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The 2016 Mark Johnston Turf Thread
The 2016 Mark Johnston Turf Thread
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Replies: 1,562
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I gather prices will dictate bets wise as they're both strong
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that's the trouble Fatlad.
I haven't been playing them shorter than 5/2, which is sort of a mental limit. ( a couple have been well backed to get beneath this at SP). A lot seem to go off nearer 2/1 when i want 5/2, it's annoying when they win well but you have to draw the line somewhere.Perhaps i'm just not very good at determining my prices on these types. What i really want is some of the more unexposed runners going up in trip with form that doesn't look too hot placed in certain races, the prices will tend to start a fair bit better and that's the main range i want. Will have to see what's what tomorrow with that pair and hopefully make the right call. |
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My cut off has normally been around 2/1 if it's the only horse I fancy in the race a bit bigger if another in the same race
What makes it hard in your case prices wise is that you're doing it at sp the harder way as you know and alot of Johnston's are kept shorter given his status tough to judge sp's thesedays imo |
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Another 2yo fto Permian 720K
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8/1
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Unfortunately i have nothing on un raced 2yo's Fatlad
An exceptional season so far in that regard and in the last week 8-20 first timers have gone in. This has to slow up eventually  |
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*last month
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I brought it up so you'd give me that info it is incredible cos I always thought his used to come on for the experience
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2yo FTO's...
16-54 this season (29.6%) last season was 18-111 since 2003 FTO with the 2yo's just over 13% |
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*I should say year actually rather than season as this is turf and aw.
Don't know who's confident laying them at the moment ! |
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Anyway off to watch the footy, catch you later Fatlad.
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Huge difference
 Those 2 tomorrow 2's and 3's roughly Enlace will be continuing the Goodwood tee up tomorrow the 0-95 7f on the Wednesday looks the target |
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Another 2yo winner Mailshot 820K bfsp 4.33
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he's only gone and had a double,
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ROI been unlucky against italy in 1st half.
Another 2yo winner on the AW at kempton i see. Didn't realize race montataire is in MJ has bagged last 3 years, price right on the edge. Rosamaria, I had Fahey's down as the main threat as opposed to Shanahan's Price ok at the moment will have a look in morning. |
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Fahey seems to target these EBF races and Shanahan's just outstayed them last time over 6F as they went silly up front so I think your're right
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I had a look at Rosamaria's race again in a bit more depth and actually fancy Fahey's, the late market will be interesting.
Must be mad but have a weird inkling for Plagiarism in the 4:10 Newmarket. It's the fact SDS is on it here for the first time and he has a good record at both HQ courses in hcps for MJ.They've mostly been running very well and there are a few doubts about most in this field though a couple do have decent back class. This could be one a bit left field that sneaks in, it did have ability as a 2yo and showed a bit more last time. This sort of class rise for not winning has been overcome before. |
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rank
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too free early doors was still keen just before he kicked should've won really
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Rosamaria I mean
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Chester 7.35
MJ has won the fillies hcp 3 times in 8 runnings. Would have been every other year if Triple Dip had won last year (3rd). Two in race this year but looks a difficult race. Lido Lady has to be held up - not top jockey - Franny's style at this track. Has put next best jockey at track (Kingscote) on Yorkindred Spirit. Reckon the 3yo's will be hard to beat. |
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debating space mountain this morning.
3.6 ok, ground not certain but seemed ok on it over shorter and won on slow wolves surface, so i'm having a go with trip rise into a 3yo+ good stats in small fiekds this profile. SDS not ahd a turf winner for MJ since the start of April , due one please!Fav obviously strong but MJ very strong in small fields with this type. |
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should go close getting chunks of weight
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close to giving up
was leading and seemed to lose stride but never travelled shocking |
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Take a look at % of how many Mark Johnston odds on shots get beaten, and a record of his fav or 2nd favs in 5 runner or smaller fields....disgraceful how his horses that finish tailed off or never travel dont get looked into. Space Mountain , another weak in market, never travelling last of 4. Isn't this guy suppposed to be a vet?? How come so many of his handicappers win then finish tailed off !!
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He was 13/27 before that race in 4 runner fields with his 3yo's in the 3y0+ hcps.
SDS stats on a follow up winner with similar profile strong but SDS has had 1 turf winner for the yard this season perhaps it's a policy change or they've fallen out  |
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That horse never looked comfortable today, perhaps it did resent the sticky going ? but it was leading and either slipped or caught heals as it turned sideways and quicklyu dropped to 4th.
Will watch it again when replay available. |
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space mountain seemed to have heals clipped of favourite (in 2nd) there watching it again but was never really travelling in front and legs were a bit all over the place.
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No mention for Galesburg, 6.35 Chester? First Johnston runner Ive wanted to back for a while that is at a working price. Back to its last winning mark, should lead, acts on the ground good draw. 2point win for me ie £100 @ 9/2.
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0-24 in 3yo hcps apprentice races, several short prices turned over in small fields including a couple of heavy odds on shots.
put me off Mccoy gl |
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Then again if De Sousa can't get on a winner, perhaps i'm wasting my time looking for clues like this.
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Jeez, how bad was that? Ought to be an enquiry. And it got backed.
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They were pretty much all running good races to a couple of days ago, some shockers last 2 days. Put a line right through that, missed break then badly baulked not a prayer within first 100 yards.
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Can't say the jockey tried very hard, even if he is an apprentice. last summer made a lot of money from the Johnston horses including one that won @ York, 40/1 into 14/1 with SDS up who's name escapes me, but this year I've hardly backed any of his. What is going on, they just run too bad to be true unless they're 2 year olds. Are they all being primed for Goodwood?
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I'm waiting for some unexposed 3yo's on some fast ground going up in trip in the lower class races. These usually pick up a lot in july and august when they meet their elders especially.
If i can't start hitting some then i'll have to admit defeat. |
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7f seems to have been a lucky hot spot for these fillies in 2yo mdns making their starts.
This probably the one that romps in seeing his 2yo's this season but i can't back it. |
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As per usual think price is plenty short enough = romps in
Regal Monarch SDS finally on a winner for yard. |
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Your discipline will be rewarded
I am considering backing Sennockian Song tomorrow should it remain dry though will look again in the morning but he has another 3 entries at 12f and 1 at 10f+95yds he's a 1/2 brother to Gospel Choir + Sennockian Star |
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i'm worried about lido lady here Fatlad
been all over the place class wise he has had winners going up in class for not winning lto heavy ground last time only buckled late |
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back on some better ground may be a slight trip drop could be interesting.
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