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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook

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By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 13 May 16 19:33
Regardless of the tactics that horse has lost at least 5/6 lengths to the winner after 50 yards & got beat 3/4l & a hd. We know it's a travelly type with potential ??'s in a finish but it was a hell of an unlucky loser tonight imo.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 May 16 21:20
Not sure what Whelan was trying to do there on Dottie Lottie, but it made for pretty painful viewing from where I was sitting. There was a gap to his left or he could follow the winner through, but he was intent on pulling the horse to its right where, yep, he ran into trouble Crazy
By:
luckyme
When: 13 May 16 21:32
yes George, he may have been able to get thru the gap but it looked on tv anyway he made a balls of it.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 May 16 21:45
Had he stayed where he was, luckyme, it would have opened up for him - typical! Not saying she would have won, but she would have pressed for a place at least imo. Best just move on Plain

Well the profits for the month have just about been wiped out, and the less said the about the BFSP / ISP stats the better. Fair to say I ain't looking forward to publishing the updated figures Cry
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 May 16 22:16
nowt to worry about George, bound to get long losing runs at these prices.
By:
nocturnal
When: 13 May 16 23:58
It will turn GeorgeWink

2-50 thirsk

Energia Flavio interesting,fahey managed to get him down almost a stone in the short time had him.Hoping the quicker ground and inside berth will see him go from near the pace,travelled well in his last race,around 13/2,has he found his level?

GL ALL
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 May 16 00:50
Stevie, I always remind myself, even the great St Hugh once went 70-odd selections without a winner Wink

nocturnal, good luck with EF. I selected him on this thread EW at huge odds when he ran at Chester, and when he was travelling well turning in, I thought he was good for a place at least. That's what 'thought' did for me! Cry
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 14 May 16 08:01
looks an interesting race that one Nocturnal, Koukash moved that horse to Fahey from Botti's and was gelded and then looks like Fahey was getting it ready for another koukash chester runner, certainly looked like he didn't see it out so drop back in trip and 2lb less certainly gives him a chance on that windsor run. Fahey may even get some improvement out of it. This Taysh could be one of those Appleby ones that keep improving now and that Torrid looked quite an eyecatcher last time, held up a few lengths off the field and keen and then just allowed to come through once the winner and 2nd had gone, he certainly looks like he has plenty of that ability he had when with Perrett just depends what the Easterby plan is. You'd have to be disappointed if EF doesn't go close though. GL with the bet.
By:
TheNorfolkMafia
When: 14 May 16 08:18
Could you supply us with your updated BFSP / ISP figures, please!

Only I could do with a f*cking good laugh!
By:
mackies-fc
When: 14 May 16 09:11
Two for me today

Manatee Bay
Doctor Parkes

Gl today
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 May 16 10:23
TheNorfookMafia, when you've won the premiership naps comp with over 40 points profit at ISP in a single month, come back and tell me how you did it, until then, sling ya hook Laugh
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 May 16 10:24
Good luck mackies
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 May 16 10:37
Dream Destination, 3.20 Newbury, 1pt EW @ 33-1

The stable have more obvious claims with Dream Dubai, but Dream Destination is of a little interest at a price racing over 6f again, despite his trainer being of the opinion that the horse may need the run on its reappearance; he was a strong finishing second over 6f in a Group 3 at Kempton on his fourth start prior to the notebook run on his fifth start over 5f at Ayr behind subsequent dual Group 3 winner Quiet Reflection, where he might have been at a disadvantage being drawn and racing on the outer, but he put in some good late work to snatch fourth, leaving the impression 5f is too sharp for him (plenty of stamina on his dam's side).

He disappointed on his final 2YO start over 6f at Doncaster (trainer reported the loose ground didn't suit) and his form leaves him with a bit to find with some of these, but he remains unexposed at the trip and this expensively bought colt looks to have the scope to progress further as a 3YO.

Theydon Grey, 4.30 Newbury, 1pt EW @ 50-1

Theydon Grey may not have the sexy profile of some of these, but he is of some interest returned to turf and upped in trip; he's only had three starts on grass and the notebook run came on the second of them over 1m at Newmarket, where it looked to my eyes that he didn't handle the dip before running on well once meeting the rising ground despite not being hard pushed; perhaps surprisingly, he was sent to Epsom for his next run where again it looked like he wasn't handling the track too well.

He ran well on all four of his starts on the AW during the winter, which included a win at Chelmsford, and although he returns to turf 2lb higher than the HQ run, he remains unexposed on turf and the step up in trip should suit on both run style and pedigree.

Racing Knight, 5.45 Doncaster, 1pt EW @ 25-1

Racing Knight caught the eye on all three of his 2YO starts for John Quinn in 2014 over trips that were patently on the sharp side for him; he only ran three times in 2015 and the middle run at Leicester strongly suggested he should be up to winning races off marks in the 60s over distances more in keeping with his pedigree, when finishing off well over 10f and just failing by just 0.25l to reel in the winner; he again ran well on his final start for John Quinn over 12f at Pontefract, when putting in some good late work having been held up to get the trip.

It has to be said that Racing Knight's recent debut for Kevin Frost (who had a winner over hurdles at Aintree last night) didn't offer much, as the market weakness predicted for that race over 12f at Wolverhampton, and it may be a return to form will coincide with market support, but a chance is taken at a price with that pipe opener behind him and returned to turf.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 14 May 16 10:50
George I fancied Racing Knight last time agree with what you say but haven't looked at the race. Mackies I fancy Manatee Bay quite strongly and am keen on Alpha Delphini the current Betfair market looks a bit strange to me but I've got enough on already. GL with the selections today lads Happy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 May 16 10:54
A few interesting ones in that 5.45 Fl, but at the prices I've taken a chance with RK.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 May 16 11:04
Particularly Bridey's Lettuce with George Wood taking a free 7lb off. SDS was booked and there was money around for the horse on its debut for Furtado at Windsor, but he didn't get much of a run as they congregated against the stands rail, though not entirely sure he looked straightforward.

Viserion looks interesting trying 12f; and Cosmic Tigress was picked on this thread on her second run having shaped well on her Flat debut, but maybe they'd decided she was going to be a handicap project.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 May 16 19:16
It could be going better, I'll grant you that Sad

Profit / Loss since April 1st

Early odds: +19.39

    Date        Horse        Stake        Early Price        BFSP (-5%)        BFSP PL        ISP        Fin Pos        Early Odds p/l   
    1st May        Even Song        1 win        6        3.69        1.72        4        3        -1   
    1st May        Lighning Spree        1 win        13        9.57        3.07        10        2        -1   
    1st May        Mega Fortune        1 win        17        9.98        2.71        9        1        16   
    2nd May        Darrell Rivers        1 EW        17        10.5        3.56        9        2        3   
    2nd May        Chorus Of Lies        1 EW        34        57.05        11.45        29        0        -2   
    2nd May        Briardale        1 win        12        10.5        2.85        9        0        -1   
    3rd May        Hatsaway        1 win        40p R4    13        5.95        1.95        5.5        1        7.2   
    3rd May        Gurkha Friend        1 win        10p R4   5.5        3.83        1.63        3.75        3        -1   
    4th May        Avon Breeze        1 win        15        16.25        4.01        15        3        -1   
    4th May        Seve        1 win        17        25.74        7.08        21        0        -1   
    5th May        Dance Of Fire        1 win        12        12.31        4        11        3        -1   
    5th May        Energia Flavio        1 EW        41        36.15        9.15        34        0        -2   
    6th May        Platitude        1 EW        15        25.7        3.18        17        0        -2   
    6th May        Ambitious Icarus        1 EW        41        44.93        5.94        29        0        -2   
    6th May        Pandar        1 EW        10p R4    21        6.51        2.5        5.5        1        21.6   
    7th May        Mr Bossyboots        1 EW        34        45.74        9.38        34        0        -2   
    7th May        The Warrior        1 EW        34        26.35        8.79        21        0        -2   
    7th May        Sunraider        1 EW        21        39.56        6.7        26        0        -2   
    7th May        King Of Swing        1 EW        10p R4    21        13.28        4.36        12        2        3.5   
    8th May        Shepherd's Purse        1 EW        26        29.14        5.31        21        0        -2   
    9th May        Le Menege Enchante        1 EW        21        14.3        3.62        13        0        -2   
    9th May        Adventureman        1 EW        9        7.39        2.37        6.5        0        -2   
    9th May        Harmony Bay        1 EW        67        209        27.6        81        0        -2   
    10th May        Auspicion        1 EW        21        17.15        5.02        15        0        -2   
    10th May        Bulgadin Lady        1 EW        13        11.64        3.23        11        0        -2   
    10th May        Smiling Emily        1 EW        41        44.14        6.46        26        0        -2   
    11th May        Highland Acclaim        1 EW        19        24.78        5.81        21        0        -2   
    11th May        Love Island        1 EW        51        85.55        10.74        34        0        -2   
    11th May        Flowerhill Nova        1 EW        17        11.72        3.33        10        2        2.2   
    11th May        Rateel        1 EW        21        18.81        4.82        15        0        -2   
    12th May        Meadway        1 EW        29        45        8.98        29        0        -2   
    12th May        Distant Past        1 EW        34        46.71        7.46        26        0        -2   
    12th May        Muntazah        1 EW        21        19.89        4.52        17        0        -2   
    13th May        Carry Me Home        1 win        17        17.18        4.66        17        0        -1   
    13th May        Emperor Napoleon        1 win        13        14.78        4.49        13        2        -1   
    13th May        Dottie Lottie        1 win        15        24.15        5.59        15        0        -1   
    14th May        Dream Destination        1 EW        34        68.41        11.88        26        0        -2   
    14th May        Theydon Grey        1 EW        51        77.1        15.36        41        0        -2   
    14th May        Racing Knight        1 EW        26        25.47        5.28        17        0        -2   
                                                                    -2.5   
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 16 08:46
Smiling Emily, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.30 Navan

I selected this filly the other evening when she ran at Tipperary; she had one standout effort last season when going close against improver Niven at Cork, but had shown little since until shaping well from a poor draw at Gowran last month (did not finish far behind Sister Blandina who has since won at Bath); on the back of that I selected her at Tipperary at a big price despite her being 8lb out of the handicap, as I thought at the weights with Niven she could still be given a chance; as it turned the ground was quite testing (race time nearly 25 secs above standard) and having done enough from the front (it's possible she's best when waited with), she faded out of it.

She's making a quick return here which is a bit of a worry, but she's back down in grade and can run off her correct mark (which is 9lb below her standout effort), plus the return to better ground should suit. Kieren Fallon takes over in the saddle.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 16 08:48
* as it turned out...
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 15 May 16 09:05
Can't find any standouts over here today and wasn't going to bet but your write up has peaked my interest so going to have a look at this race
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 15 May 16 09:44
I've followed you in after watching that Gowran run she definitely showed something on the better ground and I like your comments regarding her h'cap mark. I've added in a couple of other outsiders (All Or Nothing back on better ground up in trip & Iyiaiangel related to Don't Bother me ran in a good maiden at Leopardstown now up in trip on better ground flyer off 46) GL today Happy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 16 10:47
You're a brave man Fl given the form I'm in and that losing run is starting to look ugly!

The good run against Niven last season came on soft ground, but that was something else at Tipperary the other night, hopefully it hasn't left its mark.

Good luck to us both.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 15 May 16 11:48
Form's temporary  CoolWink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 16 12:20
Thanks for the vote of confidence Fl Scared
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 16 12:28
A couple of Micky Hammond runners are of interest at Ripon, but they both most definitely come with risks attached!


Becky The Thatcher, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.45 Ripon

Taking a chance here on fitness and ability to handle good to firm ground, but a chance is taken at a price as Becky The Thatcher could prove better than her mark of 68.

The notebook run came over 7f at Thirsk on good to soft last September, when having been poorly positioned from a wide draw off a steady pace, she did a lot of running to get within 2l of a Godolphin odds-on shot, Lovell, who has come out this season and gone close in a decent Sandown handicap off a mark of 85; the third horse that day at Thirsk, Ronnie Baird, was placed in a Newmarket nursery on his next start off 77, and has won a heavy ground maiden this season.

Becky The Thatcher was given a mark of 75 following a third qualifying run at Beverley where she endured a wide trip (quicker ground may also have been an issue), but following a disappointing run in a Catterick maiden last backend she has been quickly dropped to 68.

There's a bit to be taken on trust here, including stamina (though pedigree and how she shaped at Thirsk would be encouraging on that front), but too soon to be dismissive given the promise shown in that notebook run last season, though it has to be said she is noticeably weak in the betting this morning.

Pabusar, 1pt win @ 11-1, 5.15 Ripon


A bit risky this as his jockey is inexperienced. Pabusar is 3lb out of the handicap here but is 10lb below his winning mark of last summer, and signs last week on his second start for Micky Hammond that he could be about to strike form, having been noted putting in some good late work from off the pace..

He was wearing a first time visor that evening but isn't today, which is a concern as it seemed to perk him up, and
it could be his day will come again when dropped back to class 6 company with the visor reapplied, but a chance is taken at a double-figure price, in a race where a decent pace to run at looks assured.
By:
nocturnal
When: 15 May 16 12:42
FL......Just thinking the sameWink

Energia Flavio.....Sad,ran ok but was hoping it would lead,whether it needs a few more off is debateable,distance is about right,left handed ok and handles sharp tracks,there were gaps in the home straight if required,no surprise to see him rock up at the owners favourite track later in the year.

3-35 ripon............Last two winners contest this fillies handicap,dominated by older brigade last few years,market leaders both 3 yr olds.

At the prices Love Island around 7/1 appeals,eyecatching run just 4 days ago at york,plenty of rowing would be an apt description.
Won this race 2 yrs ago in a quick time,similar mark,Gran Canaria Queen is a danger,the draw in 5 favours the selection,trainer has the top one too which always tempers enthusiasm.
Current price underestimates his chance imo,we will see.

Still early days gents,the notebooks need to be polished,crisp,covetted,kept under that favourite pillow,ready to be unleashedMischief

GL
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 16 12:48
Good luck with Love Island, nocturnal. I took a chance on her on this thread the other day at York at huge odds. It proved a bit hot for her that race, but she wasn't disgraced, keeping on well to not be beaten far, and hopefully that has set her up nicely for this.
By:
nocturnal
When: 15 May 16 13:15
Thanks George

Do not always get the the time to look back through,noticed we both backed The Warrior last week,never nearer than finnishing position,he is work in progress.
Not looked at the 4-45,the 3yr old h,caps are a minefield,will watch  with later on in the year in mind.

The 5-15 had a peak earlier,had a dabble on Pearl Noir from Dixon yard,has the draw to get to the rail,will need to see off the jolly who front runs too.
Pabusar is interesting,he could well pick up the pieces if they go too quick,the pilot having her 3rd ride from rp website.

Gl with both,keep knocking politely,it will openWink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 16 13:28
Pearl Noir deffo looks interesting off his mark if he's ready to roll after his break, and the stable did have a shock winner last night off a near 7 week break.

The jock on Pabusar, fair to say from what I've seen in those 2 rides, definitely needs her 7lb claim and even 10lb would have been preferable.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 May 16 17:20
Well done with Pear Noir, nocturnal
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 15 May 16 17:50
wd nocturnal looked a hard race to me nice one Cool
By:
nocturnal
When: 15 May 16 19:04
Thanks both......limpet like to the rail was the guess,despite plenty right hand he still drifted toward the centre,definately had a little lady as the 2nd had to switch.

Going forward,the 5/6f does seem to favour the higher drawn beasts on faster ground,worth keeping onside future meetings.

Love Island ran his race,the 3 yr old angle broken,the 2nd looked a shade unlucky.

MFC....Doctor Parkes entered claimer windsor tomorrow night?

George....The perratt horse mentioned earlier,entered Goodwood thursday over 7f,RM booked,watching brief.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 15 May 16 20:28
Wd Nocturnal

Dp probably not the most interesting horse at Windsor tomorrow night. Against every punting instinct I have I'll be lumping on a short one because I think Guestys horse has a LOT in hand. Don't think much of the opposition at first glance either.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 May 16 12:07
With confidence at a low ebb, I'm resorting to picking a relative shorty! Though that said, later in the week depending on entries, I'm planning on putting up a crackpot ante-post selection at an enormous price Crazy


Sonnet, 1 pt win @ 7-2, 2.50 Redcar

Sister to the Group 2 7f winner Dragon Pulse; strong in the market ahead of her debut at Wolverhampton in February, she did not find the race panning out her way as the first two controlled the race from the front, but she shaped with plenty of promise to finish fifth, putting in some good late work before being eased closed home, and leaving the impression she would benefit from the experience; that form has some substance with the third winning since, and the second horse going on to finish a close third to subsequent Chester handicap winner Ian Fleming and ahead of another subsequent handicap winner in Jordan Sport.

There's a suspicion given how she shaped at Wolverhampton that she may prefer a stiffer test in due course, but early days yet to be sure about that, and although it's a slight worry she's not been seen for nearly 3 months and is currently easy enough to back, hopefully she has gone forward for that debut experience and can be a major player in this fillies' maiden.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 16 May 16 12:41
GL with Sonnet George it'll turn soon Wink Tricky day to find one at a bigger price so quiet day for me eagerly awaiting the AW at Newcastle tomorrow LoveExcited
By:
nocturnal
When: 16 May 16 18:12
GL Mackies

6-40 Leicester

Quite like the look of the Fahey horse Bahamian C,major foul up SJB when he ran from 11 lb out of the handicap,and was never nearer 3rd beaten length and quarter in 0-95 at redcar last backend.No surprise to see the h,capper took a dim view of that,back down to 75 tonight,the claim puts him on 68,in  this 0-80,pretty much bottom weight.
Robust horse,think he will  need plenty stoking up the straight,stayed on nicely on his return 22 days ago.Arguably does not want it too quick,hoping the good ground is accurate,inside draw,if hes given his head,sound chance at the weights.

Trainer sent 3 down,hoping this is the boy,we will see.
By:
nocturnal
When: 16 May 16 21:14
VWP Mackies/FL.......Saw most of windsor,still won pulling a cartCool

Bahamian C........Poor,started at the back and stayed there,onwardsSad
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 May 16 14:26
The thread is still in profit (just) at the early odds, but fair to say things have gone a little t!ts up over the past week or so, therefore a change in policy for at least a day as I've decided to swing for the fences and indulge in a spot of the old dart throwing Scared.
Some big prices here and a few speculative ones, which come with risks attached, as you'd expect at these sort of prices.

Tamujin, 4.00 Lingfield, 1pt EW @ 16-1

Backing 36-race maidens doesn't sound like a strategy for success but Tamujin does make a little appeal at the prices, particularly with his yard in good form (winners under both codes in recent days).

He ran well in a classified stakes on his latest start at Brighton, running into an unexposed 3YO who has since gone close under a penatlty at Chepstow against another relatively unexposed one of Mark Johnston's.

Tamujin has run well the last twice he has run over today's C/D, losing out by just a nose after a sustained duel, and then not finding the race going his way on his last visit having been left with a bit to do.

Who's Shirl, 3.40 Newcastle, 1pt EW @ 25-1

And if backing 36 race maidens doesn't sound a shrewd strategy, how about 10 year old mares on their reappearance?

I would have passed on this given it's her first run of the year, but the trainer did have a filly run really well at Donny on Saturday evening at 50-1 (albeit she'd had a run this year), and a case can be made for Who's Shirl if she 's fit (and she did run well on her reappearance in 2014).

She has fallen back below her last winning mark, and two runs on Tapeta at Wolverhampton last October suggested she still has something to offer, on the first occasion putting in some good late work have been forced quite wide on the bend into the home straight, and when last seen not disgraced in a better race than today's won by big improver Supersta.

She's yet to win at this trip but seems to stay it perfectly well, and this course could suit her run style better than Wolverhampton, as long as there's not a bias towards front runners as the track beds in.

Gurhka Freind, 1pt EW @ 22-1 , 4.10 Wolverhampton

GF had been a big disappointment since winning a conditions race at Leicester early last season but the signs this year have been a lot more encouraging, looking a shade unfortunate not to win at Ayr two starts back, and last time out putting in some good late work at Catterick having found the track sharper than ideal.

The downside to his chance today is that he's up in grade and 2lb out of the handicap (a 5lb claimer has been booked to try and offset this, and he is 6lb below his peak rating), and he has to prove himself on Tapeta (likely the run was needed when he made his reappearance at Wolverhampton), but at the odds a chance is taken EW.

Fleurtille, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 4.40 Wolverhampton

Only ever had one start on a synthetic surface and didn't offer much, but she seems to handle all surfaces on turf (has won on heavy and gone close on good to firm) so may be worth chancing at a big price, with her reappearance run behind her and headgear enlisted for the first time.

She didn't shape too badly at Doncaster on her comeback run, keeping on after not having had the clearest of runs, to finish just over 4l behind a bang in form mare who has won again since.

All three of Fluertille's wins having been over 5f, but she hasn't had many chances over 6f and definitely seems to stay 6f and further, her two best RPRs coming on the old turf course at Newcastle when finishing runner-up over both 6f and 7f at the backend of 2014.

Ruby Wednesday, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.20 Nottingham

RW has to prove her effectiveness on turf but is of interest at a double figure price moving back in trip; the notebook run came over 7f at Kempton in February when finishing strongly off a steady pace and just failing to prevail; she did go on to win over 7f at Lingfield before being held twice at that distance off her revised mark.

She's a half-sister to a 12f winner in Germany, and the one time she ran over a mile (at Chelmsford) she just lost out to one who has since gone on to win a handicap off 70 (RW is also now rated 70 and is marginally joint best in on the adjusted figures in this classified event).

RW may be open to improvement at the trip on both run-style and pedigree, so despite a small concern about the surface, a chance is taken at the odds.

Ziggy Lee, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 7.10 Wetherby

Lightly raced 10 year old who makes a little appeal at big odds on his return from a long absence;  he's an old notebook horse who had caught the eye on his return from a long break at Newmarket in 2012, when looking unlucky not have finished a deal closer having been denied a clear run.
He returned from a break of over a year in 2013 when winning at Beverley, and although he failed to go well fresh off a break in 2014, he did go on to post some fair efforts in defeat.

This is clearly risky on his first run for a new trainer, and at the age of 10 who knows what ability remains, but there is a history of running well or winning off a prolonged absence, and as his mark has dropped to a potentially favourable one, a chance is taken at the price.

Inshaa, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 7.40 Wetherby

Ex-Sir Michael Stoute trained horse who caught the eye over a trip (6f) possibly on the sharp side at Wolverhampton on his debut for Michael Herrington towards the end of last year; two runs since have been realtively disappointing, but one was at Southwell (not disgraced in third) and the other at Chelmsford over 6f (track and trip might not have suited).

Inshaa is returning from a 2 month break here and the draw has not been kind, but he may have benefited from a gelding operation since last seen, and no surprise is this well bred, scopey sort, comes good for his new yard at some point.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 17 May 16 14:57
10p ew multiple is on George!

Tamujin is in my notebook. I rate the trainer especially with this sort of animal. Bit to do from that draw today I think.

Gl
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 May 16 14:59
good luck with the multiple, mackies, this time next year Rodney... Wink
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