There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1263 comments are related to the topic:
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,263
|
By:
Fantastic winner George. Well found Sir
 |
|
By:
Cheers KC!
I think Friday's selection may appreciate some give, but if it becomes testing, that could be an issue. Azam, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.45 Newbury I thought Azam was quite an eyecatcher in the Newmarket maiden won by subsequent Craven winner Eminent last season, meeting with significant trouble in running at a crucial stage before going on well at the finish and shaping like at least the second best horse in the race. He disappointed when a short price for his next start at Nottingham, but it's possible he did too much from a wide draw. Azam then made no mistake when breaking his maiden at Kempton on his final 2YO start, with cheekpieces applied, striding home 6l clear of a subsequent maiden winner, with his stablemate and subsequent Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Hertford Dancer in 4th. I selected Azam on this thread on his reappearance in what is traditionally a strong 3YO handicap at the Craven Meeting, but as in this race, he was the second string according to the market. He didn't shape too badly, however, making some headway and looking as though he may get involved before making no impression after meeting with a little interference from his stablemate and eventual winner Middle Kingdom. Azam looks a big sort with a bit of a knee action, and it could be he's going to appreciate some give in the ground, and although the handicapper has decided to leave him on the same mark, this is an ease in grade and he could come on fitness-wise for that reappearance given his size. It will be interesting to see how he moves in the market in relation to his stablemate Wasatch Range, who is currently favourite, but a chance is taken at a double-figure price, with cheekpieces reapplied. |
|
By:
Another great priced winner George,brilliant!
|
|
By:
Ta knaves, a bit of a purple patch that I hope will never end!
 Good luck with your pick tomorrow, looks an interesting one. Of course that Catterick race made for painful viewing for some of us! |
|
By:
well done george great work, little miffed with myself as backed graceland as well and normally would do small r/fc but didnt, muppet
|
|
By:
Craig, when George expressed doubts about the going, I looked at race again and backed 2 more, Graceland and Blue Hussar, was more than miffed, as usually go to tote page when selecting 3 at at decent prices. exacta paid 145, trifecta 2100 .
 |
|
By:
George to the stewards please, biffs future result book looks to have found a new home, just throw a few down the field selections in the mix too, and they will never know.
I'm on to you George  |
|
By:
sickening not the word i normal do £5 r f/c when do 2 in a race, not make same mistake today as i already back W R so f/c going on now with Azam bet
|
|
By:
lol Ryan. Unfortunately the down the field selections won't be a problem
 unlucky craigie and Rob  I've looked at the times again, still showing as slow by 1.4 for the Dante (over 4 secs faster than Master Carpenter and 10 secs faster than Shutter Seed the previous day over the same C/D) and fast 0.14 for the Hambleton. They're good / good to firm times  If anything, even allowing for it having dried out, you'd think it would become bit holding and still slow the times down.The 2yos then ran a soft ground time over 6f (6 secs otside standard) |
|
By:
Hang on, there were 32 yards extra for the 10.5f races on day one due to rail movement, but not sure that explains the one mile time yesterday.
|
|
By:
* for races up to 10.5f
|
|
By:
Going well George, I've a fair bit to catch up on, gl today.
|
|
By:
Nowt worse than falling behind with the replays, good luck saddo!
Well, an absolute SHOCKER from today's selection. Maybe the lesson is just cuz a horse has a bit of a knee action, it doesn't necessarily mean he wants to be racing on ground with a going stick reading of around 4 I'm struggling for a selection for Saturday (which is probably a good thing after the way today's ran), I was going to select Mutarakez in the 5.10, but not surprisingly plenty spotted his luckless run at Thirsk last time and the 14s has long gone. Anyway, the ground is a bit of query for him too. |
|
By:
Thirsk today, and despite not being a huge fan of the soup, I do like Mulligatawny today who ran a very eye-catching race at Chester last time.
Couple of others today are Lexi's Hero in the hope Adam McNamara rides to his stall position, and God Willing who I think has been interesting this season based on betting patterns and the rides he has been given.Gets his preferred ground today. Also fancy Paddy Power at Newmarket. Definitely be backing any of your picks George - what a week you've had! |
|
By:
That might have been the peak, mackies!
 Cheers for them thoughts and good luck with them. |
|
By:
kinell george not looked in for a week.vwd
|
|
By:
Cheers chav
The Love Doctor, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 4.05 Newbury Perhaps a bit on the speculative side, and only two places, but at a big price The Love Doctor is giving an EW vote. The notebook run was his effort in a division of the Brocklesby, when he might not have been on the best part of the track, and having been prominent throughout, he stuck to his task really well to finish second, suggesting he should be fine at 6f in due course. Better might have been better in his two runs since, but he's had plenty of use made of him on ground quicker than he encountered at Doncaster. The Love Doctor steps up to 6f here, back on ground that he may be more effective on, and with Jamie Spencer taking over in the saddle, interesting to see if a (hopefully) more patient ride on softer ground over this trip results in a better effort. Others bring stronger form into this, but the ground is a query for all of them. |
|
By:
Just gotta take stake back at 9/1
 |
|
By:
My optimism increased when I saw the market support Rob, but unfortunately he ran like a 400-1 after showing up for a couple of furlongs
No regrets on the selection though, I thought it was a risk worth taking on bad ground. |
|
By:
im surprised someone of your pedigree wasnt summonsed to the middleton affair today george
|
|
By:
i had mutarakez note booked from a few runs back and lto was another eyecatcher from a bad draw at thirsk.
i'm a bit worried about the very soft ground for him today and also the price crumbled so leaving him run. hope he blows out and comes for another day. probably pss up. |
|
By:
should have won...
|
|
By:
aye, they'll know next time to hold on to it.
1.4 ish in the run |
|
By:
Well done with PP, mackies
|
|
By:
Thanks George. Kept my head above water for the day anyway!
|
|
By:
Kroy, 1pt win @ 5-1, 2.35 Ripon
Kroy has a over 3 lengths to find if he's to reverse the form with Arnold from their meeting at Thirsk at the end of last month, but given Kroy was denied a clear run from the 2 marker to the one marker, it's highly likely he would have finished a lot closer to Arnold had he got some luck. He has the rail draw here and Paul Hanagan retains the ride. |
|
By:
I was going to select Miss Van Gogh too, who shall we say wasn't given a hard time last time, but seeing as the price has halved within an hour, I'll have to pass on that one.
|
|
By:
I should have said in me little write up that Kroy is 4lb better off with Arnold.
Tbh, it's the sort of selection I want to get away from on this thread, the ones whose price is collapsing within an hour of a few books pricing the race up As Hugh said on his final furlong podcast, some 'eyecatchers' he doesn't waste his time noting cuz he just knows the prices will be gone as they're too obvious and lots of people notebook them. And even ones that perhaps aren't so obvious, for example, Wasm at Nottingham, are being smashed up in the betting early doors (though that was one that didn't run well next time) |
|
By:
Silvery Moon 1pt EW @ 18-1, 3.40 Ripon
Strong Steps, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.40 Ripon In the hope the ground doesn't dry out too much, a chance is taken on Silvery Moon, who I thought indicated on his latest start in the Thirsk Hunt Cup that he could be about to find some form, travelling enthusiastically, but not well positioned how the race panned out, he put in some late work from off the pace on ground which is probably quick enough for him nowadays (his two wins last season came on soft and heavy). He didn't finish far behind subsequent Chester winner Sound Advice or Mutarakez, who arguably threw a competitive handicap away at Newbury yesterday. He's back on a mark he won off last season for today's jockey Rachel Richardson, and while this looks quite competitive with the likes of Miss Van Gogh and Weekend Offender both big eyecatchers last time out, hopefully a combination of softer ground and a decent pace to run at can see him at least challenge for a place. I'm going to have a saver on Strong Steps who seemed to run well (off a 2lb lower mark than today's) against a probable track bias in the Lincoln consolation race on his reappearance and first start for Roger Fell. I selected him on his next start at Newmarket when he ran poorly but it's possible he wasn't happy on the track or ground judging by the way he appeared to be hanging after he'd been headed. I've had a look at his run from York the other day and it wasn't great to be honest, but he was 5lb out of the handicap and maybe the ground there whatever it was (good to soft but race run in a fast time), wasn't to his liking, and perhaps a kinder surface here will suit better. |
|
By:
Weekend Offender has just been pulled out.
|
|
By:
A poor day. Kroy proved weak in the betting and ran disappointingly. Silvery Moon is probably going to need it softer, while Strong Steps offered nothing for a third consecutive run.
May Running Total P/L : +89.85 Win stat: 7/43 (16%) Place stat: 14/43 (32%) Points staked so far: 72 Overall Running Total P/L : +67.3 Win stat: 14/118 (12%) Place stat: 35/118 (30%) Points staked so far: 204 Points won on multiples: 3.25 (included in overall P/L) |
|
By:
Balgair, 1pt win @ 12-1, 8.05 Leicester
Balgair was quite an impressive winner last season on his debut at Sandown, travelling nicley and quickening well to run out an easy winner of a big field maiden auction; the form of that race didn't work out too badly with the third Count Calabash and the sixth Accidental Agent going on to be rated in the mid to high 80s. Balgair ran twice more as a juvenile, finishing down the field in a valuable sales race at the St Leger meeting and then finishing well held in a class 2 Newmarket nursery. The notebook run was his reappearance in a fourteen runner Epsom handicap when dropped in grade to class 4 company; held up in a race where it paid to be prominent, he was noted travelling well if a bit keen, but not getting much luck in the run down the straight; hard to say how he would have fared with a clearer run, but he did seem to shape better than the bare result. He's drawn on the outside here which is a little bit of a concern given it seems he can be keen, but a chance is taken for the minimum stake, with him having been dropped to a mark of 75, which is 6lb below his initial rating and makes him look potentially well handicapped on that debut win. |
|
By:
Arthurthedelegator, 1pt win @ 11-2, 4.20 Carlisle
Hotfill, 1pt win @ 10-1, 4.20 Carlisle Arthurthedelegator was having his first try in a turf handicap on his latest start when seeming to get into a bit of a speed duel over 7.5f at Beverley, and in the circumstances probably did well to finish a close-up third, battling on well once he'd been headed inside the final furlong. He's been put up 2lb for that, but is unexposed on turf, and interesting to see how he fares from the inside stall, if ridden with a tad more restraint than last time. A saver is had on Hotfill, whose best form appears to have come on Tapeta (as when a close third behind Arthurthedelegator at Newcastle in December), however, he did catch the eye at Haydock last October when getting no luck in the run up the inside rail and shaping plenty better than the bare result. It has to be said he's had his chances since then (mainly on Tapeta) and doesn't always help himself by pulling hard, but it's possible to excuse his latest run over 1 mile at Thirsk on account of the trip perhaps being too far; this will be only his second run on turf since that Haydock race and he's now rated 5lb lower, so in the hope things pan out more favourably for him this time (ie he settles and there's a pace to run at), he's given another chance. |
|
By:
ayr probably for silvery moon george although he is getting a bit long in the tooth.
would not give up on miss van gogh, fancy todays race was not run to suit and needs softer ground. good luck with tomorrows pick. ps- 1 of your previous selections going tuesday, i wonder if you will select her....what are sixties icons like with plenty of cut? |
|
By:
Cheers kiw, I'll have to look at Tuesday's racing now to see which one it is! Plenty of them seem to like it soft.
Silvery Moon is knocking on a bit, but I thought there was enough in the run at Thirsk to suggest he may have another win in him. He was 50s on here today pre-race for plenty. Nuff said. Agree with that about MVG. |
|
By:
Mind, looking at the forecast it's gonna be drying fast!
|
|
By:
Evening George. Caught up on replays with a bit of skimping. PM.
|
|
By:
Evening saddo.
|
|
By:
Johnny Barnes, 1pt win @ 12-1, 7.25 Windsor
I was going to select Johnny Barnes at Haydock the other week when he was due to reappear in a Listed race but was taken out on account of the quick ground, so hopefully it won't dry out too much here. He'd been raced over trips of 7f or a mile up until his final two starts of last season when tried over 6f, and he caught the eye both times, in the Ayr Gold Cup when not ideally drawn and not getting the clearest of runs, then at Doncaster when noted travelling well but getting no luck in the run whatsoever. One has to wonder why he hadn't been tried over sprint trips previously given he's by Acclamation, and perhaps this will be a pipe opener for something more valuable in due course, but at a double-figure price a chance is taken for the minimum stake, with him still being something of an unknown quantity at 6f. |
|
By:
Excessable, 2pts win @ 9-2, 3.40 Redcar
Excessable was gelded prior to the start of this season and he has returned in good form, kicking off with a creditable third at Newcastle, before winning readily at Thirsk on his latest start. I wondered if the Thirsk win wanted marking up for a couple of reasons, firstly that he raced close to the stands' rail on a day when I wasn't sure it was the best place to be, and secondly the six that followed him home were all being claimed off. He's been raised 5lb for that victory and he's up in grade here, but he has been rated higher in the past, and interesting to see if he's just a different horse this season who's going to go on improving on his favoured fast ground, or if marks in the 80s are just beyond him for win purposes. Apparently the 'Dash' at Epsom is a target if he gets in. |