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24 Apr 16
13:39
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Date Joined:
14 Sep 10
Been one of his quieter spells but the turf going has seen a lot of soft in the description and there is a definite correlation with the number of winners and spells of soft or better ground.
3 runners at musselburgh today.
The opening mdn on the card sees the green on debut runner huntlaw.Trainer has a very decent record here with mdns and this is valid for 3yo's in the 3yo+ races, also plenty of once raced green runners have been sent here to good effect on their 2nd run (subsequent 80+ runners too).
2:30 surewecan been a frustrating sort not managed to win since it's mdn days in july 14, perhaps today could be the day to be on now back on turf rated 65, it's been supported it's last 3 runs and either side of a hampered effort at kempton has gone very close. certainly not one to trust too much but this could be it's best chance of the turf season here.
In the 3:30 Freight train looks like it needs further than this now to me, i think others will have too much toe for it and don't fancy it today.
Verdict the mdn runner around 7/1 plus Huntlaw makes the most appeal, Surewecan would certainly not be any sort of surprise but it's just not the type i want to be siding with at the price and Freight Train just doesn't appeal in this given race.
Obviously Freight Train will probably make a copmplete mug of me and run the best race but we shall see...
3 runners at musselburgh today.
The opening mdn on the card sees the green on debut runner huntlaw.Trainer has a very decent record here with mdns and this is valid for 3yo's in the 3yo+ races, also plenty of once raced green runners have been sent here to good effect on their 2nd run (subsequent 80+ runners too).
2:30 surewecan been a frustrating sort not managed to win since it's mdn days in july 14, perhaps today could be the day to be on now back on turf rated 65, it's been supported it's last 3 runs and either side of a hampered effort at kempton has gone very close. certainly not one to trust too much but this could be it's best chance of the turf season here.
In the 3:30 Freight train looks like it needs further than this now to me, i think others will have too much toe for it and don't fancy it today.
Verdict the mdn runner around 7/1 plus Huntlaw makes the most appeal, Surewecan would certainly not be any sort of surprise but it's just not the type i want to be siding with at the price and Freight Train just doesn't appeal in this given race.
Obviously Freight Train will probably make a copmplete mug of me and run the best race but we shall see...
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thx
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Freight train might get an easy lead which is a plus at Musselburgh
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cracking start
must be ok that horse ran free and got headed then got back up  |
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vwd
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WD
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late nibble 9.0 into 6.49 SP
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well done,great start
backed his riflescope other day ( dark horse in stable tour in racing post ) 10/1 night before,went off 6/1 virtually pulled up final furlong reported by his rider to have stopped quickly |
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in goes another just not the type for me though this one
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oi oi
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*not at the price anyway
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w/d
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w/d striding
freight train ( 3.0 not 3.30 ) shortening with bookies massive liabilities ! |
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Yes just noticed go the time wrong on that one
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otherwise not a bad write-up !
will you be giving daily updates if time allows ? |
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Very well done. Annoyed I missed this thread and the Johnston angle. Looked at his runners earlier, but got distracted!
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I'll try to put something up every day
the hard bit is when he has 12 runners or such  |
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Freight Train is a" wins to orders" horse, it pays to watch him closely.
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300-freight train
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freight train not quite got the gears there in the end imo
but up in trip again sure to win more races got on the right one today with huntlaw , ok i left surewecan but at the price happy to leave them hard to win with types. |
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2/3 aint bad
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WD Stride
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I didn't fancy the 3rd one as stated
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i think others will have too much toe for it and don't fancy it today.
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Two turf runners today at bath.
In the 2:45 Havelock runs in the novice race and on debut is pitched in against Hannon's runner who has the benefit of an encouraging debut spin. As a rule Hannon's undoubtedly come on for their first run as the percentages clearly show.Interesting that his runner like MJ's has helmet as a sire.MJ has had a brace of 2yo's from helmet to date and both have scored emphatically (chupalla & boater) on their race course debuts last month over the minimum trip on the all weather.Beckett's is well bred to be a speedy early type and he has got winners here on debut, this is also the case for meehan at the track but the sire of his is still waiting for a 5f winner on debut and perhaps may be better for a run or 2. At 5:05 we see a very ordinary 3yo only hcp with none of the 13 strong field having managed a win to date.MJ's runner here Scarpeta has had 4 runs to date on the aw over shorter trips and i certainly wouldn't discount some improvement now stepping up to this sort of distance.There has been a bit of support for it this morning and it wouldn't surprise me too much to see a big run.The field is a typical lowly grade hcp though full of horses with varying experience (plenty unexposed) trying the trip for the first time and really looks a bit of a head banging race to me. VERDICT: Nothing to see here today for me, I will try and comment on as many of the trainers turf runners as time allows even when i am not backing.For me it's just as important which ones slip through as which i can get in the net as it were. Havelock is definitely interesting with the early season exploits of MJ with this speedy looking type, he has yard sticks for these races, the latter runner scarpeta could well improve for todays conditions but it doesn't score enough points on my ratings to play today. |
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Good luck with this. Minor miracle if you can make anything out of Mr Scattergun.
Just hope for your sake that he doesn't embark on another 100+ loser run. |
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havelock ran a nice race there on debut
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decent 2nd
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thought i was going to regret passing on that one at around 7/1
he's had some nice early speedy types this season no doubt |
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In the 2:00 pontefract Mailshot was well supported on debut at southwell and put in an ok looking first run, we have seen the strength of the yard's 2yo's this season but I have no real angle on this one on it's 2nd run at the price.
The Last Lion runs in the 2:10 at ascot looked visually impressive in the brocklesby for a comfortable success, the form of that race is not always strong going forward and is yet to be really boosted so far. I think it was visually more impressive than the second fav in this race but the hannon's have targeted this race over the years and their's can come on a bundle, wesley ward also brings an un raced one here to add a bit of interest. Back to pontefract for the 3:45 sees Deodoro ridden by royston ffrench teaming up with his old boss.This horse won it's mdn nicely as a 2yo before looking to find windsor a bit on the sharp side over the same trip.She goes up in trip 1 1/2f today and this may be more comfortable for her slightly up in class. The Dalgleish horse has done nothing wrong so far and is proven over the trip and Stoute's runner drops in class and sees a fair increase in trip today.This Johnston runner ticks a lot of the profile boxes with regards the shape of the race and would be a firm pick if we were further into the season where he has a lot of success pitching his 3yo's against their elders. Finally the 5:05 at brighton this evening sees aleko return to turf after it's seasonal reappearance at lingfield.This horse should be getting this trip as a minimum this season and has dropped down the ratings now into a 0-75. MJ has a lot of winners from Cape Cross as 3yo's and this one if it handles the track should be capable of a bold show and the fitness edge on the track over some may just be an advantage today. VERDICT: The last time I did this challenge I let too many marginal selections through the net so am going to be a bit braver here.Deodoro ticks a lot of boxes in this profile of race, the slight worries are that this is plenty early enough in the season to see the 3yo's against the older horses.If this were the height of summer i'd be more confident and this horse could also be plenty fresh enough from a lay off up in trip.Having said that on balance this scores highly in my profile ratings over all and is just about a play.Aleko is a bit more marginal but the price is better to allow for this.This one should be getting 10f this season but i'm hoping with a run on the board it may be able to take care of these into a 0-75 on turf with a strong galloping display. |
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Gutsy performance.
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mail shot goes in
, his 2yo's just running out of their skins |
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striding, what about love oasis 2-55 wolv.
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turf fred
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^ as said
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you could argue the 2 beat were not good prices and the winner had hardly run a stinker on debut?
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Typical, get Johnston's odds on shot beat, and a newcomer come and does mine. He was an excellent source of profits for me last summer but you deffo have to read between the lines with his runners. Makes me laugh how last year he bemoaned the lack of appreciation in the press of the amount of two year old winners he had trained in a month, yet, as a previous poster mentioned happy for them to ignore the 100+ consecutive losers he had the previous winter - one of the most statistically incredible things that has ever happened in racing!
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that long spell from memory had a lot of horses running on soft ground at the end of the season that had either never won on it or never shown their best on it. It went into the aw autumn campaign.
where are these consistent trainers that are easy to read BTW? 'reading between the lines'- i suggest you have to do this full stop regardless of trainer. My understanding is that because more front run than the average, more will blow a gasket and finish well beaten. If they aren't at optimum conditions or a bit high in the weights they can be stuffed because they are often galloping on the pace rather than being more conservatively handled. This is just my theory and others are entitled to think he's just clueless or even bent. A lot of my picks throughout the season will have been pretty well beat lto, it doesn't bother me as long as i have an angle on things he's done year in year out to get winners in this given race. I defy anyone to put up a thread for a trainer that's easy to read |
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deodoro extremely weak here on seasonal return
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dismal show
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