Cold Turkey (imo)

gl Rob

  Mmmmmhhhhh 

Probably had enough of being questioned by him ^

Bet day 311.    1.00p E.W. Lucky 15

Swiftly Done 13.50 Doncaster 14-1
Eton Rifles 14.25 Doncaster 5-1
Twelve Strings 15.35 Doncaster 20-1 (5places)
Four Winds 16.05 Doncaster 6-1

All ¼ odds BOG, 2 x odds 1 winner……

Well through one thing or another it’s been a case of long time no here from me, and prioritizing my time personally took me away from the forum, this thread and the competition threads.  Firstly I’d like to apologies to the punts for just disappearing with out a trace, and to Ryanwee for failing to see out the MANL series, as through one thing or another I did not get around to offering my apologies back then.  My time is still very tight, but I’m now in a position where I will solely be  having a crack at finishing the Lucky 15 thread I started(possibly  Saturday / weekends only), and if I don’t double the bank then at least try and consolidate the reasonable chunk of  black it’s currently in.

I suppose the biggest handicap of the day is as good as starting point as any, and I don’t know about you but I narrowed the November handicap down to about 20. Saying that after much deliberation I did manage to skittle the race down to a few 4yrolds in the form of Swynmor, Nicholascopernicus and Twelve Strings. It is the latter I’m pinning my hopes on, with his latest win picking up a penalty that undoubtedly made sure of his participation today.  That latest race was only a class 4 over 14F,  which does temper enthusiasm some what in relation to winning a November handicap,  but after being anchored at the rear came through under a hand ride to win with any amount in hand, looking like Ellison could  have brought things to the boil perfectly for today’s race. Admittedly today’s test will be a totally different kettle of fish, but saying that I can’t help thinking the solid gallop which he will get over this trip on the ground should be right up his street, as would it with the other couple aforementioned beasts. The yard look to be in reasonable heart, and without hitting the winners the yards horses are running consistently well at present, and snapping Chris Hayes up for the ride this afternoon makes it all the more interesting regarding the chances of Twelve Strings.

The 13.50 on the same card is equally as competitive, but after going through the runners and riders have concluded Swiftly Done must have a cracking chance providing he can get a position in the race early. The key to this horse’s chance lies definitely underfoot, with a soft surface a must for optimum performance. His last couple of efforts on soft ground have been better than the bare result, notably Lto over a mile at Newmarket. That day the horse seemed to be unlucky in the fact that almost the entire field after racing a few furlongs made a bee line for the rail he was handy and hard up against. First impressions of the race alluded to no case to answer in terms of a hard luck story, however he had no real space to get into his stride for the majority of the final few furlongs only having one horse or another to run in behind. He did get daylight late in the day, but as is his style ran on at the one pace, finishing with plenty of running left in the tank. Today’s mark with the 3lb allowance entitles him to get competitive, with the horses last 7 runs on soft ground with marks ranging between 85-90 producing  a form line of 2-1-1-1-4-6-4, many in  big field handicaps. The lad on board has certainly made progress this season in terms of his ability, and keeps the partnership in tact , with the race looking certain to be ran at a good clip he could be grinding it out at the finish given a clear uninterrupted passage.

My next selection is uncharacteristically for me in a non handicap, but at his “bet to nothing” price Eaton Rifles makes plenty of place appeal, and could help the bet on in some shape or form, especially with the ¼ odds concession B365 are offering. He is another who seems to excel with plenty of dig underfoot, with most of his notable successes coming in the mud. For me another notable thing regarding this lad’s chance is the time of year, and for me he is most definitely an autumn performer. Throughout his long and fairly distinguished career from September through November he has posted lifetime form figures of 2-1-3-1-6-2-2-2-3-2-1-4-3-1-1-2.  On his seasonal debut in October he belied his years, and looked as good as ever when narrowly failing to hold on to the in form Steps, and that should have brought him on a bundle considering the trip would have been a sharp as he would have liked it. This track suits him very well, and providing the draw is not too much of an inconvenience should be very much up to being involved in the finish.

Now onto the lucky last, and I rely on a horse that can count himself very unlucky not to have made the podium Lto, which I would probably put down to the ride. That horse being Four Winds, who undeniably had the potential to be very smart, prior to injury which kept him off track for 4 year.  Imo he was a horse rated in the region of 105-110 without reaching the ceiling of his ability, but now has found himself contesting claimers with his mark a shadow of what it could have potentially been. In the grand scheme of things and the context of this race 73 looks fair, even more so if you consider his poor handling Lto. That day he was swinging along for what seemed an age in behind horses that were under the pump and tiring, with Shane Kelly in no great hurry to extricate Four Winds out of the pocket he was in. In truth he finished a never nearer 6th, without ever really having a race, but he did look at ease on the surface which had plenty of cut in it. The race looks sure to be set up nicely for his style of running, with so many prominent racers in the field it’s surely going to set up for a closer, with this horse Imo fitting the bill.

Goodness me Robs.....what coffee do you have in the morning

Reading War & Peace won’t win you any money tho will it, not saying reading this will but it might…  Nice to see you still have that sense of humor Norfolk

therobster27,

Good Luck, always!

Good luck Rob.

Bet for day 317. 1.00 E.W. L15 @ Cheltenham with B365

Mr Moss 13.05 16-1
Sew On Target 13.35 11-1
Whisper 14.40 8-1
Diamond Harry 15.15 8-1

write up to follow......

Tomorrow’s card at Cheltenham most definitely wets the appetite for Saturday, and having perused the card have decided to have a small investment, with the aforementioned horses making various appeal….. and here’s why…..

         The first event on the card pretty much looks a race that is Standing Ovations to loose, who has improved out of all recognition throughout the autumn thus far. It’s plain for all to see that the 7lb penalty incurred for winning his last race should not trouble him in his 5 timer bid, but more the combination of new jockey, never running well left handed, stiff track and 6th run in only 54 days may collectively conspire against his cause, and could just be worth apposing him at his prohibited odds of 6-4 ish. 
         With such a hot pot being in the race it makes a nice shape for the E.W. punter to get involved, and at his nice double figured price of 16-1 I thought Mr  Moss could give his supporters a decent spin for their hard earned. He started his campaign off recently with a spin over hurdles, over a very inadequate test at that. He did travel comfortably for the vast majority that day, Imo looking very much out of place over timber. Despite this he still held every chance on the run to the final flight, but as you would expect found lacking the turn of foot in the closing stages, with Paul Moloney sparing him a hard race with his next assignment in mind. After starting off in a novice hurdle last season ran a couple of good races Nto, being no match for a couple of extremely well handicapped individuals in Wyck Hill & Fill The Power, then bumped into another that had become well treated in the shape of Quentin Collonges in the Grimthorpe. The jury’s out on whether the track will suit, having been a rag when trying to give weight to a well assembled field of novice chasers, but trip and ground should be fine. For an 8yrold he has very low mileage and may still have improvement left in the locker.  I personally have him around  10-1 shot, and take out the fav Imo he’d be about 11-2, so in my eyes at his price makes nice E.W. appeal.

    Like Mr Moss, Sew On Target is another that has made a pleasing reappearance, and apart from mullering the 2nd he put in a decent round of fencing over 20F on course Lto, looking like the race was very much needed. That day he possibly bumped into a couple of reasonably handicapped animals in Johns Spirit & Astracad, with the latter only finding one too good in a grade 2 contest recently, and the former a warm order for tomorrows main event.  Coming back in trip could well prove to be in his favour, as could the extra forecast juice in the ground. As far as the principles in the betting go he has pieces of form this time last year that could account for Anay Turge, and therefore at the weights through a line through that horse East Lake, and also looks to hold Renard at the weights on his latest run. It’s all of course hypothetical,  will it work out in reality?  who knows, but think any double figured price for Sew On Target to big regardless of how it pans out tomorrow.

The next on the card is possibly my strongest fancy, and Whisper looks a second season novice to keep very much on side judging on his penultimate one.  Nicky Henderson has obviously thought a lot of this fellow from day one, pitching him in at decent level on his second start as a novice over tomorrows C/D, and who would have predicted the form that has transpired from that race. He did keep reasonable company for the majority of last season, signing off with a nice win, putting the well thought of Valdez firmly in his place, along with the disappointing Puffin Billy. Whisper may just be one of those horses that the yard bring on slowly, and I’m sure we’re nowhere near the bottom of his ability, with tomorrow’s class 3 handicap looking very much the proverbial spring board to bigger and better things.

Now on to the last leg of my bet, and I will be relying on a horse that has more than a little something to prove regarding his reputation, that horse being Diamond Harry. In his prime you could set your watch by a run when fresh, with a form line of 1-1-1-1-1-5, but more recently a PU. His mark very much reflects this horses decline, but because of the lack of form since August 2011 the conditions of the race tomorrow play in to his favour, so to speak. I’m not entirely certain how much this fellow will appreciate a cross country course, after the latest race he contested in France I’m hearing was very much a debacle. He has since been freshened up with a break, and the yard are at least in reasonable heart, showcasing this by getting a decent run out of the old rouge Alfie Spinner against what looked a well handicapped winner.

Cheers, Robster. These kind of write-ups is what this forum needs. Good luck and hope they all win for you.

Bet Day 318.  1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, all BOG.


Tour Des Champs 13.50 Cheltenham 7-1
Nadi ya De La Vega 14.30 Cheltenham 11-1 (5places)
Cross Kennon 15.00 Cheltenham 20-1
Lightening Rod 15.15 Wetherby 12-1



          The bet starts off with the longest race of the day, and having backed more than a few of the field in my time (with plenty of success) It was very much a case of not letting my heart rule my head.  I’m prepared to take a chance with Tour Des Champs, who as a staying prospect is one of the few within the race that is still massively unexposed, and could be just the type to excel in these types of extreme tests.  He finished off last season with a decent performance in the Scottish National, a race that Godsmejudge turned into a procession, but Tour Des Champs showed some good battling qualities when staying on for 4th, with an abundance of hardy types being out pointed. His seasonal reappearance was the one I was most impressed with, and in keeping Balthazar King honest for the majority of the contest made sure there was no hiding place. Bradley will have caught the attentions of many in that race, coming from a long way off the pace to finish a never nearer 5th, but it was the way that Tour Des Champs after becoming outpaced at a crucial stage on the turn for home, he knuckled down again and was in the process of clearing away from those in behind him on the run for the line. He is even better off with Bradley because of that horse’s participation out of the weights, and also has a huge pull with Godsmejudge for the distance he was beaten in the previously mentioned SN. He looks handily weighted now stepping up in trip, and could be the one to beat.

          Now onto the big un, and although Nadi ya De La Vega did me a good turn in last years thread, she gets the nod again through circumstance. Although she has never won beyond this distance, she has never been asked to when fresh, and her exemplary record first time up now stands at 1-1-1-1.  Her record on course is only fair, but this looks the time of year to catch her, and the ground should be just about perfect. On the downside AP McCoy has not tried to do the weight, I’m not sure these days he simply can’t do this type of weight anymore, but I for one am pleased Nicky Henderson has given Andrew Tinkler the chance to ride a stable horse on a bigger stage. The mare has now dropped to a mark that she can compete off, and Imo looks set to play a part in some capacity at the business end.

        Now onto Cross Kennon, and at his price looked somewhat bigger than I for one was expecting. He now gets to race off a mark of 139, after being assessed to be a 154 horse, and not that long ago in the grand scheme of things. Apart from winning at Cheltenham he has ran with credit in the face of some stiff competition, those races being a couple of world hurdles, but today’s race is a much more suitable level both class and distance wise. He has ran 26F, racking up a form line of 1-1-1-2-2, two of the sequence being a win and a very close second from only two attempts in this very race. He warmed up for another crack at today’s race has he did last season, and has a tremendous record when having that initial run out of the way. He may have to give way to some younger legs in the line up, but with most of them not looking to my mind not up to it, couple that with the fact plenty more look to have longer term agendas this season, he could be value in a race he looks to have been targeted for once again.


          Now onto the last leg of the bet, it would be nice to think I could be sweating now (don’t hold ya breath), but at least in Lightening Rod I would be hopeful of a decent spin.  He is another that seems to run well after his initial outing, usually making significant improvement, and boasts a form line of 1-1-1-2-3 throughout his career. The 2nd  in that sequence was behind non other than Sprinter Sacre in a novice chase, and mixes his races well over both obstacles just fine. He looks adaptable to most ground and seems to like Wetherby as a venue, and with his regular pilot up could be involved off 125 all things considered.

Good luck robster..splendid synopsis

g/l

plenty luck needed today xmoneyx, especially in the manner a couple have alarmingly drifted.

Yes that's true, but fully expected Hasta La Vista to drift, but I'm not as concerned when a Johnston runner drifts as I would be with an Osborne runner, only time will tell

Southwell, as a punter you either love it or hate it, but I for one really like this A.W. venue, and  any punter that is  prepared to put the work in can more often than not gain an edge, with many races at the track revealing more in the form department than initially meets the eye.

It’s no real secret but having a proven performer on the fibre sand is a huge positive, with plenty usually running fairly consistently on the surface. Uncle Brit sort of falls into that category from a very small sample of runs at the venue, and has a C/D line of form in handicap’s reading 1-4-2-3 from marks ranging between 51 – 67. His current mark of 62 just about sums him up, but in the same token nothing else in the field looks to be ahead of their current mark either. He still looked to be in form Lto when not seeing 10F out in the mud at Nottingham in an amateur affair a couple of weeks ago, but certainly gets a mile very well. Despite the wide draw I personally think he has a better chance than his double figured pride suggests, especially if you consider him to the current market leader Uncle Dermot (half his price) who has never won back to back, never won on an A.W. surface, and binoculars were needed to spot him the only time he contested a race at the track.

In the 13.10 Only Ten Per Cent is another who has shown a decent liking for the surface, and is now a full 5lb below his last C/D win (albeit a while back). Lto at Kempton was involved in a little scrimmaging at a crucial stage of the race,  this happening  just before Richard Hughes was about to launch him for the winning line, and it’s fair to say had running left in the tank when sauntering home in behind that day. From a handicap perspective he looks, with the exception of Big Storm Coming, the best handicapped horse in the line up, but the jury out as to how effective the aforementioned animal is on this surface.

Now onto the penultimate race on the card, and I’ve plummeted for another John Jenkins runner that appears to have fell into the well handicapped bracket. She is another, although not prolific on the surface  certainly appreciates it, and has reasonable form on it in the context of this race. She is equally as effective over both 6 & 7F, and Lto looked still to be in form, having come for a look at the front at the distance in her recent Yarmouth race just faded out of things, loosing 3 places close home as a result of SDS not riding her out, and with the yard in reasonable heart could be in the mix when it matters.

In the last, despite running 1 lb wrong in the handicap Pearl Noir drops to his lowest ever BHA rating, just 51. This horse showed his first semblance of stringing some form together in his last couple of runs on this surface, and in particular Lto during an apprentice race over 7F. Although he did not receive the biggest help from the saddle that day, he stayed on nicely, looking like a decent ran 6 on the surface would be right up his street, and judging by the line up looks certain to get that good pace to finish off.

Bet for day 321. 1.00p E.W. L 15 with B365, BOG.

Dormouse 12.50 Warwick 10-1
Pgyama Game 14.10 Hexham 10-1
Saddlers Mot 15.10 Hexham 4-1
Ice Buster 19.30 Kempton 14-1

write up + P&L for today to follow......

Bet for day 322. 1.00 E.W. L15 B365, BOG.

The Magic Bishop 13.30 MR 7-1
Foxcub 13.50 Wincanton 10-1
Free To Dream 14.05 MR 4-1
Nautilus 18.40 Kempton 7-1

Write up to follow later......

Results day(s) 320 & 321.

1.00 E.W. L15  1 winner 1 place  returns  44.95p

1.00 E.W. L15           2 placed returns  26.00p


Profit / Loss                            +10.95p

Total                                    751.00p