Pandar, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 8.20 Nottingham

Pandar ended his time with Milton Bradley with some poor efforts and was struggling in sellers when last seen in August, however, only a month earlier last July he had looked as though he was far from a lost cause when catching the eye at Chepstow, finishing off strongly after having been squeezed out at a crucial stage; he may have been at an advantage challenging towards the stands' side rail that day, but at least it showed he was still capable of being competitive.

He ran five more times last season but offered little for whatever reason, including when tried in blinkers, but if the switch to Patrick Chamings' yard proves beneficial then he is clearly a well handicapped horse, having dropped 24lb since the start of last season and being 14lb below the notebook run.

That for the stats FL, that looks encouraging.

I'm not a big stats person I just use them to back up my form/horse opinions if there's a positive great but if they're bad they never stop me from backing a fancy though I think switcher stats can be useful.
Here's the link in case you want to check in future
https://www.flatstats.co.uk/change-in-trainer.php

Ambitious Icarus, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 6.55 Ripon

This is just a play at the prices on an exposed handicapper.

Three runs this season and two were poor, but they are easily excused on account of the ground, as although he has won on soft ground previously, his overall win record strongly indicates a preference for 'goodish' ground.

With a return to a better surface in his favour, he is of interest at a big price on his run two starts back at Leicester (6f), where despite over-racing in the early stages, he kept on well to finish a close-up third of fourteen.

Ambitious Icarus has never won off a mark this high (79 - 1lb above his highest winning mark, but he ran a few good races of marks in the low 80s last season to suggest it shouldn't be beyond him; he also has a fair course record having won here and been placed twice from 8 starts, and not been disgraced in the Great St Wilfred last season despite having finished only 8th but only beaten 2l.

He does have a better record at 5f, but there is enough in his form to suggest he's fine over 6f.

Gl George

Jockey booking on AI would be a positive for him too, he takes some knowing and Paddy gets on well with him.

Al Khan has run some pretty good closing sectional times at Lingfield over the winter from bad draws and although he will be a hostage to fortune in the first at Chester it's a  race full of pace so I'm hoping Shane can make up for Mukaynis on Wednesday!

My third and final selection today

Platitude, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 2.40 Chester

Platitude looks an interesting contender in the Dee Stakes, and although he has up to 5lb to find on those ahead of him in the market, there are reasons to think he can improve this season.

The main reason is the step up in trip to 10.5f from a mile, being a brother to a 12f winner and a half-brother to the useful 12f winner Model Pupil (who incidentally was a tad unlucky not to win the Chester Vase at this meeting), out of a 14f Listed winner.

His stable could not be in better form, and although Platitude was disappointing when last seen at Chelmsford, he may have benefited from a gelding operation since; his previous run at Salisbury suggested a step up in trip would suit, and that form doesn't look too bad now with the winner not disgraced in the Craven and the runner-up going on to be placed in Group 2 company.

He may be a tad over-priced based on jockey bookings, but presumably Ryan Moore has been claimed by Aidan O'Brien, and Stevie Donohoe who takes the ride, won on the horse on its debut and was aboard at Salisbury.

Mackies I know it's no consolation now but you'll get your money back and some with Al Khan as you mentioned he's ran closing races from bad draws on the AW,he got 10 today (1st,2nd&3rd 4,2,1) and nothing got involved from the back

If memory serves mackie, people were saying the horse was a bleeder.

The winner confirmed the Chelmsford form with Platitude Though tbh, I was disappointed to see it drilled from the start to go prominent when it was stepping up in trip and it never looked comfortable, and not surprisingly it had little left in the straight, though maybe that's as good as he is.

I think someone said the horse was ridden like a non trier to con people into claiming the horse.

As if that sort of thing goes on..

The Warrior, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 4.15 Ascot (5 places)

This was an obvious (imo) eye-cacther when making his debut for Amanda Perrett at Lingfield last month, having been held up in a race where the winner made all, he caught the eye in the straight not getting the clearest of runs before going on at the finish.

He was returning from 10 months off, and the booking of Ryan Moore together with market support in a fairly competitive handicap indicated that a good run was expected, and he certainly shaped better than the bare result.

The Warrior was previously trained by Aidan O'Brien, for whom he didn't seem to progress, albeit highly tried on occasion, and headgear had been reached for, but perhaps a break and a change of scenery has revived the horse, and he was initially rated 11lb higher than he is now.

He's up in grade and this is a deal tougher, but he's still lightly raced, and interesting to see how he progresses (or regresses) for his new yard.


Mr Bossy Boots, 1pt EW @ 33-1 (5 places)

My other against the field is Mr Bossy Boots who's just a play at the prices having looked in really good nick when winning at Lingfield recently; he's only had one run on turf previously and didn't show a lot, but wouldn't want to judge him on such scant evidence, and as he appears to be a 7f specialist, interesting to see how he copes with this different test at the trip.

Well done George. Could have won a furlong!

good stuff George

you seem to be getting on some good gambles early too

well done george

That was a superb pick George, VWD

Sunraider, 4.45 Ascot, 1pt EW @ 20-1

A nine-year-old horse beaten in a Catterick claimer on its penultimate start would not be an obvious starting point for an Ascot handicap, but there are reasons to think Sunraider is a worth a small interest at rewarding odds.

He caught the eye on his return from a winter break at Chelmsford in March, when from a wide draw he made up plenty of ground in the straight before finding trouble inside the final furlong and leaving the impression he still retains his ability despite his advancing years.

The two runs since are easy to excuse as the ground was softer than he cares for, but at least those runs have served to reduce his mark down to 75, which is 5lb below the Chelmsford run and 3lb below his last winning mark.

The return to a sounder surface is very much in his favour, and granted luck with the draw and in running, an improved showing wouldn't surprise.

King Of Swing, 6.35 Thirsk, 1pt EW @ 20-1 (25-1 in a place)

King Of Swing's sales price shot up to £110,000 as a 2YO, and it looked like money well spent when he looked a good prospect in winning on his debut over 6f at Haydock last September, however, the 3 runs since have seemingly been disappointing given that bright start, though it is possible to excuse those apparent below par showings.

The notebook run came on his next start and handicap debut at Nottingham over 5f in October, when the trip looked too sharp for him and he might have been at a disadvantage racing away from the stands' rail, but I liked the way he stuck to his task and was going on at the finish.

The two runs since have been on Tapeta at Wolverhampton and perhaps the surface hasn't suited, though it should also be pointed out that his form on turf so far has come on soft ground and therefore drying conditions are a concern, particularly as a sharp six furlongs may not be ideal given he needed all of Haydock's 6f on soft ground to get on top when winning on his debut; but a chance is taken at big odds, with his mark having dropped 5lb below his initial rating and that early promise not forgotten; he has been gelded since last seen.

I have had a few shekells on King Of Swing just in case (I've backed Bad Girl Caoimhe)I like the gelded angle with him as he tanked round wide last time and caught my eye in the run.If he hadn't ran last time he would've been half the price as your reasons for his lesser runs make sense and his sp's say he's got ability 11/8,6/1&9/2.This looks a decent race of it's type up North might be 1 or 2 eyecatchers in there.
gl with the selections

Good luck with BGC, Fatlad, I did notebook her at Ponte given the trip she had, and I notieced St Hugh tipped her on the back of that last time.

I also liked the run of Mister Mischief lto, but hey, I can't back them all!

I see we got in early before Mr Seagull

It will be interesting to see if Pandar reproduces that run next time-it will take at least 20lb rise to stop him if he does.

I think Mr Bossy Boots is way overpriced George. The 7f handicap he finished 4th in last April worked out well (the winner of this race last year came from the race) and he was badly positioned in that race but got to within a length of speculative bid at the finish.

I don't think he beat much at Lingfield last time but he was shuffled back off the turn when they kicked off a slow pace and still managed to win convincingly.

This is a completely different type of test obviously but if you look at the pedigree there are no reasons to think he won't be as good or better on turf.