Bet day 116. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15.

The Taj    13.40 Sandown 10-1
Moviesta   16.45 Doncaster 5-1
Rocket Rob 17.00 Sandown 8-1
Medici Time 17.15 Doncaster 33-1

B365 BOG 2 x odds 1 winner, write up to follow....

apologies Medici Time is a gelding, did have my eye on mare  earlier on this morning tho, probably still in that mind set.

coltish ?

My bet starts at Sandown, and although there maybe something at the foot of the weights well handicapped and ready to show improved form to take a hand in the 14.05, thus far I’ve not noticed it. I have however noticed the excellent chance of likely warm favourite Minella Forfitness, who has improved out of all recognition this year in his 3 starts and will likely be a tough nut to crack today. Saying that at 3 times his price I’m quite sweet on Black Thunder to resume winning ways, and has shaped with a degree of promise in all of his starts this season without getting his head in front. He arguably should have won on his 2nd start back at Haydock over today’s trip, when trying to give 10 lengths to Yesyoucan on the run to the last, with that horse running all the way to the line Black Thunder performed wonders to cut it back to a diminishing neck. His latest run at Cheltenham was also encouraging, The horse traveled powerfully in mid division before being crept in to the race, and Daryl Jacob had yet to fully ask a serious question before falling just before turning in, Imo he would have at least been in the thick of things at the finish, with the suggestion being that race was head and shoulders above this contest in term of quality.

Now up to Ripon, and having backed Dubai Dynamo Lto was almost going to stick with him today, as he does hold form fairly well once in the groove, but his current mark just tipped the scales in favour of deserting him. Invincible Hero is the horse I've opted for, and now steps back up to a mile after a very respectable seasonal reappearance over 7F at Newcastle last month. He is more than capable of making his presence felt off his current mark, and good ground suits him just fine, with his last 3 runs on the going in handicaps over a mile producing form figures of 1-1-1. The horse has been very consistent during his career to date, and is fairly well berthed for one that likes to race up in the van, and looks sure to get towed along on the speed at a decent gallop.

Now on to the big one at Sandown, and what I usually look for in this contest is a lightly raced horse with a low weight that has form on a decent surface, and willobviously stay. Quentin Collonges  did sort of stand out in all of those categories, but his current mark after being hiked up 10lbs for his recent Doncaster success rather put me off. Instead I’ve opted for There’s No Panic, who does at least tick a couple of the previously mentioned boxes, and on the grand scheme of things is still feasibly treated off 134. As alluded to this horse is different gravy on a sound surface, and has shaped well in un-favourable ground on his last couple of spins over 25F on course. Lto he was made 9-1 favourite for the Topham, and never really looked comfortable at the fences, and although he was only about 8 lengths off the leaders when Ruby was unfortunately unseated, you would need a vivid imagination to have had him involved in the finish should he have completed. The Betfred today will be much more to his liking, and the yards conditional Ryan Mahon is asked to do the steering, should we take the hint??? His race record on the horse reads 1-1-1 albeit in small field novice hurdles, but Imo there will be worse 20-1 shots you could find today.

Now up to Haydock for there evening card, where unfortunately I’ve missed the 14-1 available on my note book horse Cono Zur last night, and I’m certainly not interested at his current odds of 5-1 on offer now. I do however think Ruth Carr could be in for a half decent day with her runners scattered far and wide, and Imperial Djay could certainly provide her with a winner in Hadock’s 19.30 race. Spring / early summer has been the time to catch him in his previous 3 campaigns, and shaped well over a mile at Nottingham Lto to warrant an interest Nto, with that run suggesting a return to the winner’s enclosure could be close. He gets his preferred lightning quick ground tonight, and has ran a couple of reasonable races on course, including over this evenings distance on heavy ground off a 12lb higher mark last July. He is very tough and takes his racing well, and I’m hopeful he will be in the thick of things at the business end with his customary turn of foot.

Having thought Rye House could very well come in to his own this year as an older horse, and as a result could be very well handicapped, with the yard excelling with this type of beast. I however was not the only one that was brought to his attention, and unfortunately he has found his way on to the radar of Tom Segal, hence the diminishing price over night. Sir Michael is in cracking form presently, with 5 winners and a further 3 placed form his last 10 runners, at least showcasing the yards wellbeing. They have shown their hand somewhat with this horse via the booking of Richard Hughes, the mere fact they’ve put up a jockey of his stature up is a sure indication they want the best out of this animal today, and this race could well be a spring board to bigger and better stuff for this entire son of Dansili.


Again I am using the pricewise concession to my advantage, and having seen money for David O’Meara’s Elusivity and Doc Hay I thought they may well be a Tom Segal Pick also, with the latter being just that. It is however the former I’m interested in primarily, not only does he make his seasonal debut, but he also makes his first run for the yard, which makes him very interesting regardless of where he were to be placed. Brian Meehan always talked this horse up, and I get the feeling if he had of shown his home work on the race course he would have been mixing it up in G1 for the majority of last season. However that may well be said for a fair few in the field, and not all horses that are catching pigeons on the gallops can do it where it matters, but did at least show a glimpse of what he was all about in this race last season when chasing home Myson. The yard are sending out winners left, right and centre at present, and both his representatives could run well, but my marginal preference is for Elusivity who might now deliver what his previous handler thought him capable of now in the care of this yard.


Now on to Jacobs Cat in Thirsk’s 16.35, where plenty of horses bring some good recent form to the table, and a few of those looking to hold the potential to have improvement within. However having saw a very good 4yrold win this last season in Farhh, there is good reason to believe that Jacobs Cat can repeat that feat. Whilst Jacobs Cat’s rise in the handicap is not as dramatic as last years winner, he is undoubtedly going the right way, and although we here the term “a group horse in a handicap” over used somewhat, he does look to hold every bit of potential to be just that. Pearl Bloodstock seem to think he may turn out to be a smart older horse, and duly parted with 240,000 guineas at the end of last season to secure his services. He will obviously have to overcome his car park draw, but the first 4 home last year were drawn 10, 18, 12 & 14, with front runners and handy horses galore in the line up I’m presuming those that are drawn wide will have time and  space to slot in nicely enough in the 4F saunter to begin the turn in. Olly Stevens looks like he can get them ready to roll first time up, and is in scintillating form presently with his last 9 runners producing 4 winners and 3 other placed efforts, advertising just how well he has his string.

The lucky last at Thirsk is as competitive as it comes for the course, and taking in to consideration apprentice claims there is barely half a stone separating the 19 runners. An old adage is to follow a sprinter in form, and I’m a firm believer of that thinking, especially when a filly or mare starts to show some form. Lto at Doncaster Love Island was an unconsidered 33-1 shot, but won in the manner of a horse that was a very small fraction of those odds would suggest. She has not got many miles on the clock, and during the summer last year showed steady improvement and a very good attitude when picking up a couple of fast ground sprint handicaps here at Thirsk over 5 and at Ripon over 6. Lto over 5F at Doncaster had a fair few of today’s rivals in behind, and it has to be said Paul Quinn had all the angles covered traveling kindly from a fair way out, only having to nurse her out to collect. That run looked like it would bring her on plenty, and could well be set to put some serious poundage on her mark given the manner of that victory, along with her improving profile. She will once again have to overcome in all likelihood a poor draw, but she has done this a few times already during her career and still looks well in to my eye.

Result(s) day 116 & 117.

1.00 E.W. L15      1Winner 1 Pl  return 26.25p

1.00 E.W. L15                    return 0.00

Profit / Loss                     - 33.75p

Total                              949.65p

My bet starts off in Haydocks first to the card, which looks their most competitive on balance. Having been through the probables I simply cant get away from Paul Nicholls novice Whiskey Yankee, with this well put together son of Presenting(out of a Strong Gale mare) looking destined for a very bright future over fences, but may just be capable of mopping up s few decent prizes over timber should his current mark be fair. Imo in the grand scheme of things he could potentially be thrown in today, and has done nothing but improve with his racing to date. When winning his penultimate race in March he did so overcoming greenness and inexperience, with that being only his second hurdle race of his career he still looked a little wet behind the ears as to what it was all about, with the runner up that day he was conceding weight to, and well regarded by the yard looking unlucky Nto to bump into a well handicapped horse at Cheltenham off his mark of 130. That race did bring him on a bundle, and although he did show signs of greenness mid race when coming off the bridle he beat a small select field of decent novices under an excellent ride from today pilot Harry Derham, looking like he’d just joined in at the second last the ease in which he traveled, but once shaken up after the last there was no idling, he knew much more what was required when bolting away in the closing stages. The step up in trip will most definitely suit, as will a decent gallop which he looks assured to get, and think he’s well worth chancing in today’s line of receiving weight from all.

Forgotten Voice runs in Haydock’s other big field handicap, and anyone who has followed my threads over the years will no that taking a fairly short priced favourite in a 18 runner handicap is simply not my style. I have however relented on this occasion, thinking he may well prove to be a much, much better animal than his current mark of 144 in time, given he gets conditions to suit. He was of course very classy on the level, but never quite managed to fulfill his promise of being a group performer, and although he ran some very nice races in those type of contests he was never able to nail one. Will he be found out at a higher level in this sphere as time progresses remains to be seen, but certainly lost no caste when finishing 2nd to My Tent Or  Yours on his latest start at the festival, with that horse almost certainly having Champion hurdle aspirations next season, and is only a cramped 6-1 shot in the betting for that race. Today Forgotten Voice will most definitely get a true run race with Barizan looking certain to bowl along, with the flat 2 miles on decent ground looking ideal, and Barry Geraghty looks certain to get him plenty of cover which will be crucial in getting to finish his race off with his usually excellent turn of foot.

Now on to the Victoria Cup at Ascot, where no doubt plenty in the field have been laid out to lift the nice purse of just shy of 53K to the winner. As you would expect plenty are bringing some winning form to the table, and others shaping well with obviously this in mind. Although I’m not 100% certain,  I’d certainly  be inclined to say that King Of Eden would not have been plotted for this race, but never the less is a horse bringing some strong recent form to the equation, and can consider himself a very unlucky loser Lto despite being beaten 2 3/4lengths by Gandalak. That day he did miss the kick as the stalls opened, and was fairly awkward into his stride, forfeiting best part of 4-5 lengths in the process, but more importantly was stone cold last behind a well grouped bunch. There was only one place to be that evening at Newcastle, the golden highway that was the stands rail, and it was evident there where to rows of 4 horses in Indian file trying to bag a rails position, with King Of Eden last in both queues. Gandalak no doubt had the runoff the race that day, and whilst he had dictated proceedings at the head of affairs at the front of the golden highway, was sent about his business on the approach to the 2 pole, in stark contrast King Of Eden was sitting and suffering for best part of 3 furlongs weighting to get out. He did not see any real daylight to run at until well inside the final furlong, by which time Gandalak was home and hosed, King Of Eden merely displaying his wellbeing for the last half furlong. Gandalak’s performances subsequently make that run even better than first assumed, and although will need to step up again on that the blinkers seem to have revitalized this horse, and it would be folly to ignore the possibility of more to come.

The lucky last at Ascot looks another tricky one to finish off with, but I’m of the opinion that The Tichborne could still have plenty up his sleeve in the sprinting divisions, and looks set to climb the handicap ladder again after getting a foothold on it in this sphere. His latest run at Lingfield was very impressive albeit at a lowly level, continuing to show a much better attitude to the game that had somewhat soured in the summer of 2012. Imo he readily beat Nocturn, going past him with ease inside the distance, pulling out more when challenged, that run looking even better with the exploits of the runner up recently. The yard are among the winners lately, and although he has not shown form on turf recently, he does at least act at Ascot and has a reasonable draw should the rehabilitation work regarding his attitude continue.

Cracking thread with some excellent write ups therobster27,top work

There is some excellent big field handicaps for the form students to get their teeth in to this afternoon, and it’s no surprise I’ve also found myself looking at those type of races for the added value of 4th place (at time of writing anyway). And I’m relying on one form each of today’s flat cards to try and get my thread back on the winning track.

In today’s first at H.Q. I’ve been drawn to a filly that should not figure in proceedings on her latest form, but looking at the bigger picture and the way she was campaigned there are one or two reasons why she could be reasonably handicapped to figure under today’s conditions. When she won her maiden over the C/D last June you would have thought she would have gone on to be better than her current mark of 75, but looking back that was not the strongest of maidens to have ever  been contested at Newmarket, and could well have been flattered. She was however given a black type assignment Nto, and certainly out ran that mark when finishing a very credible 7th. She was again found wanting in a well contested G3, and again so in decent handicap company on her last couple of starts at the back end of the season in soft ground. She made her reappearance at Ascot over a mile at the beginning of the month, and traveled well when being crept in to that contest, looking to be as going as well as anything on the approach to the 2 pole. However she found very little once asked, but was not knocked about and looked like she would benefit for that run. The yard are in recent form and have  booked Mickael Barzalona to do the steering now coming back to 7F, that in itself making her a very interesting contender today.

Now over to Newbury where I do really like the chance of Khubala despite plenty of others looking to hold reasonable claims, with  Hugo Palmer colt eventually coming out on top with me after some consideration. He now reverts back to the more conventional sprint trip of 6F, and with that the blinkers are re-fitted, and in stall 15 could have much better stall to break from than he did in the Victoria Cup recently. He did however that day appear on the scene with some menace at the 2 pole in the small group he was tracking, but just never saw things out. Like last season he did run well on his debut before disappointing on his second start, with his 3rd start back last year being a winning one. The drop back to 6 will definitely benefit, with form in this country at the distance on turf reading   1-1-1-2-4, a few of those contests being in this class.

Now up north to Thirsk for their biggest field of the day, and unless I’ve miss calculated or have made an error with my workings (it has been known), I do think Mash Potato is handicapped to go close(if not win), and that’s on a very recent line through the red hot favourite War Lord, especially given the fact the forecast rain in the area has eased the ground more to his liking(out of Whipper). Obviously with this race being a basement level affair there are usually a couple of potential steamer type gambles to evolve from the handicap debutants. If there is to be a gamble of sorts I’ve not picked up on it, and in large beyond the principles at the head of the betting they look a well exposed poor bunch (famous last words).  Mash Potato still looked very inexperienced when winning over the distance at Newcastle Lto, but was very good value for that win in relation to his 3lb hike, and had today 2nd fav well accounted for off level weight, and is still  better of regardless of the good lads claim, and he being weighted to reverse Lto placing’s with the fav, confusing I know but there for all to see. I’m certain Mash Potato will come on a bundle for his seasonal debut in terms of experience and fitness, and looks set to get a lovely toe through in to the race from the favourite, with 8-1 a very fair price considering .

Now on to the last race flat race of the day, Doncasters 20.35 where I rely on a horse I liked Lto, but on that occasion circumstance well and truly conspired against his chance. Lto at Newcastle Oneladyowner could not have been drawn further away from the golden strip up the stand side, and ran for the entire race without cover tracking one other horse up the middle of the track. There were  positive’s to be had from that run, with the best one being the handicapper seeing fit to relieve the horse of a further couple of pounds, and is now that said 2lbs blow his last winning mark albeit some time ago now. The ground looks set to ride G/soft, but with the rain around in the area it could well be soft come race time, and with a better ride should have won his only start on a soft surface at Goodwood at the back end of 2011. I’m confident the place to be may be middle to stand side tonight, and is berthed accordingly, and tops my shortlist of probable winners.

G.L.

Cheers mange, could do with a little.

was going to try an work out returns if you didn't do e/w for curiosity,but didn't know the winners

enjoying the thread

g/l today

would win only affect the way you pick--ie price of horse?

if that's the case no point in working out win only results

but single level stakes prob worth working out

so it would be

£15/4=£3.75 singles x4
£30/4=£7.50 singles x4

but as all punters who enjoy multiples,were fixed on treble or 4 timer for the jackpot

^^^ Tinshu 15-2 LOL 15-1 would be nice.

Result day(s) 139 & 147.

1.00 E.W. Lucky 15              return  0.00p

1.00 E.W. Lucky 15   1place + N/R return 7.00p

Profit / Loss                         - 53.00p


Total                                   846.65p

The 14.05 at Haydock looks an intriguing heat, with a few lightly raced 4 yrolds stepping up to run over their longest trip to date, and it is one of those horses I’ve opted for to start the bet off.  Castilo Del Diablo looks to be held by Sun Central on their latest start at Salisbury, but having been under pressure a fair way out Castilo Del Diablo looked in real need of that outing, and gave the impression a thorough test would be right up his street when staying on a never nearer 5th.

Despite Chester Aristocrat being fairly short at around 5-1 he could potentially go off a lot shorter, with many of his nearest rivals in the betting having all of their best form with plenty of cut in the ground. When he beat Pelmanism at Hamilton recently this horse was backed all day as though defeat was out of the question, and in truth the money was never really in doubt. He won that day fairly cosily, and at least value for his rise in the handicap. The old adage is to back a sprinter in form, and he tops my shortlist of those that are.

Half an hour later Prompter is a fairly rare runner at this venue for Jonjo O’Neill, and an even rarer one for JP McManus. He has been given a terrible draw, but hopefully Jimmy Fortune can get him into a nice position as the filed breaks up, and with a duo of Mark Johnston runners involved the field could thin out fairly quickly. His come back run recently at York will have put him spot on for this, and wasn’t given a hard time of things once his race had been run.  His poor draw has probably influenced his price, but he’s on a fairly attractive mark and if he gets the run of the race he may be staying on stoutest for the run to the line.

The 15.30 at Newmarket raps up the bet, and I do think Suegioo will be involved in the finish of this race in some capacity. No Heretic was 1 ½ lengths to good for him Lto, but it’s fair to say No Heretic looked to have a far less troubled run than the selection. Once Suegioo did get some real daylight, he looked a little unbalanced running down into the dip that day at Newmarket, but once organized on the run out of it looked to run on very nicely, and with todays jockey probably covering every blade of grass on the course during his career, he won’t be lacking anything for race positioning.

Result(s) day 159 & 166.

1.00 E.W. Lucky 15               returns 0.00p

1.00 E.W. Lucky 15               returns 46.50p

Profit / Loss                           -13.50p

Total                                   833.15p

apologies, Rex Imperator (5places) not as stated Caravan Rolls On.