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Jonnie Skull 3.20 Stratford Huge Place Lay
Jonnie Skull 3.20 Stratford Huge Place Lay
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Delta, interesting and quite amusing in the context of the race and the severe effort not made earlier in the race.
The horse looked to travel really well in rear and made ground pretty easily before the retreat. Missed the whip bit as I was updating my state of the art A4 pad of horses of interest. I guess it gets interesting now as I would like to see the horse down to 110 to 112 but after the enquiry will they be generous or continue the punishment of another small stable. |
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Layed Maybe I Wont 3.0 Carlisle @5.8
Rated 118 so not short of ability but you have to ask why he is still a maiden. Having been beaten on his home track by a 72 horse you have to have doubts and maybe they feel he is better out of handicaps. The race itself looks lop sided with 2 seriously fancied but most novices are like that. They both look horses of potential whereas the selection looks pretty exposed. There is a danger on this track that his experience might see him home if the top 2 do get the early bits wrong but worth taking on for me with 5.8 a good starting point. GL all. |
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4 green bottles of fair vintage Chablis. Lets see how he goes.
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Ran pretty much as expected and you have to feel for connections with a poorly handicapped horse and the novices get tougher and tougher. Runs plenty of times so the chasing might be an option and handicappers sometimes go soft on a return to hurdles. We struck lucky with a horse who fell in the 4 miler at the festival when well fancied and disputing 5 out, the handicapper dropped his hurdle rating from 96 to 84 and he won pulling up at Hereford.
Always a bit frustrating getting out pre race at a top of 8.2 when he went to about 15 at half way but there was no dodge with the horse imo, simply not good enough so happy enough. |
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Well back to the nitty gritty after a good trip to Chelters with the backing strategy working with 7 out of 7 and leaving the laying to the day to day racing.
Layed Tarraco @7.0 1.20 Lingfield This looks tight knit and several can win. Happy to pass on that Loughalder is fit and fancied after Chepstow and in some ways he would be tradable but ran on the bridle last time, probably the only time he has done! Tarraco has shown nothing so far and was well beaten when unseating last time and looked a tired horse imo. He probably wont mind the ground but that could be said of plenty of the others. Not sure about his mark but there are 3 in here that look very fairly treated with the EL horse a potential improver and Loughalder a decent and honest yardstick. 7.0 looks a good starting point with some scope IR as there are a couple likely to race from the front and Tarraco may be given time to get a rhythm going. GL all. |
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Only a modest win as the pre race market went the wrong way Jumping got steadily worse which I thought might be the case but could have done with some early errors.
Loughalder ran ok but needs a stiffer track to be at his best and hopefully there is a race at Chepstow for him. |
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Layed Princely Hero @5.7 3.20 Warwick
I see this very much from an IR trade although may get some pre race drift from this point. From a handicapping perspective he can win and might well do so although he is hardly prolific. The race is competitive so that gives us a chance If you have A to Z of trading horses this one would feature as he rarely if ever travels in his races and I cant believe there wont be plenty of chances to make this a positive trade. GL all. |
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Decent green and the result not a total surprise as he can gallop. He remains a great trading horse and the foundation of any directory as he always goes big in running.
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Layed Shalamiyr 1.10 Chepstow @5.2 and 5.3
This fellow is in good form but this race looks more competitive than the one he won at Southwell. Up for that he faces imo a very stiff task with this weight in deepish ground Plenty of dangers with BW looking like a clear cut winner without a penalty and others as well. Can see a drift from here as plenty will be thinking this is going to be very tough and he also looked to travel a bit in and out at Southwell so some scope IR. GL all. |
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Thought that was going to be hard work but WD !
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Yep, not much matched pre race and he went ok for a bit too long. All the keep bets were matched very quickly after he started to falter but a decent result all the same. For a moderate horse that was always going to be difficult but sometimes you need patience.
Not getting the pre race market moves right often enough at the moment but still making steady money. |
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Layed Champagne West @ average of 5 1.00 Ascot
Not normally my type of race as you can usually narrow these races down to a few which is probably the case here. However he does have 2 very tough ones to beat and I have a slight doubt about the Exeter run as for me he was not really going that well when he made the bad error. Something tells me the vibes are not good here although no obvious flaws which is my usual starting point The NTD horse is expected to run well and it looks that way with the Henderson horse. He was an expensive purchase and well backed that day but having watched this market closely I can see more drift as there are plenty putting up fair money to oppose. Not sure about IR but will leave some in play as I feel there will be more looking to get him. GL all |
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Modest green achieved pretty much pre race which made life easier as apart from jumping right he ran well. Would be quite keen to take him on again over this trip but not longer as he clearly stays and gallops.
Welsh National winner in the making with his background! |
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Virgin
Day off today but just watched the race. Ran a promising race as they must all of been wary about finishing too close to the favourite. Have the feeling the late mistake probably saved them from being quite a bit closer and gave a nice alibi for a tender ride home. Could win a summer novice but more likely as you say a soft ground novice handicap so they will need to go even quieter next time  |
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12.35 looks the slowest Hurdle time (last race not known yet) Fav overrated
 or just laughing at the competition  |
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Hard to assess the favourite but he looks professional and uncomplicated and bound to be placed correctly imo and would back him next time.
Need to get something sorted on alerts as just realised I missed the Hawker horse that won at Towcester. Had that one down on the A4 pad last season after the 40 day ban and some interesting runs. The Hawkers had a festival winner with Lacson many years ago and deserved a winner |
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easyodds.com the best I have used for alerts NOW WE KNOW...
free as many as you like add your own notes emailed overnight or Fri PM for w/e one |
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Thanks Delta, on a previous thread I missed Tin Town Boy which I highlighted next time when he won as a reserve @47!,Not sure if it picks up reserves in Ireland but will use in future.
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Layed Morestead at an average of 5.2 1.30 Lingfield.
This fellow has pride of place in my A4 pad of lay to back rogues and will be sadly missed when he retires. He likes the course and if a mark counts with him then he has a decent one today. AP is fine and there is a danger that he could make all on a rare going day. Well that's the good bits done, the reality is he is likely to have AP getting animated whatever happens and very unlikely not to trade at or above double figures IR and is almost without exception tradable. This looks a little better race than normal in this grade with a couple of unexposed horses and some who could be close to a winning mark. Car Crash statement but Betfair was made for horses like him! GL all |
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Good summary, can see why he is a favourite !
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well done - don't do that again though eh
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Ha Ha!
I would have preferred him to win as I always do some cover trades when he applies the brakes as he then has something to chase! He has won after being headed in the last third of a race. Horses like him make NH racing such a great sport and if you DYOR it is possible to make money as these equine criminals have plenty of previous to go. Need to get the staking more automated as it was a good race but should have been better. |
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Layed Polisky @ 3.75 12.55 Newbury
Not difficult to understand the support for this fellow running off the same mark as Ascot and in effect a winner without a penalty. For me he not only looks beatable but very tradable as he is hardly a prolific winner and is pretty ungenuine and there could be some drift pre race to help a trade as there will be those who wont trust the last run. It was a race imo that fell in his lap and he still managed to lose it so there will always be doubts. His running style gives hope as he is not the greatest jumper and has an on and off style of running that gave me a modest green last time so some scope there. The timing of his challenge is also going to be difficult with Milarrow also likely to be held up for as long as possible. Yes he can win but so can everybody by trading him! GL all. |
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dont forget to factor in B1 today...
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Decent result but no pre race drift which is always helpful as I don't like everything to rely on IR.
Ran to type in that he pulled and the jockey was left waiting with horse who wanted to go further into the race too early. He remains a strong entry in the P section of dodgepots and often starts quite short which I really like when finding these horses. As a bit of fun happy to share my most profitable trading horse is Stormion of Lucinda Russell, hilarious fellow who can go to 50 plus and still win and nearly that in the place market sometimes. |
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Yes Delta blinkers first time. They had the desired effect of making him concentrate on losing the race.
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Place Layed Hazy Tom 2.40 Newbury @4.7
This is very competitive with virtually everything having a chance of sorts. There is a degree of danger taking this fellow on as he is at best quite useful and could figure. For me however he remains pretty much a nearly horse who is soft and best fresh. Add to that he is racing off his highest mark then I am happy to take on today in a decent race. Should be tradable from this price which looks short so some scope pre race which would be helpful as he may go from the front. GL all. |
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Job done for a few bottles of something decent. Results are fine but not apart from this one not getting as many pre race market moves right which has been leaving a bit too much IR liability.
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Not keen on crabbing non talking athletes but he seems either very soft or maybe a breathing problem. Travelled well enough but then a brick wall so clearly one to avoid but doubt if we will see him for a while.
Difficult for connections as he is on his highest mark and that will only drop significantly by a series of modest efforts, the pleasures of ownership! |
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Place Layed Rosie Probert 12.20 Newbury at average of 3.75
Could be wrong here but I see this mare more as a summer jumper that has been well placed and happy to take on at this price in this race. This is very tough and I put her as 5th best which could be wrong but there are some very good mares here that have shown form and have scope for improvement. Normally I look for a specific flaw but this looks very short so is more price orientated, the Cheltenham run was ok but imho gives an indication that she wont be good enough. GL all. |
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Pretty much as expected and back to handicaps where a step up in trip might help as they were always going a stride quick for her imo.
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Just a thought an update on success or failure might be fun.
Total Selections 46 9 have won. Average Price Layed 4.76 Average Price Backed 6.56 Level Stake Lay Profit Net of 5% 1228.00 to 100 level stake Interesting in that I would have been better simply laying the selections as trading profits are 61% of the above figure. Only Double Chocolate was a poor race and most of the others were not difficult to get to green. The problems remain poor early liquidity as I like to target the moderate horses, it may just be subjective but you see some very good horses starting at 20 plus at the weekends. It would be so much easier if 500 liability could be matched the night before on the above races but just don't see that happening. Interesting how laying principally can change the thought process as I went to Cheltenham and had 7 win bets over the 3 days, not great prices and they all won. Since then no win markets and 2 or 3 years ago would have backed Vendor on Saturday as he had the form and looked perfect for a big field handicap. Not sure if negativity sets in when laying or we become more cautious. One thing it is not is easy money. |
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Layed The Road Ahead @6.2 1.40 Plumpton
Interesting race and hopefully no non runners. This fellow is trying a new trip today which raises an initial doubt and has pulled in the past so could be something IR if he does so again. The race itself contains course form and proven staying form and possible improvers which makes the selection layable in principle. The early market move should also give some pre race scope for a drift which would be helpful. Looks tradable from this starting point and has a chance but should be profitable either way. GL all. |
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Nice drift pre ;)
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A fair result but a bit more early price drift would have been helpful as it was only from 1.35 onwards that the balancing started.
He did pull early and the odds reflected that and easy to say after but that looked a very stiff task over a new trip for a novice against proven stayers. One to avoid methinks. |
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Place Layed Light The World 2.50 Southwell @ average of 4.7
I know a little about this as some friends had a share when he was with Richard Phillips and after initial promise he became very sour. Even when turned out he ran off jumped a few fences and went missing! Add to that he is not guaranteed to start and he should be tradable even in such a thin market. He is in new hands but ran poorly at Exeter and although I can sense a Jonnie Skull moment things should be fine for a decent trade GL all. |
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Not difficult even though it would have been helpful if he had been a bit tricky at the start. Travelled for a bit of the race and made a minor error and dogged it, quelle surprise!
Good result and the horse remains firmly in the dodgepot diary although not sure how many more dining opportunities he will provide. |
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Layed Talkonthestreet 2.10 Ludlow @4.9
Bit puzzled by the money for this in what looks like a decent race and he looks tradable from this starting point as he has been longer. Different discipline but he looked uneasy at Haydock and never looked like figuring and travelled in and out which could be helpful IR. He does have a fair mark which might explain the money but there are plenty here who can win and yes he does have a chance but happy to take on.GL all. |