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for the new year(3) with a twist.....
for the new year(3) with a twist.....
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Foxcub
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My fault probably, had Foxcub as a Placepot-banker. Had doubled up in the two previous legs and with 2 x 3 x 3 horses in the following races, I wonder how much that tumble costed
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Free to Dream
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UL Rob
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therobster27 unlucky with Foxcub
gl with the last one |
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It's a NR virgin
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Just out of curiosity sigge did your other permed horses place??, sickner if so.
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Bet for day 323. 1.00 E.W. L15 B365, BOG.
Summery Justice 3.15 Ascot 10-1 Population 3.50 Ascot 6-1 Meetings Man 17.10 Wolverhampton 4-1 Miguel Grau 19.10 Wolverhampton 6/4 write up + update to follow..... |
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The best bets on the Ascot card Imo come in the last couple of events, and in the 15.15 Summery Justice just about gets the nod in a trappy affair, yet despite the fact he arguably doesn’t look that particularly well handicapped he appears on a winnable mark, and his double figured price may just prove to be value. He will of course have to jump better than when last seen, but that was a far superior contest than his assignment tomorrow. I’m very much of the opinion that he’s a much happier horse going right handed, and he also looks to very much require an easy surface, or at least a one with some give in it to run his race. Form going right handed with the prefix soft in the described going reads 3-4-1-1-4-1-3, compare those statistics to going left or on ground without the soft prefix and you get … 9-PU-1-(18)-9-F. Given the right conditions he does go well fresh, and Imo Ascot may suit, and with the yard in reasonable heart presently it may be folly to ignore his chance.
The conclusion to the card see’s a fairly tight knit affair, and no doubt the form students would have began to make sense of this race starting with the improving novice from the Nicholls yard, and the course specialist Dunraven Storm. However I believe it could pay dividends to side with Population, who seems to have a very workable mark for tomorrows contest. He is another to a lesser extent that seems suited to a right handed track, having already shown a liking for Ascot in his bumpers, he shown good form at other right handed venues, and not so good going left(albeit in a couple of very warm events). Lto making his seasonal and handicap debut was a never nearer 3rd in that class 2 event, doing all of his best work in the closing stages, running on with purpose. He has kept more than fair company as a first season novice, and could be very nicely weighted with his pipe opener out the way, with Jack Quinlan able to alleviate an additional precious 3lbs. A little later at Wolverhampton runs Meetings Man, and is another that looks handicapped to play a part. Graham Lee now takes over from the claimer that rode him Lto, and looks certain to appreciate the stronger handling, and should be in the mix where it matters, given a decent pace to aim at. The last leg is a bit of a damage limitation runner as regarding the bet, having not had a fancy for any other runner within tomorrow’s cards, and thought that Miguel Grau could well trade at odds on. Although 6-4 is not going to get you rich, it may help the bet along quite nicely, and form of his latest race appears strong given the level of the contest, with the winner following up, and others that were well beaten also lending support to the form. To me it looks as fairly straight forward job at hand, and he looks the main reason why Andréa Atzeni heads to Dunstall Park. |
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Result day 322.
1.00 E.W. L15 1winner + N/R returns 14.00p Profit / Loss -16.00p Total 735.00p |
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robster: They sure did. But luckily the jolly in leg 4 and 6 placed, and I did not have either one of them. If both of them had lost out, then I would have been really sick.
Good luck to you today! |
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Bet day 324. 1.00 E.W. L15 at Haydock with B365, BOG.
Chac Du Cadran 13.15 10-1 Edgardo Sol 13.50 16-1 Utopie Des Bordes 10-1 Noble Legend 12-1 write up to follow....... |
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Today I will be concentrating my bet around Haydock’s excellent card, taking in 4 of their last 5 races. I will be omitting the feature race of the day, it just looks a race to savor as a neutral, with the race looking very much the proverbial aperitif to Cheltenham in March.
Now onto the business of trying to get some much needed winners, and in Haydocks 13.15 you are going to need to stay, and stay very well to land this prize, and Chac Du Cadran did look a one to keep on side from some of his runs last season in these extreme test handicaps. One thing he does is handle bottomless ground, and today’s underfoot conditions are surely going to be extremely testing, and Haydock is a track that may well suit his front running style. This lad did come down making his seasonal reappearance at Carlisle recently, and although it was still too far out to say what would have happened, he was still enjoying himself at the head of affairs full of running, only to be undone by a very soft crumpling on landing type of fall. He is sure to have come on for that outing despite his premature departure, and if allowed to get into a nice rhythm at the head of affairs he will be an extremely tough nut to crack. Now onto the next race, where Imo Edgardo Sol’s chances have been somewhat over looked by the bookmakers, but I believe a single figured price would truly reflect his chance. He seems to mix chasing with hurdling reasonably well, but Imo is not the most natural of chasers, and after putting in an error prone round of fencing on his come back run, quickly reverts to the smaller obstacles. I’m certain that run would have sharpened him up, and Nick Schofield was far from hard on him, coming from a very uncompromising position at the rear of the field, to be a never nearer 7th in a race that suited the prominent horses( 1st,2nd and 3rd for the majority of the race finished 1st , 2nd & 4th at the line). The ground will almost certainly suit, and has been on the whole a largely consistent performer during his career to date, especially after having his initial seasonal run, with Harry Derham getting some nice runs out of him within some well contested handicaps in the process. The next race on the card is the big fixed brush hurdle event, with plenty looking to hold reasonable pre-race chances. It is an inmate of Nicky Henderson’s that I like, and I don’t believe we’ve seen the true colours of Utopie Des Bordes on theses shores just yet. She did pick up some very nice purses in France prior to finding her way into her current yard, and looks set to leave her seasonal reappearance well behind. Today’s ground will suit much better, as will the step up in trip, with Barry Geraghty taking over the handling from David Bass, and this mare will almost certainly benefit form a decent pace to sit in behind, which she will undoubtedly get in today’s race. Now onto the lucky last, where Noble Legend could be primed for a bold show returning to a venue that looks to suit. He is another that is well suited to the underfoot conditions, and although he finished last of the 12 runners on his seasonal bow, he traveled well for an extremely long way helping to force the pace. He has work to do with Mac Aeda, but I think the step up to this type of trip is exactly what Noble Legend looks to need, with the potential to scale greater heights that Mac Aeda another consideration. You either love his style (is it really a style/) or not, but Andrew Thornton seems to get this horse to run well, and has had a good association with the yard over the years, with Caroline Bailey also looking to have more than her share of success at this venue over the years, with 6 winners from only 11 runners, and a whopping 36.50p level stake profit. |
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Bet for day 331. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365 all 1/4 odds
Tatenen 13.30 Newbury 40-1 Imperial Leader 13.50 Newbury 16-1 Mr Moss 14.40 Newcastle 12-1 Merry King 15.00 Newbury 11-1 (5places) write up to follow..... |
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Your in my camp 3.50 ................G.L.M8
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I’m surmising that’s the 13.50 mange ?
 Tomorrow’s racing is for many a pointer to the festival, and I for one have been looking forward to At Fishers Cross & My Tent Or Yours making their seasonal reappearance since Aintree last season, and like busses two come along at once. Although I’m of the opinion backing odds on shots is the quickest way to the poor house, I will however be relaxing that rule tomorrow, as I have indulged myself, going very much against the grain, in a modest double on the pair at their respective odds with B365 of 10-11 & 8-11 (9-4 the double). Imho, we could well possibly be looking at these horses being serious Cheltenham contenders, and I know that if that’s the case they may not be fully tuned to the minute, but if they are to be serious candidates for such races as the world hurdle & champion hurdle, they really do need to be winning their races tomorrow. Now onto the much more speculative scene of attempting to get my thread on an upward curve, and hopefully the horses at their respective working man’s prices can all contribute to a profitable day? Tomorrow’s 13.20 see’s the return of an old favourite of mine Tatenen, and although I’ve never won on the beast to date, he’s a horse that does posses the surprise factor, and Imo 40-1 is a ridiculous price considering the company he has kept. His best day’s may well be behind him, but on his mark of only 128 is he really a no hoper as the market would suggests? I’m of the opinion not, and regardless of how poor his seasonal reappearance record looks, it may well be very deceiving. All of his seasonal bows to date have been class 1 affairs, bar the one year when it was a grade 2 novice chase, and now finds himself contesting an affair miles away in class than his usual. Last year’s seasonal bow was a race that he must have traded fairly short in running, looking to be tanking along at the head of affairs in a well assembled field, having plenty in trouble prior to going out like a light on the turn for home, yet still managing to out run his massive odds. He has dropped a very nice 16lbs since running in the national and Whitbread at the end of last season, races that were in truth miles out of his staying comfort zone. Tomorrows Fulke Walwyn trophy looks a race that is distance wise much more suitable, and as stated has his sights well and truly lowered in the class department, and in a very open race it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world to see him run well. The next race at 13.50 see’s the return of Imperial Leader, and reading between the lines the stable do think he’s got the attributes that can elevate him to the top. The last few novice hurdles he’s ran in have worked out fairly well looking at those races on the whole, and always looked the type that one would hopefully excel to more than just a handicapper. He does take in a handicap on his seasonal reappearance, and the vast majority of opponents look to be either on the decline, or thoroughly disappointing. Couple that with a couple coming back form lay off’s through injury and your initially ultra competitive handicap looks very dubious to say the least. As 16-1 shots go he must be one, if not thee least exposed in the field, and if the first time tongue tie has the desired effect with his breathing he has the untapped ability to make his double figured price look ridiculous. My next selection is Mr Moss, and having backed him Lto I’m prepared to give him another chance, with Paul Moloney making the journey to Gosforth Park for this one and only ride. I may have been a little premature in siding with him Lto, as he may well be a horse than needs a few runs from a break to get fully tuned to racing pace, and via a process of elimination concluded his current price of 12-1 represented fair value in the face of the opposition. Mr Moss ain’t got that many miles on the clock, and seldom does Evan Williams send a runner up to this venue, like wise Paul Moloney comes to ride one, this in itself could be a significant pointer to the chances of Mr Moss, who may be primed for a big run. Tomorrow’s renewal of the Hennessey is lacking in the class of some recent renewals, and I’d be amazed if there were a horse within the line up capable of winning a Gold Cup, like recent winner’s Bob’s Worth and the mighty Denman have been. It’s also a race where big weight carrying performances seem the norm, this down primarily to the ultra classy horses that generally contest this event, but my bet revolves around a light weight, but let’s hope just in the weight sense. Merry King went into my note book when beating all bar impressive winner Houblon Des Obeaux in his recent seasonal bow in the United House Gold cup. On the evidence of that race he looks like he could still be harboring enough from the handicapper to give him every chance in tomorrow’s event, and due to AP’s riding commitments at Newcastle, Richie McLernon again gets a chance to show case his ability on the bigger stage as he tries to go back to back on big race Saturday. Merry King Imo looks set to extract revenge on Houblon Des Obeaux, and uphold form with Triolo D’elane in last months United House Gold cup race, and looking at that race both he and the winner put in an impressive round of fencing as anything else in that particular line up. I personally thought Merry King look’s most likely to appreciate the extra yardage in tomorrows contest, having been unlucky to have bumped into the well regarded novice Rolling Aces and then hardy staying type Cannington Brook this time last season. Merry King finished his race off really nicely Lto, very much indicating there was petrol in the tank but not that extra gear to maximize it, and they don’t usually mess around in a Hennessey, and can see Merry King appearing on the scene at some point at the business end. |
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Result(s) days 323 & 324.
1.00 E.W L15 1 place return 4.50p Profi / loss -25.50p 1.00 E.W. L15 1 place return 1.45p Profit / Loss -28.55p Total 680.95p |
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booom rob 40/1
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Wow what a price-Horse pi55ed up
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please please get a double
p.s thank you |
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VWD Rob
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1 of mine.............I had him down as a R/H horse........
VWD M8 |
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great tip rob,well done.
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good start ... gl
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n1 g/l next two
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merry king places.wd rob
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unlucky Rob, that wud have been a nice double, hope merry king finishing 5th means you get a place double?
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fancy merry king a bit for the welsh national,thought the ground would be a tad fast today.
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well done
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Yes thankfully Merry King squeezed in (5th) to salvage my day somewhat, feel a shade disappointed considering the 40-1 start I had, never the less it claws some back what I’ve recently lost and hopefully I can start getting a few consistently in the frame from here on in. Only gonna have a handful of stabs at doubling the bank (209.05p needed) between now and 31st Dec, so really needed to start making things count.
Result day 331. 1.00 E.W. L15 1 winner + 1 placed returns 140.00p Profit / Loss +110.00p Total 790.95p |
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40/1 start could of been mega
w/d |
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wd rob, just one more place would have more than doubled your return.
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Defo, and very nearly went with Hey Big Spender in that 14.40 at Newcastle, having looked well handicapped and a decent record second time out, as well as in November... I'm still kicking myself
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As they say in the trade, you hit the post, all the best Rob.
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At the end of the day Rob............I do the E.W. treb £1 E.W.on my initial thoughts.................the machine tells me that I will win £1,200..........that marks yer card..................
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Bet day 332. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, BOG.
Daymar Bay 13.00 Leicester 7-4 Nicene Crede 14.25 Carlisle 7-2 Dovils Date 14.35 Leicester 8-1 Amore Mio 15.00 Carlisle 5-2 Write up to follow…… |
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It seems to be a feast or a famine as regards to top class NH racing within Britain during a weekend, and once again racing on a Sunday can be described as quotidian at best. However with a little time on my hands yesterday evening and early this morning I’ve managed to find a quartet to make up a L15, and although not as elaborate in price as yesterdays offering, hopefully collectively they can be just as effective in generating a little profit on the thread.
In the first race at Leicester I’m relying very much on a note book horse, and having looked to under perform in a couple of novice hurdles at the back of last season was given a mark of 102 to start his current campaign. The yard wasted no time in getting this lad over the bigger obstacles, yet where prepared to race 8lb wrong at the weights, which made me think the run could possibly be a nice “ahem” introductory ride. However some one in camp Lavelle must have had itchy fingers the previous evening to the race, and the fancy 14’s and 12’s a plenty with the firms that had priced up where hypothetically wiping their boards fairly rapidly as a gamble snowballed. It was even smashed off the boards on course, 5-1 into 7-2 in no time at all, and if Gavin Sheehan could have ridden that race again he wouldn’t have left the win money in the satchels. During that contest he rode a very patient race, trying to get this fellow jumping well above all else, and as they turned into the straight he still had plenty to do. After jumping the 2nd last on his way to the final fence I was thinking will a horse race was eventually break out, but when this dawned on the jockey over the last it was all too late, and couldn’t quite real in the winner that he’d spotted 10 lengths before jumping the final fence, ½ a length the beaten distance at the line. He’s sure to come on a bundle for that run, and I’d be confident he’s still ahead, if not well ahead of his current mark, with his jockey getting his chance to amend that ill judged ride. Now the first visit of two at Carlisle, and although plenty of horses have come in for support last night in this race, I just can’t get away from the chances of Nicene Creed, and with Paul Moloney having other commitments this horse will surely benefit from the Jason Maguire treatment. He has outran his odds of 20-1 twice this season, hitting the frame on each of those times, looking very much each run was moving him towards optimum fitness levels. Having personally though he is there I’m on, and firmly believe Carlisle’s 25F in the mud will be just up his street, and I personally thought if the run in to his latest contest was running up the Carlisle hill he’s have reeled in the winner, regardless of the distance he was beaten. The yard are in very good heart presently, and use Jason Maguire generally with good effect, and can visualize this lad grinding his rivals into submission on the excruciating run to the line. Dovils Date has been eased a couple of point with B365 overnight, yet at 6-1 I thought him to be fair value, so very happy to have him on side at the 8’s this morning. He was nothing more than a fair handicapper on the level, reaching a BH rating of 72, but did have plenty of winning and placed form over 12F at around that mark. He made his way into the hands of Tim Vaughan at the back end of the summer last year, and new connections wasted no time in sending him on his jumping venture. He did making a very pleasing debut, and winning with plenty to spare at Musselburgh, yet it would be fair to say he did not look the most natural to the hurdling sphere. Connection’s then set their sights considerably higher at grade 2 level for the triumph hurdle trial, running well but very much out of his depth, with a similar story to be told of his next run at Newbury prior to being put away. I’m not entirely certain whether the lengthy absence since then has been through injury, but comes back on what looks a workable mark of 120. I’m also of the opinion the ground during his last couple of engagements would not have suited, and now reverts back to a track fairly similar to that of Musselburgh, with a couple of nice long reasonably long straights to run at on much more suitable underfoot conditions. The stable can ready a one from a lay off, and if Dovils Date as ironed out those small irregularities with his jumping he could have plenty more to offer now going handicapping. The last leg is back at Carlisle, and just like Nicene Creed I think Amore Mio will love the underfoot conditions on this ultra demanding course. Connections look to have placed him well considering the hike in weights, and have nothing to spare in this 0-105 contest. Having been quietly fancied on his seasonal bow at Hexham he stayed on well enough without looking likely to win, Imo he looked to be hating the quicker underfoot conditions described as good, and I’m fairly sure he looked to change legs or loose his action as a result about 50yards are so from home. Lto Peter Buchanan made sure there would be no hiding place over an extended 3miles in the mud at Ayr and Extracted revenge on his Hexham victor. They had the race to themselves a long way out, and at one point Amore Mio looked like he was going to come off second best, but come the line was bounding away, in fact on the run to the line you’d have thought he’d just joined in. The yard continues to tick along nicely, and if this horse sets the type of pace I’m expecting his rivals will undoubtedly know they’ve been in a race. |