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Thank you Delta.
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Just looked at that list again, Major Muscari not eating up was hardly a surprise. His journey from Kempton to Wolverhampton would have meant using the M25 M4 and M5, no chance of eating well in the service areas with vegetarian options even more limited.
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Layed Zaplamation @ average 7.2 12.00 Haydock
Been hard work laying this fellow and hopefully more tomorrow. This fella has almost reinvented himself having dropped to claiming company and now racing off his highest mark of 125 and on a hat trick. This looks tough for plenty of reasons, carrying 11 12 in a competitive race when it represents your highest mark will not be easy. He is calmer in his races now after a history of pulling hard, no guarantee if the race is slowly run he wont repeat it however. He becomes tradable for the above reasons but you can add to that he came from what looked an impossible last time to scramble home so there should be money available IR if he is that far off the pace in what for me is a better race albeit the same grade. A steady late run with a welter weight wont be easy to execute. This race has some unexposed horses and looks competitive, this horse looks imo to have overachieved recently. GL all. |
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2nd day running, its a gift NOW WE KNOW
3. Zaplamation 16.7% 09:13 (UKT) |
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Place Layed The Cockney Mackem @ average 4.8 1.50 Ascot
Well with Zaplamation a NR this should be tradable. His mark looks tempting if you put Dodging Bullets in the race but that only tells part of the story. TCM has for me looked more like a conscript in his races than a volunteer and he can as at Worcester be tricky at the start. Add to that he is not the most fluent and this imo looks a tough ask. When you look at the race there is a mixture of potential like Pendra but also battled hardended horses like King Edmund so this may in theory represent a drop in class but not sure that is the case as novice chases are generally a bit cat and mouse whereas these handicaps tend to be pretty relentless. Not totally without hope but for me he would need to get plenty right to make the frame and should drift from here with possible doubts about the start. GL all. |
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Firstly lets hope The Cockney Mackem was just winded, looked that way.
In fairness he was no trouble at the start and travelled until his first mistake and that was pretty much the end of his challenge. These handicaps are usually relentless and this was no different, it also found out Pendra. Only a modest green as the early pre race had me ducking for cover, bit more patience and confidence a bit rattled en ce moment. |
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yep, good work/summary...
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Thanks Logistics, should have put up Battle Group as well for a place lay, nothing is easy but some are easier than others!
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Layed August Hill @ average 5.8 12.30 Wincanton.
This looks a good starting point as he is starting to look regressive after a decent start in bumpers. His tendency to pull is not helpful and as yet he is not fluent either. The race itself is competitive and the favourite is well fancied so he has plenty to do. The only concern is that IR wont be easy as he could lead but a decent drift from here looks likely so near to green by the off would be the target. GL all. |
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Modest plus result thanks to immediate drift and some early IR when he took a strong pull as predicted. Interesting that there was a wall of money for him which forced some under priced bailouts, clearly he was expected to run well and if he had settled he may have won, but he did neither!
Hopefully he will return soon and he would be one to oppose again but this time some help from the market would be helpful. |
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I know NWK personally and he is a good egg. If he said he traded out of a position, I have no doubt that he did. I can understand why the opening post didn't go down well because it was overly bullish to then be traded out, without any indication it might be a trade. However since then he has explained his MO on several occasions so I don't see why anyone can be surprised he has traded out of one now. If the MO is too much for some people to cope with, I would suggest they stop reading the thread.
NWK, Hope you and P are having a great festive season and good luck for 2014. |
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As ever RT good to hear from you and things are good with dinner yesterday a bit like a UN meeting with every continent represented and drinks to match. No sleep now for over 24 hours with the cricket and guests leaving at 5 am! Otherwise life remains reassuringly boring although Morestead provided some fun.
There is nothing in your post either way that I would disagree with although I do find the JS abuse quite funny in that my average lay was under 3 and does it really matter how far he won by, we are paid on the result not the distance! Will send a more detailed email soon and all the best for 2014. |
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rollo....a huge place lay is not a trade....thanks
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Layed Major Muscari @ average 4 16.55 Wolverhampton
Covered this one in a recent write up when he was a non runner and happy to take on from this price. The time off from Kempton may help but as they say a sprint race takes little time to get over. The draw today is less helpful and he can sometimes be tricky at the start so will leave a little IR. The race for me looks better than the other night with some lurking off winning marks and although MM could win he looks very tradable from here. GL all. |
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Nice drift, job done.Good work,ta.
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Left a bit for IR as he could be difficult at the start. Layed @3.55 but admit to some small panic bailouts but already a fair winner. Interesting to see how he goes, I still like to see them beaten!
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Fair play to the horse, he did everything well.
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Layed Polarbrook @5.4 1.05 Kelso
With just one win this is a horse I like to take on. Dropped in grade today might be helpful but his mark is at its highest so take your pick on that. Add to that his jumping can be sketchy and he often travels then hits flat spots and hopefully there should be some IR cover on offer. The race itself lacks numbers but there is a potential improver in Farm Pixie and some tough handicappers so should be competitive. Yes he can win but this looks very tradable from here and should be profitable either way. GL all |
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Very decent result and with a bit pre race and his normal traits in evidence from flag fall leading to some big IR prices matched.
You could argue that he comes out of the race the best horse after all the errors but that has been the point of this thread, spot the weakness likely to be displayed IR or raise the doubts pre race and let the market do the rest. Sometimes it works perfectly but as JS proved any horse can get things right on a given day. Struggling to get consistency on the pre race market but trading profits on the highlighted selections are very encouraging. |
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Layed Talkonthestreet @5.2 2.55 Taunton
Covered this horse before and he can win this and is now well handicapped. However he looks very tradable from here especially after they way he operated at Ludlow. Several times he was edging left at his fences, hopefully we have some later, and also for me he moved poorly at times. This should allow something IR if repeated, not guaranteed as the problem could have been sorted but for me he remains soft. GL all. |
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Market pre race stopped that from being a great trade but held out for some IR so fine overall. Clearly this horse has a problem as again he jumped left and looked scratchy moving at times.
In fairness he would benefit from better ground but only if he is 100 per cent sound. His mark looks very winnable so he remains for me a soft touch who may end up pointing. |
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be honest NWK it was trading 3. something at the off and only traded higher than 5 from about a mile out. result in the end but surely not what you were looking for.
like i said well done but his two previous winners didnt help its price Market pre race stopped that from being a great trade really |
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the dealer
In a perfect world I would have wanted some matched pre race but only achieved a couple of under priced bailouts to reduce liabilty. Every horse is different and with this fella I was prepared to wait a bit longer IR as you rightly point out it was only a mile out that the race came back to me. If you read the previous write up on this horse you may understand the reason why I waited, not perfect as the 2 in front could have fallen but I was happy to wait. I don't expect everybody to agree with me but I have confidence in my assessment of the selections and in most cases they are pretty accurate. It could lead to a poor result and Double Chocolate did do damage when plodding round at Warwick with nothing matched pre race or IR at over the odds. This thread and method is not perfect and we all need some luck and the key for me is being patient with the market and trusting my judgement, not always easy. |
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Layed General Tufto 3.45 Southwell @6.8
Nice to see this chap back on the scene and he should be as tradable as ever. Can win this and might well do so but he rarely does things in a straight line so happy to oppose from here. Should be plenty IR cover available if he runs to type and some decent prices might be achieved before his late rattle. GL all. |
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Poor result with not enough matched IR as I guess there were plenty reading the race the same way. His normal awful start was absent so nothing matched in double figures which is normally easy to achieve.
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Layed Belle De Fontenay @ average 5.9 13.15 Leicester
He looks tradable from this point and for me he is not the same horse that left George Baker. He travels a bit on and off and his jumping has deteriorated imo. The win at Leicester was down to the way the race was run rather than merit. A decent race for this grade with the front 2 looking very solid and others to consider. Very confident this should be a winning trade at worst. GL all. |
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Good summary, nice drift pre always helps ;)
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Thanks Logistics. An excellent result with plenty of pre race for a change and just a few IR to do the rest. He does not look the same horse and would be against him again, might see him on the AW.
The result was even better as I was going to claim the winner after it finished 5th in a seller at Leicester but as ever communications let me down. Next best thing is playing owner without the bills so a terrific result today with a chunky win bet and no transport or jockey fees! Interesting to see if he is sold as I would think he would be fairly interesting although fences don't look right for him. |
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Those of us who foolishly assumed this thread was about what a massive place lay Jonnie Skull was (don't know where we got that idea from)were quite surprised to find out that it was REALLY about trading. Now it seems it is also about aftertiming "chunky win bets".I'm having a bit of trouble with my shower at the moment, so I look forward to the day when NWN announces "Of course, people who know me well will realise the real purpose of this thread deep, deep down was to offer free impartial plumbing advice". Fingers crossed...
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Our splendid collection of listing buildings have a total of 7 showers so like you they are a pain at times.
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If I owned a splendid collection of listed buildings I would DEFINITELY spend lots of my time trying to gain people's congratulations for my efforts to trade a small green on horse racing markets - I think you are very wise.
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Thanks gerard, always appreciate your kind words.
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Good work yet again now we know.
It would seem the ability to read form and profit from it certainly brings in its fair share of frustrated moaning gamblers. |
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Thanks, the reality is I work very hard at NH racing and have done the roller coaster of planning gambles which were for the most part successful as I had and still have a huge trust in our trainer but life moves on.
It suits me better to nick bits and pieces from what I believe is an ability to spot weakness in horses and profit from it albeit a little at a time. The abuse this thread attracts does upset me as JS was put up as a place lay and I would hardly been the only one bemused by the result. His BSF was about 3 and he has been tailed off in every run since so no major damage was done and he remains a winning horse for me. As for after timing winners I made it clear earlier in the thread that I traded a large profit out of Sir Reginald before the race that he won at about 12 after listening to connections, hardly bragging is it! |
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Layed Royal Alcor @6 6.0 Wolverhampton
Likable horse who tries and hard to knock his win ratio and if improving again could win. This looks tough though for me and there has been plenty of money against this fellow and you can see why. His mark is at an all time high and this is not the type of race that he usually finds himself in. He looks too close to Kashmir Peak who probably has more to show on the AW and the other 2 fancied horses are consistent and useful. There is also a suggestion that he is better fresh so enough imo to oppose on what looks a stiff task. GL all. |
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Modest result with the immediate market working ok and then turning quickly. Been busy on family stuff and did not see the early market on this fellow which must have made plenty for some, well done.
The horse ran as expected, simply not good enough off this mark and imo will be seen next in claimers. Off to Yeovil to watch the Mighty Clarets so a day off punting. Have a great weekend everybody. |
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Layed Beau Lake @4.2 4.0 Plumpton
Never keen to lay a potential frontrunner but I think this looks a tough ask. The mark is high enough and can race off lower in the future, tend to ignore claims unless the rider looks a real talent. Not sure what he achieved in his last win as the favourite ran itself into the ground and left him with little to beat. When you look at the race it is not easy to find in form horses but as ever with handicaps there will be those hitting potential winning marks even if their form looks modest. Would prefer to get plenty of cover done pre race and have the feeling there will be opposition but still would leave some IR as I don't think he will be good enough in what should be a true run race. GL all. |
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Frustrating NR, hope the horse is well enough to take on soon!
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Layed Zarzal @ average 6.4 3.10 Ludlow
Nice to have a Z in the list of trading horses after the retirement of Zimbabwe! Covered this fella before and would be against him again today as the ground is a huge factor with him and just cant see him being at his best today on this surface. His chase mark remains very high and my feeling would be that the spring and a few wide margin defeats might be needed before he becomes competitive again. Not a bad little race and he could win this on decent ground but he looks tradable from here and FL last time he clearly failed to operate from early in the race so will leave a bit IR unless the pre race drift is massive. GL all. |
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Hopefully all is well with the horse who ran well enough but as expected was paddling on the ground from 5 out. Modest green with some matched pre race but patience rewarded.
He looks well and is capable of winning on better ground but the fall would put me off so would probably oppose again. |