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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook

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Replies: 1,155
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 16 11:28
mackies, I'd like to think that being by Teofilio, a stiffer test at the trip can only suit him.

And I know Duncan Idaho will be thoroughly impressed with this - as MBB seems to the love the Poly', he's going to love the Ascot straight track LaughMischiefWink
By:
luckyme
When: 07 May 16 11:35
George, check your pm.
By:
go-all-in
When: 07 May 16 12:05
Well done on the winner yesterday George, I see you beat SP by a fraction Laugh

I missed it personally as the 20/1 had turned into 10/1 by the time I had a chance to try to back it. Kicking myself Cry

Superb selection though, keep up the good work.
By:
nocturnal
When: 07 May 16 12:16
George Cool

Muskrat...."could not hold im guv"

PC...... "ok not to worry danny"

Muskrat....."Lucky the big screen was there"

PC...... "yes,come to think of it,those two yearlings that need breaking in,minus saddle,I think we will call them Pandar 2 and Pandar 3,

something to think about whilst your nads are in the ice bath"
By:
mackies-fc
When: 07 May 16 15:25
A few positives for Sunrise Dance at Thirsk this evening I think. She might need this, but is well handicapped, well drawn, trainer is flying and has conditions to suit.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 16 15:32
Sorry you missed the price go-all-in Cry

nocturnal, judging by the weight of the money, one suspects winning last night was all that mattered!

Good luck with SD, mackies
By:
go-all-in
When: 07 May 16 18:15
All your fault I missed the price George, I'm sure it was this thread that caused the gamble, not the stable money Laugh
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 07 May 16 18:42
bad luck George nice place tho
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 16 18:45
Ta, he stayed on really well and looked strong at the finish, but unfortunately didn't quite reach the winner.

Oh well, back down to earth with a bump after yesterday.

There's always tomorrow...

The Warrior made up a lot of ground far side and I optimistically thought he might have got 5th, but nope, only 8th Cry
By:
go-all-in
When: 07 May 16 18:46
Yeah hard lines / well played, think he might need a shade further or a stiffer track.

Had it e/w so thanks for sharing.
By:
twizzle22
When: 07 May 16 18:49
Sunrise down to 8/1 with 365..still 16s with P/P
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 16 18:51
I was worried about the drying ground but the times are suggesting it is as they're describing it and maybe more good to soft.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 07 May 16 19:07
ul George with K O S the little sod wouldn't go a yard early doors and should have won imo Sad.Am a bit p o'd B G C didn't run given the slow ground and huge draw bias Crazy,Monday for me now might go to Musselburgh for a day out before York starts on Wednesday,gl tomorrow if you're having a go at the irish cards.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 16 19:14
Cheers Fl, and good luck next week.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 07 May 16 21:21
P/L since April 1st

Early odds: +52.19
BFSP (after 5% commission): +5.71
ISP: -8.08

    Date        Horse        Stake        Early Price        BFSP (-5%)        BFSP PL        ISP        Fin Pos        Early Odds p/l        BFSP p/l        ISP p/l   
    1st May        Even Song        1 win        6        3.69        1.72        4        3        -1        -1        -1   
    1st May        Lighning Spree        1 win        13        9.57        3.07        10        2        -1        -1        -1   
    1st May        Mega Fortune        1 win        17        9.98        2.71        9        1        16        8.98        8   
    2nd May        Darrell Rivers        1 EW        17        10.5        3.56        9        2        3        1.56        1   
    2nd May        Chorus Of Lies        1 EW        34        57.05        11.45        29        0        -2        -2        -2   
    2nd May        Briardale        1 win        12        10.5        2.85        9        0        -1        -1        -1   
    3rd May        Hatsaway        1 win        40p R4    13        5.95        1.95        5.5        1        7.2        4.95        4.5   
    3rd May        Gurkha Friend        1 win        10p R4   5.5        3.83        1.63        3.75        3        -1        -1        -1   
    4th May        Avon Breeze        1 win        15        16.25        4.01        15        3        -1        -1        -1   
    4th May        Seve        1 win        17        25.74        7.08        21        0        -1        -1        -1   
    5th May        Dance Of Fire        1 win        12        12.31        4        11        3        -1        -1        -1   
    5th May        Energia Flavio        1 EW        41        36.15        9.15        34        0        -2        -2        -2   
    6th May        Platitude        1 EW        15        25.7        3.18        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    6th May        Ambitious Icarus        1 EW        41        44.93        5.94        29        0        -2        -2        -2   
    6th May        Pandar        1 EW        10p R4    21        6.51        2.5        5.5        1        21.6        7.01        5.4   
    7th May        Mr Bossyboots        1 EW        34        45.74        9.38        34        0        -2        -2        -2   
    7th May        The Warrior        1 EW        34        26.35        8.79        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    7th May        Sunraider        1 EW        21        39.56        6.7        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    7th May        King Of Swing        1 EW        10p R4    21        13.28        4.36        12        2        3.5        2.36        1.75   
                                                                    30.3        3.86        -0.35   
By:
mackies-fc
When: 08 May 16 07:46
Unlucky with KOS George

SD probably needed the run despite showing her customary dash

A very good week for the thread. Well done

By the way, all the talk of David Loughnane - Royal Hunt Cup winner in the yard in the shape of Earth Drummer?
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 08 May 16 12:00
He was certainly an eyecatcher mackies and a liking for that straight track counts for plenty.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 08 May 16 12:25
Shepherd's Purse, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.10 Leopardstown

This is speculative in that I'm guessing about fitness and just what the horse has left to offer, but in the hope he has benefited from a gelding operation and he finds life easier in handicap company, a chance is taken at big odds.

Shepherd's Purse was a really promising 2YO, impressing when winning on his debut at the Curragh over 6f, and then looking unfortunate not to have gone close in a Group 3 over the same C/D having been denied a clear run when seemingly going well; a tilt at the Racing Post Trophy was suggested by his trainer, but the only other run of his juvenile year came in a Group 2 at Maisons-laffitte where the very soft ground might not have suited.

His 3YO campaign was essentially a disappointment, though he wasn't disgraced on the figures on a couple of occasions, including over today's C/D in a Group 3 when only beaten 1.5l into 5th.

He returns as a 4YO having been gelded and with a bit to prove, but he's in calmer waters here, and having been rated 108 at the end of his 2YO season, he contests his first handicap off a mark of 95.

It should be said that his rating will probably get him into more valuable handicaps than this one, so given he's very weak in the betting here, it could be connections are eyeing something up further down the line, if they have been able to restore him back to something like his 2YO best.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 08:36
Le Menege Enchante, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.00 Wolverhampton

Bit of a cliff horse this one as this is the third time he has been selected on this thread, but he's given another chance at the prices because he remains unexposed at the trip having given the impression previously that he could improve for it (possible to excuse previous attempts at the distance), and when he was selected the last time he ran over this C/D, it looked like he would have gone close to winning (imo) but for meeting with significant interference in the straight.

His mark has dropped back to 65, which he won off over 5f at this course back in December, so no complaints from a rating point of view, but what is a concern is his tendency to hang left and that was evident again when he ran at Nottingham on his latest start.


Adventurman 1pt EW @ 8-1, 3.40 Musselburgh

Some promise in Ireland for Eddie Lynam without managing to win, and caught the eye on his debut for Ruth Carr over today's C/D last September when tanking through the race but not getting a clear run in the straight before finishing third.

He hasn't built on that promise since, but possible the ground / track haven't always suited and of definite interest back on quick ground here, being 9lb below that eyecatching run over C/D and 19lb below his opening Irish mark.


Harmony Bay, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 4.00 Wolverhamton


Harmony Bay won a weak maiden over 6f at Lingfield on her second start last summer and it's quite possible she was given too high a mark on the back of it as she has failed to be competitive in four handicaps since, but she's of a little interest today at huge odds stepping up in trip to a stretch mile.

The notebook run came on turf at Leicester over 6f on good-to-soft ground last September, when I was left with the impression she was worth a try over further having got outpaced before staying on again and was seemingly going on well at the finish.

Her next run was a bit of a shocker, finishing last of 13 and beaten 20l over 7f at Lingfield last November; given a 6 month break after, she returned over the same C/D just under 3 weeks ago and shaped OK in a race where it wasn't easy to come from off the pace, particularly as she was caught wide into the straight, but she kept on well enough, again leaving the impression a step up in trip could suit.

Harmony Bay has to prove herself on Tapeta, has a wide draw to overcome (which is a concern as she can be keen), and has an inexperienced jockey on board who has only recently ridden his first winner, but a chance is taken at massive odds with her recent comeback behind her and her mark 11lb below her initial rating, in the hope that a step in trip will prove beneficial.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 09 May 16 08:40
I'm with you on Adventureman you're write up echoes my opinion,Shamaheart could be the danger back on quick ground gl
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 09:38
I was going to pick him last time before the ground put me off, Fl.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 09:40
Love The Feeling, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 7.10 Roscommon

This mare is 2lb out of the handicap and she could do with the ground continuing to dry out, but this winner over hurdles is of a little interest at a price stepping up in trip again on the Flat; she's been in the notebook since April last season when she caught my eye over 12f at Gowran Park, having met with interference on the bend into the straight before keeping on well into 4th despite racing on the inside part of the track which was possibly not the place to be on the day.
She was a much more obvious eyecatcher later that month on her next start at Limerick over 11.5f when badly hampered before keeping on strongly into 3rd.

Love The Feeling has been lightly raced since but two runs this season haven't been without hope, shaping well enough when 5th of 13 over 10.f at Dundalk, and then running OK on ground that wouldn't have suited behind her more strongly fancied stablemate over 9.5f at Gowran.

This may prove a little hot for her, especially on ground less than ideal, but I suspect she's going to come good at some point this season.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 09 May 16 10:01
Spot on with Adventureman imo George. I'd have liked to seen a bit more than he showed last time though, even though the ground was likely against him.

The real interest today would be your cliff horse. On the last aw run I felt he'd have gone close with a clear run but I really think Martin Lane will be able to get more from this horse than any of the jockeys who have ridden him so far.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 10:36
Here's hoping mackies. I didn't notice him hanging left on that occasion, but I noted it at the top of the tread when I first picked him, and I thought it was much more evident at Nottingham last time, but if he can manage to run in a straight line, then he does look over-priced imo.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 09 May 16 10:40
I think there might be a case at a big price for Let Right be Done in the 3.10 Muss. Hes caught me eye on numerous occasions but his reappearance was quite encouraging given how his trainers runners tend to progress with racing. He was keen throughout and first off the bridle but he was in contention at the furlong pole until stopping late on, only beaten 4 lengths but of the 4 that have beaten him I consider 3 to be very well handicapped.

He has front run before now and whilst I'd expect him to give best to Ellall in that respect today he's better drawn than Ellall and should get a nice position in a race that is not chock full of pace. His better runs have been on easier ground than today but I feel he's improved and there is more to come - his younger half brother has looked fairly useful over the winter.

Most importantly, I can find good reasons in the profiles of the market leaders to oppose them today.

Gl everyone
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 10:47
Good luck with LRBD mackies. I see the fourth horse that day was Lightning Spree and I remember what happened the next time at Hamilton Cry
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 11:44
Love The Feeling a NR
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 15:13
Le Menege Enchante didn't hang left today, but he did blow the break before eventually running on into 5th when they were stopping up ahead.

I think I'll pass next time Sad
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 16:13
A disappointing day for the thread, and just to rub salt into the wound, Refulgence, who was selected on this thread the last time she ran, finishes second at 25-1 while the selection finishes last after going round the houses from a wide draw.

The bottom line is 6 points lost on the day Sad
By:
go-all-in
When: 09 May 16 19:56
Hard lines George. Always going to be plenty of days with no returns with the prices you're playing.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 09 May 16 21:07
I was a bit disappointed with the finishing effort of Adventureman,when they broke I was sure he'd be at least placed and Carr's other 2 both ran and finished well he might have had an issue. I caught the tail end of Pandar's race don't know if it was the track or maybe the quick return but your comment about Friday being the one that mattered seems spot on.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 21:46
Indeed go-all-in, there's always tomorrow.

There seemed no excuses in the run for Adventurman, Fl, he was nicely placed just in behind the pace on the rail, disappointing, and unless you know there was something amiss, hard to support him again after that.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 09 May 16 23:53
Auspicion, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.30 Beverley

I selected this horse when he ran at Ripon 17 days ago.

He was formerly trained by William Haggas, for whom he didn't really go on for after early promise, and he was sold to Tom Tate for 22,000 gns; gelded ahead of his stable debut, I thought his first run for Tate at Wolverhampton wasn't without hope - quite keen without any cover early, he was steadied back to the rear of the field before keeping on in the straight without being given a hard time.

He'd been absent for over 50 days when he next appeared at Ripon, and I thought he shaped well again, in with a chance of place until finding his path blocked around 1f and that did for him, fading as though the run was needed.

He's a well handicapped horse if Tom Tate can restore him back to form, being 11lb below the mark he was on when not beaten far in a race which worked out tremendously well at Musselburgh last June.

Auspicion has been quite keen in his two starts for Tate so far, so could do with settling better, but in the hope the Ripon run has taken the fizz out of him and brought him on fitness-wise, he gets the vote at decent odds, from the inside draw.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 10 May 16 09:51
He's definitely an interesting type George he's got some good names on his form cv that's for sure especially the race you mention. The owner is a former betting shop manager turned arber in the early Betfair days who bought well (got Prince Of Johanne for £40000) doubt he's still arbing now hadn't heard of him for years until I saw him on tv with P O J.
Don't want to say too much as he may guess who I am but I told him I fancied Rooster Booster for the Champion Hurdle and he told me it had no chance and was just a h'capper,to which I said there are no genuine G1 hurdlers around as the best broke down in last years race (Valiramix). He thought I was a know nowt and was a bit arrogant but hey ho.
gl with Auspicion if they can get to settle as you say he's well in
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 May 16 11:17
Cheers Fl, interesting to see how he progresses (or regresses) for Tate given what he achieved with POJ, though it may be expecting a bit much for lightning to strike twice!
By:
stridingedge
When: 10 May 16 15:20
this one not been settling too well George recently?
By:
stridingedge
When: 10 May 16 15:21
Whoops sorry only just seen you said this.

like the class drop angle with tate

gl Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 May 16 15:44
He looked quite laboured there, striding, disappointing. Another one I can remove from the notebook.
By:
stridingedge
When: 10 May 16 15:56
settle dbetter never any chance from that stall off the pace, I thought it looked to make ground a couple of times but never had a clear path and in the end horse and jock just gave up and coasted home.

Always watch everything again later, perhaps i am giving it too positive a spin there
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 May 16 16:30
Cheers striding, I'll have another look back later but my first impressions were negative!
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