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Jonnie Skull 3.20 Stratford Huge Place Lay
Jonnie Skull 3.20 Stratford Huge Place Lay
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Few hours minimum wage but IR could have been better. Travelled a bit sweeter than normal and will oppose again as revised mark likely and cant believe they will find another race as bad as this one.
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another parcel of pap
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Day 3 of living off a generator after a storm that left the car looking like it had been machined gunned by golf balls. Smashed windows all over the houses and no SAT, what a nightmare.
Our stable had some runners that were expected to run well yesterday and they ran ok with a decent second and some promise shown and one should be ready next time. |
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Layed Ringa Bay 3.15 Ludlow @4.5
Probably one of the most interesting horses running today and could make a mockery off this mark with the talented DB looking after him. However there are reasons to be against him despite a fair mark and change of stables. He has been very well backed so some scope for a pre race drift. What he does IR might be rewarding also as he is not, or has not been an easy ride. Has shown a tendency to jump left which over a trip wont be helpful and can also take a strong hold which again when fresh can be a problem. Fairly competitive race on the face of it and he may well win but a decent trade likely. |
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After another power cut not able to see the race. I have seen the result and distances but would somebody be kind enough to give a brief lowdown on how he ran. Thanks.
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Place Layed To The Sky @ 2.6 2.62 2.64 5.0 Fakenham
Looks like this is tradable and it looks to be near the bottom of its likely trading range so may drift from here pre race. For me there are 6 that could reach the frame including this fellow. Beaujolais looks much better than he has shown and there could be some improvement from the others plus the front 2 look fairly reliable. This fellows rating looks high, not significant to this race in some ways but the last time blow out would worry me. All in all a decent risk and reward trade where unexposed opposition might bring some money in and cause a drift, can make the frame but silly odds imo. |
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Just noticed he's in the next
Here's Jonnie  |
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Ha Ha!
 The question has to be, was that JS at Stratford??!! 3 tailed off runs since, WTF!! |
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Layed Fruity Orooney 2.30 Aintree @4.2
Clearly has a chance and with the gear back on suggests that a decent run is expected. The mark is ok but will probably need to be close to his best to win this. This is competitive and although lacking anything that looks very progressive all of them know how to win and could. Trading wise he looks short enough now for a drift although these better races don't seem to get the level of pre race drift of the gaff meetings, no surprise there. Do see something in running as he is genuine but travels at times but can labour and his jumping can be a bit hit or miss. GL all. |
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Ran as expected and the pre race drift was a bonus. I think when he drops to the low 130s he will be interesting, probably 3 more before the festival!
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Burnley OMG, the trade of a lifetime. I need help sorting this out!!!!!!!!!!
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Layed Blackwater King @4.7 3.50 Carlisle
Quite like this as a trade for several reasons. This fellow is beginning to look a little disappointing having won once but started favourite every outing. The placing in a handicap chase might be clever as this is probably his future but his blowout at Haydock raises questions as does his tendency to pull. Not convinced about his jumping of hurdles so on a course with such a punishing finish if he shows some of these traits IR there should be some decent cover trades in play. He looks short at this price anyway and yes he can win but happy to take on. GL all. |
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Ran pretty much as expected pulling hard early and made mistakes and the cover trades matched early. Very tempted to go back in when he looked to be rallying as getting home was never going to be easy after the mess he made of the early part of the race.
Probably do better in time over fences on good ground but on sticky ground and slow run races one to lay imo. |
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Layed Balding Banker @7.0 and 7.2 2.30 Sedgefield
This looks tradable with a likely strong favourite and the early support should lend to a drift. His mark looks high enough for what is essentially a disappointing horse with a modest win ratio relative to his SP returns. My feeling is that he probably still carries physical issues which doubtless PN had tried to correct before he was moved on. The way he often finishes his races suggests that his breathing remains a problem, this course might help but he looks worth being against. Not a race full of obvious improvers but competitive all the same, could win but plenty of doubts for me. GL all. |
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Interesting run and the highlighted physical problems seemed to be correct. Travelled and jumped and then his wind problem likely kicked in.
Will be very difficult with this fellow, maybe points next. |
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Layed Another Flutter @3.85 and 3.9 1.50 Uttoxeter
Well this could be interesting as I know plenty about this horse and the parents of the trainer stayed last weekend here! It will be trying for its life as they are mad keen to get a winner for this loyal owner so no doubts on that front. For me he is genuine but tripless, this 2 miles in gluey ground is probably his best option but still see him as tradable from this price. Pre race drift in an open race seems likely as he remains a maiden so some will have doubts. Can also have flat spots IR, some scope there also. Not a great race but there are a few obvious dangers and then the outsiders that pop up in these types of handicaps. Clearly from a handicapping perspective he can win and might well do so but profit should be possible either way. GL all. |
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Cashed in the chips for a fair green, easy to enjoy the race now and should be interesting to see if he travels in the race.
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Well 3 bottles of Sancerre instead of a case. Hopefully the horse is ok and he confirmed the difficulty of winning with a horse without a best trip. Travelled, struggled, tried but got tired.
Maybe Towcester over 2 and a half with a quiet ride and pick them off late might be the answer. |
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Great jump racing over the weekend and the highlight for me was the victory of Tidal Bay. Plenty on here will have made their trading money on the pre race drift and he remains a horse Betfair was made for. Always drifting IR and not looking like winning but often does, great stuff and the sort of horse that makes the sport what it is.
The only sizable lay for me was Cool Baranca at Ayr who imo is not a Saturday handicapper in the grade he ran in and his current mark is 8 to 10 too high now. The thin market stopped me putting it up as a selection. Jonnie Skull ran well again! Good to see some scruffy racing back demain and hopefully some of the AW convicts with plenty of previous will supplement the gains on the jumpers. |
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Layed Landenstown Star @4.1 4.05 Plumpton
This looks a silly price to me for a horse with such a poor winning record. He is well handicapped in some respects but the question is that he has probably acquired this mark due a series of poor runs unless connections know differently. He is also not the easiest ride and not ideal for a conditional and the headgear may not work again. Should be some scope for a pre race drift from here but he shortens as I type! IR should be possible as he is not the totally straightforward, so tradable. Yes he could win but there 3 or 4 in the race for me that have every bit as much chance as this fellow. GL all. |
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Not much doing pre race so only a modest green achieved by half way. Looks a right dodgepot but a long distance selling handicap would suit, there was one at Taunton but no mark seems mow enough so a slog looks the ticket.
Level stake profits continue to increase and something interesting regarding SP returns and Win ratio developing. |
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Place Layed Keen Eye @ 4.6 and 4.7 2.20 Exeter
Not the sort of horse that is normally on the radar as he is inexperienced and could improve, so not too much to go on. The race itself looks strong and to a degree this is price orientated in that I don't believe he would be this short if AP was not chasing the 4000. His last run was not exactly progressive and the feeling for me is that they wont be too keen to finish too close to the fancied horses from a handicapping perspective. Should be scope for a drift as he has been quite well backed and pretty confident of a decent profit. |
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Job done and this will make interesting viewing!
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About as busy as Tewkesbury High Street in the floods and a mark of 90ish and a 2 and half novice handicap might be the ticket.
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Place Layed Double Chocolate @ 3.65 and 3.7 3.25 Warwick
Modest horse who ran better last time for his new stable but this looks more competitive. He can plod on and could nick a place but his overall profile imo is regressive. Fairly treated but when you see a potential improver like Timpo below him and several other potential improvers above him he looks worth taking on. Should be some sope for a pre race drift as he looks short to me and something in running as he has flat spots in most of his runs. GL all. |
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Timpo a potential improver?
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IMO yes off this sort of mark. Clearly expected to be better than what he has achieved but there is nearly always a race waiting for a horse who has been placed.
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Hardly an improver though, surely? He's been running in 3m chases for 3 years, he's nearly 11, he started on 96 and he's now on 95. He's pretty consistent and deserves to win a race or 2.
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...sorry, he started off 98, and he's now on 98. I'm not sure you'd find another 3m hcap chaser whose mark had varied so little over 3 years.
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Point taken over age, but he has been placed in this race and the improvement could still come as he is lightly raced. 10 is not ancient for a chaser, we shall see.
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I congratulate you on your thread though - the reasoning and the honesty.
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Thank you, it is and always has been an honest blog but sadly there were some who chose to rubbish it in an unpleasant manner because they refused to accept the truth.
The thread helps keep me focussed and continues to be profitable, cue bad day! |
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Well an awful result and the first poor losing trade for sometime. Nothing matched above layed price and all cover trades at less.
Credit to the horse who apart from jumping right went the same speed and it was enough for third. |
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Layed Brass Monkey @4.2 3.15 Southwell
Not sure what to make of his win at Stratford where the favourite failed to travel and he clung on to win. Up 7 for that is acceptable and still in theory off a platers mark. Something tells me he looks far too close to Blue Top who could be much better than this mark and there are others to consider. From a trading perspective slightly worrying in that he could try and make all and make it difficult for counter trades to be matched so a bit of patience needed but pre race drift possible in a competitive contest. GL all. |
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No excuses there as he was one of 2 to operate on the ground. The Walford horse must be better than that but still thought it would run well.
Not a disaster as some matched pre race but 2 dents to a good run and Saturday always hard work laying good horses. When you see people laying Wayward Prince for a place@ 20 last week I will always work with the criminals. |
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Layed Sendiym @4.2 4.0 Kelso
This looks short to me for what is basically a moderate horse who has done well but now races off a mark 19 pounds higher than when his decent run started. His fall at Sedgefield happened when he was on the retreat and the possible confidence issues should give some potential IR and 4.2 looks good starting point. Not a great race with obvious dangers but a likely strong 2nd favourite and some unexposed types should give a decent trade. GL all. |
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Looks like he has lost his confidence and would take him on again. Probably not get the chance as imo a break beckons as softer ground with the emphasis on stamina would not be helpful.
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Layed Bendant @8.0 and 8.2 3.35 Ffos Llas
Racing off its highest mark on the back of what appeared to be a good run at Exeter last time. This is a competetive race and one that for me will be difficult for Bendant. His jumping at Exeter was awful and he carries a welter burden on gluey ground which if you add the fact his confidence might not be great I am happy to oppose. Scope for a further drift and should be some IR if he does things the way he did last time. GL all. |
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Interesting run in that he jumped well despite his tired late fall which he did not deserve. On the way he travelled and ran he probably is worth his rating so got that bit wrong.
An easy green on the drift but would be wary of taking him on again other than IR if the fall has knocked his confidence. Doormouse looks one to back next time after an interesting ride at MR. |
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3.50, sixth race
The Stewards held an enquiry to consider why Mr O J Murphy, the rider of DORMOUSE, unplaced, had used his whip down the shoulder in the backhand from the final bend. Having heard his evidence and viewed recordings of the race, they found him in breach of Rule (B)54.2 and guilty of improper riding in that he had used his whip contrary to the Conditions of the Race. They suspended him for 7 days on days to be notified to him by the British Horseracing Authority. |