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for the new year(3) with a twist.....
for the new year(3) with a twist.....
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All the best
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G.L...tough race Mickie
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- you've been around all night
And that's a little long. You think you've got the right but I think you've got it wrong. Why can't we say goodnight? So you can take me home..... |
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Henry Daly probably forced to go for this race today Mange, was going to have to concede weight on Thursday at Cheltenham to both Prima Porta & today's rival Call Me A Star, as Mickie doesn't receive a penalty due to the conditions of today's race/weights.
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Def on the up............I keep looking at the bottom 1....no bet FM
Id backed your 1st 1  |
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mmm
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Don't tell me you didn't back it mange - ? 25/1 !!!
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Mmm indeed Mange
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Im actually working outside trying to do too much at once
I had a comb Ex Me Rob & the Fav anyone that follows me knows that I like 1 at a price that I think will be involved..................& that was the 1 I dont need anymore questions.................. |
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wot ya doing outside
tar |
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Digging a LARGE HOLE to lay in.............
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Result day 106.
1.00 E.W. L15 1winner return 10.80p Profit / Loss -19.20 Total 1055.78p The only saving grace from yesterday was the extraordinary run from Clyda Rover, must have cost the layers a few bob IR. Great shout on the winner in Mickies race Mange, would have been a nice F/cast which ever one had of followed it home for you, Unlucky. |
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Bet day 108. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15.
Loyaute 15.10 Ch. 12-1 Midnight Chase 15.45 Ch 11-1 Destroyer Deployed 16.20 Ch 20-1 El Dancer 18.00 Ch 8-1 Paddy Power BOG 2 x odds 1 winner, write up to follow... |
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Today’s racing at Cheltenham for me looks better than yesterdays card, and although I’ve got my eye on a potentially well handicapped animal of Dandy’s at Ripon(Swilly Ferry 15.20) I’m keeping the bet exclusively to Prestbury Park.
My bet kicks off in the 15.10 where I’ve sadly decided to oppose my note book horse Prima Porta, who looks well up to being in the shake up given her never nearer 6th in the mare’s final at Cheltenham. Instead I’ve decided to go for a bit of a dark horse in the form of Loyaute, who looks like she’s beginning to grasp the nettle at just the right time of her career so far. It’s fair to say she was fairly highly tried in her few novice events in the build up to the New Year, and ran solid enough races given her inexperience against some of her rivals. Her first worthwhile form came on her penultimate start at Exeter over 19F, when going down a battling length to Tolkiens Tango, running all the way to the line. She followed that up with a bloodless rout of a maiden on her last start, and has probably been asked to do more exerting work on the gallops at home. She probably did not beat much that day, but had a couple of 100 rated miles back in her wake, and Imo that performance looked to be well above her allocated mark of 115 today. There is surely more to come, and stepping up in trip may eek out further improvement, and could make her presence felt off just 10st-02lbs. Now on to Midnight Chase, and at last he gets some ground with the prefix good in the going, with more emphasis on the good reading between the lines. He absolutely loves this place, and during his career at the venue on better ground has form figures of 2-1-1-1-1-1-5-1-7. the 5 & 7 in that sequence where in Gold Cups, and his only 2 lifetime spins in April have both been winning ones. He now drops further in class, and his last handicap win ironically came over C/D off 155, and now through some poor displays on bottomless ground gets in here on 147. Connections put the blinkers on for the first time, and if he rekindles anywhere near his best form they simply won’t get anywhere near him on these terms, form is temporary class is not. The 16.20 is arguably the most competitive on the card, and many look to hold half decent claims, but at his quoted price of 20-1 I think Destroyer Deployed looks half decent E.W. value. His only couple of runs at the track have produced a runner up spot in the 2011 Champion Bumper, and most recently a fine third behind a couple of excellent novices, as well as finishing in front of a very good prospect as well. Those horses are now all 150+ animals. His last run at Newbury was probably around his mark, and has been given a little respite from the assessor for it. He will need to raise his game to get involved today, but I do think Cheltenham will suit this horse much better than his last couple of assignments, and I envisage the climb for home up the hill lending support to his cause in the conclusion to the race. In the last leg of the bet I’ve decided to play El Dancer, who’s price is way bigger than I expected at 8-1, largely down to the participation of the handicap good thing Velator. His last couple of spins have been winning ones over fences, and on the grand scheme of things could be still fairly feasibly treated considering what he achieved over timber. The yard seems to have a good record this side of the new year, especially from March on wards, and have recently endorsed that fact with a couple of recent winners. El Dancer jumped very economically during his latest race, and although that was over 3 miles it was ran at no real pace, with the suggestion coming back to 21F at Cheltenham will suit, especially if the gallop is strong. |
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Definitely Prima Porta for me Rob.
B365 went far too big last night at 10/1  GL with your bet . |
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Hi Rob
Backed Swilly Ferry last night, nice to see it nibbled at so fingers crossed, had it with Tempest Girl in the 3.10 at 25/1 which has been lets say munched at  Good luck |
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Break even today I think Robster
good efforts |
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Made a little virgin, stake back always gives you another shot at it, and plenty decent races under both codes tomorrow to try just that.
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PP never went a yard - very disappointing.
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Bet day 109. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15.
Ourmanmassini 14.50 Fontwell 6-1 Kleitomachos 16.15 Newbury 4-1 Mirza 17.15 Newbury 5-1 Jwala 18.30 Bath 4-1 P.P. BOG 2 x odds 1 winner. Having placed my bet for today yesterday evening I was unable to put them up due to other commitments, I am personally on a marginally bigger prices than I’m putting up today. Price is everything when your having a punt, but in the grand scheme of things I’d still be prepared at their current quoted odds to have a dabble with a B.O.G. concession in place, and will be going off their current prices for the purpose of P&L.. My bet Kicks off with Ourmanmassini in the 14.50 at Fontwell, who is taking on a horse in very good heart presently in Occasionally Yours, with his mark off 107 looking fairly workable. However at over double his price Ourmanmassini may be half decent value now stepping back up in trip, and for one quite stoutly bred it may just be the making of him. The assessor has given him a rating of 120, which may seem harsh on what he’s achieved on paper, but you can pick little bits of form from all of his last 3 novice / maiden events to have him in that vicinity. He will have to have brushed up on his hurdling technique to have any sort of say, which has undoubtedly cost him a podium finish in his last two contests. The penultimate one he was staying on nicely when leaving his legs through the last, probably costing him more lengths than he was beaten, and on his last start at Kempton behind the enigmatic Lordofthehouse was really putting it in at the business end when only a couple of lengths down before his departure at the last, possibly booked for third but who really knows. Connections have him in this grade with nothing to spare, and Suzy Smith is at least among the winners again, hopefully Ourmanmassini can keep that trend going. Now we head over to Newbury where the in form Stuart Kittow looks to be leaving nothing to chance on Kleitomachos’s reappearance, with the eye catching booking of the champion. He is another who connections have pitched into a grade where he is at the end of his rope (0-80). He has been brought on steadily in both of his campaigns to date, and with his racing has improved. He did win on his debut in April last season, and has at least shown an appreciation for Newbury when winning over today’s trip last July off the back of a small break. Plenty have chances, but I expect him to give his supporters a decent run for their money. An hour later another trainer appears to be leaving nothing to chance with his horse on seasonal debut, and it’s Rae Guest that as also procured the services of Richard Hughes for his gelding Mirza. Mirza is another that runs well fresh, as showing in this race last season on debut. Richard Hughes at least knows this horse well, having already won on him 3 times from his 5 rides, and ironically returns to the mark on which Mr Hughes rode him to victory. He won’t mind the ground, and is capable of making his presence felt for yet another in form yard. My last selection runs in this evening’s card at Bath, and Jwala looked a highly progressive filly last season, giving the impression she would continue that upward curve on her next. It was Bath where she kicked off her winning ways last season, and conditions this evening will be fairly similar to those of last year. Her form over 5F reads 1-1-1-2, the 2nd being in a listed contest behind Sole Power, a reproduction of that run on debut would most certainly be enough to take this event, with on paper more than a few looking to be wading outside their comfort zone |
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Result day 108.
1.00 E.W. L15 2 x places return 39.50p Profit / Loss +9.50p Total 1065.28p Facts I agree PP ran no sort of race for her supporters, very disappointing as you say. |
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Gl Rob.
I think it's only a matter of time before you hit a mega payout on one of these. |
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Have had a few decent returns in the past from such bets Polab, be nice to think I could add to the haul with getting a few together on such a bet, but hit the post in that department on Saturday.
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Bet day 110. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15
Captain Bertie 12-1 (5places) 14.20 Newbury Dubai Dynamo 12-1 15.25 Thirsk Bradley 15.50 Ayr 16-1 (5placs) Artic Court 16.25 Ayr 13-2 Once again there appears to be quite a lot of racing crammed in to Saturday’s schedule around and about the British isle’s, with Sunday once again looking very baron as far as flat racing goes. Having looked at today’s probables I’m personally having a couple on my bet from both disciplines, and all look to hold half decent claims in their respective contests. The bet kicks off at Newbury with their most competitive race to the card, and the one that I’m keen to be onside is the Charlie Hills trained Captain Bertie, ridden by Ryan Moore. I can remember a couple of seasons ago as a 2yrold this horse being touted as a very nice prospect by his then trainer Barry Hills, and after starting his 3yrold campaign off with an excellent 2nd in the Esher Cup at Sandown merely went through the motions for the remainder of that season. He did look on the way back when an unlucky fast finishing 4th in last season’s spring mile at Donny, then made no mistake in this corresponding race last year when beating the highly regarded Fury. Lto in the Lincoln never really traveled a yard, and looked in trouble from a very long way out, a lot of head scratching by connections for sure. I’m fairly confident he’s a much better horse as seen on that day, and when the yard book Ryan Moore they are seldom far away, and it can be assumed a bigger run than Lto is on the cards. Dubai Dynamo was another who disappointed in the Lincoln, but his run was at least far more excusable than Captain Bertie's, looking very much like better ground is his ticket. He has now slipped down to his last winning mark, achieved last season at Ayr on good ground. This sort of mark is most definitely gives him a chance, and does seem to handle Thirsk fairly well. He has a record of 3-1-3 over 7F at this venue in the last three April’s, and looks well boxed up to jump and hold a prominent sit for a jockey that knows him extremely well. Now up to Scotland for the last couple of legs of the bet, and in the big un I just can’t get my thoughts away from the chances of Bradley. I’m sure Fergal O’Brien has layed the horse out for this race on route to the Betfred at Sandown, looking very much to be at his best after a break in service especially at this time of year, and although he handles soft the more it dries out the better it will suit. After a couple of lesser runs during the winter drops to an attractive mark of 133, and looked very able around that rating previously, with a form line of 2-4-2 in some well contested handicaps. The yard slip on a 7lb claimer for further assistance, theoretically dropping him to a rating of 126, more importantly as far as stats go giving him only 10st-04lbs to carry. He has been claimer ridden for 3 of his 4 career wins, and the lad up has a very good record when riding in chases with a 33% strike rate from his 18 rides. Another one that looks like it’s been laid out for a big run at this venue is Jim Goldies Artic Court, ridden by Timmy Murphy for his father-in-law Raymond Anderson Green. He is now a huge 15lb lower than when a well beaten 7th in this corresponding race last year, but his over all record around Ayr is very sound. He has been teed up for this race with an outing in the Scottish County hurdle over an inadequate 2 miles, with his previous couple of spins prior to that run also looking on the sharp side in some nicely contested races. As already stated the handicapper looks to have been fairly lenient considering, and should have much more to offer today receiving weight from all bar 1. |
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All the best
Thank you . |
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gl today robster , would hate to guess how many hrs you put in ,,
Captain Bertie ,remember this horse well winning at Newbury a while back now ,, not sure this will like this drying ground thou , hopefully still be some juice left in there for it ,gl today |
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Thank you
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w/d dubaui
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Bet day 111. 50p E.W. Lucky 15.
Victoria Rose 14.30 Stratford 12-1 Stagecoach Jasper 14.50 Newcastle 6-1 Bonnie Burnett 16.20 Newcastle 15-2 Railway Dillon 16.50 Newcastle 7-2 Bet 365 BOG 2 x odds 1 winner.... write up an P&L update to follow.... |
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Yet again it’s again of “what no flat racing”, with only 2 modest jumps meeting’s set to entice people to “come racing” in Britain, the other at Newcastle being a rescheduled card due to abandonment, with ordinary people probably having basically Saturday or Sunday to get to the course it’s an utter joke.
Well with the soap box put back in the cupboard it’s a case of don’t bother, or work with what remains, and with being a fan of both codes its well and truly the latter for me. The bet kicks off at Stratford, and Victoria Rose makes a little appeal to my eye in what really is plating class stuff. Richard Woollacot has only been responsible for her last 2 pieces of form, which has been very poor to say the least, and on the bare facts looks hard to see why a case can be made today. I have thought along the lines she may have made a rod for her own back when winning a novice event at Uttoxeter at the beginning of 2012, the handicapper airing on the side of caution and giving her a mark of 123. In her 4 subsequent starts since that win she has ran nowhere that sort mark, mind you the last couple of starts for this stable tactics may have conspired against her. The mare simply is one paced, and when winning her novice chase appeared much happier bowling along near the head of affairs and without quickening simply outstayed the opposition. She has got stamina in abundance on her pedigree, and now takes in her longest race to date at 28F. She will also encounter some decent ground which may assist, and connection reach for some headgear for the first time just for good measure, and with some serious help from the assessor has been dropped a fair way in class. Longer trip, different ground, new head gear, drop in class with a new pilot to boot, and hopefully a change of tactics (prominently ridden)….. Will all these changes help her, we’ll see. Now we head north for the remainder of the bet, and firstly Stagecoach Jasper who was made the market leader in a hotter race than this off his current mark Lto at Hexham. He did run his best race of a light campaign in the spring last season, with this slightly better ground looking to suit him well. It was miles to early to say whether he would have had a say in his last race, stumbling and falling a long way from home, but was at least was still running on the bit when he did come to grief. Today’s trip on this galloping track should suit, and makes much more appeal than most in the field, with the yard having a liking for Newcastle as a venue. Bonnie Burnett runs a little later on the card, and looks very much like she is coming to hand. Her penultimate start was her first for a good few months, and ran a super race despite not matching Jonny Delta and Rymers ha’s finishing speed, looking very much like she’d benefit from the run. She was turned out relatively quickly on her final start at Soutwell last month, and was crept in to the contest under a very confident ride from Dougie Costello, coming very much to take a hand full of running at the second last. She appeared to jump the flight well, but skidded a little on landing loosing her footing which actually lead to the fall. She’s still very much un-exposed, and should at least be able to compete off her current mark, with Brian Rothwell putting up the experienced Brian Toomey to relieve that mark a further 3lbs. Now on to the final leg where Railway Dillon looks set to get the decent pace he needs, and already looks to hold half the field on his latest start on course. He did start the season a 137 animal, and has shed over 14lbs from that mark since then, and is another that won’t mind this slightly better ground. He did come good in April last season winning a minor race, and the yard are usually reasonable value with their runners at Newcastle, and a repeat of Lto would see him go close in taking this today. |
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result day(s) 109 & 110.
1.00 E.w. L 15 all unplaced return 0.00p 1.00 E.w. L 15 1 winner 29.00p Profit / Loss -31.00p Total 1034.28p |
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Bet for day 112. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15.
Misplaced Fortune 15.20 Pontefract 20-1 Frontier Fighter 16.40 Pontefract 6-1 Harrison George 18.30 Windsor 16-1 Aldwick Bay 19.30 Windsor 3-1 B365 BOG 2xodds 1 winner, write up to follow..... |
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Tomorrow sees the return of some flat turf action, with Pontefract and Windsor putting on a couple of competitive cards, and it is two from each venue that have taken my eye regarding some value.
Misplaced Fortune has been an excellent mare for her connections, and owes them absolutely nothing, having won 7 and been placed on a further 17 occasions during her 55 race career to date. She is holding nothing in hand of her current mark, and is probably 5 - 7lbs above a winning mark if I’m honest, but the same could be said for several of her opponents in tomorrows contest. She has ran in 9 races at Pontefract, 7 of those being handicaps, all over tomorrows 6F producing form figures of 4-2-2-2-7-1-1, the last win in that sequence being her latest off a mark of 90 last September. She has never won first time out, but seldom disgraces herself on her seasonal reappearance, and has been there or there a bouts in some well contested handicaps over the years on debut, and once again looks to hold half decent frame prospects. Frontier Fighter goes to post for the last on the card, and I’m fairly certain we have not seen the last of his improvement this year. He has already shot up the handicap in a short space of time after some very consistent runs, picking up a couple of handicaps on his way. His last run can be excused to a degree, it was his 3rd in just 10 days, and when beaten by Southwell specialist Dubai Hills on his latest outing may have been running on an unfavorable part of the course compared to his rivals. His trainer once again is consistently getting winners, and Frontier Fighter looks a nice horse to have on board for the present turf campaign. Tomorrow he makes his turf debut off a mark of 84, which is very interesting, looking certain to have the race run to suit and may just about have the answers late on. Now down to Windsor for the remainder of the bet, and Harrison George is the one I fancy in their 18.30 contest. This is a proverbial mile easier than the last class 2 at Doncaster he recently contested, which was littered with quite a few genuine listed performers, but still ran a very promising race when finishing 8th all things considered. The lass riding that day was Natasha Eaton, and I’m sure if she could ride the race again she may rode it a little differently, and would have finished a few places and lengths closer (that’s my opinion anyway). Tomorrow she is replaced by Kieran Fallon, and when he is booked for this yard a gamble is usually forthcoming, and connections must be liking what their seeing at his double figured price if they are about to hatch one. He has since been dropped a couple of further pounds by the assessor and is almost at a career low mark, with Kieran Fallon having a lovely box to jump from for one that has some nice early pace to lie handy, and is sure to be staying on well at the end that matters under the Fallon drive. Now on to the last leg of the bet, and if I have got 3 winners by now ( I know if is only 2 letters but is a rather big word), I would be fairly confident of getting the win bonus with Aldwick Bay. He is very consistent at Windsor in a handicap, running up a sequence of 1-3-1-2-1, and the most he’s been beaten in the couple of contests he didn’t win was half a length. He seems to go well on a variety of grounds, but does look suited to a softer surface, with tomorrow at least looking destined for the softer side of good. His last run at Kempton will have put him spot on for tomorrow, but Hughesy will have to be at his tactical best to assist in breaking Aldwick Bays hoodoo over 12F, but both he and trainer have no peers around Windsor and should have their say in this. |
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^^^^^Guesser^^^^^
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Result day 111.
50p E.W. L15 2 placed returns 6.92p Profit / Loss -8.08p Total 1026.20p TNM, sometimes the guesses are good |
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Bet day 115. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15
Quintain 16.05 Beverley 28-1 Oneladyowner 18.20 Newcastle 14-1 Petrol 19.20 Newcastle 5-2 Arc Light 19.50 Newcaslte 5-1. Stan James BOG 2 x odds 1 winner..... Today’s flat turf racing at both Beverley and Newcastle appears bog standard stuff, but a note book horse runs at the former meeting along with a couple more at the latter, and I’ve thrown in another that should run a race to make up the bet. Firstly at Beverley where Quintain takes up his engagement in the 16.05, and could go well at a big price. It’s hard to know what he’s actually bred for, being out of a mare that ran at a very low level in points(by Supreme Leader), and Olden Times who was good up to 10F on the level. Regardless which code he was actually bred to be good in, the one thing he will do with a pedigree like his is improve with age / time, and will no doubt come into his own on better ground over a distance. Tim Easterby has now stepped him up to a distance at least somewhere near in keeping with his breeding, and will get some decent ground to run on in this sphere. He did not set foot on a race course until this time last year as a 4yrold, advertising the fact that Olden Times progeny do take time to flourish, and since then on the level has not really been anywhere near the test he will get today. Lto he ran in maiden over Redcar’s 9F, and after being prominent throughout looked to run green in the closing stages, plodding on at the one pace, and was not given a hard time by Rachel Richardson during that contest. Today he will be much more at home getting taken along at a decent pace, and just looking at the line up you know there will not be any hiding places, and this horse’s stamina could be serving him well on the agonizing up hill run for home, wit the lad up looking ok as 7lb claimers go. Now onto Newcastle’s 18.20 where note book horse No 2 run’s, that horse being Oneladyowner. He warmed up for this race recently with a spin over Lingfields 6F, and looked to be more forward than his reappearance last year, maybe that had something to do with the gelding operation he has subsequently had. He has come on plenty for his initial run in his last couple of campaigns, winning on his 2nd start in April 2011, and although he was called runner up in a photo on his 2nd start last season I’m still not convinced regarding that outcome( personally thought he’d won it). Tonight his draw could have been kinder, but the way he is likely to be ridden it may not be that much of an inconvenience, and they will probably form one group up the centre. The Brown yard look to be in very good heart presently, and Oneladyowner is now contesting a turf race back on his last winning mark, on a track that may just suit his style. Now on to the final note book horse Petrol, who runs in tonight’s 19.20, and looks to have a massive chance of getting back to winning ways. Lto at Newcastle looked to have been asked too big of a question by Danny Tudhope, and although it’s no consolation to people who backed him he at least showed he was in form and 12F was well within his compass. He came from a long way back that day, and was at least beginning to run the mare down in front, who herself could still be relatively well handicapped, having been backed accordingly on course she stayed on well as you would expect given her profile. I’d be disappointed off the same mark if Mr Tudhope could not make amends for his misjudgment Lto, and the stable remain very much in form. I’ve thrown Arc Light in as my last leg, and given there overall profiles I’ve got him down to be again finishing somewhere near the probable favourite Titus Bolt, but at the time of me starting this write up was much bigger than that rival for some strange reason in the betting. The race does lack strength, but Arc Light is very lightly raced for a 4yrold, and since his initial seasonal debut in March off the back of a 915 day absence has shown a decent level of form in his subsequent 2 outings. As hard as I’ve looked I simply can’t get 4 to finish in front of him, so providing all 16 get to post he looks a solid frame contender and should at least help my bet out in that department. |
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Arc light now a non runner rob.
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cheers billy.
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