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Jonnie Skull 3.20 Stratford Huge Place Lay
Jonnie Skull 3.20 Stratford Huge Place Lay
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Layed The Quantum Kid 4.20 Towcester @4.7
After a nice Iberian break and the great news of another Burnley win sat in a tapas bar in a ultra modern shopping arcade next to an antiquated Levante stadium its back to the grind but fun of nicking some wages off the jumpers. Burnley look like providing a big return on some well placed trades but this fellow wont be so easy but likely all the same. Fairly handicapped and with a little bit of course form some will expect him to follow up his last decent run and he might. The reality is that the race is competitive with plenty of possible improvers and he is hardly prolific and races off a higher mark after the decent last run. he will probably be prominent so would hope to be pretty green pre race. GL all. |
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Nice drift, very helpful.
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Layed Standing Ovation @ 3.85 and 3.9 3.20 Exeter.
Interesting horse as he runs off a decent mark relative to hurdles rating and hardly a race full of likely improvers. Often well backed including today so some potential for drift as he seems very short relative to actual achievement. The fall last time is not helpful so some scope in running if needed as his confidence may not be too high. Clearly expected to run well and may win but the price seems very short on a course that requires accurate jumping and reserves in a finish. |
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Decent green but top match a tiny 9, not the 70! Should continue to improve but sluggish jumping will make this a good trading horse for time being.
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Some smart early laying done on here with some clever people getting Kangaroo Court and August Hill really short. You look at the CL runners as being short but most of them don't look to have any obvious dodges.
Layed Anger Management @6 4.40 Newton Abbott Clearly can win this dropped in grade but trading at the lower end of his price range so should get some pre race drift with such a strong favourite and others to consider. Really not sure they he is 100 per cent right physically which means will leave some IR. Gl All |
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Frustrating small green as little matched above pre race and some panicky under pricing win bets when he made the running. As highlighted this fellow has problems and moved poorly, doubt if he will be seen for some time if at all.
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NOW WE KNOW 07 Sep 13 12:10
Really cant see this free running sort ever getting the trip over hurdles and in a race that might have more depth than first impressions this looks a huge place lay at 3ish. Now then..where exactly does it say place lay 'trade' ? of course it doesn't so becos it won you tried to cover it with a 'all green' scenario...WAC WALOFS Tell you what,take a screenshot of your green trade and redeem your tarnished reputation. I await in anticipation  |
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Happy to post it and will. Have a look at my post on the football forum Bolton @ 10 for the Championship which tells plenty and then think about your apology,I am to receive it. The Js win trades will follow demain.
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As promised the screenshot from race of the original post.
Horse Racing > Strat 7th Sep : To Be Placed Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£) Jonnie Skull * 3.22 44.20 Back 98.27 Jonnie Skull * 2.92 69.20 Lay -133.02 *Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 98.27 Lay subtotal: -133.02 Market subtotal: -34.75 Commission : 0.00 Net Market Total: -34.75 The modest green on the race was achieved by trades on the other exchange. I appreciate this wont satisfy everybody but hopefully for those who doubted there were any win trades the evidence is clear. In hindsight I should have made it clear on the OP that it was a trade and for that I do apologise. Within reason I am happy display trades win or lose and there is nothing in this thread which is not true, inaccurate or an attempt to deceive. It is a blog about racing and trading. If you doubt the trading angle still go to Bolton Championship thread, clearly I will be accused of after timing as the thread appeared in July 2013 and Burnley were founded in 1882! |
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Layed Pete The Feat @ 5.2 5.45 Chepstow.
There should be some fat in this as he has traded in the lower ranges so hopefully something pre race. Clearly the stable are out of form! He was in great form last year but even with a small drop he races off close to his highest mark. What worries me about this type of horse is that you are not guaranteed he will be in the same sort of form and upward curve after a break. He can win and his running style of travelling well means that I would looking to be close to green pre race. GL all. |
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Nobody is interested, this is the biggest load of carp since BF_Fanantic, give it up and stop wasting your time imo...
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Hopefully PTF is sound and he ran better than I thought. Probably just a bit too fresh and well but on that run may still be on a winning mark.
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'huge' place lay...
69 quid  ....wac |
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roida
is WH banded iyo? |
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yes sine die
.... no free speech on ere delty |
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Just a few observations and any constructive comments welcome or any others!
21 selections of which just Chocala was a trading loser. 17 of the 21 were beaten. Average lay price achieved 4.62 Average back price achieved 5.92 Thin but acceptable margins even if the back average was distorted by the massive drift of Face Value. Modest profits hampered by poor liquidity and failure to execute the whole lay trade the real issue, not a surprise. Level Stake profit, not the thread intention  to a 100 sterling lay less full commission 918 sterling which is better than actual return which any comments or suggestions would be helpful. |
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Place Layed Not Till Monday 2.20 Huntingdon @3.62
This looks very competitive and he could run well as he is on a decent mark . However there will be no easy lead here and his recent hurdle form is in weaker contests than this and there are frontrunners and finishers, some still unexposed. From this starting point there should be some drift and would hope more a modest green pre race and not too much on the table in running just in case he tries to force from the front. GL all. |
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Looks like 3 days profit may go down the drain if this is placed or it may be a decent payout. Betfair need a sports site that is fit for purpose.
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Looks like he needs to drop back to conditions sellers where he can dominate. Too keen but not leading was never going to work.
Worked out well the crash for once with a few trades IR matched but the decision and lack of deduction with Mr Lando running is a disgrace. Another shorty well beaten but the strength behind this in the market was a big surprise. |
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Layed Grandads Horse 3.55 Wetherby @4.9 and @5
The defence will argue that stable form and small drop in weights are positive. The smaller field and no obvious pacemaker may allow him to get some flow into his race so can buy into to that bit. For me its not about carrying 3 or whatever less, he will be hit or miss over fences for a while and this course is unforgiving jumping wise. Yet to see an error free round from him so far. He could at some stage be a 140 plus horse but not at the moment imo. He could win this but think there is scope in this price for a drift and some left IR could be rewarded. Gl all. |
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since your intial advice was found to be a parcel of pap nee ones bothered.
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roida
It would have been easy to hide after the initial advice. JS has run twice since and been tailed off both times. How he won in the manner he did at Stratford is hard to fathom. If you look at the selections since and the comments they have in general been accurate and either as trades, level stake lays at BSP or advised prices been profitable. The ROI is decent. Granted I do try to play markets when they are weak and many trades are hard to execute in full Of the 4 winners only Chocala traded almost exclusively below the advised price and did not have the flat spot in the race that I thought he would. Limelight was flagged up as likely to trade very high IR, the same with Standing Ovation who went to 70 as he jumped the way I thought he might. It would be great to have more input but the level of views each day suggest that maybe people are interested in the selections, that is not for me to judge. Maybe they are waiting for another car crash selection, JS was hardly a huge price! This forum is about opinions and I have a deep love of NH racing and will continue this winter to put up selections. If I am the guesser, clueless no nothing the beauty of Betfair is you can take my cash as the person who took the 115 lay of Darnborough @3 did on Monday night  |
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Frustrating taking a minor loss pre race due to the flood of money. With the IR prices it should have been an easy green as he was good at some but not at others which is sadly what I thought might happen.
If he runs in a big field handicap not difficult to oppose but ridden with confidence and clearly improving a small field conditions race might suit better. |
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Layed Sugar Hiccup @5 2.20 Wincanton
The rise in the weights is significant and this has more of a winter NH handicap about it than his previous races and looks competitive. The trade angle comes from 2 directions, he looks short at this price based on the quality of the race but more importantly there looks to be scope IR. At Southwell there were plenty of times he looked under pressure down the far side and on a track like Wincanton this is likely to be the case again. Yes he might still be improving and can win but with some left IR this should be a decent trade. |
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@5.1 Desolee!
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NOW WE KNOW
popping in from time to time .... have to say that the initial Jonnie Skull lay was dreadful luck - good to see your subsequent efforts have fared better.. Of the 6 jumps runners from that race to have subsequently jumped to date nothing has got within 27 lengths of winning.... it must be the most dog sh1t race ever ... so far anyway  gl |
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Virgin
Yep the race has proved awful and the long odds on shot of Rebecca Curtis ran in seller next and started @20!! and finished tailed off. I think he just set a gallop he could maintain and it was enough. He was never going to follow up but sadly I was down in Spain when he ran at Huntingdon and although not difficult to sort a trade out left it and he finished tailed off as expected. The selections are doing well but sometimes I need to hold my nerve and let more ride IR. Grandads Horse should have been a decent green and I was convinced he would miss a couple but the flood of money left me with too much liability too risk in case he was foot perfect. Happy to keep nicking bits and pieces even if it is sometimes a minimum wage for a trade placed the night before. GL. |
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Nice few hours minimum wage sorted. Probably trade @20 down the back and make the cover trades at 5.5 upwards look silly. Might win though!
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Ran a personal best, travelled and jumped, all credit to him. Wont win off this mark so might get him again soon.
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Layed Captain Sunshine @5.8 3.15 Cheltenham
Plenty of positives with course form and trainer doing fine. The race does not contain too many obvious improvers but with big fields there always some about to hit a winning mark and after the race it all seems logical. There is always a chance this quirky fellow might do something daft so the price as a backer looks a bit cramped. He can win this as his mark reflects what he has achieved but he does look tradable. GL all. |
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Sure to be accused of after timing but that was a strange gamble in a qualifier for a horse with quirks. Not as profitable as it could have been as very little matched pre race and stubborn resistance until 2 late on!!
Not sure what to make of the run but might drop a couple but he remains a horse to be against. |
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wd
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Virgin
Looking for the Chapter Five hurdle entry! 65 rated presents a problem for connections, quiet few to get the safe around 90 mark. Probably need an average rating of 105 to win a novice from now on. Looks like a threat or an opportunity from here! |
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NOW WE KNOW 07 Sep 13 12:10
Really cant see this free running sort ever getting the trip over hurdles and in a race that might have more depth than first impressions this looks a huge place lay at 3ish. Now please tell since when has a HUGE place lay manage to turn into a trade? YFDSC |
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NOW WE KNOW
30 Jul 13 15:54 Joined: 14 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 689 | Blogger: NOW WE KNOW's blog Backed Burnley at huge odds outright to trade and top The non trader NWK. HA HA |
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wot thuf**** that got to do with johnny skull YFDSC
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So Mary climb in
Its a town full of losers and we are pulling out here to win! |
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Layed Upton Mead 2.50 Plumpton @ 3.3 and 3.35
The positives are a drop in class and does know how to win and not many others to enthuse about. Very confident of a decent trade here as the current price level is very low relative to his actual chance and should get bigger pre race. His running style normally on and off the bridle which should give some IR scope. He is a moody horse in reality. Yes he can win and appears the most likely in the race but at this level must be some money to be made. GL all. |
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Nice drift with just a bit left IR. Money for Watergate is really odd as he finds it close to impossible to win. This is a really strange race, Shes Humble looks interesting as knows how to win and feasible mark and goes in glue.
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