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for the new year(3) with a twist.....
for the new year(3) with a twist.....
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Bet day 337. 1.00 E.W. L 15 B365, BOG.
Ballincurrig 8-1 13.10 Sandown Jolly Boys Outing 33-1 14.05 Exeter Merrion Square 7-1 14.55 Sandown Reverb 7-1 15.25 Sandown Today’s bet starts off in the 13.10 at Sandown, and what looks a race that looks sure to throw up plenty of future winners, with plenty looking highly likely to eclipse what they have achieved over hurdles to date, and theoretically some of the current marks within the field could be potentially very lenient. Imo Ballincurrig falls into that category and stepping up in trip over fences looks set to make his latest hurdle mark of 113 look ridiculous. Having been recruited from the pointing sphere his future always looked likely to be mapped out over fences, and he does look physically equipped to take to these larger obstacles. I know it’s very early days in Nick Skelton’s fledgling career as a trainer, but if what we’ve seen so far is the precedent for things to come, this horse could not have found itself in very good hands, with Gina Andrews keeping the association going with a horse she should know well. Over at Exeter I simply can’t resist slipping Jolly Boys Outing onto the bet, and think his price of 33-1 even for a horse of his given ability to be way on the high side. Yes he’s got to put a few lackluster displays behind him from last season, and does not look obviously well handicapped, and having came down far too early on his seasonal comeback when given a patient ride has not shed any light on those statements. He is in here today having to run off a mark of 99, but it is worth noting that his lifetime best run when bumping into a very well handicapped animal, was actually on course over 31 ½ F in April 2012 off 108, on ground very similar to that forecast today. A shot in the dark he may be, but with only 9-09lbs to carry with the lads claim, it would not be the biggest shock in the world to see him figure. In the 14.55 at Sandown Merrion Square looks the bet to me at 7-1, and having traveled very powerfully for an awful long way on his reappearance looks set to come on for that run. After traveling nicely onto the heels of the leaders looked to just lack match fitness, putting in a couple of tired jumps very late on, with Daryl Jacob accepting his chance a long, long way from home. There were plenty in and around him that day that have come out and ran some good races, and Imo Merrion Square looks set to carry that trend on. Having shown a liking for the track by winning last seasons Grand Military, this lightly raced type could have ideal conditions to improve that record, and in the grand scheme of thing could be very fairly treated in this line up. Last but not least it’s the Nicky Henderson trained Reverb, who went into my note book on his latest start. The lad on board gave him an ultra confident ride, producing him nicely to sit in behind the principles approaching the last, but looked to bump into a very nice prospect in Going Concern. He now goes handicapping off a mark that looks very workable, and now has Barry Geraghty taking back over. It’s obviously a field with plenty of other unexposed and improving types, but at his price thought him to hold some value, and a decent run over this less demanding 17F on much better ground looks assured. will update P&L later... |
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robster: Always a cracking good read. Good luck with your bets.
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therobster27 unlucky not to land a couple today ....gl
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Result(s) day 332 & 337.
1.00 E.W. L15 2placed return 4.94p 1.00 E.W. L15 2placed return 11.75p Profit / Loss - 43.41p Total 747.54p |
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Bet day 338. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, BOG.
Lady Kathleen 12.50 Sandown 14-1 Roberto Goldback 14.05 Aintree 16-1 (5places) Frontier Spirit 15.15 Aintree 20-1 American Spin 15.35 Sandown 20-1 The bet starts off in the mare’s event at Sandown, and think Lady Kathleen at her double figured price could be primed to run a decent race. I’m sure her seasonal bow behind Scholastica would have pleased connections, with that rival looking to have had the advantage of going well fresh. Lady Kathleen is now double the price of that horse, and I’d be very much of the opinion she would be much closer today without the subsequent 9lb pull at the weights. When last seen running off this mark last season she bumped into a horse that was thriving, and continued to do so thereafter. I’m certain the better ground today will help, and coming back slightly in trip also looks a positive. The yard are at least in some form, and Lady Kathleen could well have the race ran to suit, and if that last run has brought her on sufficiently she should be involved at the finish. The 14.05 at Aintree has been for me, and I’m sure a few more form students out there a nightmare to assess, with my opinion changing numerous times during my analysis of the probables. I’ve decided to go with a horse I liked Lto in Roberto Goldback, and think he looks set to give David Bass a decent spin. His comeback run was highly respectable, given a patient ride by Nico de Boinville he crept he crept quietly into the race, and although he was never in danger of winning he stayed on very pleasingly in the closing stages. Although Nicky Henderson is of the opinion this horse needs decent ground to show his best, I don’t whole heartedly agree, as he has some decent form in the book on a softer surface, and there should be no excuses on today’s described ground of Good/soft, good in places. He does jump these fences really well, and was set to complete the National (albeit in his own time) bar a soft unseating at the last. His second start back last year was off 11lbs higher in the Hennessey, and was in the process of running a very nice race, tanking along looking to be enjoying the occasion just in behind the speed before another cheap looking departure. This looks a more suitable test than the National, and with a clear round could well ghost into the contest as it falls apart in the closing stages. The next leg of the bet is The Earl of Sefton, and with what looks a field short on experience over these unique obstacles, I’ve went for the stable who usually have an idea of a type that will take to them. It’s arguable that Frontier Spirit may want the ground a little more testing than he gets it today, but has been versatile enough to win and run some nice enough races on good ground. It’s anyone’s guess as to how well he will take to these fences, but at least he has the ability as a horse to find a leg, as displaying on his seasonal bow at Wetherby when jumping the 3rd. I’m sure that mistake would have had plenty of other horses on the floor, but to his credit Frontier Spirit virtually picked himself of the floor to put in an excellent round of jumping thereafter, staying on nicely enough without ever looking like playing a part in the finish. That good run at least bodes well for his second run, with a career form line second time out of 2-2-1-2, and this trip looks ideal, and his form in the month of December also reads well 2-1-2-2-1. All things considered 20-1 could be on the high side. The last leg of the bet is filled with another who is very much in the “taken on trust” bracket, but is another at his price is just about worth taking a risk on. Having only 3 chase starts to date he’s hardly an ideal candidate to be considered for a London National, but the couple of beginners chases he took in during May this year you could have been forgiven if you’d thought he was a seasoned campaigner in this sphere, putting in a decent display of some excellent fencing on each occasion. It’s no surprise really that the most extreme test out of his trio of chases so far has brought the best out in him, as his half decent hurdling form would also have suggested. His latest start on Good firm ground over 17F can easily be forgiven, and although it was Towcester that sort of test was never going to play to his strengths. The handicapper has played his part in proceedings, and has given him some respite to the tune of 7lbs from his mark, which should at least enable him to get competitive. The first time cheek pieces go on for the marathon trip, and with the yard looking in decent heart this horse could run well at extremely rewarding odds now given this type of test. |
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Result day 338.
1.00 E.W. L15 no returns Profit / Loss -30.00p Total 717.54p |
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Bet day 339. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, BOG.
Phoenix Returns 13.25 Kelso 16-1 Bishops Heir 13.55 Kelso 9-1 Fredo 14.40 Warwick 3-1 Amatheyst Rose 15.25 Kelso 5-1 Write up to follow..... |
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Today’s bet starts off in Kelso’s 13.25, and off his current mark I think Alan Swinbank’s horse could well step forward now having his sights set lower in the class department. In contrast to his latest class 2 contest where he was the lowest rated, his trainer looks to maximize his chance with the slight slide in his mark, and goes into this class 4 race top rated. That said Lto at Bangor over 20F in soft ground Paddy Brennan looked quite comfortable sitting off the pace, and was just about to ask him into the contest before stumbling on landing 5 out, giving his jockey no real chance of a sit. He now returns to a much more familiar haunt in Kelso, where he shed his maiden tag under rules over 18f, beating an above average type in Maggio, albeit in receipt of plenty of weight. Being by Phoenix reach, and out of an Oscar mare the better ground he encounters today may aid his cause, and despite Alan Swinbank’s recent years at Kelso being not great strike rate wise, it’s worth noting it’s a course he’s had plenty success at previously with an overall strike rate just shy of 20%.
A half hour later on the card Bishop’s Heir goes to post for his contest, and he is another that could be reasonably well handicapped off his current mark, and reverts back to chasing after his initial reappearance over timber. That day he had to be ridden onto the bridle on a few occasions during the race, yet the further they went the more comfortable he looked, and finished off his race really strongly up the hill, and was eroding the deficit with each stride come the line to a horse that looked to be very much on the upgrade, with that run coming off the back of an 18 month lay off. The lay off may have been by causing himself some damage on good ground when last seen in this sphere on course, but prior to that run his previous couple of chases were very good, beating Carrick Boy and finishing a close second to Merrigo. If he was coming into this race off the back of those spins he would be a 9-2 shot at best, but has at least shown his wellbeing to be sound with that decent spin over hurdles, and is worthy of a crack at this sort of trip, especially around here. Down at Warwick Fredo returns to an extreme test, and hasn’t been in this sort of class (4) since his novice days. He’s ran reasonable in his last couple of spins in amateur events at Cheltenham, both of those races looking miles better than this contest. He is a horse that looks to need a few runs from his return, and had a couple of spins prior to finishing a decent second over C/D to Hey Big Spender a couple of seasons ago off a mark of 128. All of his best races have come between now and February, with plenty of decent efforts over this sort of trip, and the return to some better ground will suit him more than most. Back up to Kelso, and it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Snuker look’s absolutely thrown in back over hurdles. Has he simply improved with age? Or has it been for the switch to the bigger obstacles? I’m in the latter camp. He may have something in hand of that hurdle mark, but how many time have we seen 130+ rated chasers trying to capitalize on much lower hurdles mark to no avail, Imo too many. Amethyst Rose looks to my eye (if you take Snukers mark literally) the 2nd best handicapped in the field, and when gambled on Lto at Hexham near the off, was done so as if defeat was out of the question, and indeed on this occasion the money was nicely placed . That was in a big field competitive handicap, and it was very much a case of if you want to hide a tree…. Put it in the woods, with this race looking not half as competitive as that one. Yes he has been lumbered with a hefty rise in the weights, but the manner of that victory against a fair yard stick on course was impressive, looking like he could have pulled out plenty more as he pulled away on the run to the line. Going up in trip on better ground(by Beneficial) could see this horse in an even better light, and take Snooker out of the betting equation, I’ve got this horse a 6-4 shot. The sneaky bet may well be Snuker & Amethysts against the field, 10-11 looks a reasonable poke all things considered. |
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Having scoured today’s racing yesterday evening and again this morning, I have only managed to find a couple, so will not be doing a lucky 15 bet. I have however had a small E.W. bet on both, plus an E.W. double. These will not be in any way included in my P&L for this thread, but since I had already wrote the two races up last night in the hope I'd find 2 more to accompany them this morning, I thought I would post anyway for your perusal.
I have backed Canadian Diamond in today’s 13.40 at Cheltenham at 14-1 with VCbet, and with everything in life when something looks to good to be true it usually is, horse racing tends to specialize in this hypothesis in spades. In theory he should comfortably account for Zagranagar on 9lbs better terms with the lads claim for ½ a length, and is double his victor price in the book Canadian Diamond has to record a personal best to feature at the finish, but his latest couple of efforts very much indicating additional improvement looks assured. Both of his runs over this C/D have been encouraging, having still looked full of running when plenty looked beaten in a decent Novice handicap last November before a cheap unseating prior to turning in, his penultimate run also served notice of his appreciation for the course. Imo that run is as good a piece of recent form on view in the line up, and although he looked to have things under control turning down the side of the course, he was no match for the decent change of pace from First In The Queue, but did stick on well up the hill, and had the rapidly improving Fox Cub well cooked back in third, with plenty of good form line subsequently transpiring from that race. His latest run is also throwing up some solid Nto form lines, and with James Banks claiming 5lbs and the decent ground I’m certain a big run is on the cards. Onto the 15.15, where more than a few bring good recent form to the table, with plenty of those that do looking set to continue their rise in the handicap. It is however a horse that has not been dramatic in his improvement, and looks very much to be a slow burner in that respect. I have backed Destroyer Deployed at 16-1 with the same firm, and liked him on more than one occasion last season. Although sometimes he has appeared at first glance to under perform in a few of his races last season, on the whole I thought he performed fairly consistently, a few of those being fiercely contested affairs. He looks adaptable as far as ground goes, but I’m fairly certain his trainer has been on record suggesting this horse needs better ground to give his running, which he should get this afternoon. He is another that seems to like the hustle and bustle of these well contested handicaps, especially at this venue. His form at Cheltenham is very sound indeed, having ran a stormer to finish second in a champion bumper, he’s also finished a respectable 3rd behind At Fishers Cross, and another good run when runner up to Big Easy in a huge field in April. Last season he bombed on his final run, as he did the previous one, but as a rule he performs well when fresh having won or been placed in his only 3 campaigns to date on his seasonal bow. Michael Byrne takes off a valuable 3lbs, which could prove crucial to this horse’s chance, and with a decent round of hurdling (can miss a one or two out) he should be involved, with his trainer showing a recent resurgence in form. |
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G.L. Rob...........Id allready bet the 1st one
 ...............on the 3.15 now........... |
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The 2nd 1 seemed to loose a Lenth at every jump......... wants long distance in the mud ?
No doubt could av sold it for a lump after the Chelt bumper  |
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Bet day 355. 1.00 E.W. L15 with Betfred 3 x odds 1 winner.
Safran De Cotte 14.05 Haydock 7-1 Tinshu 14.35 Lingfield 10-1 Cedre Bleu 15.00 Ascot 5-1 Totalize 15.35 Ascot 9-1 All BOG, write up + update to follow..... |
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result day 339.
1.00 E.W. L15 returns 0.00p Profit /Loss -30.00p Total 687.54p |
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Today’s Tommy Whittle at Haydock isn’t the greatest renewal I’ve ever seen, but is none the less a competitive affair, with a fair few looking to hold decent claims. Safran De Cotte is my idea of the winner, and the yard look to have taken their time with him in this sphere after announcing himself as a horse with great potential when outstaying Godsmejudge at Stratford over 23F in soft, with today’s market leader Emperors Choice beaten out of sight. Safran De Cotte should relish today’s test at Haydock a venue he acts on, and looked to bump into a couple Lto on his seasonal bow that were in the improving bracket, that under his belt he should be competitive off this sort of mark. Jake Greenal1 has won on him 4 times from only 6 tries, and looks to get on really well with this fellow, and he also has a very respectable win strike rate for the yard, which is coming to the boil quite nicely in terms of winning form.
Now onto the decent listed race at Lingfield, where a few caught my eye in terms of a winning chance, and at her price I’ve decided to side with the mare Tinshu, who would not be far away at this venue with the race ran to suit. I can see why Hugh Taylor likes True To Form, after sitting at the back Lto in the race that was dominated by those that were setting the fractions, he fairly flew up the (usually unfavoured) rail to finish a never nearer 4th . Tinshu was also involved in that race, in fact finishing even stronger once her stride and stamina came into play finishing on this horses coat tails, and at the weight should finish infont of True To Form given a true pace to run at. She is well drawn today to sit handy and get covered up on the rail, and as stated will benefit from this being run at a decent pace, however the pace to the race is far from assured, but if Hayley Turner screws her loaf, she may well be in a position sitting handy to take advantage of this scenario, and like many holds decent place claims at the very least. Now over to Ascot, and in the 15.00 Cedre Bleu looks to have all the credentials that entitles him to run well in this contest. The ground will be perfect, as is the track and trip. He ran as well as could be expected on his seasonal bow given the ground conditions, and with that under his belt he should be straight enough to do himself justice in today’s contest, and receives plenty of weight from his two market rivals, in the ground may well be the crucial factor between winning and loosing. Now onto the lucky last, and I personally can’t get away from the chances of Totalize, despite the ultra competitive nature of the race. He has form in the book in this sphere that entitles him to be in the mix, and it’s always prevalent to take note when Brian Ellison gets a one fit on the flat prior to a big money handicap over hurdles, and is usually protecting a mark he thinks it’s favourable when doing this. The ground looks set to play to his strengths, and being a 10F horse on the level this trip should be ideal. He has improved his flat mark in winning and running well in his warm up races to a crack at this, and the yard are at least among the winners recently, hopefully the form can continue with a good run from Totalize today. |
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Bet day 360. 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365, all BOG.
Downtown Boy 12.40 Sedgefield 6-1 Count Guido Deiro 14.50 Wincanton 14-1 Long Run 15.10 Kempton 10-1 Ourmanmassini 15.45 Kempton 20-1 write up to follow..... |
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Boxing day is at last upon us, and no doubt for some the few days break we’ve had from British racing may well have seemed like months. Today’s equestrian fayre is as you would expect in a word is chaotic, and having too much choice as a punter is not necessarily a good thing, especially when bar a few races over today’s cards the quality looks as per usually compromised. Having perused most of the cards I found it fairly hard going to select my bet, maybe I’ve indulged into much Christmas festivities, or simply the magnitude of so much choice has simply bamboozled me, but have managed to find 4 all the same………
The easiest to include in my bet was Long Run, and sometimes you simply have to look outside the bare facts of racing to form an opinion. There is no real reason why he should finish in front of Cue Card, Dynast and Silviniaco Conti on their respective running Lto, so it’s obviously not form that’s influenced me in selecting Long Run. I’m a great believer in looking at historical form as well as present performances, and for this reason along with his double figured value have put him up. He is not exactly past his best in relation to the current line up, but because he was so good from a very young age he seems to have been around for ages, and has only ever kept class 1 company for his 16 British starts, the vast majority of which being grade 1 also. How many of today’s line up can boast being placed twice and winning a Gold Cup form just 3 attempts? Or how many could boast that they would be on for a four timer in this race if it were not for the mighty Kauto Star’s intervention. He is yet to finish outside a runner up position going right handed from a very small sample, all of those races being class/Grade 1 contest’s with a form line of 1-1-1-2-1-2. I’m not sure what the 1st time visor is set to achieve today, but if it does help him improve his track record in any shape or form, he’s got to be involved in some capacity today. My next best so to speak is Ourmanmassini, who has hardly pulled up any trees in this sphere to date, but as a result his mark has been given a little respite from the assessor, and now steps back up significantly in trip to try and expose it. His last race at Leicester was not devoid in promise, in fact it was miles better than the bare result would suggest. The race was ran at a bit of a stop / start pace, and in no way looked to suit this horse, and I’m fairly sure Paddy Brennan was hoping for a strong gallop from start to finish to sit off, but did finish to good effect without troubling the three that had broken away a couple of furlongs out. There have been some reasonable lines of form deriving from that race, and this is a horse that will definitely benefit from the first time head gear he sports today (cheek pieces), and with plenty of prominent types in today’s line up he may well get the race ran to suit. The next one I like is Count Guido Deiro at Wincanton, and although he’s not an imposing type in stature for this game, he certainly is very athletic at his fences, and looks to have plenty of stamina a plenty in both sides of his pedigree. It was a little too far out to know Lto at Ascot if he would have been among the principles in the finish, but Adam Wedge was just nursing him onto the heels of the leaders before ploughing through the 13th, giving him no chance of a sit, still not having been asked any serious questions. I’m certain this greater emphasis on stamina is going to play to his strengths, and looks certain to leave is seasonal debut in this sphere well behind today. The fist in the bet was my last to go on, and in truth was struggling to find anything to go with the other three, and a novice hurdle of all races to find a one goes against my grain in betting terms somewhat. Saying that Downtown Boy has got bits of form that entitles him to run a serious race in this line up, and has been really unlucky in the fact he looks to have bumped into a couple with serious potential in his latest 2 starts. The lad on board looked to get a decent run out of him on his penultimate start over today’s C/D in similar ground, and his 7lb claim will be very valuable today in terms of finishing in front of the short priced favourite, but in a race that lacks any strength he should be set for a podium finish of sorts. |
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G.L. rob agree ....LR
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Thank you
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w/d
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Bet day 361. 1.00 E.W. L15 with Laddies (not BOG).
Mickie 14.00 Kempton 7-2 Clonbaban Lad 14.55 Leopardstown 25-1 On Trend 15.05 Kempton 14-1 Milord 15.40 Kempton 20-1 write up and P&L update to follow.... |
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Result(s) day 355 & 360.
1.00 E.W. L15 returns 2.00p 1.00 E.W. L15 returns 45.52p Profit / Loss 12.48p Total 675.06p |
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Today’s bet starts off in Kempton’s 14.00, and personally think Mickie has a very good chance of supplementing last months Newbury win. I did fancy her on a couple of occasions last season, one of those in a listed hurdle here over 21F on G/soft ground, but ran a very disappointing race. Up until that race she had been a model of consistency in her short career to date, and this season already she looks set to surpass her achievements of the last one. She was making a very pleasing seasonal reappearance until unseating at the last at Cheltenham in October, and was plugging on very nicely from a long way out, off what looked like a solid enough pace that had been set by the front running Bygones Sovereign. Nto at Wincanton was a race that would never of suited her style, the modest pace set by As I Am was never going to suit, with the well positioned Highland Retreat taking advantage of a very handy ride by Noel Fehily, with the sprint for home a half mile out never giving Mickie a chance to be involved. Her latest start at Newbury was a winning one, with the pace looking generous from the drop of a flag, and there was indeed no hiding place at the end of that particular race. After being under pressure a long way out Mickie showed tremendous courage to even be involved never mind winning, and ran all the way to the line, galloping all into submission. Today’s ground will suit her even better, and although it may not be pretty I think she will grind this one out, a decent pace being very much the key.
Now over to Ireland for their big handicap of the day, the Paddy Power Chase. Every where I looked in this race I was seeing comments next to plenty of horses in regards to them being doubtful stayers at this trip, and looking at some form lines and history I am in agreement with plenty of those quotes. I have decided to tentatively side with Clonbanan Lad, who is one of those many yet to prove himself at this distance, but he has shown at least me enough to think he can. He made a pleasing reappearance at Listowel, looking to be in need of that outing and tiring very late on behind a half decent prospect in Owega Star. In October he bettered that run when finishing third behind another one of Peter Fahy’s, that horse being Morning Assembly. His most recent start was again in behind that horse and Don Cossack, and while they were at it hammer and tongs a little way in front of him, he could be nursed home in third without really being given a hard race in that grade 2 contest, probably an ideal way to get warmed up and more experience for a crack at this. With a hard race Imo he could probably have finished within 8 lengths or so of that pair, and if either of those couple were in this today off 11-6 they would be a very warm order in the betting, with both those horses very likely to be in excess of 155 presently. Clonbanan Lad looks to be able to travel early in his contests, which is a massive plus in these big fields, but if he’s not involved at the finish it won’t be because of his mark, Imo 133 looks very workable, and the ground looking also in his favour. The next leg of the bet is back at Kempton, and at his double figured odds of 14-1 it could be worth risking a chance that On Trend could return to some sort of form. The fact he has now dropped to 4lbs below his last winning mark may be significant, and the return to a very testing surface is another huge positive. He did look a horse with the potential to make it up into the extreme staying ranks, but for whatever reason has not went on to reach any sort of level in those type of races, and now drops back to a more familiar 3 miles on a more conventional track. I can see this being ran a very good gallop with American Spin likely to be setting decent fractions over this sort of trip, and a decent pace would be very much in On Trends best interests. On Trend’s has a very good 2nd to his name over C/D back in January off today’s mark, and has his chance in a wide open contest. Staying at Kempton see’s Milord running for the last leg of the bet, and he is another that won’t mind the conditions today being by Monsun, and after a little help from the assessor along with Edward Cookson’s allowance his trainer drops him in class in a bid to shed his maiden tag under rules. He is another that would love this to be ran at a decent clip, and at his price of 20-1 he was simply too big not to have him on the bet, and can see him staying on in the closing stages when the flat/ speed merchants have ran their race. |
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Bet day 362 1.00 E.W. L15 with B365 , BOG.
Little Jon 12.30 Chepstow 6-1 Pure Science 13.30 Chepstow 13-2 Tour Des Champs 14.35 Chepstow 20-1 (5place) Frontier Spirit 15.10 Chepstow 18-1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3) Today’s one of my favourite days in the racing calendar, It’s possibly because the Welsh National has always been good to me for winners and places over the years, and have always thought Chepstow in heavy ground at this time of year sorts the men out from the boys. I’ve decided to stay at this venue for the entire bet, in fact I’ve be swayed in to sticking all of my eggs in one basket, Nigel Twiston-Davies being the man with that proverbial basket. Little Jon goes in the 12.30, and was in truth put in the bet after finding I really liked his other 3 on the card, and Imo missing a winner by a trainer when you’ve got the rest of his runners on your bet is a cardinal sin. That said trying to make a case for him to run well was not really that hard, but running well doesn’t necessarily put food on the table so to speak. Deputy Dan looks to holds a very solid chance and I’m guessing he’s probably a horse presently somewhere between 125-130, with scope to be a nice horse in time. Little Jon looks a nice big type, and looks a typical unfurnished type that will grow into a nice horse, his future does look to lie over fences. In all of his races to date he has displayed immaturity, and looks to have exhausted plenty of energy in the early parts of his races pulling for his head. Today’s track and conditions Imo will suit him, as he looks to be all about galloping, and if he can STD can save that petrol early he may give the two at the head of the market most to think about. Pure Science goes to post for the 13.30, and now is sent handicapping of his mark of 123, not too bad considering he was 6th in last seasons champion bumper. He’s kept some very warm company in his first 2 novice hurdles this season, and his latest start in a lesser event was not devoid of promise. The one thing that will be in his favour will be today’s ease in the ground, as his knee action would suggest along with some of last seasons form, and stepping up in trip will also be welcomed. I’m sure he is a much better horse than he’s shown so far this season, and the demands of Chepstow in the conditions may well bring out the best in this young unexposed type. The next egg in the basket is Tour Des Champs, friendless in the market he may be but I’ve been waiting for him to appear from the last time I backed him, and I see no reason why I shouldn’t be giving him another chance regardless of the drift. I’ve always thought this horse will relish an extreme type of test, and they don’t come more extremes as best part of 4 miles in bottomless ground at Chepstow. Tidal Bay’s participation means that plenty are running out of the handicap (including TDC 5lbs), but in this type of race Imo it’s not a great hardship to be running a few pounds wrong, but the ability to handle the ground and relish the test would be far more of a concern. In that department I’ve none, and think he is a horse that wears his heart on his sleeve, and when push comes to shove (which it will) this chap seems to keep on finding that little bit more. Frontier Spirit runs in the last leg of the bet, and is another I’d pinned my hopes (and cash) on Lto, but just never got involved in the Earl of Sefton during his latest contest. He has some very good form on soft and heavy ground, and this sort of trip on a testing tack in these conditions should play to his strengths very nicely indeed. Another reason to believe there could be a big run today is the time of the year, and boasts a form line for December over the seasons of 2-1-2-2-1- and being PU in his most recent run in that Earl Of Sefton. Nigel Twiston-Davies seems to be having plenty of winners and lots running well in this month, I’m personally hoping he can end it on an extreme high, hope being the operative word. |
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How did you finish on this last year, a slight profit showed in the end Rob? Best of luck for the upcoming year!
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