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The 2016 Mark Johnston Turf Thread

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By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 24 Jun 16 19:47
Haven't seen the race striding had an unexpected visitor which screwed up the day so playing catch up for tomorrow
By:
stridingedge
When: 24 Jun 16 19:49
Sennockian Song at first glance looks interesting Fatlad will blitz it later and see how it comes out profile wise.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 24 Jun 16 19:51
cheers I'm interested to read them
By:
stridingedge
When: 24 Jun 16 19:52
The inconsistent Master Of Finance returns to HQ too. Unlike many of MJ's the ground looks fine if soft.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 25 Jun 16 10:03
Slightly concerned about the ground for S S have a little on but may leave as a saver will see how it's riding as have backed Doesyourdogbite already
I've left Newmarket alone as haven't had the chance to look properly have had a bet at Newcastle though will probably regret it as have no clue about the track sentiment probably got the better of me LoveCrazy
By:
stridingedge
When: 25 Jun 16 10:25
The ground is a worry even though pedigree not too bad for it. The draw is something else that bothers me Fatlad, yes it's 12 and a bit furlongs but the outside quarters are still suggestive that 11 is a negative. The over all profile is ok ie unexposed 3yo no wins, 2nd run in hcp, up in trip and class. The figures are better in 3yo only races than stepping into 3yo+ company and Chester has not been a track to send these, Beverley,Hamilton.Musselburgh,catterick have been strong with this type.

With ground and draw doubts round here, I can't be having it.

Master Of Finance could leave that last run (when i was on at epsom, didn't go a yard) well behind in the 5:00 Newmarket , he has followed such runs with a win or a transformed effort at least.You could say the Revolutionist run was it's best of career here penultimate start but I can't help thinking there's bound to be at least 1 or 2 of the unexposed runners that will be too good off the current mark.

Out of all the runners today i thought Love Oasis may be able to make it's experience count in the opening mdn at Chester, If it had shown a bit more early speed i would have given it a go from stall 4 but I'd rather wait for a handicapper i really fancy the way things have been going.

So sitting it out today, just hope MOF doesn't manage to do the business more than anything.

Gl anyone playing.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 25 Jun 16 10:50
cheers striding I'm leaving him as a saver and you're spot on about the draw there are always some silly trips every meeting here and given he is stepping up in trip he's likely to be taken back and a hostage to pace
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 25 Jun 16 11:31
no mention of his in the first at newcastle. looks to have a favourites chance, c/d win in what looks like a quick time. ??
By:
stridingedge
When: 25 Jun 16 11:39
I think the price says it all Glasgow, chance is obvious.
By:
__O1
When: 25 Jun 16 13:34
Playing Love Oasis in the first at Chester Fav drawn in the car park and Dascombes outside of Johnstons as well.

Goodwood on the horizon now
By:
__O1
When: 25 Jun 16 13:35
Oh and the King of Chester booked as well.  Don't be swayed by the drift.
By:
Meyer Lansky
When: 25 Jun 16 20:24
Just been watching MJ's horse in that last race at Lingers , I take on board it was its' a/w debut but that was a shocking run.
I know his horses are in and out but this must be very frustrating for those who follow him.
By:
stridingedge
When: 26 Jun 16 13:27
    date        course        class        selection        BFSP        pos        rnrs        dist        rce rtrn        tot rtrn        staked        ROI   
                                                                                               
    24/04/2016        Musselburgh        5        Huntlaw        6.49        1        6        nk        £52.16        £52.16        £10.00        521.55%   
    27/04/2016        Pontefract        3        Deodoro        4.86        4        5        12.5l        -£10.00        £42.16        £20.00        210.78%   
    27/04/2016        Brighton        5        Aleko        4.78        2        6        sh hd        -£10.00        £32.16        £30.00        107.18%   
    02/05/2016        Beverley        5        Ravenhoe        6.29        9        12        11.5l        -£10.00        £22.16        £40.00        55.39%   
    02/05/2016        Beverley        4        Freight Train        8.97        4        10        3.75l        -£10.00        £12.16        £50.00        24.31%   
    07/05/2016        Haydock        3        Bathos        12.66        6        12        5.25l        -£10.00        £2.16        £60.00        3.59%   
    10/05/2016        Beverley        5        Autumn Blossom        7.20        9        10        13.5l        -£10.00        -£7.85        £70.00        -11.21%   
    10/05/2016        Beverley        6        Scarpeta        2.47        1        11        0.75l        £13.97        £6.12        £80.00        7.65%   
    10/05/2016        Chepstow        6        Regal Monarch        4.43        1        11        1.25l        £32.59        £38.71        £90.00        43.01%   
    13/05/2016        York        4        Second Serve        7.81        2        12        0.75l        -£10.00        £28.71        £100.00        28.71%   
    18/05/2016        Ayr        4        Book Of Poetry        5.75        6        6        22l        -£10.00        £18.71        £110.00        17.00%   
    18/05/2016        Bath        4        Mistime        9.89        3        9        4.5l        -£10.00        £8.71        £120.00        7.25%   
    19/05/2016        Goodwood        4        Bathos        9.60        1        10        0.5l        £81.70        £90.41        £130.00        69.54%   
    19/05/2016        Goodwood        1        Dessertoflife        12.65        8        9        24l        -£10.00        £80.41        £140.00        57.43%   
    19/05/2016        Sandown        3        New Caledonia        5.48        4        6        2.25l        -£10.00        £70.41        £150.00        46.94%   
    27/05/2016        Haydock        4        [color=blac****law[/color]        12.47        11        13        7.75l        -£10.00        £60.41        £160.00        37.75%   
    28/05/2016        Chester        3        Zand        13.52        11        12        12.5l        -£10.00        £50.41        £170.00        29.65%   
    28/05/2016        Chester        4        Four Mile Beach        22.20        8        8        21l        -£10.00        £40.41        £180.00        22.45%   
    03/06/2016        Epsom        2        Master Of Finance        12.78        10        10        17l        -£10.00        £30.41        £190.00        16.00%   
    03/06/2016        Catterick        4        Hawatif        3.07        3        6        0.5l        -£10.00        £20.41        £200.00        10.20%   
    03/06/2016        Goodwood        5        Montataire        3.90        4        9        3.25l        -£10.00        £10.41        £210.00        4.95%   
    04/06/2016        Musselburgh        3        [color=blac****law[/color]        8.61        8        11        9l        -£10.00        £0.41        £220.00        0.18%   
    04/06/2016        Epsom        2        Yorkidding        8.59        16        17        75l        -£10.00        -£9.60        £230.00        -4.17%   
    06/06/2016        Pontefract        4        Renfrew Street        4.20        1        6        2.5l        £30.40        £20.81        £240.00        8.67%   
    09/06/2016        Newbury        5        Shadow Game        9.46        4        13        3.75l        -£10.00        £10.81        £250.00        4.32%   
    09/06/2016        Yarmouth        4        Miniaturist        4.31        6        9        12l        -£10.00        £0.81        £260.00        0.31%   
    09/06/2016        Haydock        4        Plagiarism        11.00        3        8        0.75l        -£10.00        -£9.20        £270.00        -3.41%   
    11/06/2015        Sandown        2        Kings Pavilion        7.82        3        9        2.5l        -£10.00        -£19.20        £280.00        -6.86%   
    23/06/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Plagiarism        11.00        7        8        7.25l        -£10.00        -£29.20        £290.00        -10.07%   
    24/06/2016        Yarmouth        4        Space Mountain        3.65        4        4        24l        -£10.00        -£39.20        £300.00        -13.07%   



Still slow going, let 2 or 3 slip through on price this week.I have to draw the line somewhere but i am looking into how i have been setting some of these limits with the horses profiles.I am however pretty sure in the long run it won't be these that determine my fate.

The 3yo handicappers are still to really start flowing, June has statistically been a bit of a lull with regards the actual /expected results and July and August the strongest so I have some confidence that things will pick up.

june expected A/E 0.79
july expected A/E 0.95
August expected A/E 1.05

Data since 2003

The Actual/Expected returns for all of MJ's 3yo handicappers on turf are a very healthy 0.94. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago the fact that the 2yo's were over hitting (the fto's have been very strong this season too) and the 3yo's in particular from the rest were performing well under the long run average of expected results.

The 0.94 A/E returns one would expect over a season with this group on turf are currently sitting at 0.55, It's certainly not an attempt at me making excuses to this point but just a fact indicating that the 2yo's have held more of a sway than usual so far this season and the 3yo's just have not been firing near the norm.
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 10:42
Rosy Morning out again today at ponty is the headache  race of the day for me.

Has bundles of early and a decent draw to attack from, faster ground may also help see this trip out.Although the class (4) is the same as last run over CD when collared very late, the actual opposition has an average OR of 74 today as opposed 80 last time so on paper it looks a slight ease in level of opposition.

Even the RP has spotted the main concern here today and that has to be Sands Chorus (also drawn to attack), the way to get beat with this horse in the race is to hook up with it early.If this were the case here the chances are massively in favour of the more patiently ridden ones, ideally something with mile speed that stays a bit further.

5/1 last night was giving me a dilemma, 3/1 now looks skinny in this scenario. The horse can no doubt take a mile contest in this sort of company but I think it may be happier over a tight 7f somewhere, the thinking being it has plenty enough speed but also the tank wouldn't be running on fumes in the last 100 yards.

My gut feeling is that SC just won't ever take a sit with such a draw and Rosy Morning may be a hard hold if they decide to stalk it, Whatever happens I can't convince myself 3/1 is a good price today.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Jun 16 10:48
I think you're right about the trip but has 3 entries over 1m last time was a fillies h'cap this might be tougher with a few experienced ones with decent course form
Left the meeting alone as was unsure of the weather yesterday morning when doing todays meetings
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 10:57
Visually a mile looks right on it's boundary limits to me Fatlad, I like the horses that I think will stay a bit further and can keep grinding away on the front. I could be wrong but it seems more speed orientated to me and the last thing it needs is more speed in the race over this trip.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Jun 16 11:03
Obviously you know alot more than me about the yards horses and how they campaign them but in years gone by I've often thought they've tried to stretch out horses that don't stay
The main one which annoyed me at the time as I thought they were ruining the horse was Van Ellis who had tons of boot and was very brave but clearly a sprinter from start to finish for me
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 27 Jun 16 11:29
just need sds to hit the traps,get the sectionals right and its 2/2 for LOVE DREAMS.  Happy
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 11:36
Was looking at Triassic, knew nothing of Miss Emma Bedford before her romp on Togetherwecan (also a maiden in that hcp rout). She is drawn for a front run and the horse may be dangerous seeing faster ground for the first time since his debut.Wotabreeze is unexposed and has Serena on top and could race more prominently but the other low draws, there doesn't seem a real pace threat if usual running styles are employed.

lay off never a big concern with returning 3yo's
up in trip
down in grade

Lady amateur races not really targeted, only 3yo in a 3yo+ contest of this nature i can find is Step This Way (2008) which won for Miss A Deniel 14/1 at York.

Usually trust placement with regards trip up to this sort of distance and pedigree hints this should not be a problem. Certainly an interesting runner today, I am considering this one.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Jun 16 11:47
Just had a quick glance at Triassic this could be more like it that Windsor run was pretty decent and will stay surprised he has no other entries
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 11:49
The 4:40 classified race at Ponty...

Yard has a decent record in these contests with 3yo's but Highly Sprung looks plenty exposed, nothing wrong with the horse it just lacks any scope to improve for a distance move and is always likely to run into something that's not shown it's hand so much.

The rag Heraldic in the same race is much less exposed on turf at this trip with only 1 run over this distance when tailed off and looking outclassed in a class(3).I actually like this one better, being stuffed dropping into a race like this has not been a problem before.

9/11 of the winners in these contests were actually trying the trip for the first time and yard never had a winner that's run the distance more than 4 times.
By:
dibdob
When: 27 Jun 16 11:52
I was just writing one up for Heraldic striding. Quite fancy it! GL

Heraldic in the 4.40 at Ponte 33/1

Last and only win was in a class 5 race last year over 6F. Since then has ran in several class 4s, 3s and even a class 2. Best runs on ratings have been 7 length 5th behind Galileo Gold last year and a 9 length last in a class 2 last month. Finally drops back down today to a class 5 race and runs a mark of 74 having been running off marks in the mid 80s

Has a lot to find to win this, but given the horse never ran on ground with firm in the description and is by  Discreet Cat and a dam sire who both do well on firm ground, I hope this will be enough to make a difference. At the price it wont hurt to find out.
By:
bigmart
When: 27 Jun 16 11:55
good luck striding
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 11:58
Dibdob the yard is 10-31 (32.3%) +£18.55 SP in these contests

The only thing I'd say is the winners of these races for the yard have been quite easy to find, 11/1 the biggest price with others in top 3 of betting, the other big prices have been stuffed.
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 12:08
the one thing i did notice looking ta the past winners in these races...

Beaten 15 to 30l lto

24.06.2013 (4.00)    Reggae Star    Chepstow (Str)    1/3    Norton, Francis    3/1    4.25    1.77    Johnston, M
17.06.2012 (5.15)    Queens Estate (GER)    Doncaster (LH)    2/6    Fanning, Joe    11/2    7.47    3.39    Johnston, M
21.06.2010 (9.20)    Omaruru (IRE)    Chepstow (Str)    6/7    Fallon, K    6/1    7.50    2.38    Johnston, M
19.05.2003 (5.15)    Jack Durrance (IRE)    Bath (LH)    1/6    Fanning, Joe    11/1    0.00    0.00    Johnston, M

Beaten >30l lto

16.06.2013 (3.35)    Ofcoursewecan (USA)    Doncaster (LH)    7/7    Fanning, Joe    14/1    14.61    3.57    Johnston, M
15.06.2012 (6.50)    Hyperlink (IRE)    Goodwood (RH)    1/4    Demuro, M    6/1    7.20    3.03    Johnston, M
12.06.2005 (2.50)    Stage School (USA)    Doncaster (LH)    1/9    Darley, K    5/1    0.00    0.00    Johnston, M
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 12:14
Glasgow gl with Love Dreams, it's not really the sort i'm looking at on here Wink
By:
dibdob
When: 27 Jun 16 12:17
So 7 of those 10 winners were beaten out of site lto?
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 12:24
4 out of the 7 that came into a classified (3yo) beaten 15l or more have won, but the market has often been quite aware of their chance.

Unlike some of the better class hcps where they can suddenly come back to form under favourable conditions where they can win/run very well at bigger odds.

This is what's bothering me here, i get the logic of why this horse could return to form and run a big race but especially in these sheikh's silks i find the market is often pretty clued up in races of this class. The sheikh has had 5 runners in classifieds and the winner was 5/2 (had been touched off in a class 3 hcp lto), the highest priced runner has been 5/1 before today's.
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 12:49
After much ruminating, 1 selection today.

2:00 Pontefract Triassic, last price matched 7.6

Inexperienced jock around here of course a risk, but she's had 1 opportunity and taken it for yard on a mdn in hcp on her last ride. This horse will definitely have the speed to get a lead from stall 1 and unless the unexposed fav changes tactics it should get the run of the race here as certainly looks to be a lack of pace drawn inside.

Unexposed 3yo up in trip down in class coming onto a faster surface

I've certainly been banging on about the poor form of the 3yo handicappers this is the sort i need to start getting into gear soon, fingers crossed.
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 12:50
Gl with Heraldic Dibdob i wish you luck (through gritted teeth!) Grin
By:
dibdob
When: 27 Jun 16 12:58
Can't argue against this not being the type of race where something with a chance would go off at  big price. Been a frustrating times with MJ, I may well just be clutching at straws, but its been a long time since I could even feel slightly positive about one of MJs big price runners. Happy with it just placing, everyone would be happy then
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Jun 16 13:01
gl with Triassic striding
Those stats you brought up for the classifieds very interesting I'm taking it in for the future Wink
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Jun 16 13:14
A little plus for Triassic is the first time gelding stats for the sire though doesn't say from how many runners

2:00P    Triassic(IRE)    Vale Of York(IRE) WIN 20.0% A/E 2.91    ROI 920.0% *    

M Johnston    10.9%    0.81    -41.0%
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 13:56
4.6 Whoops
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 13:57
wouldn't have touched it this price now

still hope it goes in
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Jun 16 13:57
wowSurprised
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Jun 16 13:58
r u on
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 14:00
7.4
By:
stridingedge
When: 27 Jun 16 14:03
no lead

stall 13 got across

but beaten miles out

even when market like em too many running like that
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Jun 16 14:05
showed nothing
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