll fall in one day, maybe over 12f on a sounder surface. |
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More Tales of the Unexpected...
Camaradorie, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.15 Yarmouth The notebook run came on the AW back in January over 7f at Wolverhampton in what admittedly was a weak maiden auction for fillies, when sent off at 100-1, but Camaradorie caught the eye as a sizable sort who travelled well and was unlucky not to have gone closer having not had much luck in the run up the straight. She then went handicapping off a mark of 60 and she wasn't disgraced in what looked a competitive heat for the grade over 7f at Lingfield in February, finishing a close up 6th having made her challenge towards the perceived unfavoured inside rail. Camaradorie wasn't without market support when she returned from 3 months off over 6f at this track last month but finished well held, however, it's possible the drop in trip was against her and she raced away from where the main action unfolded. She steps up to a mile today, and interesting to note that she's a half-sister to The Resdev Way, who improved significantly for racing over middle distances on the AW, so although she is likely to be fine at the trip, she does need to prove her effectiveness on turf, but at a double figure price a chance is taken. Tuolumne Meadows, 1pt win @ 9-1, 6.50 Lingfield Tuolumne Meadows has shown more than enough on the AW to suggest she should be up to winning a race, having shaped really well on her 2YO debut over a mile at Kempton in October 2015, and last season been unfortunate to have run into a couple of useful sorts over 12f at that track. I thought she shaped OK on her return this season over 10f on firm ground at Bath, despite finishing last of the four runners, keeping on well and suggesting with that run behind her a step back up in trip would suit. However, when she was stepped up in trip to 13f at Chelmsford on her latest start she ran an absolute shocker, trailing in some 55l behind the winner. Connections now reach for blinkers and she has a bit to prove all of a sudden, but the handicapper has been quick to drop her 5lb (now 8lb below her initial mark) and she may be worth another chance at the odds, given that latest run looked too bad to be true; and it's worth noting that her full sister, the useful Tioga Pass, responded well to first time blinkers on the back of a disappointing effort. Laura Knight, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 8.20 Lingfield Sardenya, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.20 Lingfield Both these fillies look up against it to turn the form around with Elizabeth Bennet from their debut runs at Goodwood 17 days ago, but I did wonder if there was a draw bias at play on the straight course that day, as those who raced in the group close to the stands' rail seemed to be struggling a fair way out, and a similar scenario seemed to develop at a following Goodwood meeting in a 2YO race. Of course, it could just be the better horses were in the group that raced more centre, but even so, it did seem too much of a coincidence. Whatever, I didn't think either filly's run was without promise, Laura Knight showing good early pace against the stands' rail before running green and losing her position; while Sardenya was noticeably green and soon a few lengths detached before finishing off her race well once switched away from the stands' rail. Both fillies are entitled to come on for the experience and interesting to see if they can get closer to Elizabeth Bennet on this occasion. |
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Not great. Sardenya did get closer to Elizabeth Bennet, but not close enough. 2.8 pts lost on the day.
June Running Total P/L : -24.15 Win stat: 3/46 (6%) Place stat: 11/46 (24%) Points staked so far: 66 Overall Running Total P/L : +44.85 Win stat: 21/194 (11%) Place stat: 55/194 (28%) Points staked so far: 313 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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Taxmeifyoucan, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 2.00 Haydock
Taxmeifyoucan caught the eye in a competitive 3YO handicap at the Dante meeting, when moving into contention in the straight and looking a threat, only to be badly hampered against the stands' rail and immediately eased. His latest run when well held in a valauble Class 2 3YO handicap at Musselburgh when racing over 14f for the first time, is easily excused on account of the quick ground and being poorly positioned off what looked a steady pace. He wouldn't want the ground to dry out too much, but he remains of interest on that penultimate effort and being unexposed as a stayer. Paddy A, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 3.10 Yarmouth Paddy A has plenty of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree and he's off a little interest stepping up to 10f for the first time. He had caught the eye over a mile at Kempton, prior to getting off the mark over that trip at Chelmsford. He stuck to his task well on what was effectively his turf debut lto over a mile at Newmarket on soft ground, in a race run in not very pleasant conditions. He's off the same mark here, with David Egan taking 5lb off, and interesting to see if the step up in trip ekes out a little improvement, though the quicker surface is an unknown. |
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An EW double - a NR and a 3rd. 2.2pts profit on the day.
June Running Total P/L : -21.95 Win stat: 3/47 (6%) Place stat: 12/47 (25%) Points staked so far: 68 Overall Running Total P/L : +47.05 Win stat: 21/195 (11%) Place stat: 56/195 (29%) Points staked so far: 315 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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WD George
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Cheers Virgin, it's not much but I'm grateful for small mercies given recent form!
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Lopes Dancer, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 8.10 Haydock
Lopes Dancer returned from a ten month absence to easily win a steadily run maiden over 10f at Newcastle in March (runner-up Wefait subsequently won a maiden and is currently rated 74, the fourth Cray subsequently won a handicap off 70), a performance which impressed the handicapper enough to see his mark raised 4lb to 78. Lopes Dancer did not justify that rise in his rating when returned to handicap company over the same C/D when last seen two months ago, struggling from over 2f out and failing to make any impression. He returns to turf this evening and a couple of handicap runs from last season over a mile at Pontefract make him look feasibly treated, as when finishing second behind Sands Chorus (who's now rated a stone higher) on heavy ground, and a 3rd-place finish behind Auspicion (who also runs here) on good ground when he didn't get the clearest of runs and left the impression a step up in trip would suit. Lopes Dancer has a bit to prove after that latest Newcastle run and is returning from a break here (though he can evidently go well fresh), while this looks quite competitive, but that reappearance maiden win suggested there could be more to come from this still lightly raced sort, and he has handicap form from last season to suggest that his current mark of 77 may not be beyond him, particularly if 10f suits better. So he gets a speculative vote at a price. |
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8.10 Haydock BERLUSCA 33-1 e/w for me ....
Normally plays on a/w but does have a turf win in a similar contest to tonight 33-1 too big ... small stakes 'cause if the fun stops ... Gl George ... |
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* referring to his Chester 10f win
 same jock on as well .... |
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Unlucky on the place George
wasn't hard on yours ... beat myBerlusca in 6th |
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Unlucky Virgin.
When I saw his price I thought wtf with Lopes Dancer, but he ran better than the market suggested. The gap was there around a furlong out but he didn't have the gears to take it, and then when he was keeping on he ran out of room in the closing stages. Maybe 12f with some juice in the ground will suit best, provided he settles. |
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Faradays Spark, 1pt win @ 9-1, 2.50 York
Faraday's Spark has had three runs to date, the first two were over 5f at Ripon, which looked on the sharp side for him, though he caught the eye on the second of them when finishing off well for 4th in a race won by a filly who has since run well in a class 2 race at Newbury; his third run was over 5f at Hamilton (when ridden by Paul Hanagan), when the market vibes close to the off weren't good and he trailed in last of six, always outpaced. You could be forgiven imo for thinking he's a nursery project, but he's turning up in this valuable seller, in which his trainer Richard Fahey runs three and Paul Hanagan jumps ship to a stablemate, with Adam McNamara (3) taking over on this one. It could be this 6f will prove sharp enough for him, but interesting to see which way he goes in the betting. Koeman, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 7.40 Goodwood Koeman appeared to have improved for stepping up in trip, finishing a staying on 3rd when trying 10f for the first time at Salisbury three starts back, and particularly catching the eye two starts back when stepped up to 12.5f at Chester, finding trouble in the run as the eventual winner (who dictated the pace) kicked for home, before making up a deal of ground to close at the finish into second place. I selected him on the back of that when he ran at Brighton over 12f last week and he finished a disappointing and well held 4th. He has a bit to prove after that, but it's tempting to give him another chance, particularly as he's 3lb below the mark he ran off at Chester and now has David Egan's valuable 5lb claim to help. |
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Yes, Koeman will be interesting today given that the 2nd at Sals, Elas Ruby won a Listed race at Nby yesterday and K was only 1.5L behind her. Channon is a law unto himself though, reliability not his strong point.
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Saturday
Olivia Fallow, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.05 Musselburgh Meadway, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.05 Musselburgh Meadway and Olivia Fallow finished first and second respectively in this race last season and a bold show from both wouldn't surprise again, though their low draws is a slight concern. Olivia Fallow would appear the more obvious one on recent form, having run well on two of her four starts this season, and although she failed to land a blow in the Epsom 'Dash' last time, she'll be happier over this C/D, where she has finished second three times from four attempts, and can race off a pound lower mark than she ran off when second to Meadway last season. Meadway doesn't come here in much form, but he's following a similar pattern to last season when he had one down the field run on turf before coming here, and two years ago when he was just touched off in the race, it was his first start of that season, so no doubt this has been the plan. If he does come here in the same form as he has for the past two years then his mark is potentially a favourable one, being rated 3lb lower than the mark he won off last year. Line Of Reason, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 3.10 Musselburgh Line Of Reason comes here in fair form having looked a shade unlucky in a competitive York handicap two starts back when not getting a clear run inside the final furlong, and last time in the Epsom 'Dash' not disgraced to be beaten just over 2l. The handicapper is giving him a chance having dropped him another 2lb to a mark of 95, given last summer he was running well in competitive handicaps off marks in the hundreds, and would have finished a lot closer in Group 2 at Glorious Goodwood had he got the breaks against the far rail. |
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Meadway looks a very strong bet at the prices. Gl George.
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Good luck mackies. I said about the draw, but of course he did overcome a low one last year. I did wonder about the jockey bookings though cuz Connor Beasley has jumped ship year.
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Just to correct an error (yes another one
) in me little write up, Olivia Fallow is off the same mark (85)as last year. Her OR is showing as 84 on the RP site when you bring her lifetime form up, but obviously was on 85 when the weights for this were published. |
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And obviously I've made the same mistake with Line Of Reason
  I won't be falling for that one again! And I wascjust thinking how convenient it is that the updated ratings for horses now appear on the RP site. Not that it affects their selection on this thread, cuz are both are essentially plays at the prices. Thank and you goodnight. I resign! |
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B
 M George |
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Cheers KC, it was needed after not being in the best of form this month.
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wd
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We'd George
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Knew I'd seen this somewhere. WD George
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Onwards and Upwards. Well done.
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Cheers all.
A tiny profit yesterday with Koeman holding on for a place, and 18.5 pts up today. June Running Total P/L : -4.25 Win stat: 4/53 (7%) Place stat: 14/53 (26%) Points staked so far: 79 Overall Running Total P/L : +64.75 Win stat: 22/201 (11%) Place stat: 58/201 (29%) Points staked so far: 326 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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Halinka, 1pt win @ 5-1, 5.15 Salisbury
This is a hands and heels race and prhaps not everyone's cup of tea! Halinka might have been a shade unfortunate not to have won a 7f handicap at Wolverhampton last November on her final start of 2016, and she caught my eye on her reappearance at Catterick in a 7f classified, not standing a chance given how the pace held up, but keeping on well down the outer having been held up from a wide draw. She steps up to a mile here and given how she has been staying on over 7f hopefully the trip won't be an issue. |
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Just to correct an error in me little write up (yes another one
), it was actually a 0-65 maiden Halinka ran in at Catterick, rather than a classified stakes, though not much difference one could argue! |
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Well done with L.O.R George.
Brave decision to stick with him - serial eyecatcher that one! |
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Ta mackies, fair to say everything fell into place for him yesterday.
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I've backed Halinka on here George GL.
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good luck saddo
proving easy enough to back |
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He shudda used his whip
1.06 IR |
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Very nearly George
 Covered my stake in the 4TBP market though  |
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Unlucky George
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