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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook

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Replies: 1,155
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 25 Apr 16 08:38
I'm concerned about him racing with the choke out, Fatlad. The way he raced at Hamilton and how they've restrained him previously suggests there is an issue there, but hopefully from trap 1 he can get a bit of cover.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 25 Apr 16 08:58
Agree George but on the plus side the Donny run might have helped him on that score.Found it hard to find a standout price wise today though I've had a few bets.I had been waiting to back Exotic Guest on quick ground but the double figures were quickly taken.All My Love's form looks red hot now (730 Win) but is another that was rolled early.That Little Belter can't run until it passes a stalls test so nr today.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Apr 16 08:04
Titus Secret, 3.30 Wolverhampton, 1pt EW @ 20-1

Lowly-rated but unexposed gelding who caught the eye on his latest start over C/D 19 days ago when denied a clear run in the straight, and while it's hard to be sure where he would have finished, it's fair to say he was better than the bare result; that race is working out nicely with the second and fourth having won since (albeit on turf), and the winner Dream Ally (who reopposes here on 7lb worse terms, though this is offset by apprentice's claim) having run creditably off a 6lb higher mark since (Titus Secret was 1lb out of the handicap last time).

Titus Secret looks a big unit and it has to be said he didn't look the easiest of conveyances last time at Wolverhampton, but that might just have been down to his relative inexperience, and as he was returning from an eight month break, he's entitled to come on for the run.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Apr 16 08:29
George I'm glad you share the opinion,I put him up last night on my thread and am a bit surprised he's 20/1 possibly because of the unfashionable yard.I'm fairly sure if it stays 16's/20's Hugh will put him up but he looks the type to keep on improving,his dam Crimson Ferns went from 55-96 and was a late developing type.He might run up a sequence when he learns how to race as he looked clueless last time.
By:
saddo
When: 27 Apr 16 08:36
GL, George. I see Dora's is in another maiden today, I thought they'd bang it straight in a handicap.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Apr 16 08:40
They didn't give her a mark, saddo

Good luck to us both with TS, Fatlad, and good luck with trying to second-guess what St Hugh is going to pick! Wink
By:
saddo
When: 27 Apr 16 08:41
Do you need to enter em in a handicap to get the mark George?
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Apr 16 08:47
I would have thought the mark is needed first in order for the trainer to know what grade the horse is eligible for, saddo.

Clearly the handicapper saw what anyone watching saw and has declined to give a mark.
By:
saddo
When: 27 Apr 16 08:54
I'll keep an eye on it, fav looks very short to me.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Apr 16 09:02
The filly who beat her at Kempton is probably going to be rated 80+ given she pulled 14l clear with the winner yesterday at Nottingham.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Apr 16 09:05
* Though if viewed through the 3rd horse at Kempton, she got stuffed yesterday!
By:
saddo
When: 27 Apr 16 09:07
Ah, haven't seen that yet, the one behind Bombilate in that kempton race has been beaten twice off 67 tho.
By:
saddo
When: 27 Apr 16 09:07
Laugh
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Apr 16 09:24
You might be right about Hugh George though I have an unhealthy habit of backing horses before he tips them at bigger prices than he thinks are value and they all seem to get beat,fuels a bit paranoia that they may have been too big originally because they can't win.Or I could've been wrong againBlush
By:
saddo
When: 27 Apr 16 10:20
Re the maiden George. I've backed Corked, debut form looks pretty strong. I'll wait til Dora's stops drifting.
Just watched Titus again and remember nearly putting it in the book lto, given the dreadful start it ran well. Looks like headgear might help to me.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Apr 16 11:43
Good luck with Corked, saddo

The BHA handicapper was on about additional qualifying runs on ATR the other week, and he was saying they have the power not to give a mark after the usual 3 runs if they're not comfortable doing so for whatever reason. It's happened to at least one of Prescott's; and even this year when they banned Murphy at Kempton for the ride on Packing, that horse had to run for a fourth time, but all Osborne did was drop the horse back to an inadequate looking 5f Crazy

As for Titus, although it didn't help being slowly away, I didn't think it was a disadvantage being held up in that race, so there might have been an element of him closing down on horses who'd run their race imo. I agree about the headgear, I did think he looked a little awkward, but that was the first time I'd seen the horse, so I'd want to see him again before calling him names!
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Apr 16 12:50
My first opinion fwiw is that he's green as grass and I'd like to see a clear run off a good pace with some sort of chance to be in the money before going for cp's if he doesn't go on with it
By:
saddo
When: 27 Apr 16 12:53
The money came, I missed 20s.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 27 Apr 16 13:21
Titus does look an awkward ride George but I could see him winning today and have backed him.

I fancy taking a flyer on Dukes Meadow in the last at Ascot at silly prices. It's recent run at Chelmsford on inspection was behind some horses with strong lines of form but I get the feeling a big field straight course handicap will suit this horse better than running around a bend. Also cheekpieces go on today and the half brother, who was also trained by the trainer, found a few pounds for the application of the headgear.

Well done on Sunday. Blistering Dancer a great call. I follow the yard quite closely and I didn't see that coming!
By:
mackies-fc
When: 27 Apr 16 13:25
Should qualify that by saying the run in March at Chelmsford and not the more recent run when tailed off!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Apr 16 16:02
Good luck with DM, mackies.

I've only seen the race live for TS, but it looked a nightmare from start to finish, blowing the start and then when it looked like he may make headway in the straight he looked awkward again / ran into trouble.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Apr 16 16:14
The horse doesn't know how to race on top of what you've mentioned George.Saddo's suggestion of headgear needed looks a good call now though like you I wanted to see him again.Cp's for me as he looks a bit too keen but he did show ability albeit in a wayward fashion.Not sure what he'd do on a straight turf track but if he's out with headgear on I'll have to have another go in a similar race as with a level start he might have been 3rd including the shenanigans (plus my 10lb penalty of course Sad)
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Apr 16 17:55
Maybe it's just the wrong track for him given his size, Fatlad.

Unlucky with Corked, saddo
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 27 Apr 16 18:38
Maybe it's the wrong distance.
I bet he puts him up when he thinks he's got him right.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 27 Apr 16 18:51
Titus Secret ´s rider reported that her saddle slipped Sad That complicates things even more. Dr Crippen I take your point about the trip I was looking at his mothers side of the pedigree and Latin Scholar who is her full brother won twice at 10f for Alan King.But I had convinced my self he'd be an improving sprinter like her.His next race will be interesting I just hope he's not a total dodge!
By:
saddo
When: 28 Apr 16 09:18
Just watched the maiden George, corked must have gone low ir. Also backed Wishsong at Ponte.Sad
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 28 Apr 16 09:50
Don't mention Wishsong the last place that horse wanted to be was in front and it did nowt but doss absolutely desperate SaddoCry
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 28 Apr 16 11:11
About 5s on, saddo Sad

As for the Dunlop hoss, the graph said it all Plain
By:
saddo
When: 28 Apr 16 11:20
Aye, it looked a very odd entry there George, another day.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Apr 16 08:32
Renewing, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.05 Chepstow

This is a risky one, mainly because I'm not sure how much the horse fancies it, and his two turf starts to date have been x-rated (though one start came when sent off at 50-1 on just his second run, and the other on quick ground at Bath might have been too bad to be true), but he is of a little interest trying 2 miles again despite concerns about the surface.

I thought he shaped better than the bare result in a race over 12f at Wolverhampton last November (when trained by Roy Brotherton at the time), having sat close to what appeared an overly-strong pace but was still plugging away when finding his path blocked round the inner by a weakener.

Renewing's next three starts offered little, but a step up to two miles (had run at the trip once before but had too much use made of him in a first time visor) on his second start for Paul Henderson, along with first-time cheekpieces and Franny Norton riding for the first time, prompted a better run, travelling a little more kindly than has sometimes been the case, and after finding trouble at the top of the straight, staying on well into a never-nearer 6th.

The cheekpieces are retained and Franny takes the mount again, and if Renewing fancies it, given he has shaped like he stays well on the AW, interesting to see how copes with this stamina test on turf; and if he can go the right way for his new trainer (who has one win twice recently and another run well over hurdles), he's potentially well handicapped (despite being 1lb 'wrong' here) having finished second off a mark of 62 last year.
By:
saddo
When: 29 Apr 16 08:45
GL George. I've backed Whispering Soul 1.55 mussy. Ran better than the result lto and the handicapper has kindly dropped it 5lb. Trainer not pulling up trees and blinkers need to work again but here's hoping.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Apr 16 08:59
Good luck with WS, saddo. I have a shortlist of 3 selections running at Musselburgh, but I'd be worried about the ground turning soft for all of them, and the weather forecast I saw last night didn't look good.
By:
saddo
When: 29 Apr 16 09:09
Just done tomorrows entries George. Got 3 in the guineas from debut notes Shocked
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Apr 16 09:12
The going is good at Musselburgh this morning, after 7mm of watering on Wednesday and a further 7mm of rain overnight

Watering despite a forecast of rain Crazy
By:
saddo
When: 29 Apr 16 09:17
I've just seen that after your warning, they appear to have little clue sometimes.Laugh
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 29 Apr 16 09:46
Low temperatures and rain / sleet / snow coming down from the north has been forecast all week. 7 NRs so far Crazy
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 29 Apr 16 09:58
beggars belief I'm sure she's got previous but too busy to dig it out,looks like another meeting where we've got no idea what ground were going to get something should've been done ages ago about the watering scenario
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 16 08:32
Joey's Destiny, 2.50 Goodwood, 1pt EW @ 20-1

Lincoln was an obvious one for this given how unlucky he looked at Haydock last time, however, he hasn't been missed in the market and at more rewarding odds a chance is taken on Joey's Destiny, trying 7f for the fourth time.

Two of JD's three attempts at the distance so far are easily ignored as they came on heavy ground (though he wasn't disgraced on either occasion), but the other attempt which came at Newmarket in a well contested handicap back in 2014 was an eye-catching one, having to wait for a run as the principals kicked, and then catching the eye with his finishing effort before being badly hampered in the closing stages.

Jack's Destiny has been relatively lightly raced since, managing only two more runs in 2014 (both on heavy ground) and only three in 2015 (best run when a close up 3rd of 14 over 6f at Goodwood); he wasn't disgraced on his return this season in a competitive handicap at the Lincoln meeting on ground that wouldn't have suited.

JD has been dropped 3lb following his reappearance, and he is of interest trying 7f again on more suitable ground, at a course he has won and gone well at.

Le Rock, 1pt win at 12-1, 7.45 Doncaster

Le Rock has only had 6 runs to date and half of them have been in France, and one of his starts in this country came in a Listed race at Ascot in which he was out of his depth (though did record a respectable RPR), so he's not the easiest to get a handle on, but he did catch my eye on his latest start over 12f at Lingfield 6 weeks ago.

The class 3 race he contested that day had some in-form contenders taking part, including Spes Nostra who went into the race on the back of a win and a decent second in a class 2 race, but Le Rock and Spes Nostra almost certainly compromised each other's chance by taking each other on for the lead; they were soon well clear of the rest of the field, and although the pace steadied around 5f out, Le Rock was soon being pushed along to take up the running around 3f out, but whereas Spes Nostra paid the price for his early exertions and ended up well beaten, Le Rock stuck on tenaciously for 3rd place.

He's been given a few weeks to get over that race, and with the switch to turf and step up in trip of little concern (he had previously finished second of eleven over 14.5f on ground given as very soft in France, and there's plenty of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree), this sizable, unexposed sort makes a little appeal, racing off a 1lb lower mark and with Josephine Gordon taking off a further 5lb.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 30 Apr 16 11:13
Good luck George

Soul Brother
Lancelot du Lac
Kommander Kirkup

Three from me today.
By:
therobster27
When: 30 Apr 16 11:20
Agree with you on Joey's Destiny George, liked him Lto when dropped to 6F but ran a little flat despite it being Fto. Totally agree with the angle regards 7F, but have gone with Lincoln and as you originally indicated has not been missed by the books, but did think him to be about a 6-1 shot so happy with 8's. GL hope they both run well for you.
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