Unlucky??? a rule 4.... two of its rivals ruin their chance by not settling.... a fast run mile on a stiff track, but a strong run 10f will be perfect.... a big handicap will happen for this fellow under the right conditions.... a change of gear is important which he hasn`t got so he needs a strong gallop made by others over a mile or 10f..... NEXT

June Running Total
P/L : -44.85

Win stat: 4/81 (5%)
Place stat: 18/81 (22%)

Points staked so far: 122

Overall Running Total
P/L : +24.15

Win stat: 22/230 (9%)
Place stat: 62/230 (27%)

Points staked so far: 369
Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L)

A couple of longshots against the field in Northumberland Plate

Sam Missile, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.30 Newcastle (5 places, 1/5th odds)

Potential negatives to the chance of Sam Missile aren't difficult to spot, being drawn wide and having to prove his stamina for a stretch two miles, but he is of interest back on a synthetic surface, albeit he has to prove he's as effective on Tapeta as he is on Polytrack.

The evidence to date would suggest that he is a better horse on a synthetic surface than he is on turf, and he could yet prove better than his current AW mark, given he shaped better than the bare result when last seen on the AW at Kempton in November in the valuable London Middle Distance Final, as he was caught three wide for a while and his jockey was forced to take back, before not getting much luck up the straight and in the circumstances probably doing well to get as close as he did in finishing 4th; that was a decent race, the winner Sixties Grove has been a big eyecatcher in competitive handicaps at the Derby meeting and Royal Ascot this season, the runner-up Rock Steady won a class 2 handicap on his next start and is now rated 12lb higher, the 3rd I am Not Here won his next start and is now rated 10lb higher, while the 5th Sennockian Star ended the AW season rated 12lb higher, which all makes Sam Missile look potentially well handicapped.

His stable would appear to have a stronger chance with Higher Power, and Sam Missile is going to need a lot to go his way if dropped in from a wide draw, but at 33-1 a chance is taken on this 4YO who remains unexposed on the AW after just four starts.


Champagne Champ, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.30 Newcastle (5 places, 1/5th odds)

One who should have his chance up the straight, provided Paul Hanagan can get him out of the stalls on terms and he's ridden in his usual forward style, is Champagne Champ. He looks up against it with Flymetothestars on their meeting over C/D in May when he was readily left behind, but an 11lb pull will help, he has a low draw to work from, he hasn't had many chances on the AW, and the application of cheekpieces could be a positive given he does carry his head high (though could be just the way he's made as he seems genuine enough).

He stays well but does lack a gear change at the business end, and it wouldn't be much use to him if Hanagan is sitting pretty in the straight off steady fractions as he's likely to be done for toe, so hopefully this will be a proper test and if so Champagne Champ can at least challenge for a place.

Possibly peeler, or just lacked the pace on the surface of the principals. Looked like he'd challenge for the win a furlong out but ends up 4th, which made for painful viewing from the EW perspective!

If they can find a handicap on turf with some cut, he should be up to winning another off his current mark.

I think Sam Missile was 6th, Lee. Unfortunately he just wanted to hang left, had he consented to run in a straight line he would have been placed.

Fair to say the wheels have just about come off, having fallen from around +70 to +18, but hey, it's nowt that a few big priced winners won't put right

July Running Total
P/L : -4

Win stat: 0/2 (0%)
Place stat: 0/2 (0%)

Points staked so far: 4

Overall Running Total
P/L : +18.15

Win stat: 22/233 (9%)
Place stat: 62/233 (27%)

Points staked so far: 375
Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L)

Anyone who thinks there's a lot of wind released on this thread, well you can rest your case, it's all about wind ops tomorrow!

football supporting is for chavs, chav

The inference was that you might be Tom Segal given your recent results

The plimsoll line seems to be in danger of becoming compromised George

Winston C, 2pts win @ 4-1, 3.45 Wolverhampton

Winston C was returning from over nine months off when running well on his AW debut over 11f at Kempton last month in what looked a competitive handicap, being ridden forward from his wide draw and done no favours early on by taking a false step on the first bend, but travelling well thereafter and sustaining his challenge up the straight, only to be run down late on by one who is clearly very effective on Polytrack, before missing out on second place only narrowly.

He was returned to turf for his latest start and dropped back in trip to 10f at Newmarket, where he shaped better than the bare result as he probably wasn't best positioned when the pace lifted, didn't get the clearest of runs, and then made his effort on what might not have been the best part of the track away from the rail.

It's a slight concern that this will be his third run inside a month having returned from a prolonged break, and he's up against some interesting rivals, but he's unexposed on synthetics and over middle distances, and he's given the impression there should be better to come from him.

Shot, George

wd George

Let's put a positive spin on it chav, and say I'm on a winning run of, erm, one!

Cheers Lee

The Detainee, 1pt win @ 7-1, 8.10 Chepstow

This is a horse I've selected previously on the thread whe he ran at Lingfield (AW) back in April and finished second to Victor's Bet, who has won again since. He's been poor in two starts since, but he has changed stables from Jeremy Gask to Neil Mulholland, and if the change of scenery has had a positve effect, he looks on a mark he should be up to winning off, and he has shaped well on turf previously, notably in a Lingfield maiden last season.

The stable switch is interesting because Jeremy Gask is moving back to Australia and presumably his horses are gradually being moved to other yards. One has been Golly Miss Molly, who has bolted up on both her starts since joining Martyn Bosley.

It should be noted Mulholland also runs another stable switcher in this, Monologue (formerly trained by Simon Hodgson), who is currently shorter in the betting, so the market could be informative come race time.

I'm not sure The Detainee would want the ground to be on the quick side, and the presence of his new stablemate confuses the matter, but surprising if The Detainee isn't up to winning off his reduced turf mark at some point for his new stable.

Zamalight, 1pt win @ 5-1, 3.15 Brighton

It was just a class 6 Median Auction Maiden that Zamalight finished third in over 10f at Lingfield (AW) in April on his third start, but the winner and runner-up are now rated 87 and 86, and Zamalight was arguably unlucky not to win, being hampered and carried across the track in the home straight by the eventual winner.

If today's race was on the AW he'd be a 2pt selection, but the trouble is his turf debut at Sandown last month in which he finished well held could suggest he's going to prove best on synthetics. However, at the prices I'm going to take a chance for the minimum stake, as that run might have been needed following a 7 week break, he didn't help his chance by racing keenly and wears a hood this time which will hopefully help him settle better, and SDS takes over in the saddle.

Best to stick with the original strategy, George

WD

Cheers Lee and Virgin. Luckily he got the stands rail. He did shape well at Thirsk, that was a 0-65 and this looked easier.

10p rule 4

Nice 1 George