There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1263 comments are related to the topic:
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,263
|
By:
No surprise to Prosecution shorten in the betting following his eye catching run at Leicester last time out, but at double-figure prices a couple are selected EW in the same race.
Broad Appeal, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 8.45 Windsor Red Emperor, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.45 Windsor I selected Broad Appeal when he ran last time at Nottingham when I wrote: I thought Broad Appeal definitely shaped better than his finishing position suggested on his turf debut over a mile at Windsor, leading and racing a bit keenly, doing himself no favours by hanging left on the bend, but he was the only one to challenge the well handicapped Sir Plato with the pair clear at one point, and he was still in second place inside the final furlong, but his exertions told and he faded to finish 7th. Broad Appeal disappointed at Nottingham, but it's possible the easy ground was against him. He 's trying 10f for the first time here and has stamina to prove, but there is hope in his pedigree being a half-brother to a 12f winner. Red Emperor was noted on his second start, over a mile (g/f) at this track, shaping nicely and leaving the impression a longer trip could suit. He has since had a third run for a mark over 7f on soft ground at Newbury, and now steps up to 10f on handicap debut off a mark of 65. |
|
By:
Royal Ascot, Day One
Mutakayyef, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 2.30 Ascot Mutakayyef makes a little EW appeal at the prices in the Queen Anne Stakes. He brings one of the strongest pieces of form into this on his third in last year's Juddmonte Stakes at York behind Postponed and Highland Reel, when he would have gone even closer to winning but for meeting with inteference over two furlongs out, and then again inside the final furlong as the winner edged to his right. This is over two furlongs less, but he showed this course and distance on quick ground is no problem for him when winning the Group 2 Summer Stakes comfortably last July prior to his run in the Juddmonte. He wasn't able to beat Tepin at Woodbine last September when a slow start didn't help, and he wasn't at his best at Meydan earlier this year, but presumably this has been the target since and hopefully he will arrive here in top form. |
|
By:
Thanks George, one I'll be on too (make of that what you will
 ) |
|
By:
Good luck to us both, Lee.
The question is whether he's going to be in the same form that he was last summer, so that's the bit we're taking on trust. |
|
By:
Another error to report
 Mutakayyef's win over a mile here last season was on the round course, so he's not a course and distance winner, so let's just say he has gone well at the track  Poor show from this evening's two picks at Windsor, Red Emperor was shocking, while Broad Appeal ran alright but didn't convince he stayed. The times for the longer races looked on the slow side, presumably they'd done a "good job with the watering". June Running Total P/L : -9.25 Win stat: 4/56 (7%) Place stat: 15/56 (27%) Points staked so far: 84 Overall Running Total P/L : +59.75 Win stat: 22/204 (11%) Place stat: 59/204 (29%) Points staked so far: 331 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
Under Attack, 1pt win @ 13-2, 4.35 Thirsk
Under Attack didn't do himself any favours on his latest start (Lingfield, 11.5f) by getting himself in a bit of a state in the stalls, and it didn't go well in the race either, held up in a race where it wasn't easy to make up ground from off the pace and not getting the clearest of runs down the straight; that was his first start at around 12f and he wasn't without support in the betting. He has since left Roger Charlton to join Ruth Carr, but owner-breeder Philip Newton retains ownership, and being unexposed at the trip (dam a 2m winner), he looks an interesting recruit for his new yard; a slight concern is whether he wants it on the quick side. |
|
By:
* 10p R4, Tamayuz Magic has just come out
|
|
By:
Fast Dancer, 1pt win @ 4-1, 6.40 Chester
Fast Dancer looked unfortunate not to have gone closer in a competitive 7f handicap round Chester two starts back, dropped in from a wide draw and then getting little luck in the straight when looking like he had plenty in the tank; he failed to land a blow on his latest start back there, but it's quite possible the step up to 10.5f was too far for him. He's eventually come back down to the mark he won off two seasons ago, while a first-time visor could be a positive given both his previous wins came when wearing headgear (cheekpieces). The main concern is whether a four-runner affair round here will play to his strengths, but at the prices he gets the vote. |
|
By:
* 6.40 Brighton
|
|
By:
Summary of Selections for Tuesday
Mutakayyef, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 2.30 Ascot Under Attack, 1pt win @ 13-2, 4.35 Thirsk (10p R4) Fast Dancer, 1pt win @ 4-1, 6.40 Brighton |
|
By:
Gl George.
Three at fancy prices for me today - Alpha Delphini ( think the visor has been saved for today) Le Laitier Cookie Ring If they all win I'll be buying that island I've been dreaming of!  |
|
By:
Good luck mackies
|
|
By:
Royal Ascot, Wednesday
My pin has fallen on two drawn low in big fields on the straight course, so I'm hoping their chances aren't scuppered by the draw! Elleval, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 5.00 Ascot (5 PLACES) Elleval has been a bit disappointing on his last two runs, but a couple of his efforts this year have suggested he still retains plenty of ability, as when finishing runner-up in a Meydan handicap to Folkswood (who subsequently finished 2nd in a Group 1 at the Dubai Carnival), and at Dundalk when a close up third behind Elbereth (who has since run well behind Somehow and Highland Reel in Group 2 and 1 company respectively). He was rated 112 at his peak in 2014 after winning a Meydan handicap off 107, and it's interesting to note that some of his peak efforts have come in bigger fields when perhaps having a decent pace to run at has suited his usual hold-up style. He's running off a mark of 100 here, with Oisin Orr taking 5lb off. A bit of a leap of faith is needed given he was beaten in a Cork handicap just two starts back, but interesting to see if a big field, (hopefully) cavalry charge, results in an effort more on a par to the one he produced behind Folkswood earlier this year. Gymnaste, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 5.35 Ascot Gymaste was quite an eyecatcher on her latest start under a big weight over 7f in an open and competitive handicap at Kempton, travelling strongly throughout but denied a clear run at a crucial stage as the winner swooped down the outer, before running on well for second place once in the clear. Gymnaste is up markedly in grade here and has to race from 1lb out of the handicap, but she's totally unexposed after just three starts, and it's likely she would have gone up more than 2lb for that Kempton effort had she got a clear run through. She does have an appealing pedigree for the AW, so there is a suspicion she'll prove better on synthetics, but that said she did get a decent RPR when winning her maiden at Chester. |
|
By:
1.6 pts lost on the day.
Fast Dancer ran an odd race in the first time visor, looking like he wasn't on a going day, but then finishing off strongly and looking likely to win (traded very short) only to have the eventual winner squeeze him up, check his momentum and essentially cost him the race. It could have been deemed accidental, just a tiring horse edging left down the camber, but once the stewards deemed that David Probert was at fault (they banned him for 3 days), surely disqualification should have been a formality, imo. The promotion of poor jockeyship continues by the racing authorities, essentially saying: yes you can cause interference, but so long as you win by more than a couple of pixels you are virtually certain to keep the race, albeit you will get a short holiday. Imo, if a jockey is found to be at fault because he hasn't done enough to correct his horse / careless riding, then disqualification should be a formality, otherwise in my view they are promoting unsafe racing. Rant over. June Running Total P/L : -10.85 Win stat: 4/59 (7%) Place stat: 16/59 (27%) Points staked so far: 88 Overall Running Total P/L : +58.15 Win stat: 22/207 (11%) Place stat: 60/207 (29%) Points staked so far: 335 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
Strange race George. Watch the race from behind and Winston dropped his whip over a furlong out, and then nearly fell off and lost his balance in last 150 yards. Given the wide bias, if the jockey had come wide, he would have won imo.
|
|
By:
Just had another look back at it, equine, and I can see why they banned Probert, his mount was edging left down the camber and he's continued to use the whip in his right hand before eventually switching it.
The scout angle showed the gap at the point Winston aimed for it was big enough, and the head-on showed his momentum being checked as he was being squeezed, while the horse on the rail was lucky to escape injury. I take your point about coming wide, but not sure the horse was helping him or was lugging a bit on the camber, and with time running out, I think it was easier to go down the camber rather than yank the horse the other way which would have required more physical effort from Winston. |
|
By:
Consequences, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.30 Ascot
On the face of it, Consequences looks up against it to reverse York form with Santry given he was in receipt of 6lb that day, but the market support suggested he'd been showing up well in his home work and his debut was full of promise, travelling well and quickening to lead 2f out before finding the more experienced winner too strong on the ground. Consequences has since easily won at long odds-on under quicker conditions at Catterick, and at the prices he gets an EW vote in the hope that with race expereince behind him and the ground conditions an unknown for his York conqueror, he can at least make more of a race of it with Santry this time. Senator, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 5.00 Ascot Senator was unbeaten in his first two starts as a juvenile under quick conditions, before contesting a Listed race at the St Leger meeting on his final start as a 2YO, when his final finishing position didn't tell the full story given he was denied a clear run against the stands' rail and wasn't persevered with after. He reappeared in a competitive York handicap over 7f at the Dante meeting and shaped quite well from an outside draw, racing wide and without cover, then hanging a little in the straight, but not knocked about and doing well to finish fifth. He steps up to a mile here, but the way he has shaped in his races and dam's side of the pedigree, suggest it shouldn't be an issue; though obviously the draw could be based on Wedenesday's evidence. Mister Manduro, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.35 Ascot Strong form on his reappearance in a class 2 Bath handicap when finishing just ahead of his stablemates Sofia's Rock (improved since and now reopposes on 10lb worse terms) and Permian (subsequent Dante winner); something presumably amiss on his next start at Newmarket when running poorly, but shaped much more encouragingly on his latest start in a valuable Musselburgh handicap over 14f, when probably not suited by the steady fractions but staying on well to be nearest at the finish. A strongly run race over 12f promises to suit, and SDS rides for the first time. |
|
By:
GEORGE.B
20 Jun 17 17:10 Royal Ascot, Wednesday My pin has fallen on two drawn low in big fields on the straight course, so I'm hoping their chances aren't scuppered by the draw! |
|
By:
Sabador, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.00 Ascot
Just in case a low draw turns out to be pants again and scuppers whatever chance Senator may have, I'm going to take a chance on Sabador too in the Britannia from stall 30 (though if they start crowding against the stands' rail then luck in running potentially becomes more of an issue for those drawn high ).I selected him on this thread when he won well at Ayr last time when he appreciated the strong pace to win readily in a fast time, having been dropped back in trip to 7f. He'd impressed when winning over a mile at Kempton in March, and I think when he got beat at Leicester on his turf debut, that small field tactical affair didn't play to his strengths and in the circumstances he probably did well to get as close to the winner as he did. The step back up to a mile shouldn't pose a problem (apparently it took his rider 6f to pull him up after he'd won at Kempton), and provided there's a pace on to help this keen-goer settle, hopefully this unexposed sort can still be competitive of his revised mark. |
|
By:
Summary of selections for Thursday
Consequences, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.30 Ascot Senator, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 5.00 Ascot Sabador, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.00 Ascot Mister Manduro, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.35 Ascot |
|
By:
GL George, very few runners there for me this week. I've just backed Medahim in the 5.00. Gone up for not winning since noted, and I've never heard of the rider, but 40 ish looks alright for an interest.
|
|
By:
Good luck with Medahim, saddo. Think that was the one Willo got all excited about after it had recorded a 'sensational' speed figure on its debut at Kempton. Draw looks good too.
|
|
By:
Senator was 6th, I think 1 or 2 firms were going 6 places, but it will count as a loser for purposes of the threads's p + l
 |
|
By:
Senator was stepping up in trip and although I was confident he would stay, I wasn't expecting him to be on 'pacemaking' duties. But fair play to Hanagan, he did a lovely job in setting the race up for the pair that sat at the back of the far side group
|
|
By:
Just seen that my last pick doesn't run, they must be saving him for tomorrow.
|
|
By:
Royal Ascot, Friday
Starlight Mystery, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 2.30 Ascot Salouen, 1pt win @ 9-1, 3.05 Ascot Mister Manduro, 1pt win @ 16-1, 5.00 Ascot Secret Advisor, 1pt win @ 14-1, 5.00 Ascot |
|
By:
June Running Total
P/L : -20.85 Win stat: 4/64 (6%) Place stat: 16/64 (25%) Points staked so far: 98 Overall Running Total P/L : +48.15 Win stat: 22/212 (10%) Place stat: 60/212 (28%) Points staked so far: 345 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
Starlight Mystery, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 2.30 Ascot
Starlight Mystery makes a little EW appeal at a huge price; she was having her first start at 6f (soft) when contesting a class 2 conditions race at Newbury against males, when she might have gone even closer but for having to switch inside the final furlong onto what was possibly slower ground on a day when the centre of the track might not have been the best place to be. The form could be working out better, though the winner Denaar wasn't disgraced in the Coventry given he tried to make all and likely did too much on the front end given how the race panned out and the fact the 2YO course record was broken. Salouen, 1pt win @ 9-1, 3.05 Ascot Salouen was my speculative pick at big odds for the Derby on this thread, though 'speculative' may not have been the most appropriate word to use given Group 1 form was in short supply going into the race and he had at least been placed in a couple of Group 1s, plus pedigree and run style suggested the step up to 12f could suit. The race made for painful viewing as he met with significant interference down the straight, being lucky not to be brought down when clipping heels / stumbling, and then finding his path blocked as he tried to make headway again. On reflection, I think he would have pressed for a place. Hopefully the Derby hasn't let its mark physically or mentally on him, and with better luck in the run it will be interesting to see what he can do at 12f. Mister Manduro, 1pt win @ 16-1, 5.00 Ascot Secret Advisor, 1pt win @ 14-1, 5.00 Ascot I selected Mister Manduro (for the reasons given above) for the King George V Handicap on Thursday, but he was pulled out because of the going  . Maybe connections think 14f will suit better, if the ground is more suitable on Friday!It was disappointing Secret Advisor got beaten at Goodwood last time when he was officially 7lb well in, but riding him more forward probably backfired as the way the race panned out it suited those held up (winner and third were both well off the pace early), so in the circumstances he probably did well to pull clear with the unexposed winner Eynhallow, and although the victor has been beaten since, that was in a Goodwood handicap where the pace of the race didn't favour his hold up style. Secret Advisor has to prove his stamina for 14f, but he's related to useful 12f winners and the way he has shaped in his races offer hope for the extra distance; he does have a bit to find on the ratings, but after just three starts he still looks open to improvement. |
|
By:
Nearly 15 pts down on the Ascot races this week, fair to say I've had better Royal meetings!
Saturday Edward Lewis, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.00 Ascot (5 places) Edward Lewis was an obvious eyecatcher in the 'Dash' at Epsom, travelling as well as anything but having to wait for a clear run and it wasn't until inside the final furlong that he saw daylight before finishing off strongly to just miss a place. He's going from an easy 5f to a stiff 6f here, but his previous form (albeit at a lower level) for John Gosden would suggest he's fine at 6f; he's lightly raced for a sprinter and that Epsom run suggested there may be more to come for his current yard. |
|
By:
Across The Stars, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 3.40 Ascot
I wonder if his reappearance run at Newbury may be worth overlooking on account of the soft ground and that he might have needed it; he was generally progressive as a 3YO, save seemingly not handling the track in the Derby, having looked unlucky in the Lingfield Derby Trial, and then winning the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot. He was behind Idaho in the Great Voltiguer at the Ebor meeting, but he was carrying a 3lb penalty and his jockey wasn't hard on him once held by the first two. He's seemingly the trainer's second string, but Olivier Peslier is an encouraging booking, and no doubt this has been the horse's target given he was successful at the meeting last year. A slight concern is the very quick ground, but a chance is taken at the odds. |
|
By:
A poor week with around 19 pts lost at Ascot. Think I'll stick with the 'away' meetings next year
June Running Total P/L : -29.85 Win stat: 4/70 (6%) Place stat: 17/70 (24%) Points staked so far: 107 Overall Running Total P/L : +39.15 Win stat: 22/218 (10%) Place stat: 61/218 (28%) Points staked so far: 354 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
theres definitely a bit of Partridge about you george
|
|
By:
3 williams runners look interesting tomorrow,bobcat billy fits the profile of the usual stable big price winner with o brien up.
hopefully a back of the net job george |
|
By:
Sunday's speculative pick:
Saved By The Bell, 1pt win @ 14-1, 4.00 Pontefract Saved By The Bell is potentially well handicapped based on what he was doing two seasons ago, such as finishing second in a two mile York handicap when trying to concede 8lb to Heartbreak City. There were a couple of OK efforts last season off higher marks, but three disappointing runs this season have seen his mark fall to 79, having been rated in the 90s this time last season. However, it is possible to find excuses for his runs this year, the first one might have been needed and the other two have come on ground softer than is ideal for him. It still takes a leap of faith to support him, but his reduced mark, the return to quicker conditions, a first time visor, and this first crack at a more extreme test of stamina, could all bring about an improved showing. |
|
By:
Good luck chav, I see he's got Teak in that Ponte race, who must have a squeak even if he is out of the weights.
|
|
By:
have that one in a patent with 2 MJs at ponte.-looked at out do today and swerved it
gl tomorrow george |
|
By:
Having picked Edward Lewis in that, I did wonder about the jockey arrangements for the O'Meara horses, but as Josh Doyle had ridden it in all its starts so far for O'Meara, didn't think it was significant that Tudhope was on Out Do, but thar ya go
And of course mine had to finish 6th, just like Senator had, and if only I'd stipulated the 6th place as at least one bookie was offering, the week ain't as bad |
|
By:
Which spookily enough is the third time it's happened, as I didn't stipulate the extra place when Bossy Guest was 5th at 40-1 earlier in the season.
That's a lot of points missed out on |
|
By:
if only you could get away with the jumpers for goalposts like last year george
|
|
By:
Well if ya picking at 33s and 40s in these big handicaps and the extra places are on offer, you may as well claim them!
But I didn't in those 3 cases, so it's -6 rather than +19.25 |