Delta, each horse has its own profile, this fellow would have probably been competitive until late on so I was happy to take the profit pre race. The selection yesterday Persian Herald was the opposite where there were substantive reasons to think the IR angle would be worth waiting for.

I always try to avoid frontrunners with the selections as if nothing is matched pre race it becomes pure chance and you only get matched when they are in reverse. There have been winners like Brass Monkey and Double Chocolate where they proved losers with little pre race matched and under odds trades IR, it happens.

gerard

If you look at Jonnie Skulls previous run back in 2009 over hurdles he was prominent but did not front run. My view on Stratford was simple, he would not get the trip but the most likely way he might would be with a patient ride. The thinking was he would pull and blow out if restrained. He has been tailed off in every hurdle run since.

Some of my smallest wins have been when horses hit 20s 30s and in Standing Ovations case 70s because the early market went against me. If you look at the overall profile of the selections you will be hard pressed to find a confirmed front runner.

As a general rule I look to get 60 per cent green pre race but it depends on the traits of each horse. You only need to look at the profile of some of the selections to realise they are close to certain to trade much higher than BFSP.

To be honest I am a little surprised you are questioning what I am doing here as there are plenty here who are doing exactly the same! NH racing gives you plenty of clues and I don't have a monopoly on either accessing or using what is at times the obvious!

gerard

As I said earlier in the thread I rushed the title of the original post as I got overexcited when I saw JS running over timber. I totally accept that I should also have mentioned the trade angle but I did post some of the cover trades and it WAS a winning trade.

Thankfully we live in a democracy and you are free to question my integrity. There are people on here who know me from visiting our lovely holiday homes, there are people on here who know me from horses I have owned and the tripe I have bred!

I can guarantee you are in a serious minority when it comes to questioning my honesty.

You worry about my integrity Gerard, your sanity is of concern to me.

Firstly, we are all adults on here and how people use, if they do, the selections posted is up to them. I usually place the initial trade and immediately feed in keep bet counter trades, this has been covered on here.
After being out all morning felling a leaning nut tree all the counter trades had been taken and a decent green in place. I was a bit surprised as some drift was expected but the AP factor would be a bit of a block.

This is not a rarity but sometimes I post it but not always. If anyone does follow the selections there is some guidance on how to play them but I would have to be seriously deluded to think there are people out there hanging on my every word. After I have posted there does not appear to be any price movement on the occasions I have followed the market so my followers are not that many!

What staggers me is you choose to question what remains a reasoned, thoughtful look at a specific race with comments that for the most part have been accurate. It is also profitable at level stakes result only, and almost without exception each race has been tradable.

As for my intellect, well I speak 4 languages and have an degree in Economics. Could have done better but the courses I preferred were racecources and golf courses.

You would benefit from a term at charm school. I do respect your desire to police the forum for perceived fraudsters like me but that is your choice.

It has taken you lot this long to come to the conclusion that he is a chancer?
ROFFL

flukes

Everything you have said is relevant and has a degree of truth. I do rely on market perception and would be the first to admit that being green before the CB race yesterday was a surprise. Having layed @ 5.7 you are probably right to say that getting out IR would have been difficult without taking a loss. I watched the race but not the market as historically I have gone back in and got it wrong!

As regards Morestead I think the post made it very clear that the combination of the horse and jockey would probably lead to some big IR prices, I think the best priced matched was 32 for me in running and due to my technical imcompetence I would have preferred him to win!

The selections are profitable to level stakes and from a trading perspective less so but that suits my approach. For what its worth CB netted a profit of 28.13 sterling from the 2 sites. At no stage have I claimed that it is hugely profitable and if you look at the comments the use of terms like modest green are the most frequent. Some of the selections that have won have hit huge prices IR but at no stage have I claimed a big green, the comments are 100 per cent honest.

At times it feels like damned if you do and damned if you don't, there have been selections beaten very early and a tiny green achieved and occasionally like Sail and Return at Stratford where he travelled and having had next to nothing matched pre race a close call until 3 out.

The thread has its critics and I understand them to a degree but it remains profitable and totally honest but I do accept there are some who wont accept this.
















On a typical NH day with 2 meetings I can usually find between 8/10 selections and for the most part they remain

Not sure why everyone's giving this fella so much aggro.

If you don't like the thread or believe the trades perhaps it's best to worry about your own profits.

I,ve followed this thread since the initial Jonnie skull post, as that was a horse i laid regularly anywhere away from Yarmouth. I too was shocked when it demolished em over hurdles.NOW WE KNOW is v knowledgeable if you read the thread properly. He is putting the work in and telling an anonymous forum and i for one am pleased financially with the thread. Of course he is going to get it wrong sometimes,  certainly an ironic start but onwards and upwards.I was a racecourse bookmaker for 17 years and now a full time punter for 8 years.I get races wrong every single day but i am still asked daily for an opinion.Do the abusers not get it wrong ? if thats the case they they wouldn't have the time or inclination to post on here.Keep it up NWE and GL.

Thanks Evvo ;)

Thanks for that Logistics, to be honest I have found the last 24 hours a little upsetting, nothing major and having spent a career in person to person financial services I have been called plenty!

I put the selections up because I have a passion for NH and AW racing and especially at the basement level when trading.

Todays selection was a place lay of Dontcalltheferryman @6.4 but I just didn't feel like putting it up. As it turned the market went against me after placing the trade and some below price bailouts were just outgunned by a late drift and some decent keep bets IR. Net Result 8 squidies profit!

Not looking for sympathy as we are all over 18 on here but feeling pretty fed up.

As i make mistakes and get it wrong every day feeling fed up is part of it.Any losing day is a fed up day.Still get a kick out of the winning ones though and had some fantastic ones both bookmaking and punting. As have you re punting it seems NWK ! Delta i could live off the amount of commission and r.@ke i pay per annum so don,t worry yourself. Keep it up NOW WE KNOW , i for one find the free work/information a help, ta.

I lost on chesnut ben. My mistake, could have got out of trouble before fallers and McCoy then intimidating the remaining inexperienced jockeys.Spot on kavvie re views and only a small percentage are from would be t.rolls !

Thanks for that kavvie and The Chubster. AP nicked the race and I for one did not expect him to make all. That's why I like to get some plus trades in pre race, as the infamous JS proved anything is possible.

As regards AP personally I think he can be useful from a trading perspective as his rides  tend to be slightly underpriced and his animated style can knock a price out IR. Countering that most people know this and act on it!

This thread will always be a bit marmite. They used to say never let the facts get in the way of a good story. The facts are it is profitable, I leave it to others to decide if its a good story!

flukes 19 Dec 13 09:17 
My problem with this is that you are usually relying on the market's perception of how a horse will run and the market doesn't always get it right. You got out of jail if you traded out of Chestnut Ben on the back of the pre-race drift because you almost certainly wouldn't have done so during the race as McCoy made all, although this appeared to be more by accident than design. It would be interesting to see your p&l on this selection?

exactly...NOW WE KNOW....post your bets on chestnut ben please.

Also , so what if hes made £8 or £80 on a race or shock he has a losing race ? we all do.! still a good, knowledgable thread.

ur sad.one mans big bet might be a tenner...one others small one might be a grand..cop on

Quite funny the stuff about money. If you read the thread I try to get a liability of five hundred and then reduce through counter trades, if I cant get the right price then it is often less.
If the prices don't move in my favour early on a well beaten selection can result in a small gain, and in the same respect I got matched and green on Chestnut Ben up to my target of 8 and he won, achieved pre race, what do people not understand about this?

Why anyone should ridicule the size of other peoples bets on here is beyond me, it makes sense to bet what you can afford and enjoy it. Some of us take it more seriously than others, so what.

It is not unusual for me to have win bets in the RU and RL markets up to 500 and I will trade these down as the game takes shape. If  Roida wants to ridicule the thread maybe he should look at the Bolton@10 for the championship on the football forum. I have closed most of my positions on Burnley and bagged 28k in the process. It is a reward for doing the research and looking for value which is the same approach I use in racing. No turf flat racing, just cant get into it and have no feel for the horses so avoid it.

For what its worth I am happy to admit that after 10 years on here I remain after commission a net loser but now moving nicely in the right direction through hardwork.

This will be interesting as I've place backed it.

Well he has failed to win again! Maybe a trainer protest going on here?