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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
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Replies: 1,155
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Good luck with Miss Buckaroo, btw, mackies
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Not another winner for 'The Weasel'wise, surely!
Whoops, wrong thread!  |
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Play gal ran well George well done
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Miss Phillyjinks 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.05 Goodwood
Miss Phillyjinks is looking exposed but she hasn't had many chances on turf and she did catch the eye at Fairyhouse as a 2yo when with Michael Halford; she was only fourth of six on her latest start at Nottingham, but that probably wasn't a bad race for the grade with the winner a heavily backed, relatively unexposed one trained by Richard Fahey, and the David O'Meara trained runner-up having since gone on to win at Beverley. It has to be said that Miss Phillyjinks doesn't look the easiest but with the exception of her penultimate start, she has run well all her starts for her current trainer; she may ideally be best served by six furlongs but she doesn't lack pace as she showed on the AW during the winter. Silver Wings, 1pt win @ 12-1, 5.05 Goodwood A saver is had on Silver Wings who has tumbled down the weights following some poor runs on the AW and returns to turf 21lb lower than when last seen on grass. |
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GL George looks a hard race to me,I thought Dnaneer was past the post last time and is only 1lb higher. I get your saver on S W as they've been playing around a bit with the trip on the AW but is well h'capped on turf. I've been a bit under the weather so missing today out and maybe tomorrow,don't like chucking it away when I haven't put the time in.
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Words of wisdom, Fl.
SW's form was for Dave Evans, including when not disgraced in a class 2 race on the AW on his final start for him, but the wheels have come off for this yard, but he's had a break and if the pause that refreshes has worked, he's potentially a well handicapped horse, but you'd want to see some market support imo. |
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Two weeks since the last winner, Pandar seems a distant memory now
 A couple of longshots in the 8.05 Ben Rumson, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 8.05 Cork The notebook run was the obvious one at Dundalk over 10.5f in January, when finishing second, but I thought it wanted marking up given how much running he had to do from a poor position; he was sent sent off joint fav over the same C/D for his next run but it wasn't as promising and he could finish only 5th; having been absent for over 3 months, he returned recently over 10f at Clonmel and shaped well, never nearer than at the finish having been held up. The downside to his chance is that his pedigree isn't short of stamina (by Ask and dam a half-sister to a Leger runner-up) and he is shaping as though he needs further than 10f, but he looks better than his lowly rating of 49, so I'm hoping that with his recent pipe opener behind him, he can be more competitive here despite concerns about the trip. Usain, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 8.05 Cork This one might have caught quite a few eyes when it ran over a mile at Dundalk in November, not given a hard time but making some nice late headway; it was heavily punted on its next start when upped in trip to 10.5f at Dundalk, but failed to deliver having been given a more prominent ride; it ran better on its next start when finishing 3rd over the same C/D, before bombing in first time blinkers on heavy ground at 8.5f at Cork. Usain is returning from a 2 month break here with the blinkers removed and back on a better surface, and with a positive jockey booking in Declan McDonagh, a chance is taken at a price with that earlier promise not forgotten. |
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Chin up mate, you know this game inside out and the extreme ups and downs.Everyone who has dealt with you on here realizes the thought you put into this and as many have said these losing sequences are inevitable at the odds.
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As the disclaimer says in the OP, striding, tough t!ttie if the thread loses!
Cork is looking a gonner |
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GONE!
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Relieved or disappointed?
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There didn't seem any support for either of them, which might have been relevant, particularly in the case of Usain, given what's gone before with that horse, PHS.
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Experto Crede, 3.05 Haydock, 1pt EW @ 20-1 (25-1 in a place)
Experto Crede must have impressed at the breeze-ups as a 2YO given his sales price soared to 290,000 guineas, and his new connections must have been hopeful they had a useful one on their hands when he won a Newmarket maiden with a bit in hand on his debut last June; stepped up in class to Group 2 company at HQ on quicker ground with Ryan Moore riding, he disappointed with Moore reporting that the horse never travelled. The notebook run came on his reappearance at Lingfield (AW) just over three weeks ago, when it wasn't difficult to see why this sizable sort might not have handled quick ground, as he has a knee action and appears to hit the ground hard; the run itself was eyecatching in that he was held up last in a race possibly not run to suit such tactics but he was noted making some nice late headway and going on well at the finish; that form is already working out with the runner-up (who also wasn't best positioned in that Lingfield race) having since come out and won a competitive class 3 handicap at Haydock. Experto Crede had been gelded ahead of his appearance, and he looks to have the physical scope to improve as a 3YO, so with any rain potentially in his favour given his knee action, this unexposed sort is given a tentative vote in this very competitive handicap. |
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This is from Ed Walkers website (your write-up is better)
We send out three runners from Eve Lodge Stables on what is another busy Saturday for us, we have two runners at Haydock and one at Goodwood. Firstly we have Experto Crede going to post in the Class 2 Silver Bowl Handicap over a mile at Haydock, he is drawn in stall 5 of 17 and Antonio Fresu takes the ride. He is a horse who we have always liked and made an impressive start to his career when winning a Newmarket maiden on debut. After a long break he made an encouraging comeback run at Lingfield last time which should put him spot on for this and we are hopeful of a big run stepping up in trip. |
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Should've added a GL I'm way behind after a brief (thankfully) illness,just looking at the race now
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Cheers for the quote, Fl, and good to hear you're feeling better.
Actually my write-up could have been better, as I should have added that Experto Crede is now 10lb better off with Shaiyem, because whereas EC has been dropped 2lb for Lingfield, Shaiyem has gone up 8lb since. |
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Without getting too much into it there's too many of these which I've had down as potential good h'cappers and I'd find it hard to split them,you've definitely got the darkest one though was only 9-1 for the G2 July stakes.
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In reference to Experto Crede I am about 10 miles from Haydock as the bird flies and it has been persistently tipping it down all morning with some biblical like assaults at times.
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Cheers O1.
I should say that he has yet to race on soft ground, so has to prove it suits, but looking at his action at Lingfield, he's going to appreciate some juice in the ground imo, and could explain why he ran below expectations on quick ground at HQ. |
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Shepherd's Purse, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.55 Curragh
I selected Shepherd's Purse when he ran at Leopardstown a couple of weeks back and I'm giving him another chance here; he'd been quite a useful 2YO ( ended up rated 108) and had possibly been unlucky not to win a Group 3 over today's C/D; he didn't really go on as a 3YO, though he wasn't beaten far in a Group 3 at Leopardstown when not getting the clearest of runs up the inside rail. He had been gelded ahead of his return this season and on the face of it he didn't offer much on his handicap debut (rated 95) and reappearance over 7f at Leopardstown, but the likely front-runner had to be withdrawn and the race was a bit messy, with those ridden prominently dominating, while Shepherd's Purse pulled hard off a steady pace and was caught wide, before ultimately shaping like the run was needed. Shepherd's Purse still has a bit to prove in terms of what ability remains, but the return to sprinting could be in his favour, and with that pipe-opener behind him, a better showing wouldn't surprise. |
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Speaking of Ed Walker, although the favourite looks a tough nut to cracking in the Temple I would not be shocked to see a big run from Aeolus in these conditions. I thought he was unlucky not to win on his side in the Palace House and got going a bit too late in the Abernant. Decent place bet at the prices.
Other than that I'm struggling for anything at a reasonable price today. Gl with yours |
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Good luck with Aeolus, mackies
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Emperor Napoleon 1pt win @ 6-1, 1.55 Haydock
Rainbow Dreamer 1pt win @ 11-1, 1.55 Haydock I selected Emperor Napoleon last week having noted him at Kempton on his second start, and then at Bath where he did well to finish as close as he did given how wide and freely he raced; unfortunately for me, he ran into Primitivo at Newbury, who has since bolted up at Sandown and was clearly well ahead of his mark, but Emperor Napoleon did beat the rest of them comfortably enough and a 4lb rise looks fair; he can race keenly, which would be a concern in a small field. I have to have a saver on Rainbow Dreamer at a double-figure price given he ran in that Newbury race last week and ran well to finish third; he's entitled to come on for that run, is 4lb better off with EN, and he clearly handles a soft surface well, so the more rain the better for him. |
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My final selection this afternoon
Nibras Bounty, 1pt win @ 11-1, 1.50 Newmarket This could be quite a hot little novice with recent Godolphin acquisition Deningy (who looked a little unfortunate not to win at Ascot on debut) and a well backed debutant of Hugo's Palmer's in opposition, but at a double-figure price a chance is taken on Nibras Bounty, who caught the eye on his recent debut at Salisbury. The Salisbury race wasn't as strong as this one on paper, but Nibras Bounty, who holds a Group 2 entry, was a heavily punted 11-10 fav, but fair to say the race didn't go his way, being squeezed out around 2f out and losing his chance before catching the eye with his finishing effort. The step up in trip to 6f should be in his favour on that evidence and this sizable sort should come on plenty for that first experience, so a chance is taken against some potentially useful opposition. |
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3:05pm - Experto Crede (IRE)
Declared: Sat 21 May 1:17pm Reason: Going I'm stunned by that! At least try him once on it, he may be by Exceed and Excel, but he's out of a Pivotal mare, and he way he thumps the ground suggests to me he'd be fine on it |
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Another boost for the Lingfield form of Experto Crede with Barley Sugar just being touched off there, the first 2 clear.
Presumably the horse was at the track, the race is cutting up, it's got no weight on its back, why not just give it a go? Unless they've worked the horse on soft and know it's useless on that ground, it is an absolutely baffling decision imo to pull it out. |
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WD with Nibras George
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Cheers PHS, hefty rule 4, but given the form I'm in I'll take it.
Red Verdon held a Listed entry at Goodwood, I should have taken the hint Shepherds Purse was shocking, but suppose I'll have to give him another chance on faster ground |
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WD with Nibras Bounty George sorry not up to date too much time whinging etc but class is permanent
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Cheers Fl, I'd rather the fav had run, was a looking a bit iffy down at the start temperament wise.
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Stone Mountain, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.10 Curragh
Stone Mountain is of interest stepping up in trip to 10f on both run style and pedigree; he had shaped as though in need of a greater test during the winter at Dundalk over 7f prior to winning over one mile at that venue; unexposed on turf, he caught the eye on his latest start over one mile at the Curragh, when trying to make headway up the stands' rail but being denied a clear run. He is closely related to winning stayers on both the Flat and over jumps, as well as the useful Group 2 Flat / Grade 3 hurdles winner Hebridean. Mega Fortune, 1pt win @ 8-1, 4.10 Curragh A saver is had on Mega Fortune who was one of the thread's rare winners when bolting up earlier this month at Sligo, having prevously caught the eye at both Dundalk and Navan; he has been hit with a 14lb rise for that facile success, but there could well be more to come from this scopey sort and softening ground will be no problem to him. |
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GEORGE.B wd
... gl tomorrow .... |
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Cheers Virgin, I gonna need it!
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Radiantly, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 1.55 Curragh
This is a crackpot selection given she's held on form by a few of these and her best hope is probably a place, but it wouldn't surprise it she ran better than market expectations; the notebook run came at the Curragh last September in a Group 3 over 7f when keeping on strongly to be beaten only a length at the finish and shaping like a stiffer test would suit; two runs this season in 1000 Guineas trials at Leopardstown have been fairly promising, finishing fourth behind Jet Setting over 7f when probably in need of the run, and last time out over a mile, staying on well for second, although no match for the winner, behind Now Or Never. Radiantly is shaping like she needs to go further than a mile, but with the ground looking on the soft side at the Curragh based on Saturday's evidence, hopefully a stiffer test at the trip will enable her to be more competitive and press for a place at least. Her trainer was in tremendous form on Saturday with 2 winners from 2 runners on the Curragh card. |
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Ante-post Selection: The Oaks, 3rd June
Even Song, 2pts EW @ 12-1 With the ground having softened at the Curragh, the prospect of Minding having a harder race than is ideal today in the Irish 1000 guineas with the Oaks just 12 days away, has prompted me into an ante-post pick for the race. Of course what may happen is Minding bolts up today and shortens even further for the Oaks, or the 'lads' decide not to run any of their other main contenders against Minding at Epsom. The one I like is Even Song, who I was impressed with when she won at Leopardstown last backend; relative to the second and third that day who had raced round the inner from low draws, Even Song had a relatively tough trip round the outer and had to do a lot of running just to reach the leaders, but despite having worked hard to get there, she impressed with how she then drew clear for a decisive victory. I selected her when she reappeared in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket, but the race did not go her way having been held up off a steady pace and then finding her path blocked on more than one occasion before catching the eye with her finishing effort. It's noticeable that she has been relatively prominent in the betting for the Oaks despite her claims not being as pressing as some of her stablemates, but perhaps that's not surprising given this half-sister to St Leger heroine Simple Verse looks sure to improve for going further. Who knows what will happen over the next two weeks and the 'lads' may decide not to run her against Minding at Epsom should all be fit and well to go, but she looks a filly who potentially has a lot more to offer as she steps up in trip, so hopefully she'll be allowed to take her chance. |
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GL with radiantly George and you make a good case for E S in the Oaks
A no bet day for me had backed Arleccinos Rock last time when NR/abandoned can't remember properly but he was going to be my only bet until the price went just hope he doesn't win now  |
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E S is a bit risky for a couple of reasons, Fl, the main reason being if she even gets there, but on the slim chance Minding doesn't handle the softer ground and gets turned over today, thought I'd better move now!
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Best Tamayuz, 1 pt EW @ 16-1, 6.05 Nottingham
Best Tamayuz had appeared to be a Fibresand specialist with three wins at Southwell and having offered little on turf, but his run in the Silver Cambridgeshire over 9f at Newmarket last September strongly suggested that he is capable of winning on turf; restrained that day to get the trip, he raced keenly under restraint and had a lot to do to reach the leaders, but he stayed on strongly to finish fourth, despite not getting the clearest of runs. Two turf runs since and some below par runs at Southwell have seen his mark has fall to 60, which is 9lb below the mark he ran off at Newmarket; clearly Best Tamayuz has to prove he still has something to offer, but he's been given a 7 week break since last seen and it's worth noting two of his stablemates returned from similar breaks last weekend and won. If Best Tamayuz has been restored back to form then the Newmarket run makes him look a well handicapped horse. |
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GL with B T George as you say could be well h'capped on turf.
Like the reasoning with the yard coming into form as I bet a few of his that ran badly over the winter |
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I hope it dries out Fl, cuz the HQ run was on good, whereas the two poor turf runs since at Donny were on softer.
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