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You mean the 2 pts EW
![]() Certainly no lack of confidence today behind it in the betting ![]() |
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Derby Selection:
Across The Stars, 1 pt EW @ 25-1, Sat 4th June, NR NB Of those at longer prices for the Derby, the one that appeals EW is Across The Stars. The notebook run was his latest start in the Lingfield Derby Trial, when he might have been slightly unlucky not to have won that race (cue Humphry Bogart confirms the form) given he was kept in a pocket at a crucial stage when trying to challenge and appeared to finish with plenty of running left in him. Across The Stars did a lot wrong in that race, racing with the choke out early and then looking ill at ease on the track in the straight (which obviously doesn't augur well for Epsom but at least the experience of having raced round there may stand him in good stead for the big day if he's learnt from it). It's worth remembering that he's still totally unexposed on turf, as that was just his second start on grass and he had shaped with plenty of promise on his debut in a backend maiden at Nottingham. He's bred to improve with age being by Sea The Stars and a half-brother to Bronze Cannon who won the Hardwicke Stakes as a 4YO, and while others bring stronger form into the race, Across The Stars looks highly likely to progress further, and with his stamina looking assured, he gets an EW vote at a price. Got the wrong Derby, only good enuff for the Ascot 'Derby'. Offered nothing at Epsom mind, though probably didn't handle the track / occasion in retrospect ![]() |
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Another one
not surprised by the way given how many of these have won Are you going to continue the thread ? |
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It's a sickener when that happens but to be fair, how many selections have you put up
that have went on to lose again on their next run. If It's any consolation it probably evens itself out. |
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Tbf, a few of the ones picked may never win a race!
Shepherds Purse was another who came good once the curse of this thread was removed, though the application of cash to the betting markets also seemed to help in his case. I'm not going to continue with it Fl cuz May was shyte, Even Song not running in the Oaks was fecking annoying, and above all, my mornings are much more enjoyable not bothering with this! |
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No bother George distractions aren't any good for me either I need my mind right to have any chance and making the right decisions despite having the required knowledge is hard at times hope you're having a good week
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Titus Secret - another big priced winner for the notebook George!
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You know, I'm starting to wonder if this thread was cursed!
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Keep the faith. It pays in the end!
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I managed to nail Gurkha Friend to the floor twice on this thread, but free of the curse, he bolts up today
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Didn't go unnoticed George!
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Now Hatsaway was one of the few that did manage to overcome the curse and win, when the angle was being unexposed at middle distances, having been run in the 2m Queens Vase at RA by Clive Brittain, but then strangely (imo) kept to around a mile / 10f, despite his stamina laden pedigree.
Bit of a surprise, but goes in again at 20s in a much better race, clearly was crying out for a trip all along ![]() |
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Le Menege Enchante, the first horse picked on this thread and subsequently followed over a cliff, finally comes good at 40-1 when I didn't have a sausage on. Ya gotta larf, eh?
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It got a good deal of consideration in these quarters this morning George but ended up leaving the race alone
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It went a huge price IR when Hunty mentioned it was struggling, mackies
It did show a bit more lto at Kempton, but I refused to be sucked in again ![]() |
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I am genuinely gutted for you George hope all is well aside from that result
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Good, cheers, Fl
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Unlucky George.
As a follower of lists myself you simply have to keep the faith. You select something on the basis that it can win A race and oftentimes you simply won't fancy it because of the competition, market, draw, ground and the million myriads. You won't win by backing horses with unattainable prices a la Hugh & Tom but this contrarian approach gives you chances at big prices. To my eternal days I will rue letting Sole Power go unbacked in his Nunthorpe win and more recently Ramone in the Park Express Stakes - both at 100/1 - so we've all been there. My theory is that the bigger the price the bigger the bet and you will have the occasional GLORIOUS day. |
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Words of wisdom there, RoyalAcademy
If only I'd taken heed as Ziggy Lee becomes the latest to oblige after being freed of the curse of the notebook thread ![]() When I selected Ziggy lto you cudda had 150s on here near the off, but it looks like they've landed a right touch there ![]() |
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African Showgirl, 1 pt EW @ 10-1, 2.00 Kempton
African Showgirl caught my eye at Kempton over 6f on her reappearance back in April, not getting the clearest of runs before staying on well to be nearest at the finish; her dam is a half-sister to 14f Flat / Fred Winter Hurdle winner Hawk High, as well as a thrice 2m4f winner (by Diktat) over hurdles on heavy, so there is stamina in the pedigree and African Showgirl showed improved form when stepped up to a mile lto at Brighton, staying on well for second, with a subsequent winner behind her in third. Her mark has gone up 2lb to 57, but that still leaves her 8lb below the mark she ran off on her reappearance, and she's of interest back at Kempton, if building on that Brighton run, now connections are running her over a trip that may prove more suitable than sprint trips. |
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Just noticed the RP reporter at Kempton refer to a "new surface" bedding in and it's riding standard to slow. So who knows how it will ride or if there will be any pace / track bias. Caution advised imo!
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. http://kempton.thejockeyclub.co.uk/pr-policies/press-releases/kempton-park-completes-latest-all-weather-refurbishment1
Snippet..."Kempton Park today announced the successful completion of its latest All Weather track refurbishment, as part of an ongoing commitment to providing an excellent racing surface through regular maintenance and rejuvenation. These latest refurbishment works saw 56 tonnes of the original blended wax added to the racing line and 14 yards wide in the home straight. It means The Jockey Club has spent nearly £1m on maintaining the quality of the racing surface in the last four years." |
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Thanks for that, ST
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Gl George
When they say the racing line im assuming they mean the inside of the track. Be interesting to see if any jockeys brave a wider route today. |
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Cheers, mackies
I'd be concerned if there's a pace bias or kick-back, as presumably my guess will be held-up. |
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Poor effort from AS who wasn't badly positioned as the race panned out, but found disappointingly little. Only feeble excuse I can offer is that the surface riding on the slow side didn't suit
![]() Well it's deffo going to be as it says on the tin from now on ie one a day, and unfortunately back with a losser ![]() There's always tomorrow... |
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Unlucky George. Haven't seen the race im abroad and my internet isnt what id like it to be!
Good to see the thread back. |
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Ta mackies.
I had a short(long)list of 8 today and one of them was Plymouth Sound (4.00 Kempton). I was looking for clues to see if he would handle the AW, and remarkably, all three of his half-siblings ran once at Kempton and all 3 won! So fair to say PS is bidding to uphold family tradition and make it 4 out of 4 at Kempton! |
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Some nice late headway but too far back in a slowly run race (8 secs above standard)
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Just Fred, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.30 Salisbury
Just Fred shaped reasonably well on his first turf start two runs back at Brighton over 7f (good) when his cause wasn't helped by failing to secure a clear run inside the final furlong, while also leaving the impression a stiffer test would suit; the first two home in that race have franked the form since in a higher grade, with the winner Frank Bridge going on to win comfortably at Epsom, and the runner-up Harmony Bay finishing second in a competitive class 5 handicap at Sandown. Just Fred was bitterly disappointing on his latest start over 7f at Chepstow behind Prince Of Cardamom (who reopposes here and is unpenalised for his win on Saturday evening at Lingfield) and it's a tad worrying to see the cheekpieces quickly reached for, however, it's quite possible the 7f trip on quick ground at that track was unsuitable and this sizeable sort may appreciate going up in trip on this more conventional track; he's a son of Excellent Art and a half-brother to multiple soft ground 1m scorer First Post, so hopefully the rain-affected going won't be a problem for him. He remains unexposed on turf after just two starts, yet the handicapper has been quick to drop him 7lb (which gives him an 8lb pull with Prince Of Cardomom), while the promising George Wood takes off a further 7lb. |
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Based on the evidence of the first two races, trap 4 could prove tricky for today's guess. Stands rail is looking good so far
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When I heard Lydia on RUK say she'd tipped Just Fred, I was hoping it was going to be a case of great minds....Unfortunately Just Fred could make only laboured late headway, which was disappointing, even allowing for him possibly not finding himself well positioned on the outer and furthest from the stands rail.
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Fenner Hill Neasa, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.20 Brighton
Fenner Hill Neasa has looked limited on the evidence to date as indicated by her basement rating of 46 (down from 50), but I thought she was a minor eyecatcher on her latest start over 1 mile at Brighton, with longer trips in mind, having noted her keeping on quite well in the closing stages after been held up ( she can be keen and wore a hood for the first time on her latest start). She's a half-sister to a dual winner (on good and heavy) over hurdles, and notably Leah Freya (also trained by Pat Phelan) who has won four times over middle distances and although she's effective on any going, her best RPRs have been recorded with give in the ground. Fenner Hill Neasa steps up to 10f today and needs to prove she has some ability, never mind stamina and effectiveness with give in the ground, but her latest start wasn't without hope and her pedigree suggests this step up in trip with give in the ground may suit. |
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* after been held up = having been held up
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Fenner Hill Neasa definitely stayed, in fact it looked like she could have done with a stronger pace, but at least she got the place money (20p R4)
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Inshaa, 1 pt EW @ 16-1, 8,05 Newcastle
Inshaa has been a bit of a 'cliff' horse for the thread, but he's of some interest back on Tapeta. The notebook run came at Wolverhampton last December on his first start for six months and for Michael Herrington, having been bought out of Sir Michael Stoute's yard for 10,000 gns; that evening he travelled noticeably well on the Tapeta, though perhaps not best positioned relative to the winner as the race panned out, and although he could make no impression on the well-punted Flowers Of Venus (who has gone on to be officially rated 88), he ran on well to finish second and hit the line strongly, suggesting 6f was probably on the sharp side for him. It's been a bit of a mixed bag since, running OK on Fibresand before disappointing at Chelmsford, and then catching the eye again at Wetherby when upped in trip to a mile, making nice late headway having been dropped in from a wide draw; he possibly didn't get the clearest of runs at Redcar, but the last two runs have been poor, though he failed to settle at Carlisle and the ground might have been unsuitable last time at Ayr. Whatever, patience is wearing thin, but the promise of that Wolverhampton run is not forgotten, so he's given another chance, down again in the weights, dropped back in trip to 7f with cheekpieces applied, and racing on a surface that may suit him best. |
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Hopefully today's the day it's carrying my penalty too but at that price hard to leave after those earlier eyecatching runs and the circumstances you've mentioned GL
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Good luck to us both, Fl
I see Monday's selection African Showgirl is a lot stronger in the betting today than she was then! |
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Getting closer GB
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