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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
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Two against the field in the 6.15 Tipperary (4 places on here)
Bulgadin Lady, 6.15 Tipperary, 1pt EW @ 12-1 Another chance is given to Bulgadin Lady who caught the eye over 1m at Leopardstown at the backend of last season, when making up a lot of ground in the straight having been poorly positioned as the race panned out. She was bitterly disappointing on her reappearance at Cork when seemingly strong in the betting, perhaps the ground was too testing and lack of race fitness told; given over 6 weeks off since, Bulgadin Lady is given another chance, now 3lb lower than at Leopardstown. Smiling Emily, 6.15 Tipperary, 1pt EW @ 40-1 Smiling Emily is 8lb out of the handicap here which obviously isn't ideal, but she's still of interest this evening for two reasons, one is her standout run of last season when just failing to overhaul today's opponent Niven on soft ground at Cork over 1m when in receipt of 19lb, this evening she's in receipt of 27lb from the topweight. Secondly, although she failed to build on that effort after, I thought there were definite signs on her latest start over 7f at Gowran that she may be about to take another step forward; dropped in from a wide draw, she had plenty to do turning into the straight but caught my eye with how much ground she made up and was noted going on well at the finish. The step back up in trip should suit, and Tom Madden, whose 5lb claim partly offsets being out of the handicap, and who was aboard for the Cork run last season, takes over in the plate again. |
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It hasn't taken long to back on the cold list
 Two against the field in the 2.40 Highland Acclaim. 1pt EW @ 18-1, 2.40 York Highland Acclaim failed to win last season after progressing well in 2014, but he showed enough off slightly higher marks to suggest he's capable of winning off today's mark of 94, including when finishing second of twenty at the Ebor meeting over 5.5f; that wasn't the first time he gone well in a big field handicap at this course having beaten 17 others over today's C/D in June 2014 and later that season finished second of 20 off a mark of 100. The notebook run was also at York, on his penultimate run of last season, when his finishing position of 18th of 19, beaten 13l, does not in any way tell an accurate story, as he seemed to have plenty to offer but was denied a clear run and lost all chance before being heavily eased. The downside to his chance today is that he doesn't have a great record fresh and fitness has to be taken on trust, but his trainer is well capable of having them ready to win first time out, so a chance is taken at decent odds given his decent course record and having shaped a deal better than the bare result on his last visit to the Knavesmire. Love Island, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 2.40 York A more speculative suggestion at huge odds is Love Island, who was another who failed to win last season, but ran some creditable races of similar marks to today's, including over C/D when finishing second in class 2 company (albeit in a race confined to fillies & mares) and when placing twice at Doncaster at odds of 33-1 & 25-1. Regarding fitness, it is encouraging that she ran so well on her reappearance last season when finishing second at Doncaster, and regarding course form, it is encouraging that she has finished placed on all three visits to the track. This may be hotter than she cares for, and one may question what an exposed 7YO mare has left to offer, but it's worth noting that her trainer has brought back another 7YO mare, Avon Breeze, to be in career-best form this spring. |
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Gl today George
Watching back auspicion run last night, do think i put a too positive slant on it. |
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You can't say that George you just had a 20/1 winner (10p R4) 5 days ago!
 You've put my cliff horse of last year up Highland Acclaim he would be a sting in my tail and you're right about O'Meara and his first time out shenanigans often (unexpected to me),I'm tempted to have a saver now will look again.Gl today  |
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I didn't take anything from the run, striding, having thought there was something there to work with on the previous two runs, particularly off a reduced mark.
It's hard to blame the ground as the earlier form (including arguably his best run at Musselburgh) had suggested he would be fine on it. It can only be a watching brief next time imo. |
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Good luck Fl, if I could be sure he's ready to roll, I'd be quite optimistic given his course record, but at 18-1, I've taken the chance.
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I've had to stick a saver on as you say at the price,I'd kick myself now if it won and I had nothing on it after you put it up.
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Thanks for the vote of confidence, Fl
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There's a valuable handicap for 3YOs this evening at Naas and a couple in the race are of a little appeal at prices.
Flowerhill Nova, 1pt EW @ 16-1, Naas 6.10 This is a bit chancey as the notebook run came at Dundalk and he has to prove himself on turf, but at the odds a chance is taken, particularly as his trainer is in good form, having recently trained the winners of 2 competitive Curragh handicaps. The notebook run was his most recent start, when finishing last of 6 at Dundalk, but that does not do the run justice as he got no run whatsoever and seemed to finish with plenty left in the tank. He has finished behind both More Than Munny and Rateel during the winter season at Dundalk, but now finds himself significantly better off at the weights, though ability to transfer that AW form to turf is a query for all three. Flowerhill Nova did race on turf on his debut last season and finished well beaten, but it's likely he needed the run / experience. Rateel, 1pt EW @ 20-1, Naas 6.10 In the same race I'm going to include Rateel also, because he had caught my eye over 5f at Dundalk (he'd won over a mile when trained by James Tate) prior to winning over 7f there, and although he could finish only 4th of 13 when dropped back to 6f there lto, I still thought he ran well given he seemed to do plenty from a double-figure draw (winner came from well back). He's 2lb out of the handicap here and has to prove himself on turf, but the three runs for James Tate were probably to get him handicapped judging from the SPs, and as he could still have more to offer for his current trainer, a chance is taken at 20-1. |
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* the three runs on turf for James Tate...
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I gave Love Island some consideration today George for similar reasons.
I could make a case for a few in the race but I can't get away from the thought that Hoof It is absolutely thrown in. Had a little on Empress Ali ew in the first which also looks really competitive. Gl today |
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Good luck with Hoof It mackies, seems to have plenty in his favour today.
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I'm also on Hoof It Mackies as well as See The Sun gl today
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Muntazah, 1 pt EW @ 20-1, 3.15 York
Muntazah makes some each-way appeal in the Dante at the prices; he was a big eye-catcher on his debut at the July meeting last season, both physcially and in the race itself, when despite meeting some serious trouble in running, he somehow managed to fail by just a head to prevail. His second run over the same course and distance on the July course was disappointing, but it's possible the soft ground didn't suit, and he made amends when comfortably breaking his maiden at Leicester. Muntazah finished behind Deauville and Foundation in the Royal Lodge, but his effort can be marked up, having over-raced early on and perhaps gone for home soon enough. Given his size, he's entitled to have improved for another winter on his back, and the step up in trip should suit, being out of a Park Hill runner-up (who is a half-sister to a 12f Group 3 winner, as well as Guineas heroine Ghanaati, out of a half-sister to Nashwan). He has ground to make up on Deauville and Foundation, and may not have the potential of Midterm, but he has achieved more than a few of them ahead of him in the betting, and so with the potential to improve further this season, a chance is taken each-way at the prices. |
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Thanks PHS, but unfortunately I failed to beat the 8 pm deadline, cuz the price has just been smashed, which can only mean one thing...
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Surely, you wouldn't post the write-up before you were 'on'?
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Decent place there with Flowerhill.
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I had a little on PHS, but obviously for the keeping of accurate statistics for this thread, the price has to be there at the time of posting.
The same thing happened with a Burrows runner at the recent Sandown meeting, though having said that, that one drifted back out and could be backed at 20s all morning (ended up finishing second at 20-1). |
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*16-1
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I see! Yeah, but if it is PW, anyone can get on at 8:30!
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Confirmed PW.
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RE: Flowerhill Diva
I was seriously worried when I saw draws 13, 14 and 15 had filled the places in race 1, and my two were drawn 1 & 2 (even in a smaller field), but thankfully FD got placed which saved the loss of another 4 points  |
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PW win only (1pt)
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Cheers PHS, I look forward to comparing his write-up to mine!
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PM sent (extra bit by mistake).
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Cheers PHS, reply sent.
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Meadway, 2.10 York, 1pt EW @ 28-1
It's tempting to think of Meadway as a horse who's best on Fibresand given he's 3 -3 on that surface, but he has won on turf (including at York, albeit off a much lower mark) and run well in defeat (he was a good second of 16 on his reappearance last season at Musselburgh, off a mark of 88). The notebook run came on Polytrack off today's mark of 92 at Chelmsford over 5f two starts back in December, having done well to finish as close as he did given the disadvantageous wide trip he endured. He was upped in class and brought out quickly just 6 days later over the same C/D, but failed to be competitive even allowing for the fact that on adjusted figures he had a bit to find with the principals, and it's possible the race came soon enough. He's returning from a break with his yard going well (bagged a competitive handicap at Ripon recently with one making its reappearance, and had two placed at prices in the 6f class 2 handicap on the opening day of the Dante meeting), and with enough evidence to suggest he's capable enough on turf and can go well fresh, a chance is taken at big odds that he can be competitive back on grass off the same mark as that notebook run at Chelmsford, for all a high draw is a big worry on the evidence of yesterday's card. |
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GL George, some hope for your selection given the performance of the Smart runners in yesterday's sprint, both hit the frame at huge odds.
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Gl with Meadway George agree about the draw scenario,I like Royal Birth (has had plenty in hand on the AW and pace should suit) & would've been fairly strong on Lucky Beggar at 16's but that draw is a ?. Can't find anything I fancy at standout prices today hopefully 1 or 2 tomorrow.
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Wd yesterday FL/ George
I backed Meadway that day George and I remember thinking at the time it's the widest I've seen a horse go in a 7 runner race! FL, Tom Morley was very excited about the prospect Royal Birth running on a straight track after the win at Lingfield last time where he looked a much easier ride than he has previously. I think Normal Equilibrium might be gunned forward today to ensure a good pace to suit as well. The one concern would be his turf form so far is below his AW form although he's clearly unexposed and there is no reason to think he won't be as good on grass. I do think though that the track bias yesterday was massive. And because of that Ive gone for Duke of Firenze who is 2-3 after a break of less than 7 days and is very well suited to a sharp 5 on good ground. That run lto getting 2lb from the Group 1 entered Encore D'or could be a lot better than it looked, indeed even the previous run at Epsom there was plenty of promise when he split Roudee who has started the season with a bang and Bouclier who is in my notebook and I suspect George's as well! Gl today |
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Good pointers regarding D O F mackies this should be a good race and there should be a few to keep an eye on going forword gl today
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Cheers robster, I did point out about Smart's runners yesterday, in me little write-up
Good luck with RB, Fl. A high draw is a definite concern given what happened yesterday, but who knows with the ground having dried out more, it may not have the same effect today. Well that's what I'm hoping! Good luck with DOF, mackies. I don't know how much extra ground Meadway covered that day mackies, but it must have been a good bit more than he was beaten by, and whatever that form is worth in the context of today's race, at least it showed he's not just a Fibresand bully. |
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Distant Past, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 2.10 York
Having seen the updated prices this morning, I can't resist having a little interest on Distant Past at a big price. The stable have more obvious claims with Brando, and Kevin Ryan is quoted in the paper as saying that 'Distant Past is a big, late maturing horse who you'd expect more improvement from as the year goes on', but he came to hand early last year and is unexposed on a quick surface. He won three of his first four starts last season, with the notebook run coming on his fifth start at Musselburgh, in the consolation race for the Scottish Sprint Cup, when doing best of those held up and catching the eye with his finishing effort. It should be pointed out that he was unpeanalised that day for his previous win in an apprentice handicap and Shane Gray was claiming 3lb at the time, but such was the progressive profile of this scopey sort, I got the impression at the time that he would still be competitive when his revised rating kicked in. As it turned out, he failed to win again last year in five further starts, albeit not disgraced on occasions, but he did not get the chance again to race on quick ground. His mark has eased back to 90 from 94, and interesting to see if he can resume his progress back on a sound surface. |
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The various opinions we all have on these races just highlights how competitive they are,whatever happens we'll be wiser after the post mortem
 Your old mate Shane is on Lightning Spree again tomorrow night back at Hamilton quite a good card.gl with D P & M in the Dante |
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My favourite saying FL and it's very true of these types of race is you either win or you learn!
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too true mackies
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I've just had a nasty thought that both my picks in the 2.10 could be being aimed at that valuable Musselburgh sprint, as they both ran in the consolation race last year. The lowest rated in the more valuable race last year was 91, so they'd be taken a chance if they didn't run well here and were dropped in the ratings.
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Very well done, mackies
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