There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1263 comments are related to the topic:
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,263
|
By:
well done george.
2 good runs,1 nice winner so far. |
|
By:
well done george
|
|
By:
Cheers, it was needed as still a bit of ground to make up this month. The first one traded odds-on but didn't see it out. The less said about the other two the better.
|
|
By:
June Running Total
P/L : -17 Win stat: 1/20 (5%) Place stat: 3/20 (15%) Points staked so far: 28 Overall Running Total P/L : +52 Win stat: 19/168 (11%) Place stat: 47/168 (28%) Points staked so far: 273 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
WD George
 |
|
By:
WD George
|
|
By:
Ta PHS and Virgin.
Tavener, 1pt win @ 10-1, 4.20 Wolverhampton Joey's Destiny, 1pt win @ 11-1, 4.20 Wolverhampton There's a temptation to think the handicapper might caught up with Tavener, being 7lb above his last turf win and 10lb above his last AW win, but his run at Ayr the other night could suggest he may not be done winning yet if his energy can be utilised more economically. He very much shaped as though he was still in good form at Ayr, doing too much on the front end in a race that was run in a fast time and won by a potentially useful 3YO, and although he faded to finish fifth inside the final furlong, that was no disgrace given his early exertions. Of course it's possible the same scenario may occur again, or this may come soon enough, but with 7lb claimer Finlay Marsh taking over again in the saddle (rode the horse to finish 2nd three starts back at Chelmsford behind a filly who had fallen in the weights), a chance is taken for the minimum stake at a double figure price. It was hardly encouraging that Joey's Destiny was turned over at a short price in a Catterick claimer when last seen in April, after which he was claimed by Antony Brittain, but he remains of interest having had relatively few attempts on the AW or at 7f. He runs during the winter at Lingfield, Kempton and Wolverhampton when not beaten far in class 3 handicaps won by the likes of Intransigent and Nimr, make him look well handicapped off a lower mark and in a lower grade back on the AW, and although a bit has to be taken on trust after that Catterick disappointment, interesting to see if he can revive for his new yard. Plymouth Sound, 1pt win @ 8-1, 8.25 Kempton I not sure Plymouth Sound is the easiest, and he hasn't won since his debut back in 2014, but he is off a little interest back on the AW, a surface on which he hasn't had many chances. He is related to Polytrack winners, and he shaped quite well on two of four runs at Kempton last season, on his AW debut when trying to close off a steady pace, then on his second run at the track when left with a bit to do before running on well for 3rd. His third and fourth runs at the track were disappointing, but it is possible to excuse them on account of steady pace / class of race being against him. He has prove his stamina for two miles, and this likely to be a test at the trip with Denmead in the field, but he looks worth a go at it and he arrives here in fair form, having kept on well over 14f at Salisbury on his latest start in a race won by one who had the run of things from the front and was ridden by a talented 7lb claimer. |
|
By:
Envoy, 1pt win @ 8-1, 7.00 Sandown
Glorious Forever, 1pt win @ 12-1, 7.00 Sandown I'm not surprised to see the support for Pivoine after he caught the eye over a seemingly inadequate 7f at Newbury on his reappearance, but at bigger odds a chance is taken on Envoy who impressed when winning on his return at Nottingham. This scopey sort had been gelded ahead of his reappearance, and he wasn't without market support; prominent and racing keenly without cover, he disputed the lead into the straight and looked set to be swamped when challenged on both sides from 2.5f out, but he found plenty to forge clear inside the final furlong and leave the impression there could be more to come. The three who followed him home had all shown ability on their debuts (though the runner-up has since disappointed on his third start). Glorious Forever is easily forgiven his latest start on ground that might have been soft enough for him at Newbury (though he did shape well up to a point), but previously he'd run very well when finishing runner-up at Doncaster, especially considering he didn't have the most efficient trip compared to the winner and third who were held up, having been caught wide and disputed the lead soon enough. Unlike Envoy, he could probably do with the ground drying out. |
|
By:
Other selections for Thursday
Legato, 1pt win @ 12-1, 2.10 Haydock Imagine If, 1pt win @ 9-1, 6.20 Leopardstown |
|
By:
Legato caught my eye on his reappearance in a Nottingham maiden, as a sizeable sort who still looked quite green, and after not getting a clear run was noted hitting the line well. I selected him on the back of that in a Beverley maiden (on what was his third run for a mark), and he again shaped OK, not able to land a blow but keeping on in a manner that could suggest longer trips will suit. His latest run came in a Chester maiden when he was up against it on the figures, and although he was never well positioned and did't get the clearest of runs, he did keep on.
I suspect there's going to be better to come from Legato at some point, the big question mark today is the ground, but a chance is taken at a double figure price. Imagine If shaped really well on his reappearance in a competitive 6f Navan handicap against his elders, when 6lb out of the handicap, keeping on well to finish 4th and be nearest at the finish. He was sent off favourite on the back of that for a 5f Cork handicap, again against his elders, but this time he finished unplaced, though perhaps the drop back in trip was against him. His latest run came 6f conditions race at Fairyhouse against his own age group, and although on the face of it finishing only 4th of 6 was a shade disappointing, he didn't get the clearest runs and shaped as though a step up to 7f would be worth a try. As he was at Fairyhouse, he's the second string on jockey bookings this evening, but the ground will be in his favour and interesting to see if the step up to 7f suits. |
|
By:
Summary of selections for Thursday
Legato, 1pt win @ 12-1, 2.10 Haydock Imagine If, 1pt win @ 9-1, 6.20 Leopardstown Envoy, 1pt win @ 8-1, 7.00 Sandown Glorious Forever, 1pt win @ 12-1, 7.00 Sandown |
|
By:
I've decided to have one more selection today, having had one catch my eye at a price.
Candelisa, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.30 Ripon Candelisa ran very well to be third in the Lincoln consolation race on his reappearance, albeit he was probably on the favoured part of the track. He didn't back that up on his latest start in a similarly competitive handicap at Newbury on Lockinge day, trailing in 13th of the 15 runners and beaten 27 lengths. However, I note he raced in the centre of the track that day and I was of the opinion that was not the place to be, as it did seem the flanks were favoured (possibly as a result of the centre having been cut up from racing the day before on soft ground), with the first four home in that race ending up racing closest to either rail. Even in the Lockinge itself, although Ribchester was the best whatever, it did seem once he got to the stands' rail, he took lengths out of the field. Candelisa still has a bit to prove as he was well beaten by others who raced in the centre, but I just wonder if that run is worth forgiving. |
|
By:
unlucky with first one george, would it not pay doing 1/2 point each way on the bigger prices as seen a few placed?
|
|
By:
Think the staking plan is fine at the moment, craigie, just could do with 1 or 2 of them winning!
It looks like Legato stays well, just not very quickly. Maybe a trip on better ground will help. |
|
By:
At this rate, sticking a pin in may be a better option
 June Running Total P/L : -26 Win stat: 1/28 (3%) Place stat: 5/28 (18%) Points staked so far: 37 Overall Running Total P/L : +43 Win stat: 19/176 (11%) Place stat: 49/176 (28%) Points staked so far: 282 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
Friday's selections
Injam, 2pts win @ 4-1, 4.10 Carlisle Koeman, 2pts win @ 4-1, 4.20 Brighton Tuff Rock, 2pts win @ 8-1, 7.05 Goodwood Nathania, 2pts win @ 6-1, 8.15 Goodwood Iconic Belle, 1pt win @ 16-1, 8.15 Goodwood |
|
By:
pulled tuff rock out tonight because of the ground
 good luck tomorrow |
|
By:
George Nice price on Tuff Rock good chance on return run gl ....
|
|
By:
Cheers kiw & Virgin.
I thought there was a lot to like about his run at Newbury, the way he travelled in the lead until he got tired on the ground. The stablemate who ran on from the rear has since come out and run well at Chepstow. Positive jockey booking too. |
|
By:
Saturday
Amazing Red, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 3.40 Newmarket Byron Flyer, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 3.40 Newmarket Amazing Red is a half-brother to Red Cadeaux, who impressed when overcoming trouble in running on the home bend to run out an authorative winner of a Pontefract maiden last season (form worked out OK); presumably there must have been an issue as he wasn't seen again for a year when he reappeared in a Wolverhampton handicap and could only muster a one paced third of six, having been sent off at 6-4. His latest run and return to turf, which came in a competitive class 3 Hamilton handicap (from which the runner-up and third have won since), was much more encouraging, moving well into contention but not getting the clearest of runs up the rail at a crucial stage before keeping on well, too late to reach the principals. He's up in grade here, but the step up in trip to 14f promises to suit and he has the services of leading 5lb claimer David Egan, so is selected in the hope he can belatedly fulfil the potential he showed last season. Byron Flyer is a straightforward one to explain, he just didn't get the breaks round Chester on his latest run when looking like he had plenty left in the tank; he had previously run well in a Grade 3 handicap hurdle over hurdles at Aintree, and he's unexposed on turf on the Flat. |
|
By:
Tuff Rock
wd George great price |
|
By:
Cheers Virgin. That was desperate, thought the filly had got back up and done him
 |
|
By:
A much needed 9 pts profit on the day.
June Running Total P/L : -17 Win stat: 2/33 (6%) Place stat: 7/33 (21%) Points staked so far: 46 Overall Running Total P/L : +52 Win stat: 20/181 (11%) Place stat: 51/181 (28%) Points staked so far: 291 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
WD George, close finish indeed. 11/4
 |
|
By:
Cheers saddo. I presume given he doesn't seem to do anything quickly and how he was ridden at Newbury, the orders would have been to lead, but he missed the break, however, Crowley thankfully didn't rush the horse up (as some 'dopes' might have) and gave the horse a chance to find its stride. I got lucky on the nod, could so easily have been another -9 going on the total
 But if I got lucky there, I can't say how disappointed I was with the ride on Nathania, who was dropping back in trip. Imo it demonstrated a lack of understanding of what these Nathaniels are all about. |
|
By:
Straight Ash, 2pts win @ 3-1, 6.10 Chepstow
I noted Straight Ash when he made his debut at Leicester in early April, running green and losing his position before going on well at the finish as the penny dropped. I selected him on the back of that when he next ran at Windsor in what was probably a stronger race, won by an expensive Godolphin breeze-up colt, and although he was no match for the principals, he wasn't disgraced in 4th, particularly as he still looked green. He has to prove himself on the ground this evening, but this does look a bit easier and I think a stiffer test at the trip will help, as will Hollie Doyle's 3lb claim in the conditions. I thought this evening's favourite Frostbite shaped well at Goodwood on his debut, particularly as racing against the stands' rail might not have been an advantage, but at the prices Straight Ash gets the vote. |
|
By:
Summary of selections for Saturday
Amazing Red, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 3.40 Newmarket Byron Flyer, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 3.40 Newmarket Straight Ash, 2pts win @ 3-1, 6.10 Chepstow |
|
By:
Byron Flyer wd place
 hd away from winner George gl .... |
|
By:
WD George
|
|
By:
Cheers Virgin and PHS.
I wonder if they had this race in mind since Leicester  That was absolutely smashed in the betting.10p R4 |
|
By:
Byron just needed another stride and he would have got there, I must have used up all me photo finish luck last night
|
|
By:
4.65 pts profit on the day
June Running Total P/L : -12.35 Win stat: 3/36 (8%) Place stat: 9/36 (25%) Points staked so far: 52 Overall Running Total P/L : +56.65 Win stat: 21/184 (11%) Place stat: 53/184 (29%) Points staked so far: 297 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
Paris Rooftops, 1pt win @ 7-2, 2.00 Goodwood
Paris Rooftops caught my eye on her debut in a maiden over C/D 17 days ago when perhaps not best positioned given how the race panned out, running green before hitting the line well as the penny dropped; that debut run leaves her with a bit to find on RPRs with a few of these, but surprising if there isn't better to come from this expensively bought half-sister to Dewhurst winner Intense Focus, with that experience behind her. Bee Machine, 1pt win @ 7-1, 1.50 Nottingham Bee Machine made his debut in a division of the Brocklesby, and although he wasn't anyhwhere near as strong in the betting as his stablemate Santry, who won the other division and has won since at York, this relative expensive 50,000 guineas purchase wasn't totally unfancied at 8-1, and he did shape with some promise despite his finishing position suggesting otherwise, having showed good speed and raced keenly on perhaps what wasn't the favoured part of the track before weakening as fitness became an issue. As one might expect given his price tag, he does look to have a bit about him physically and hopefully in the two months since he was last seen he has strengthened and developed. He's proving easy enough to back this morning, which is a tad worrying given they've got a useful one to compare him with, but he's given the vote for the minimum stake, with improvement from that debut effort anticipated. |
|
By:
Had already backed Bee Machine Goerge @ 11, happy to see you've endorsed it. Had a saver on stablemate too. Stevie Donohoe seems to be a go to jock for triers imo.
|
|
By:
But W G Grace and Cent Flying (which is a shortener) were both taken out of a chepstow race last night, today's ground is similar so hopefully they stand their ground or the dreaded R4 comes into play.
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
Poor from both, Rob. Bee Machine offered nothing and the race was won by the stablemate at twice the price
Paris Rooftops had her chance, having been ridden more prominently this time, but was readily held. June Running Total P/L : -14.35 Win stat: 3/38 (8%) Place stat: 9/38 (24%) Points staked so far: 52 Overall Running Total P/L : +54.65 Win stat: 21/186 (11%) Place stat: 53/186 (28%) Points staked so far: 299 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
Yeah, but I did back stablemate too.
|
|
By:
Well done Rob.
|
|
By:
WD REDROB
|