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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
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Steady on George
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4.55 Catt I've gone for RACQUET just for the fact that James Sullivan is having a day off and gives Rachel Richardson a chance on Ruth Carr's runner
Epsom crazy e/w  Please say it's 3.10 Air Pilot @ 40-1 ......  gl George  |
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To PHS.
No . This tread is brilliant and some brilliant selections by George. Its refreshing to see such as most of the threads posted on the forum are without proper thought or merit IMHO . |
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Funnily enough Virgin, I didn't like to say, but it was also the jockey change on my selection (also trained by Carr) that made a bit of appeal
Good luck with Air Pilot. Cheers theonlywayforward, the cheque's in the post Stand by, a crazy EW selection is on its way  |
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Maybe you just meant a small loss on the day?
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Isabel De Urbina, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 4.30 Epsom
Isabel De Urbina has presumably always been held in high regard by her trainer, and she was heavily backed to make a winning debut over 7.5f at Ffos Las last September, but despite that market support she looked badly in need of the experience, running green and having to be pushed along from some way out, before running on well once the penny dropped to lead close home and leave the impression she had a lot of running left in her. She reappeared in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket and finished runner-up to today's rival Horseplay, with a heavily backed Gosden-trained odds-on shot (who herself had made an impressive debut last season) back in third; clearly she needs to improve just to reverse the form with the winner, never mind others who come here with stronger form credentials, but her trainer, who knows what it takes to win this race, is of the opinion she needs 12f, the surface here may be more to her liking than the quick ground at Newmarket, she's entitled to benefit for the experience, and she's still open to improvement after just two starts. |
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Air Pilot 8th
 Racquet 6th |
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Takbeer, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 8.10 Goodwood
I selected this horse last week when he ran at Lingfield, when I wrote: The ex-French trained Takbeer was upped markedly in trip to from 8.5f to 14f at Wolverhampton on his third start for his current trainer Nikki Evans, and it seemed he did well to finish second given how freely he raced, leading over four furlongs out and still a few lengths clear turning in, before being headed inside the final furlong and keeping on well for second to split two relatively unexposed 4YOs from the Varian and Simc0ck yards. It's a concern that he's been off for two months since and he's switched to turf today, but he was a winner in France on grass and the drop back to 12f may suit, so as he's lightly raced and unexposed at middle distances, he makes a little appeal at the price. He was a little disappointing, again he was keen and he could do with settling better, but I'm going to give him another chance given his lightly raced profile and being unexposed at the trip, plus he might have needed the run last week and he's down slightly in grade here. |
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8.10
Last start lowest best . Light Of Air 1 1 Deep Challenger 6 1 Balancing Time 9 1 Candyman Can 3 2 East India 11 8 Takbeer 5 12 Bostonian 7 14 Saint Contest 2 16 Thames Knight 8 24 Elusive Cowboy 4 24 River Dart 10 39 Career performance . Takbeer 5 17% 50% 12 East India 11 7% 33% 15 River Dart 10 12% 47% 17 Candyman Can 3 19% 50% 16 Deep Challenger 6 17% 50% 6 Bostonian 7 0% 43% 7 Light Of Air 1 9% 36% 11 Saint Contest 2 14% 43% 7 Thames Knight 8 14% 45% 22 Elusive Cowboy 4 8% 25% 12 Balancing Time 9 25% 50% 8 Distance an issue but not @ the odds. |
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Thank you.
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Salouen, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 4.30 Epsom (4 places, 1/5 the odds)
Salouen is my speculative EW pick in what looks an open Derby. Salouen has to prove his stamina but pedigree (related to winners at 11f and 12f) and run style suggest he is likely to stay. The main question is will he be good enough to challenge for a place, but his form is encouraging on that front particularly if finding improvement for going further, given he was runner-up over a mile in the Group 1 Grand Criterium on Arc day, before getting within 2l of subsequent French Guineas 3rd Rivet in the Racing Post Trophy. He made a most encouraging reappearance in the Feilden Stakes at the Craven meeting, pulling clear with Khalidi, who had the benefit of a run (and who has been supplememted for this), and again leaving the impression that there could be more to come at longer trips. Presumably he's been kept fresh for this having avoided the main trials, and he looks a lively outsider with the distance angle being an interesting one, so he gets a speculative vote with four places on offer. |
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Chocolate Noir, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 3.00 Navan
Caught the eye on her reappearance over 10f at Leopardstown, keeping on well despite a wider than ideal trip; bred to stay well and appreciated the step up to today's distance when keeping on well here to finish a close up third behind a subsequent winner; not so good last time when turned over at evens, but it looks better now with the winner having followed up, and it's possible the grounder was quicker than ideal. She's just 1lb above the mark she ran off over C/D two starts back and she remains of interest, being unexposed at the trip. Druids Cross, 1pt win @ 14-1, 3.20 Navan A saver is had on Druids Cross who impressed when keeping on strongly to win his maiden at Dundalk last November, particularly as he had to overcome a wide draw and still looked green; he reappeared in the Chester Vase and ended up well beaten having raced wide from the widest draw; in calmer waters here and disappointing if there is not more to come from this scopey sort, though surface is an unknown; wears a tongue tie for the first time. Taxmeifyoucan, 1pt win @ 12-1, 3.25 Musselburgh Still looked to be going well when getting badly hampered and losing all chance on his latest start in a York handicap; he could do with the forecast rain arriving and getting into the ground, and although up in grade here, he remains unexposed at middle distances. Malt Teaser, 1pt win @ 14-1, 6.50 Lingfield Shaped nicely on the AW when qualifying for a mark, and ran well on handicap debut over 7f at Lingfield (AW) over a trip possibly sharp enough; possible to make excuses for the two below par runs since (pace / surface), and remains of interest back on he AW. |
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* 3.00 Navan
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Summary of selections for Saturday
Chocolate Noir, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 3.00 Navan Druids Cross, 1pt win @ 14-1, 3.00 Navan Taxmeifyoucan, 1pt win @ 12-1, 3.25 Musselburgh Salouen, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 4.30 Epsom (4 places, 1/5 the odds) Malt Teaser, 1pt win @ 14-1, 6.50 Lingfield 7 pts staked  |
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Glad to see its still going well George. Good luck today.
Union Rose and Watchable in the sprints at Epsom today for me. |
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Good luck mackies.
Suppose after starting threads about Nathaniel, I should have got in first with Glencadam Glory, though a bit difficult to tip a horse when you can't even be sure it'll come out of the stalls. Excessable who did the thread a favour last time goes in the Dash, though wondered if this scenario might suit Olivia Fallow, potentially well drawn in 19 but likely will need luck in the run. Had a shortlist of about 50 for today, but have decided to select in no more than 4 races on a single day |
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Looks like the sun is cracking the pavements at Mussy - so I think I can kiss ta-ra to the point on Taxmeifyoucan.
Who'd listen to a weather forecaster, eh? |
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http://www.bbc.com/weather/
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SW Scotland, Lothian Borders
Forecast Summary Today Starting mainly dry and bright, but a few mist patches possible in the Borders and Galloway. Cloud building through the morning though, with showers soon breaking out, and turning heavy in the afternoon with some torrential downpours and thunder possible. Tonight A few showers lasting into the evening, but becoming mostly dry with lengthy bright spells developing before dusk. Clear spells overnight |
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Cheers TOWF, yeah that's what I saw last night, however the reality is currently rather different and the 2YOs have just broken a course record that has stood for 20 years!
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GL anyhow George.The irish stuff not on my radar which is half your interest .
Difficult with that as there are too many runners.Probably alot dont count but they can also get in the way. |
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What a disappointing start to the month and work to do to turn it around. The closest I got today was with Malt Teaser, whose price had shortened markedly through the day. He traded odds on in the run but unfortunately had to settle for 2nd.
The speculative Derby pick Salouen endured a horrid passage down the straight with Fran Berry lucky not to come off when the horse clipped heels. It looked like he had running left in him, though probably pushing it to say he would have troubled the prinicipals. June Running Total P/L : -17 Win stat: 0/12 (0%) Place stat: 1/12 (0%) Points staked so far: 17 Overall Running Total P/L : +52 Win stat: 18/160 (11%) Place stat: 45/160 (28%) Points staked so far: 262 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
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Hamley, 1pt win @ 14-1, 3.05 Gowran
The notebook run was last October on what turned out to be Hamley's final start for Jessica Harrington, when finishing mid-div in a big field Leopardstown maiden, noted keeping on well despite having endured a wide trip and not the clearest of runs. It was hardly encouraging that she was then allowed to leave that top yard for relative peanuts, and the first two starts for her current yard saw her beaten a total of 77 lengths. However, her latest start on easier ground at this track over a mile was much more encouraging, keeping on well to finish 5th of 16, beaten only 2l. The step up in trip to an extended 9f will benefit on that latest evidence and she is selected in the hope that she is going the right way now. Cupid's Arrow, 1pt win @ 14-1, 4.35 Thirsk Cupid's Arrow was well backed to get off the mark in a weak maiden over 7f at Catterick 11 days ago, and backers can perhaps count themselves a shade unfortunate not to have collected, given he had to come from mid-div in a race where the pace held up and he didn't get the clearest of runs. He's back down to 6f here and returned to handicap company, but he ran well off 2lb higher over C/D on his penultimate start when finishing 4th of 13, and he has run well previously on good to soft, so hopefully he'll be fine on softer ground should the rain arrive and change the going. Insurplus, 2pts win @ 9-1, 6.55 Hamilton Insurplus made an encouraging reappearance when keeping on well for a close up 4th over 5f on quick ground at Hamilton. He was disappointing on his latest start upped to 6f at the same track, however, he was held up in a race where the pace held up and he could never get into it. His trainer runs three here and his two stablemates are currently shorter in the betting than he is, however, what is interesting about his chance is the application of first time blinkers, because when a visor was applied for the first time last season, he ran very well to finish a close-up 3rd in a Goodwood handicap off a 2lb higher mark than this evening's. Rain is forecast and soft ground would be an unknown, but with his handicap mark and change of heagear potential positives, he gets the vote for 2 pts. New Decade, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 7.55 Ayr This is another race where Jim Goldie runs three and has two that are shorter in the betting, notably SS Vega, who very much caught the eye over C/D the other night from 6lb out of the handicap and is potentially well in here off her correct mark; while rain would be a boost for the chance of Rioja Day. New Decade caught the eye on his return from a long absence and first start for Jim Goldie over 6f at Thirsk in April, making up a lot of ground from an unpromising position. He's run three times since, twice over 6f at Ayr, well beaten after blowing the start, before running respectably when not beaten far when finishing 5th of 11, and latterly when well held over a mile here the other night. What makes him of a little interest here is the forecast rain because his best form on turf in the past, including off much higher marks, has come under soft conditions. He's out of the handicap here, he's not getting any younger, he's presumably had issues, and he's got the widest draw to contend with too, but his trainer has proven himself excellent in the past of doing well on the level with older horses such as Nanton, Dhular Dhar and more recently Jonny Delta, so in the hope the rain arrives and he goes the right way for Goldie, he gets an EW vote at the price. Highly Focussed is another who has caught the eye more than once, but he has to prove himself on turf. |
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george did you notice the "ride" given to englishman lto by joe fanning at goodwood.
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I didn't, kiw, but I'd say he's a 'sympathetic' jockey most of the time, so if he's giving one a 'quiet' one, it might pass me by!
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yes george he was very "quiet" to my eyes, perhaps that's just his style.
good luck tomorrow |
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Insurplus 6-55 Ayr George not Ham'
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Cheers Rob, I knew it was somewhere in Scotland
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Oi, dont upset the scots on here, you'll be sorry
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No offence intended, dealer
Has the rain arrived yet? Risky business picking on the basis of weather forecasts |
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You mentioned one of my favorite horses earlier George, Dhular Dhar, what a great servant to Goldie, over 150 runs and showed a profit to level stakes. Not sighted for a while, must've been retired at the age of 15.
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not here but im a lot nearer hamilton than ayr. it has been lovely here today
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heavy rain tomorrow into tuesday by all accounts.
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Thanks for the updates.
Jim's had a few golden oldies who seem to keep going for longer than the norm. Hawkeyethenoo was 10 last year when he won with it at Ascot. Not seen this year so far, wonder if he's been retired. |
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Backed Hawkeye' when he won at Ascot last year, Caroline Bartley, nee Williams, gave him a great ride. I think she rode Dhular to victory in the Ladies race on King George day a few years ago too, back when it was over 12f.
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he had a terrible season last year, hence a few with winning marks but in fairness he does well with what he has got
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like a few trainers up here, the motto seems to be keep running them as long as they are sound
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Tuesday's selections
Ocean Temptress, 1pt win @ 12-1, 3.10 Wetherby Satchville Flyer, 1pt win @ 10-1, 3.30 Chepstow Ski Blast, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 4.10 Wetherby Seeing Things, 1pt win @ 14-1, 4.50 Yarmouth |
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George, I've gone tother end of the scale with much shorter ones
Wetherby 4.40 9/4 Golden Apollo (NAP) Re-evening cards: Southwell 7.05 11/10 Monbeg Legend Fontwell 7.50 2/1 Blue Rhythm 8.50 9/2 White Valiant |