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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook

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By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 May 16 15:41
No excuses for Mujaamil, who doesn't look any great shakes on that evidence (unless he'd prefer a sounder surface), ran alright to be third, but he had his chance and was left behind by the first two.
By:
stridingedge
When: 26 May 16 16:26
no good to me but bazzat ran a hell of a better race (4th) than it has before at a massive price
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 27 May 16 18:33
Auspicion won today George
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 27 May 16 21:17
Adventureman, seem to recall that on the thread before. wins today with the pieces on.
Hope you've had a few plays today george and just not jinxed them by putting them up hereCrazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 May 16 21:17
So too Adventureman, Stevie

You gotta larf, eh? Crazy
By:
PHS
When: 27 May 16 21:31
Cry I backed Adventureman last time
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 28 May 16 12:05
Hard to bear with those two last night George I know you can't say whether you backed them now (hope you did) but they'd have been handy for the p+l.
If you didn't back them take a bit of solace that in reality many times out of 10 the 2nd's in both those races would've won on other days/less unlucky runs/against biases.
Haven't fully kept up to date with everything as have been a bit ill again but trying to bounce back now with my driving gloves and sneakers on hand to get me round a few betting? establishments most mornings.
All the best
By:
mackies-fc
When: 28 May 16 12:17
Wd on those two yesterday George, particularly Auspicion.

Kopassus interesting today with the blinkers back on for the first time since he was a massive 'travelly' eyecatcher over further at Beverley last year.

Also think Arc Royal in the first at Chester will probably leave his debut form well behind.

Gl today everyone
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 28 May 16 12:24
Kopassus is my nap mackies with Majestic Manannan a danger in the first time visor GL
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 28 May 16 22:12
P/L since April 1st:

Early general odds: -1.06
Betfair SP (after 5% commission): -60.86
Industry SP: -73.73

May summary

After a winning opening week when 3 decent winners were found, unfortunately things soon took a turn for the worse and May has ended up being a big disappointment, and although no damage has been done at the early general prices since the thread started, the BFSP (after commission) and ISP stats make for grim reading.

A bit unlucky in that a few of these (Briardale, Adventureman, Auspicion and Usain) have come out and won in recent days at decent early odds, but unfortunately I'd lost the faith / will by that point.

If I can muster the enthusiasm I may resume on June 1st Crazy

One ante-post selection is still to run: Even Song, The Oaks, 2 pts EW @ 12-1

    Date        Horse        Stake        Early Price        BFSP (-5%)        BFSP PL        ISP        Fin Pos        Early Odds p/l        BFSP p/l        ISP p/l   
    1st May        Even Song        1 win        6        3.69        1.72        4        3        -1        -1        -1   
    1st May        Lighning Spree        1 win        13        9.57        3.07        10        2        -1        -1        -1   
    1st May        Mega Fortune        1 win        17        9.98        2.71        9        1        16        8.98        8   
    2nd May        Darrell Rivers        1 EW        17        10.5        3.56        9        2        3        1.56        1   
    2nd May        Chorus Of Lies        1 EW        34        57.05        11.45        29        0        -2        -2        -2   
    2nd May        Briardale        1 win        12        10.5        2.85        9        0        -1        -1        -1   
    3rd May        Hatsaway        1 win        40p R4    13        5.95        1.95        5.5        1        7.2        4.95        4.5   
    3rd May        Gurkha Friend        1 win        10p R4   5.5        3.83        1.63        3.75        3        -1        -1        -1   
    4th May        Avon Breeze        1 win        15        16.25        4.01        15        3        -1        -1        -1   
    4th May        Seve        1 win        17        25.74        7.08        21        0        -1        -1        -1   
    5th May        Dance Of Fire        1 win        12        12.31        4        11        3        -1        -1        -1   
    5th May        Energia Flavio        1 EW        41        36.15        9.15        34        0        -2        -2        -2   
    6th May        Platitude        1 EW        15        25.7        3.18        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    6th May        Ambitious Icarus        1 EW        41        44.93        5.94        29        0        -2        -2        -2   
    6th May        Pandar        1 EW        10p R4    21        6.51        2.5        5.5        1        21.6        7.01        5.4   
    7th May        Mr Bossyboots        1 EW        34        45.74        9.38        34        0        -2        -2        -2   
    7th May        The Warrior        1 EW        34        26.35        8.79        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    7th May        Sunraider        1 EW        21        39.56        6.7        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    7th May        King Of Swing        1 EW        10p R4    21        13.28        4.36        12        2        3.5        2.36        1.75   
    8th May        Shepherd's Purse        1 EW        26        29.14        5.31        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    9th May        Le Menege Enchante        1 EW        21        14.3        3.62        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    9th May        Adventureman        1 EW        9        7.39        2.37        6.5        0        -2        -2        -2   
    9th May        Harmony Bay        1 EW        67        209        27.6        81        0        -2        -2        -2   
    10th May        Auspicion        1 EW        21        17.15        5.02        15        0        -2        -2        -2   
    10th May        Bulgadin Lady        1 EW        13        11.64        3.23        11        0        -2        -2        -2   
    10th May        Smiling Emily        1 EW        41        44.14        6.46        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    11th May        Highland Acclaim        1 EW        19        24.78        5.81        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    11th May        Love Island        1 EW        51        85.55        10.74        34        0        -2        -2        -2   
    11th May        Flowerhill Nova        1 EW        17        11.72        3.33        10        2        2.2        1.33        0.8   
    11th May        Rateel        1 EW        21        18.81        4.82        15        0        -2        -2        -2   
    12th May        Meadway        1 EW        29        45        8.98        29        0        -2        -2        -2   
    12th May        Distant Past        1 EW        34        46.71        7.46        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    12th May        Muntazah        1 EW        21        19.89        4.52        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    13th May        Carry Me Home        1 win        17        17.18        4.66        17        0        -1        -1        -1   
    13th May        Emperor Napoleon        1 win        13        14.78        4.49        13        2        -1        -1        -1   
    13th May        Dottie Lottie        1 win        15        24.15        5.59        15        0        -1        -1        -1   
    14th May        Dream Destination        1 EW        34        68.41        11.88        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    14th May        Theydon Grey        1 EW        51        77.1        15.36        41        0        -2        -2        -2   
    14th May        Racing Knight        1 EW        26        25.47        5.28        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    15th May        Smiling Emily        1 EW        26        29.68        6.32        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    15th May        Becky The Thatcher        1 EW        26        24.42        4.52        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    15th May        Pabusar        1 win        12        20        7.84        17        0        -1        -1        -1   
    16th May        Sonnet        1 win        4.5        4.14        1.64        4        0        -1        -1        -1   
    17th May        Who's Shirl        1 EW        26        28.07        8.79        29        0        -2        -2        -2   
    17th May        Tamujin        1 EW        17        14.72        4.99        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    17th May        Gurkha Friend        1 EW        23        31.15        5.66        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    17th May        Fleurtille        1 EW        34        45.17        8.43        29        0        -2        -2        -2   
    17th May        Ruby Wednesday        1 EW        13        14.03        3.8        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    17th May        Inshaa        1 EW        34        26.76        5.37        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    18th May        African showgirl        1 EW        26        24.25        4.9        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    18th May        Kingstreet Lady        1 EW        26        33.82        6.42        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    19th May        Dessertoflife        1 win        9        12.07        2.76        9.5        0        -1        -1        -1   
    19th May        Play Gal        1 EW        21        42.55        5.25        26        3        3        2.25        3   
    20th May        Miss Phillyjinks        1 EW        13        15.22        3.61        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    20th May        Silver Wings        1 win        13        17.75        4.74        13        0        -1        -1        -1   
    21st May        Nibras Bounty        1 win        45p R4    12        6.33        2        5.8        1        6.05        5.33        4.8   
    21st May        Emperor Napoleon        1 win        7        7        8.19        2.84        0        -1        -1        -1   
    21st May        Rainbow Dreamer        1 win        12        12        12.97        3.86        2        -1        -1        -1   
    21st May        Shepherd's Purse        1 EW        21        21.09        6.57        6.57        0        -2        -2        -2   
    22nd May        Radiantly        1 EW        67        79.64        6.5        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    22nd May        Stone Mountain        1 EW        15        12.1        3.02        12        0        -2        -2        -2   
    22nd May        Mega Fortune        1 win        9        5.53        2.07        5.5        3        -1        -1        -1   
    22nd May        Best Tamayuz        1 EW        17        9.46        2.54        10        1        20        10        11.25   
    23rd May        Lilbourne Prince        1 EW        17        21.69        3.62        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    23rd May        Joyful Star        1 win        5.5        4.52        1.86        4.5        1        4.5        3.52        3.5   
    23rd May        Joey's Destiny        1 EW        17        15.92        4.16        15        0        -2        -2        -2   
    23rd May        Quick N Quirky        1 win        6        5.24        1.86        5        2        -1        -1        -1   
    23rd May        Biotic        1 EW        17        18.01        4.16        15        0        -2        -2        -2   
    23rd May        Zephyr Breeze        1 win        17        22.17        6.7        19        0        -1        -1        -1   
    24th May        Long Awaited        2 win        3        2.86        1.4        2.88        0        -2        -2        -2   
    24th May        Pusey's Secret        1 EW        R4            34        14.89        3.73        11        0        -2        -2        -2   
    25th May        Thecornishbarron        1 EW        9        7.79        2.68        7.5        0        -2        -2        -2   
    26th May        Mujaamil        1 win        4.5        3.76        1.67        3.75        3        -1        -1        -1   
    26th May        Karam Albaari        1 EW        15        20.95        5.15        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    26th May        Charlie Bear        1 EW        21        38.21        7.46        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
                                                                    -22.95        -62.71        -66   
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 May 16 00:42
Harlequeen, 1pt EW @ 25-1, The Oaks

I've decided to add another selection to my Oaks ante-post portfolio (by 'eck chuck, that sounds posh!).

Having impressed when winning on her debut at Goodwood on her sole start as a juvenile, Harlequeen caught the eye on her reappearance in a valuable sales race over 10f at Newmarket against mainly male opposition, shaping as though a stiffer test would show her in a better light; that form could be working out better, but Harlequeen again showed herself to be a very useful filly when finishing fourth in the Musidora, when looking like she would have gone second in just a few more strides, again strongly suggesting a step up to 12f will be in her favour.

It has to be said Harlequeen hasn't looked the easiest, having showed a tendency to race keenly and lug left, but she's had a spin round Epsom in preparation for this and has the right man on board in SDS to straighten her out.

Harlequeen represents the So Mi Dar form, who obviously would have been strong in the betting for this but for injury, and although no match for that filly at York, she left the impression she would have got closer the further they went, so at 25-1, a chance is taken Harlequeen can at least press for a place at Epsom.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 May 16 20:09
Croquembouche, 1 pt EW @ 15-2, 4.35 Windsor

Croquembouche can be a tough horse to pass on his day and he's of interest back at Windsor, where he has won two of his three starts over C/D; he's never won off a mark this high (88), but he has run two solid races in competitive handicaps this season off a 2lb higher mark round tracks (Doncaster & York)  that perhaps don't suit his front-running style as well, to indicate that everything looks in place for him to run a big race now returned to a track that is better suited to his forcing tactics.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 30 May 16 08:02
fav, oaks.MischiefMischief
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 12:05
Good luck with your even money shot, deadbrain59
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 12:41
[b]District Attorney, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.30 Redcar
[/b]
Backing long-standing maidens who were beaten the length of a tattie field over hurdles just a few days ago, sounds like a crackpot idea, but District Attorney is of a little interest back on the Flat over a C/D he has twice run well over in the past.

The two runs in question were back in the summer of 2014 when splitting a couple of unexposed 3YOs on the first occasion, and then staying on well for a never-nearer third on the second occasion; he's only been seen on the Flat four times since, each time in class 5 company and this looks more realistic back down in grade.

He hasn't shown much in two hurdle starts recently, though on his latest start he was still in contention for a place until two out over a  trip (3m) round Hexham that probably stretches him, and at least there will be no complaints fitness-wise here.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 13:54
Derby Selection:

Across The Stars, 1 pt EW @ 25-1, Sat 4th June, NR NB

Of those at longer prices for the Deby, the one that appeals EW is Across The Stars.

The notebook run was his latest start in the Lingfield Derby Trial, when he might have been slightly unlucky not to have won that race (cue Humphry Bogart confirms the form) given he was kept in a pocket at a crucial stage when trying to challenge and appeared to finish with plenty of running left in him.

Across The Stars did a lot wrong in that race, racing with the choke out early and then looking ill at ease on the track in the straight (which obviously doesn't augur well for Epsom but at least the experience of having raced round there may stand him in good stead for the big day if he's learnt from it).

It's worth remembering that he's still totally unexposed on turf, as that was just his second start on grass and he had shaped with plenty of promise on his debut in a backend maiden at Nottingham.

He's bred to improve with age being by Sea The Stars and a half-brother to Bronze Cannon who won the Hardwicke Stakes as a 4YO, and while others bring stronger form into the race, Across The Stars looks highly likely to progress further, and with his stamina looking assured, he gets an EW vote at a price.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 May 16 13:58
GL with D A George,think my best chance of a decent priced winner is Dubai Dynamo 425L hopefully they'll go a good enough clip.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 14:11
Good luck with DD, Fl
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 May 16 14:14
Thought Mininggold could outrun it's price in the 215 but far too many in that race to have any confidence
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 14:33
Nice place, Fl
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 May 16 14:41
cheers George still lost on the race Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 15:37
Good run from DD, Fl, hope you had it EW
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 May 16 15:44
aye DD had no excuses given the gallop,he just doesn't look as fast anymore
The horse I was very confident on last time out King's Currency runs tomorrow 450R didn't handle the ground last time but I stand by the time of that Thirsk maiden the time before,Faheys was an eyecatcher last time and will be a danger but might be worth a few quid at double figures hopefully Whoops
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 May 16 15:47
Sorry Fahey's was an eyecatcher at Donny 2 runs ago Crazy
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 May 16 16:41
Crossbar twice Sad Cracking pick with D A haven't seen the races how did it go?
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 16:44
1.37 in the run Fl, hitting the front and looking sure to win, you can guess the rest...Cry
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 May 16 16:45
Sad
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 17:09
At least it's a winning day, which had become something of a rarity of this thread Plain
By:
PHS
When: 30 May 16 18:15
WD GeorgeWink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 18:39
Cheers PHS, DA would have blew a hole in those minus stats, still the place profit is a start Plain

When I saw deadbrain's post, I thought he was telling me the fav was out, but no, he's tipping it Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 19:56
Inshaa, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 3.20 Redcar

This is one I selected lto at Wetherby when I wrote:

Ex-Sir Michael Stoute trained horse who caught the eye over a trip (6f) possibly on the sharp side at Wolverhampton on his debut for Michael Herrington towards the end of last year; two runs since have been relatively disappointing, but one was at Southwell (not disgraced in third) and the other at Chelmsford over 6f (track and trip might not have suited).

Inshaa is returning from a 2 month break here and the draw has not been kind, but he may have benefited from a gelding operation since last seen, and no surprise if this well bred, scopey sort, comes good for his new yard at some point.


He shaped well at Wetherby, the race not going his way from a wide draw, but he again caught the eye with his finishing effort after not having the best of runs; hopefully he's come on for that fitness-wise and the draw shouldn't be an issue on this occasion.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 May 16 20:06
Wouldn't be surprise if it was just a case of when the brakes come off with him George given the yard. He first caught my eye behind Flowers On Venus at Wolver in the race you mentioned (who I think has plenty to offer at a higher level). FWIW I'll be having a few quid ew on Almuhalab at double figures. He sometimes looks a bit one paced but is a solid enough type that'll be up there all the way and'll like the long straight. GL
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 20:09
Good luck with Almuhalab, Fl.

I see our old friend is dropping back to 6f tomorrow, with a visor on Shocked
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 May 16 20:12
Laugh Aye forgot about him,going to wait and see the betting expecting it to be on the soft side by then and in fact his best runs have been over the sharpest tests but I'm not going in like before though would be gutted if he won at a decent price and wasn't on Scared
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 20:18
Looks like half the field are out of the handicap Shocked
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 May 16 20:33
Invincible Wish, 1pt win @ 10-1, 7.10 Wolverhampton
Chauvelin, 1pt win @ 10-1, 7.10 Wolverhampton

Invincible Wish is another horse that has been selected previously as I thought there was angle in with the step up in trip to 12f, and he ran really well over this evening's C/D two starts back when splitting a couple of bang-in-form rivals, with a well-punted Irish-trained horse back in fourth; he was disappointing lto when the switch to turf shouldn't have been an issue, but he's been dropped 1lb which allows him into this 45 - 60, and he looks worth another chance at a double-figure price, in the hope he doesn't pull his chance away.

Chauvelin is out of the handicap here but he's well handicapped on old form, and he's been shaping a lot better of late than his form figures suggest, given a combination of doing plenty in front / kicking for home too soon, have cost him on recent starts; Franny Norton takes over in the saddle tomorrow, so hopefully the horse's energy will be used to better effect and he'll have something left for the finish this time.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 31 May 16 12:16
A few speculative ones here! Scared

Tred Softly, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 2.50 Redcar

I noted Tred Softly at Wolverhampton in early March on his second start, when shaping nicely over a trip that's like to be inadequate given his stout breeding (By **** and a half-brother to 12f - 2m winners); following a further run for a mark, he went handicapping off 58 and his handicap debut at Beverley, when weak in the betting, was underwhelming, finishing last of the 11 runners (and behind four of today's rivals).

Clearly he has a bit to prove and he's very weak in the betting again, but he may strip fitter for that first run in two months, he steps up in trip to 14f, and gets first time headgear, so gets a tentative vote from the inside stall.

Ziggy Lee, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 4.20 Redcar

Lightly raced 10 year old who makes a little appeal at big odds on his return from a long absence; he's an old notebook horse who had caught the eye on his return from a long break at Newmarket in 2012, when looking unlucky not have finished a deal closer having been denied a clear run.

He returned from a break of over a year in 2013 when winning at Beverley, and although he failed to go well fresh off a break in 2014, he did go on to post some fair efforts in defeat.

This is clearly risky on his first run for a new trainer, and at the age of 10 who knows what ability remains, but there is a history of running well or winning off a prolonged absence, and as his mark has dropped to a potentially favourable one, a chance is taken at the price.


Straduff, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 4.00 Leicester

I noted this horse on his debut at Brighton last season when he looked green but caught the eye with how well he hit the line, and the form of that race worked out well with the three who finished ahead of him going on to win races and showing a fair level of form; however, that debut was in May and he wasn't seen again until reappearing on the AW in February, and the four runs on synthetics have been disappointing (albeit a couple were for a mark, and there seemed to be an issue on the home turn when well backed on his handicap debut at Lingfield).

There are a couple of big negatives regarding his chance today - stable form (just 2 winners from 84 runners this year) - and he's not well in on the adjusted figures, but at huge odds I'm going to give him a speculative vote back on turf and in the hope a 45 day break has done him good.

Compton Lady, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 5.30 Leicester

Compton Lady was noted on her nursery debut at Salisbury over 7f on soft ground last September, on a day when it looked an advantage to race against the stands' rail, and she did best of those who challenged away from it to finish fourth (had subsequent winners behind her); the way she shaped that day and the dam's side of her pedigree (half-sister to 11f winner and 2m2f hurdles winner) suggest she should be fine at longer trips.

The two runs since has been very disappointing and she has to prove what ability remains, but it could be she needs juice in the ground and rain is forecast for Leicester, so off a 7lb lower mark than at Salisbury, she gets a vote at rewarding odds.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 31 May 16 12:23
The shackles are off! You're right about the Leicester rain but sadly for me (probably) the Redcar forecast has changed and will probably stay dry. Hugh has put up Inshaa so you've got the value now. Looked again at that race this morning and the more I looked the trickier it got. I've backed Shamaheart the last twice and looked again at his last run and was one of a couple of eyecatchers  in that race so had a few bob on at about 10's.
Haven't backed Vecheka will wait and see GL
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 31 May 16 12:35
St Hugh makes a fair point about there potentially being no pace on, but I don't know enough about the horse to assume that he has to be dropped out and presumably he was ridden that way at Wetherby because of his wide draw; so hopefully Lee will have him closer to the pace if they are crawling along and will let him roll on soon enough if need be.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 31 May 16 12:36
Good luck with Shamaheart, Fl
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