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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook

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By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 09:26
Well done again with your nap yesterday, pumphol, you're on fire!
By:
pumphol.
When: 03 May 16 10:28
Many thanks George, not too shabby yourself Happy

Spent quite a while on two Catterick races yesterday, cut your 7.55 down to four which on the face of it was not much good but Gurkha Friend was one of them, trainer flying, should go on the ground & any drying out in its favour, one for value would have been Musaaid for me at 16/1 BUT the grounds a tad too soft for it imo, if this race was in 48 hours that would have  probably been my selection.
My main bet today was going to be in the 7.25 but cat basically let out of the bag as prices went up, Balmusette is possibly 10lb well in here but no price to be getting involved sadly, though Gurkha & Balmusette is around a 16/1 double & that must be worth a small investment.

Wish you the best of luck today.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 03 May 16 13:23
George ground changed back at Brighton Good/G-f in places.Agree with the prospects of Gurkha Friend but found the race a bit tricky.pumphol Balmusette should really win imo managed to get a bit on early but the yard is not my favourite thesedays,tend to run great or terrible usually in multiple triers/nons but they have a first time h'cap chaser in the last at Sedgefield Teescomponent Max for potential double gl all
By:
mackies-fc
When: 03 May 16 13:55
Good luck today gents

That 7.25 is full of intrigue. It's a no bet race for me, one I will be watching carefully is Nonno Giulio on his debut for David Loughnane. It's the sort of horse that David O Meara has excelled with, and I wonder if his talents have rubbed off on Loughnane.


Hit the lights has drifted to a very backable price in the 8.25 though. On the form of either two wins this season, with this race very likely to be run to suit, you'd have to fancy him to be bang there.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 14:01
Cheers pumphol, and good luck with the double.

I see Deluxe has been well backed, Fatlad. Good luck with your picks today.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 14:04
mackies, I'm don't think DL was assistant to DO'M, but I could be wrong! Good luck with HTL.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 03 May 16 14:09
Ive been under the assumption he was George. I don't know why to be honest though!
By:
mackies-fc
When: 03 May 16 14:12
Ah now I know why. He's operating from his old yard.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 03 May 16 15:50
Please ignore my earlier misinformation regarding the ground I was quoting the Racing Post Live reporter guy,really I should know better
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 03 May 16 16:00
WD George I'm more hopeful for Deluxe now Cool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 16:04
Cheers FL, unfortunately there's chunky rule 4 to come out of that 12-1.

Looks like they've landed a right touch there.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 03 May 16 16:08
Still works out fine I'd take one of those every day! I'm hoping they've backed them both the owner is now 4/10 at Brighton in the last 5 years with a + LS. He owned that Green Earth who they landed a couple of touches with,finger crossed
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 16:14
Good luck with Deluxe, FL. Maybe they've got the double in betting shops up and down the country Wink
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 16:17
Nearly forgot, well done nocturnal!
By:
mackies-fc
When: 03 May 16 16:22
Nice work fellas
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 16:58
Cheers mackies

Unlucky FL, ran well
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 03 May 16 17:01
I think it might be one of those horses that travels at any trip but can't win,today was it's day I think after the first one went in
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 03 May 16 17:09
Titus with a sheepskin noseband (another thing we should know about) they're taking baby steps with him but a more straightforward track and cp's next for me also I'd like to see him back at 6f
By:
nocturnal
When: 03 May 16 23:49
VWP George........I,m with FL here,take the R4 anyday,beggars and all that.

TS looked to be given another boston job,not sure he will go down much lower,straight track and maybe allowed his head,he is indeed work in progress.

Like the look of Gabriels King in the cup,fine race last year on only his 2nd start for the yard,not the jockeys finest hour either.The draw not ideal,but I think they learnt later in the year,he has a telling turn of foot ridden patiently.G/S fine,if they go a good gallop he could certainly outrun his price.

Lexis Hero in the next,will need the gaps,won a tad cosily off 87 in last years renewal,this looks harder,handicapped to run a big race if fit enough.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 04 May 16 09:00
Cheers nocturnal, and good luck with the Fahey pair.

All I want to see for Titus Secret is a clear run; three times she's ridden him, three times she's run into trouble. If she's turning into the straight in last place, just keep it simple imo and angle him to the outer. He looks a big awkward unit who isn't agile enough to get himself out of trouble or be pulled around.

It looked like he didn't handle the track too well yesterday, but I don't want to keep making excuses for him.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 04 May 16 10:53
Gl nocturnal

Quite like Mukaynis in the sprint handicap but would be concerned he might miss it slightly at the start. The form of his Kempton return (drawn wide and did a little bit much early on) has worked out quite nicely and I think he might have a better race than this in him this year. The blinkers have transformed him.

I did quite like Heartbreak City in the Chester cup but the drying ground won't help his chances.

Gl today
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 04 May 16 11:20
I agree that the blinkers have transformed Mukaynis Mackies he'd be one of a few with a shout.I was against Growl (don't think he's got enough pace) & I wasn't convinced Roudee had enough boot on recent evidence (think he's better at 6f).Fwiw on a quiet day for me I liked Kimberella (early prices were too big),Mukaynis and Lexington Place could be a frame hitter or fall in in front if they go too quick done little wins fc's/tc's.Good luck today with all I fancy a couple tomorrow hopefully at some better  prices Happy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 04 May 16 11:39
This 3.45 is proving popular cuz after struggling to find a pick for today, I decided to take a couple against the field at the prices. Good luck with your choices, mackies & FL. I think we've now got most the field covered between us Wink

Seve, 1pt win @ 16-1, 3.45 Chester

The stable would appear to have a more obvious contender in Roudee, but Seve is of a little interest from a potentially helpful draw at a double figure price; the race he won at Wolverhampton in December worked out quite well with the next four home all winning not long after, and although he was slightly disappointing on his next two starts in higher grades, he has been given a break since and no surprise if he has been primed for this from a stable which targets this meeting.
Seve did win here on his debut as a 2YO and wasn't disgraced on his only other visit to the track.

Avon Breeze, 1pt win @ 14-1, 3.45 Chester

The drop back in trip round here on drying ground is an obvious concern, but she looked in such good nick when winning at Ripon recently that a chance is taken at a double figure price for the minimum stake; she can miss the break and get behind, but that wasn't the case at Ripon, where she moved well just in behind the pace before leading inside the final furlong and then holding the late challenge from a Fahey closer.

She's worse off at the weights with Growl (who the wise guys are all over) and Kimberella (whose effort can perhaps be marked up as he did a solo up the far rail), but in the hope that Paul Quinn can get the mare out and get a good position just in behind the pace from trap 6, she gets a tentative vote.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 04 May 16 11:41
I think we've now got most the field covered between us Wink  Laugh
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 04 May 16 15:55
Well done with Kimberella, FL.

It wasn't pretty viewing for anyone on Mukaynis, unlucky mackies Sad
By:
mackies-fc
When: 04 May 16 15:56
Well done FL

Counting the money 1f out George!
Pretty sure I'll get it back on that one though. Avon Breeze ran very well.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 04 May 16 16:06
Cheers I haven't seen it yet but judging by the comments a nightmare for Mukaynis Sad
By:
stridingedge
When: 04 May 16 16:12
Yours was always on the snaff Fatlad as long as it didn't get blocked it was always the worthy winner there.

wd
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 04 May 16 16:18
Cheers SE Still waiting for the replays to come through as I've been out,couldn't put Kimberella on the other thread as prices were gone quickly so tried to top it up with fc's/tc's
By:
nocturnal
When: 05 May 16 00:36
Good shout FL

Mackies...no run whatsoeverCry,not given up just yet on Lexis off current mark.

Gabriels King,just out the frame,he saw plenty of chester.

Onwards
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 05 May 16 04:15
Cheers Nocturnal,think Mukaynis may have lost his chance at the start despite not getting a run late on.Kimberella broke about 3l in front of Mukaynis and travelled strongly enough to get first crack on the inside at Roudee.It's amazing when the ground's not too slow how much the draw affects this place not just an advantage to front runners Avon Breeze was tracked back about 2l behind Mukaynis on the inside yet got third.Confessional ran a big race race from 15 and though he's never been one to mad with win wise has returned in good form. Rated 87 now his next race could be the 12K at Thirsk in 9 days time then Musselburgh will probably be the target.I've got a slight concern that off his mark now they might keep him for the consolation as he'd probably have to win 2 to get into the biggy (3rd @ 25/1 last year).
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 05 May 16 13:53
Dance Of Fire, 1pt win @ 11-1, 5.25 Chester

Dance Of Fire appeals as a horse who may still have some improvement left in him; it had seemed that he wasn't progressing last season following a good run on his reappearance, and he wasn't seen again after July, but following a 6 month break and a gelding operation, he has returned this year on the AW in fine form, winning a class 2 handicap at Chelmsford, and perhaps being a little unfortunate on his latest start in a class 2 handicap at Kempton won by subsequent Listed winner Our Channel, having been denied a clear run in the straight when seemingly having plenty of running left in him.

The question is will he be in the same form back on turf? Well given he's 1lb below his peak turf rating of 2015 and his earlier form suggests he's just as effective on grass, hopefully the answer is yes.

He can be quite keen in his races, which may be an issue returning fresh from a 2 month break with cheekpieces reapplied, but in the hope David Probert can get him reasonably switched off from a decent draw, a chance is taken at a double figure price.

Energia Flavio, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 5.25 Chester

This is quite speculative, but Energia Flavio is of a little interest at big odds; he failed to win for Marco Botti having previously won twice in Brazil, but he ran some fair races off marks in the 90s on the AW at distances up to 9.5f, while leaving the impression on occasions that a slightly stiffer test might have suited.
He was tried over today's C/D of 10.5f last July but weakened out of it having possibly done too much early on.

Energia Flavio ended his time with Marco Botti with just a fair third over 8.5f at Windsor last August, and wasn't seen again until March when making his debut for Richard Fahey; two runs for his new stable haven't offered much, but doubt heavy ground would have suited last time and he may have needed his reappearance at Wolverhampton.

He's down in the weights and fitness should not be an issue now, and although he's very much the stable second string on jockey bookings, a better showing wouldn't surprise at a meeting his owner likes to target.
By:
luckyme
When: 05 May 16 14:31
George,

Chester     17:25     Dance Of Fire           Dance Of Fire is nicely drawn, he has got some solid form on the all weather off this kind of mark and I can see him going well. He'll need a little luck in running, but he's certainly got the ability to run close. I.Balding
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 05 May 16 14:35
Thanks luckyme, I hope Mr Balding is right!
By:
mackies-fc
When: 05 May 16 15:03
Gl George

Had a small play ew on Outback Blue in the 4.55. Far from confident about its chances but think there is a bit of room in its mark
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 05 May 16 15:21
Good luck today lads plenty of opportunities Friday and hopefully Saturday,I fancy a few tomorrow though not sure if there'll be any standouts pricewise
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 05 May 16 15:53
Good luck mackies & FL
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 05 May 16 17:33
Turning in, I thought one would win and the other would place Sad

1.5 IR for Dance Of Fire and the other one ended up 5th.

There's always tomorrow...
By:
go-all-in
When: 05 May 16 18:51
Very hard lines that George, I didn't see the race but was refreshing the market in running and I'm a bit baffled that you didn't make a profit on it. My eyes were lighting up when Dance of Fire was really short and the outsider trading at about 4.0 Cry
By:
Keefter
When: 05 May 16 18:58
good luck finding one from your notebook when theres a single meeting out of 5 to pick from.
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