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for the new year(3) with a twist.....
for the new year(3) with a twist.....
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No I haven't xmoneyx, I rarely back win only.
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thx
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When your betting in multiple formats such as the lucky 15 bet I’m currently using you will inevitably have dilemmas to make regarding price taking, and also take into consideration concessions such as BOG, what x odds on 1 winner, and if your lucks really in the all important win bonuses that accompany such bets. Because there are anomalies in many firms prices regarding my selections I’m happy to have my investment with Betfred, who at least gives me 3x odds for one winner, along with BOG and a decent win bonus if I’m lucky to have all 4 win.
Quentin Collonges starts my bet off in Doncaster’s longest event of the day at14.55, and he’s been very much on my radar all season. Tomorrow he runs a couple of pounds wrong in the handicap, but that I believe is a miniscule hindrance to his cause, with the positives heavily outweighing that small negative regarding his chances in tomorrows contest. He now returns to a trip he looks more at home over, and tomorrows better ground is certain to favour him more than most. I’m nearly certain the yard have reported this fellow to have previously had breathing problems, so hopefully the first time cheek pieces can assist in some way. The Daly yard appear to be at a reasonable level of form presently, and it is at this time of the year where Quentin Collonges is capable of showing a little form himself, and everything looks set for a decent show from him tomorrow. Over in Newbury’s 15.15 Princely Player is next on the play list, and he is another that is sure to benefit from the better ground he now gets to race on, and is another that seemed to take his form to another level from around this time onwards last spring. He has looked a shadow of his self during his last couple of contests, but has now had is sights well and truly lowered by connection’s class wise, and with that drop in class comes back markedly in trip. His stable is again back in form, and if they have managed to smooth out this lad in the jumping department he could go very close on his ever reducing mark. Back over to Doncaster for the 15.30 where Beyeh on the book looks far from stand out from a handicapping perspective, but certain elements regarding tomorrows race have captured my attentions, with my gut on this occasion over ruling my head. After winning around this time last year, Nto this mare far from disgraced herself before being out classed in last seasons big juvenile race at Aintree, then on her last start of the season ran another credible race in a decent race at Sandown considering she was an unconsidered rag in both races. Rolling onto the present, and although her last couple of races have been runner up positions, they were very intriguing little contests, with the winner of both of those races looking to be well ahead of their marks. Connections have also stepped her up markedly in trip, which may also add weight to her case, but more significantly Charlie Wallis now takes over for the first time since her last win in this sphere, relieving her creeping mark of a nice 5lbs, and now looks nicely enough weighted to figure. Now onto the last leg where my Nap of the day Mr Gardner runs. I’m certain connections would have been thrilled by this lads return to action under rules at the start of January, and although he can run well fresh his 4th place Lto was very good, and they look to have given him sufficient time to recover from that race considering his lengthy lay off. I really am scratching my head as to why Big Fella Thanks is a full 4 points ahead of him in the betting, and Michael Flips almost half his price in relation to that last run. With Michael Flips being beaten out of sight before being pulled up, with Big Fella thanks having a fitness edge Lto winning on his favoured ground, and is now conceding 11lb more to the selection who will be much better suited by the ground. Mr Gardner also seems at home around Newbury, and accounted for Fistral Beach in no uncertain terms when winning his maiden their back in 2009, which may seem a long time ago, but considering it was only 5 starts ago for this lad he is extremely lightly raced for one of his age. Massive chance Imo |
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LoL, 1st time TT for Quentin Collonges, not cheek pieces
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GL Rob
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I bought my 90yo emphysemic grandad some cheekpieces last year and this year he ran the marathon! Good luck rob.
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Result day 55.
50p E.W. Lucky 15 1winner return 5.40p Profit / Loss - 9.60p Total 663.22p Mange I was scratching my head to say the least regarding the performance of Badgers Cove, not one to give up on though providing he brushes up his jumping. Swiftynifty, the comment re: your grandad did make me chuckle once the penny had dropped  |
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Good write-up therobster, I also think Princely Player could run well at a decent price, I'm undecided between it and Sporting Boy. Chisholm's do triple the odds one winner and BOG on certain races, their bonus for four winners is 10%. Good luck today.
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Great start "rob", gl with the others
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WD Rob
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Bet day 62. 50p E.W. Lucky 15. with Stan James
Was not going to bother with an interest today, but the way a couple have drifted to nice prices has precipitated my involvement, and have had a small wager prior to going out for the day… Indian Voyage 14.20 Sedgefield 25-1_ Looked to need the run Lto, and duly got very tired after trying to match a couple of nice prospects on his return a few weeks ago, better ground and undulating track could see him in a better light.. Lively place prospects Iona Days 16.00 Huntingdon 10-1.. Slowly creeping back down the handicap, with the better ground certain to suit. Much more at home in this class of company, and Wayne Hutchinson maintains the partnership. Big Chance Rollwiththepunches 16.30 Huntingdon 33-1. Plenty of shrewd judges fancied him Lto at big prices, and never saw things out at Doncaster in a big field handicap, the drop in trip and return to the scene of his last win could spark a revival… half decent e.w. poke at a massive price. Soixante Six 17.00 Huntingdon 12-1.. Crying out for a test of stamina (Imo), and in field where the Fav & 2nd Fav look to be overbet, he could be half decent place value at a double figured price, with his handler having a very good record over the years at this venue. |
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Good Luck therobster27
2.20 Sedgefield I've had a minimum place bet on Desgrey - Wilson Renwickrecent results at Sedgefield are solid not so strong for Niven but a little interest in the race for me ...... |
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Desgrey 4th
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Bet for day 71. 1.00p E.W. Lucky 15.
Tour De Champs 14.40 25-1 Country Wide Flame 15.20 14-1 Prima Porta 16.40 16.40 50-1 Howards Legacy 17.15 20-1 Paddy Power, BOG 2x odds 1 winner & all 1/4 odds the place. Will leave analysis later, as well as update P&L. |
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Week off Rob ?
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g/l
 hav u got chelt sorted yet? |
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Yes mange, the usual week off
xmoneyx, It's a meeting that as seldom rewarded me in the past, but regardless of any monetary gain I always love watching these(now)4 days. GL with yours |
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chelt ----same portfolio
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Result(s) day 61&62
61. 1.00 E.W. L15 1 winner return 31.25p 62. 50p E.W. L15 return 00.00p Profit / Loss - 13.75 Total 649.47p |
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Tomorrow sees the return of the best 4 days racing in the calendar bar none, and if you can’t get exited about this week you’re either my wife, or dead!
My first intended runner goes in the JLT handicap chase at 14.40, and I’m hoping Tour De Champs can get me off on a decent footing by at least hitting the frame. There may be a few trainers that were hoping for better than the described soft ground on offer tomorrow, but I’m certain it won’t inconvenience this fellow, whose last 3 success’s have came on such going. This horse on the whole is a very economical jumper, and looks to get over his fences very efficiently, however Lto at Ascot when pitched in against a couple of well regarded novices almost demolished the fence half a mile from home. Sam Twiston-Davies was in the process of cranking up the pace, but after that blunder he pretty much accepted the fact he was never going to get back in it, finishing on paper where he was entitled to. He did look more at home going left handed on a more demanding track at Ffos Las on his penultimate start, winning a small novice affair how he liked. He was also in the process of staying on nicely at Warwick in the soft over tomorrows distance a few starts back, and I’m certain if he had of stayed on his feet would have made it very interesting for Rocky Creek. Tomorrows race is sure to be ran at a decent pace, which will definitely suit Tour De Champs, and off his current mark sits just on the right side of 11st, with only 1 horse from 13 attempts in this contest winning with more than that on its back. In the Champion Hurdle at 15.20 for me at their respective prices it’s worth taking on the first 3 in the betting, not because that I think either of them can’t win, just simply from a value perspective. At his double figured price of 14 / 16-1 Country wide Flame looks almost certainly the forgotten horse of the race. I’m prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt regarding his last couple of outings, with both those races being on very flat tracks, with the latest of those runs having to make his own running. He would have to return to his absolute best to get any where near Hurricane Fly & Zarkander, but if he returned to the type of form as showing when winning the fighting fifth he could get involved. Ground, trip and track look much more suitable, and a decent pace would also be beneficial. John Quinn’s had 4 winners from his 5 runners in March, and if Country Wide Flames wellbeing is a reflection of the yards he could just surprise at working mans odds. Now onto the mares hurdle at 16.40, where Quevega looks to have an outstanding chance of making it 5 / 5 in the race. She of course is an absolute waste of time as far as my personal betting goes at her cramped odd of 4-7, but no doubt she will be more than a few peoples idea as the banker of the meeting, and will be lumping on accordingly. At her massive price of 50-1 I thought Evan Williams mare to be one of plenty to be in the interesting bracket, and she also looks to be very much on an upward curve. While she has ground to make up with a few in front of her in the betting off last seasons form, she may well have came on sufficiently to be able to get closer if not account for some of those rivals given her rapid improvement, endorsing that fact in a handicap Lto. In that race she readily accounted for the also improving Mickie, who had form previously with The New One, (albeit a fairly remote 2nd) and was easily value for the 8lbs in weight she received that day from him. She would of course have to improve to figure in tomorrow’s line up, but that is a reasonable possibility given her profile, and looks far too big Imo at 50-1 not to be involved. If I’m sweating by the time the 17.15 comes up I’m certain Howard’s Legacy is capable of putting in a decent show, with Liam Treadwell maintaining the partnership. If it was not for the penalty for winning that novice event Lto he would certainly not be lining up tomorrow. Is it an elaborate coup by the yard, I doubt it very much but maybe they sensed they could potentially have a well handicapped horse after the exploits of Opening Batsman Nto, with that 2nd on his penultimate start at Wincanton looking better than first assumed at the time. Looking on his CV I’m certain Cheltenham will suit him very well, especially at a decent pace over the trip, and presently looks far from the finished article, and 20-1 looks big on the face of things. |
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Bet day 73. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15
Top Of The Range 14.05 Ch 14-1 (5places) Alberta’s Run 14.40 Ch 14-1 Divers 16.00 Ch 20-1 Galaxy Rock 16.40 Ch 14-1 (5places) B365 2 x odds 1 winner, BOG…. Write up to follow…… |
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Today’s 14.05 looks another solid renewal of the pertemps final, and it must be some sort of a record given only 4 of the respective 24 runners are going to compete with less than 11st on their backs. In this race I’m generally scratching those set to carry over and above that amount of weight, and usually have my eye’s set at the foot of the handicap to unearth my selection. This year is no exception, and although Top Of The Range is set to carry 11st dead, he sits nicely towards the foot of the handicap with a very lightly raced profile. He had to make sure of a starting position in this race with a win last Friday at Sandown, which he did in a fairly authorative manner. Barry Gehaghty rode that race as though he was on the best horse (in hindsight he was), and a one that would stay the 22F he was stepping up to for the first time. Today’s ground on the softer side of good should suit him well, along with going up further in trip. Connections also thought enough of him to have a crack at the Challow as a 4yrold on only his 3rd start last season, and now as a 6yrold could start to reveal himself to be a good horse, fulfilling that very early potential.
In the 14.40 Alberta’s Run has almost made the Ryanair chase his own over the last few seasons, and is now bidding on seasonal debut to regain his crown in this contest. Is he past it at 12 ?, will he still run to a rating of 168?, and will the so far luckless combination of McCoy & O’Neill be stealing a portion of the limelight today?. If you’ve came up with the answers No, yes and yes like myself, Alberta’s Run must have a serious chance of running a massive race. Looking at his overall record of 5 wins and a 2nd from 8 starts coming after a 90+ day break, coming straight here a fresh horse may prove a positive, and looks very versatile as far as the ground goes, so could he be the one to doll out a lesson to the young pretenders? We’ll see. Divers runs again in this race after contesting it last season and this time around is running off a 7lb lower mark, and is much more lightly weighted as a result. This is another race in the Cheltenham calendar were I usually scratch those with 11st+. He’s almost had an identical preparation as last season, and despite being beaten out of sight in the Musselburgh handicap last season he ran a very gallant 4th in the plate. This time round he finished a very reasonable 3rd in his hurdle prep, and that should have put him spot on for a tilt at this. He is another with very good course form, particularly at this time of the season, and I’m sure James Reveley will be creeping him around nice and quietly, waiting in the wings as the race falls apart up front. The nearest I’ve been to sweating so far this week is going out to walk the dog, but if by chance I’m waiting for Galaxy rock to top off a memorable day I’m certain he will give me and his supporters a decent run for their cash. He is another that seems to appreciate the better ground, and has a record at Cheltenham in G/s or better of 5-4-1-1-2. He also appears to be at his most productive during the Month of March, with some very nice form of 1-1-2-2-1-4-3 during his 7 runs within this month, never failing to make the place frame in each contest. JonJo has used JT McNamara to good effect over the years and the said jockey has a 22% strike rate from his 28 rides for the stable, showing a nice profit of 15.96 to level stakes. JT’s record at Cheltenham (albeit mainly Xcountry) is also a decent one, with a nigh on 25% win strike rate, with nearly as many getting placed, and is showing a healthy 49.63 profit to level stakes during his career. Trip, track ground and pilot all massive positives for Galaxy Rock, and he’s my idea of shu in for a place. |
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Ive bet 2 ov em Rob & I might be backing a 3rd
.........G.L. M8 |
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Bet for day 89. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15
Farlow 13.20 Doncaster 16-1 Educate 13.55 Doncaster 10-1 Our Jonathan 14.30 Doncaster 10-1 Dubai Dynamo 15.05 Doncaster 40-1 all BOG 2 x odds 1 winner. Update of P & L + write up later.... |
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where are the odds robster, non on oddschecker? as I was going to do Our Jonathan
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found it - PP
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think those odds may be phone bets only - non on their site
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I'm on via internet Duvachelle.
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PS, Got them on the betting slip via the atr website if this helps.
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ok I'll try that thanks
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Result day(s) 71 & 73.
1.00 E.W. L15 1 Pl return 5.00p 1.00 E.W. L15 0 pl 0.00p Profit / Loss -55.00p Total 594.47p |
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There is some fantastic racing scheduled up and down Britain tomorrow, in particular the re-scheduled card of the Doncaster Lincoln meeting. It is there where I have headed for the purposes of my wager, and have decided to throw my hat in the ring early, my thoughts being I had Farlow closer to favoritism than his odds of 16-1, those sentiments can be echoed for Educate who I thought would have been pressing for the market leader spot at around 6-1, no where near the 10-1 on offer with Paddy Power.
Any how, I could be way off the mark with my assumption so it’s always nice to have the BOG concession in place should my theory be proved inaccurate. In the first Farlow Imo has still the potential to go through the ranks in this sphere, and I simply can’t have him anywhere near the price Paddy Power have him, with all 3 run’s to date at Doncaster looking solid enough to a degree, but his last run of the season as a relative fledgling in sprinting he ran a massive race, giving me the impression he should be kept on side. There are quite a few in that race who re-appose tomorrow, but without a doubt Farlow looks to have more on offer than any of those rivals. Although both Ancient Cross and Thunder Ball finished in front of him that day, Farlow came out of that race loosing no caste in defeat, especially given he looked to be drawn very much on the wrong part of the track. He has since moved stables, but I personally think he could not be in better hands in Richard Fahey’s care, and the stable are in very good order ahead of the current turf campaign, and Farlow could be much better drawn for today’s contest. Now onto the Lincoln consolation race, The Spring Mile. Educate was another who finished his season off on a high, and looked another one to keep very much on side from a handicapping perspective. Tomorrow is only his 8th lifetime start, and Educate could possibly be much better than his 8lb rise incurred for that last success. He seems to travel powerfully during his races, with ground and trip looking ideal, and a strong probability Doncaster will also be favorable from his draw. The yard is another looking to be well forward, and has had a decent strike rate already this month, and 10-1 looks big given the facts. Our Jonathan takes up his engagement in the 14.30, and he also at 10-1 looks a little on the high side given the fact he was bordering on group class in his last summer campaign. All of his seasonal debuts to date have been solid enough runs, his latest one being a winning one in a similar trappy listed contest as tomorrows. Although he has not won at Donny he seems to handle the track, as well as the ground, and has his chance in a competitive little race. The Lincoln is as ever ultra competitive, and my short list was a third of the field, but saying that for E.W. purposes Dubai Dynamo has really got my attention, looking to have been teed up nicely for a crack at a Doncaster race, last week it would have been The Spring Mile, this week fate has given him a chance at the big un. His last couple of prep runs have been as good as they get for him, and after being slowly away in last years race and never in a challenging position did reasonably well to finish s credible 9th. As alluded to he looks to be much more forward this season in relation to his recent couple of spins, and Ruth Carr probably knows this horse better than the back of her hand, and more than capable of getting a tune out of this old horse. |
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Bet day 90. 50p E.W. Lucky 15.
Bandy Bob 14.20 Muss 22-1 Keep It Dark 14.50 Muss 14-1 Macca’s Lad 15.25 Fairyhouse 20-1 The Bull Hayes 15.50 Muss 14-1 Originally I was just going to have a few quid E.W. on Macca’s Lad in the big handicap at Fairyhouse, however having monitored the markets, combined with a couple of note book horses I’ve also decided to have an E.W. Lucky 15 for the thread, and here’s why…. The first race at Musselburgh was the one that I was simply monitoring regarding the betting last night, and after seeing money come for a number of horses my thought were to steer clear. However there was one horse that was attracting money at very big odds despite running wrong at the weights, and due to go down in the handicap from Monday, that horse being Bandy Bob. The horse appears to be no world beater, but I personally think he may benefit from a change of tactics regarding his riding, looking like a horse they have been hell bent on learning to settle, with limited success. In his penultimate start over 9F at Wolverhampton he seemed to plug on throughout the last few furlongs, giving the impression he still had running left in him but not the gears to deliver it fully. He did look in desperate need of his last run over 12 on the same track after a break, and coming back to the turf with a more prominent display could see vast improvement in a race with plenty others with big questions to answer regarding a winning chance. Now onto Keep It Dark trained by Tony Coyle, who looked to have had a nice prep for this race on his return to action at Southwell at the start of the week. That day the race appeared to be run at a decent clip, with more than one or two going for home with a full 4 furlongs to run, and Keep It Dark putting in a respectable effort despite his absence. Today he heads back to turf, and drops to 7F which should suit, and there are plenty in the field who are able to put pace to the race, which again should assist his cause. David Simmonson again takes off a valuable 7lbs, and it would not be the biggest surprise to see him dispense of his maiden tag in this contest. Now over to the emerald isle for their big handicap of the day where Macca’s Lad looks to be back in grade where he has a much more realistic chance of getting involved than his previous contest. Saying that his connections may heave wanted to get some more hurdling experience at racing pace onto the CV prior to this race, and in taking in that contest Lto was probably a sure fire way of doing so without compromising his mark, as well as picking up a small amount of prize money to cover the diesel etc. His penultimate run was over 23F on course, and stepped up his form markedly on anything he had previously achieved in that sphere. It may have only been a 0-109 handicap, and the winning distance a mere neck, but take into consideration he tanked his way clear turning in and almost looked bored for lack of company, once joined the horse picked up again and looked to be going away at the finish, with binoculars needed for the third home. He has not got many miles on the clock for an 8yrold and it’s fair to say improvement could still be on the cards. Now back to Scotland for the concluding leg of the bet, and another of Tony Coyle’s charges has caught the eye. The Bull Hayes may well have been flattered by his runner up position Lto in the class 2 conditions event he took in, but I’m not convinced that was the case. He seems to be a much happier horse with cut in the ground, with the suggestion Musselburgh will be fairly testing today. He has been put up a few pounds in the handicap for that good second, but in the grand scheme of things could still be very well handicapped today. He gets this trip very well on the level, and at his double figured odds may prove half decent E.W. value. |
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therobster27 great effort today
shame about the Irish one out of the frame .... good luck |
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* just out of the frame
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Result(s) day 89 & 90
1.00 E.W. L15 1 winner 1 place return 36.65p 50p E.W. L15 0 winners 2 placed return 16.00p Profit / Loss + 7.65p Total 602.12p Would of been nice if the Irish one had of squeezed in Virgin, just didn't get home  |
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Bet day 103. 50p E.W. Lucky 15.
Ingelby Spirit 14.55 Doncaster 18-1 Farlow 15.30 Doncaster 28-1 Tres Coronas 16.05 11-1 Shalone 16.30 Uttoxeter 25-1 With B365 all BOG, 2 x odds 1 winner….. Having been really busy on a weekend of late, it was nice to be able to have decent peruse of the cards yesterday evening and again this morning, and I believe the above quartet may add to my profit on this thread, and here’s why…. Ingelby Spirit, it’s arguable he may not stay 12F on the flat, but did win a 10F Pontefract handicap a couple of April’s ago in the manner that suggested he should, having been ridden positively that he stayed on up the hill very well off his mark of 86. His last couple of spins on the level he has been held up off the pace and in truth looked to be going through the motions. He has subsequently ran some nice races over timber (his last race at Newbury coming to soon), and in his previous campaign had some good form on better ground. Richard Fahey pops an apprentice on board that can relieve the mark of a further 7lbs, and has at least an inside stall to jump from if they decide to have him prominent, and could sneak a place on a going day. Farlow, I liked him Lto but may have been a little premature in selecting him, having won a handicap on his second start in his last 2 campaigns. All of his best runs have come on better ground than he encountered Lto here, as showing last year over C/D. He is one of many in the race that has form to be there or thereabouts, and given the fact he seems a spring / summer horse, coupled with his early season improving profile and liking of better ground, it is somewhat surprising to see him such a big double figured rag in a race he undoubtedly is capable of figuring prominently in. Tres Coronas is another I like Lto, thinking he is a very well handicapped horse presently. Like Farlow he most definitely needed that run Lto, and is another that has a decent strike rate 2nd time out. He has won 3 times 2nd time out from his last 4 seasons, and is at least 7lbs better off with Beaumont’s Party for their last encounter. He is another drawn well and seems adaptable as far as ground goes, and should be primed to give it a good go later today. Shalone, is yet another I liked Lto, and like a couple above look’s a very well handicapped animal. He was amateur ridden for his latest start, and it was a much better race than today’s contest. That day he traveled powerfully into the contest over 25f on decent ground, and I actually thought he was going to be involved in the finish on the turn into the straight. Sadly he went out like a light, and seemed to loose his action before being pulled up. Today he comes back markedly in trip which should suit, and has winning form from his only attempt on course. The stable have a history of setting a one up for a tilt, has this one been teed up for a punt?? Only time will tell, but I think he is capable of hitting the frame if his problems have been smoothed out. |
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Good start therobster.
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top top tipping rob
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M8 |